Ming-Chi Kuo: 2023 iPhones to switch to USB-C

[poochyena]

I hope its true. When I go to thrift store I always see huge bundles of completely outdated proprietary cables for that was likely only used for one or two devices. So much e-waste. No reason to need a new cable for every new device you get.

4 hours ago, RejZoR said:

If EU will force them to use USB-C on everything, they'll use it on everything. Using 2 separate SKU's for different markets would be highly inefficient for the volumes Apple is designing/producing.

But they already DO have separate SKUs, right? "Versions: A2633 (International); A2482 (USA); A2631 (Canada, Japan); A2634 (China, Hong Kong); A2635 (Russia)" https://www.gsmarena.com/apple_iphone_13-11103.php

 

 

[RejZoR]

12 minutes ago, poochyena said:

I hope its true. When I go to thrift store I always see huge bundles of completely outdated proprietary cables for that was likely only used for one or two devices. So much e-waste. No reason to need a new cable for every new device you get.

But they already DO have separate SKUs, right? "Versions: A2633 (International); A2482 (USA); A2631 (Canada, Japan); A2634 (China, Hong Kong); A2635 (Russia)" https://www.gsmarena.com/apple_iphone_13-11103.php

 

 

They are different in name and minor changes, they don't have entirely different charging ports... Probably only difference in radios because of regional signal differences and software requirements like all the China's nonsense. Physical design is probably the same.

[poochyena]

Just now, RejZoR said:

They are different in name and minor changes, they don't have entirely different charging ports... Probably only difference in radios because of regional signal differences and software requirements like all the China's nonsense. Physical design is probably the same.

I don't see how the charging port isn't equally as minor of those other changes

[PeachGr]

1 hour ago, Commodus said:

revolutionizing what's actually very common tech

They have made many things comon that were nich, like Bluetooth headphones, good laptop screens, stylish phones and laptops, tablets etc, but it's a joke that they'll rename everything, like retina display and many many more products. I also hope for USB c, cuz I m thinking if switching to iPhone next time that I ll be on the market for a smartphone

[Commodus]

36 minutes ago, PeachGr said:

They have made many things comon that were nich, like Bluetooth headphones, good laptop screens, stylish phones and laptops, tablets etc, but it's a joke that they'll rename everything, like retina display and many many more products. I also hope for USB c, cuz I m thinking if switching to iPhone next time that I ll be on the market for a smartphone

Well, that's true... but Apple isn't alone, and "Retina Display" is definitely easier to swallow than "high DPI display where pixels are hard to distinguish." 

[cmndr]

1 hour ago, poochyena said:

I don't see how the charging port isn't equally as minor of those other changes

swapping a chip for another chip with an identical pin out and virtually identical size is different from swapping out two non-identically sized parts and retooling the machinery for the casing.

[RejZoR]

1 hour ago, poochyena said:

I don't see how the charging port isn't equally as minor of those other changes

Other stuff generally isn't physically different and is done on same production lines. To handle entirely different connector type you have to adapt entire segment of charging port assembly process. And because they are of different shape, shape of phone's chassis port is also different. And that complicates things dramatically since the phone's chassis is milled and not extruded. Producing two different milled chassis is ridiculously expensive with no benefit.

[Helpful Tech Witch]

5 hours ago, Neoxon said:

I'm pretty sure the iPhone is too small to properly cool an M1 chip.

im sure a m1 could still do work with 5w powerlimit....

 

i think the issue is physical size on the m1, it migh tbe litterally too big to fit in the iphone wihtout making something smaller (like the battery)

[Helpful Tech Witch]

1 hour ago, RejZoR said:

They are different in name and minor changes, they don't have entirely different charging ports... Probably only difference in radios because of regional signal differences and software requirements like all the China's nonsense. Physical design is probably the same.

actually no iirc. 
most also have different internal antenna layouts. That means different constructions.

 

 

But the charging port being swapped is a big deal, thats new pcbs, new conectors, and a different frame (the usbc hole has to be bigger than the lightning one

[Obioban]

54 minutes ago, Helpful Tech Wiard said:

im sure a m1 could still do work with 5w powerlimit....

 

i think the issue is physical size on the m1, it migh tbe litterally too big to fit in the iphone wihtout making something smaller (like the battery)

More importantly, why? The M1 is an almost two year old chip designed for computer thermal envelopes/power constraints. The A_ is a new chip optimized for phone use, that is consistently significantly faster than the fastest contemporary android chip, and uses less power. Why do people want to downgrade the iPhone so much, but using an M1?

[Neoxon]

1 hour ago, Obioban said:

More importantly, why? The M1 is an almost two year old chip designed for computer thermal envelopes/power constraints. The A_ is a new chip optimized for phone use, that is consistently significantly faster than the fastest contemporary android chip, and uses less power. Why do people want to downgrade the iPhone so much, but using an M1?

Exactly, they can just add a Thunderbolt controller to the A17 if that’s the concern.

