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corona virus

Letgomyleghoe
By Letgomyleghoe
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ATTENTION: there is a covid 19 F@H event happening, you can find it HERE.

 

this is a good opportunity to help with research!

SansVarnic
Message added by SansVarnic

Due to the nature of this topic, please keep cool heads and conversation On Topic.

Intentional Derailing, Political Rhetoric, or Arguing will result in removal of comments/replies and warnings issued.

 

The "No politics" rule will be enforced even harder. This will be last warning you get. If someone posts any political rhetoric (about parties, ideology, policy etc.), you will receive PM from moderator telling to step off the thread. As forum does not have functionality to do it better ways. If you continue to post ANYTHING after receiving PM, you will get warnings for not following staff instructions.

Posting news about what governments in your parts of world do in order to act on this crisis is fine, but will be looked case-by-case. (Updated 03/19/2020)

 

Remember the core values of this forum;

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  • Ensure a friendly atmosphere to our visitors and forum members.
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  • "Don't be a dick" - Wil Wheaton.
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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, FakeCIA said:

Give the fish soap. They've been talking dirty.

ok... ok...  You don't say... Just imagine all what the fish are doing in the water... Definitely needs some soap!!

monsieur-propre-est-mort-L-1.jpeg

 

 

Spoiler

tenor.gif?itemid=4905604

?

Edited by Guest
Crap! Posted before I finished writing :-S
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Posted (edited)

- Politics removed -

***

 

Speaking of the virus I haven't seen this one being any more lethal than the common flu has per capita/number of folks dying from it - Yet.

Now - If you have 30-60% (Estimated) of all that gets it period dropping it's a real problem (Black Plague). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death

Nasty stuff.

 

If I do get it I'll keep to myself in my home until it passes or I do, not gonna worry about it to much otherwise because life goes on anyway.

 

Edited by LogicalDrm

"If you ever need anything please don't hesitate to ask someone else first"..... Nirvana
"Whadda ya mean I ain't kind? Just not your kind"..... Megadeth
Speaking of things being "All Inclusive", Hell itself is too.
 

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Posted

Linus has spoken.

There's a hoarding run on badminton birds in Vancouver, Canada.

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Posted
Just now, Canoe said:

Linus has spoken.

There's a hoarding run on badminton birds in Vancouver, Canada.

?????

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Posted
1 hour ago, Canoe said:

Linus has spoken.

There's a hoarding run on badminton birds in Vancouver, Canada.

Is this like the old Pokemon game where you gotta catch them all?

"If you ever need anything please don't hesitate to ask someone else first"..... Nirvana
"Whadda ya mean I ain't kind? Just not your kind"..... Megadeth
Speaking of things being "All Inclusive", Hell itself is too.
 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Canoe said:

Linus has spoken.

There's a hoarding run on badminton birds in Vancouver, Canada.

Ah shit. They caught me.

 

 

 

 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Canoe said:

Linus has spoken.

There's a hoarding run on badminton birds in Vancouver, Canada.

Me engliche note goud enouf!

Wat doz it miin?

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Posted
1 minute ago, Beerzerker said:

... Speaking of the virus I haven't seen this one being any more lethal than the common flu has per capita/number of folks dying from it - Yet. ...

With the flu around 0.1%, and the numbers available show Covid-19 appears to be around 2%, ...

Ignoring that Covid-19 is more contagious than the flu, take the 14,000 flu deaths so far this season (last I looked last week...), that would be 14K x 20, for 280,000.

I don't know how to factor in the varying R0.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Me engliche note goud enouf!

Wat doz it miin?

A small point in the latest Linus Tech Tips video

 

From 7:08

 

 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Canoe said:

Different levels of reporting.

Plus, different standards of charting, charting under chaos, disclosure policies, and so on.

See the CSSE leaderboard dashboard for the gathered Confirmed, Deaths and Recovered.

So no open datas besides those that you had specified.. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Xvaster said:

So no open datas besides those that you had specified.. 

I listed what is available at the highest level of summary.

See the WHO site or the various studies to see what they're getting form the data they've be able to get so far.

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1 hour ago, Canoe said:

I listed what is available at the highest level of summary.

See the WHO site or the various studies to see what they're getting form the data they've be able to get so far.

There's also a few sources like the VOA and CIA World Factbook that you can pull info from. There are links to the respective sites in my Pentagon article update and from my previous comments here.

 

 

 

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Canoe said:

In short, the article is largely a meaningless, obvious or already underway, bunch of words disguised as wisdom. But the graphic is interesting. As it shows the range, it's not relevant if their irrelevant article got the numbers wrong. 

 

 

1463856269_CovidSeveritygraph1500x1000.thumb.jpg.8e389931bb6dec9c27b55ef7b3748cf6.jpg

Look here Mister!! I found another one !!!!   (But not meaningless ? ) ?

 

graph.jpg.5aa661bff6