[captain_to_fire]

8 hours ago, Obioban said:

I suspect the vast majority of "normal people" are going to be super annoyed their lightning cables no longer work.

 

I heard complaints from ALL of my non tech people friends when Apple moved from 30 pin to lightning, and 30 pin was a junk connector (and lightning is pretty great). This is going to piss them off more.

Makes me think that instead of switching to usb c, they'll just include a lightning to usb c dongle in the box

[Fnige]

3 hours ago, Helpful Tech Wiard said:

im sure a m1 could still do work with 5w powerlimit....

 

i think the issue is physical size on the m1, it migh tbe litterally too big to fit in the iphone wihtout making something smaller (like the battery)

you know that the M series chips are literally just beefed up A series chips?

[Neoxon]

1 hour ago, captain_to_fire said:

Makes me think that instead of switching to usb c, they'll just include a lightning to usb c dongle in the box

That's not allowed under the mandate, the USB-C port has to be on the phone itself. Apple tried that exact dongle-based loophole years ago when the push for a standardized charger was more of a request than a hard rule, & the EU weren't happy about it.

[Kisai]

12 hours ago, hishnash said:

does the EU regulation even require apple to support data transfer at all? I could well see them running the same usb speeds as lightning. 

 

 

It will require Apple to rethink/abandon a few of their proprietary (eg the crappy HDMI-lightning dongle) trash products that only work on the iphone, but I think I'm in the same boat as a lot of other people where we only own maybe 1-3 lightning accessories (eg charging cable, headphones, hdmi dongle) and are reluctant to buy anything that isn't USB-C for precisely this reason.

 

Hell, I still have a 10 year old iPad with the 30-pin connector, I didn't upgrade that either primarily as it was my "first iOS" device and I couldn't justify replacing it until there was a USB-C model, which ... oh... came out in 2020, and then I moved the bar for both the iphone and ipad replacements to "Until 5G is available in Canada, and both are USB-C."

 

https://www.apple.com/ca/ipad/compare/?modelList=ipad-pro-12-9-5th-gen,ipad-air-5th-gen,ipad-air-3rd-gen

Quote

Data plan required. 5G, Gigabit LTE, Gigabit-class LTE, LTE Advanced, LTE and Wi-Fi calling are available in select markets and through select carriers. Speeds are based on theoretical throughput and vary based on site conditions and carrier.

https://www.apple.com/ca/iphone/cellular/

Quote

Canada:

 

• iPhone 13 Pro
• Model A2636

 

• iPhone 13 Pro Max
• Model A2641

 

• iPhone 13
• Model A2631

 

• iPhone 13 mini
• Model A2626

 

• iPhone SE
• Model A2595

I'm not sure why the US and the Canada/Guam/Mexico model are different, but reportedly this is the mmWave 5G feature being nerfed on non-US models. Which incidentally Ming-Chi-Kuo was wrong about. Likely due to there being no mmWave 5G access this year. While I won't hold my breath for mmWave 5G, I also would prefer to buy a model that has it, which means if I want to "futureproof" that, I may buy an iphone/ipad in the US rather than in Canada. So if I hold out for USB-C that would be a reasonable time to do so. 

 

So I would probably predict some lukewarm sales of the iphone 14 from people waiting for USB-C, and only people who actually have a large investment in Lightning accessories to really complain about it. It's also possible that Apple may release models with both or EU models with USB-C and ROW(Rest-of-world) models with Lightning.

 

After all it's stupid to make so many variations of colors, memory capacity, in addition to physical features, because them you fall into the "trim level" scam that cars sales have, where you pay for the base model, but had you paid a little bit more you would have got that feature that makes the car 10x more enjoyable to drive, but if you want that trim level you have to order the car to be built with it, otherwise, pick the color the dealership has.

 

[hishnash]

33 minutes ago, Kisai said:

It will require Apple to rethink/abandon a few of their proprietary (eg the crappy HDMI-lightning dongle) trash products that only work on the iphone, but I think I'm in the same boat as a lot of other people where we only own maybe 1-3 lightning accessories (eg charging cable, headphones, hdmi dongle) and are reluctant to buy anything that isn't USB-C for precisely this reason.

I think there would be a very good chance apple would just put the phsycila USB-C port but still have it basicly run lighting for the data protocol so things like a custom HDMI dongle would still be needed... doing this lets them reduce the cost of the parts within the phone. 

Also I would not be surprised if the USB-C port does to support analog headphone mode so most USB-C mobile phone headphones would not work and you will need to get a dongle with an active DAC in it (costly)..  yes USB-C spec is this broken that there are multiple ways you can handle audio over it... even in the digital space there are multiple further ways to handle audio i expect Appel would just bother with one of them so 95% of USB-C DACs would not work either...

USB-C as a standard is so fragmented and full of 'optional' garbage that it is a really band standard to require.. its just going to lead to a shitsorm of confused users who have no idea why this cable charges the phone at 1/2 the speed or not at all and that charger will with that cable but not the other one... by making basically everything optional they have made a completely broken spec for non-tecy consumers, at least with lighting it was clear if the cable you had would work or not.

[WhitetailAni]

11 hours ago, RejZoR said:

M1 is actually based on Bionic chip. I'm not 100% sure right now if it's A12 or A13, but somewhere there.

M1 is based on A14, I think M1 Pro/Max/Ultra are based on A15, or just more improvements on M1.

[AlTech]

12 hours ago, RejZoR said:

M1 is actually based on Bionic chip. I'm not 100% sure right now if it's A12 or A13, but somewhere there.

Bionic is just a marketing part of the chip name to signify the presence of a neural engine.

 

M1 is based on the A14 architecture but has a significantly higher TDP than A14 or A15 because it is in essence an A14X equivalent chip but called M1.

 

8 hours ago, cmndr said:

Just clock it slower...

The amount of clock speed Apple would need to reduce it by would make it not worth using. Think maybe around 1GHz or less than 1GHz.

 

The single core perf would be abysmal.

 

Apple has a formula they stick to for iPhones because it gives them anazing IPC for a smartphone whilst giving great multi core perf and being incredible efficient. The formula being 2x High perf cores which match or exceed 4 android high perf cores along with 4 low power cores that are 3-4x faster than android low power cores.

8 hours ago, cmndr said:

With that said, for the BOM costs that Apple likes to target and the performance needs of a phone, something smaller and cheaper probably works better.

I mean that too but the mainline A series chips are designed specifically for iPhones.

 

The M series or the previous A_X series have a TDP about 2-3x too high for an iPhone to use.  The iPhone TDP being 2-3W or less and iPad TDP being around 5W to 8W.

[thechinchinsong]

I guess I can finally switch to iPhone in 2023.

[RejZoR]

2 hours ago, thechinchinsong said:

I guess I can finally switch to iPhone in 2023.

You won't. Just Lightning connector wasn't the reason you didn't buy iPhone so far. And neither will USB-C suddenly be the reason to decide for one.

[Commodus]

13 hours ago, thechinchinsong said:

I guess I can finally switch to iPhone in 2023.

I do wonder how many holdouts will buy an iPhone with USB-C in mind. Probably not a huge amount, but it does eliminate one of those "I won't buy an iPhone until..." checklist items.

[RejZoR]

1 minute ago, Commodus said:

I do wonder how many holdouts will buy an iPhone with USB-C in mind. Probably not a huge amount, but it does eliminate one of those "I won't buy an iPhone until..." checklist items.

The thing is, Lightning isn't as big of a deal or downside as some people make it seem to be. Prior iPhone XR that I have now, I never owned anything Apple. All the cables I needed came with the device. Just like USB-C devices come with those. Experience wasn't any different than with USB-C phone that I had before.

[lostcattears]

Looks like I will be keeping my iphone 7 plus for 1 more year then...

[Commodus]

36 minutes ago, RejZoR said:

The thing is, Lightning isn't as big of a deal or downside as some people make it seem to be. Prior iPhone XR that I have now, I never owned anything Apple. All the cables I needed came with the device. Just like USB-C devices come with those. Experience wasn't any different than with USB-C phone that I had before.

Eh, there are increasingly bottlenecks. The most conspicuous examples are with videos — transferring a 4K ProRes video (or 8K from the iPhone 14, presumably) is agonizingly slow over Lightning, and Wi-Fi isn't realistic in some scenarios. It's a bit odd to sell a "Pro" phone where pros have trouble sharing videos as part of their workflow.

 

It's not calamitous that Apple has stuck with Lightning for so long, but we shouldn't pretend it was entirely justified in doing so, either. It's a decade-old connector built for a time when 1080p video was relatively new and multi-gig apps were rare.

[RejZoR]

14 minutes ago, Commodus said:

Eh, there are increasingly bottlenecks. The most conspicuous examples are with videos — transferring a 4K ProRes video (or 8K from the iPhone 14, presumably) is agonizingly slow over Lightning, and Wi-Fi isn't realistic in some scenarios. It's a bit odd to sell a "Pro" phone where pros have trouble sharing videos as part of their workflow.

 

It's not calamitous that Apple has stuck with Lightning for so long, but we shouldn't pretend it was entirely justified in doing so, either. It's a decade-old connector built for a time when 1080p video was relatively new and multi-gig apps were rare.

That is a bit weird, although USB-C by itself doesn't mean it'll have high speeds. It's just connector type that can still communicate at USB 2.0 speeds. Lightning was actually first reversible connector released and mass adopted way before USB-C, but it's weird that Apple never expanded it in terms of speed. In my case, it doesn't matter as I don't record 4K videos at all, but for someone who does it surely is annoying. I basically only need cable for charging, all the photos are synced to my own cloud.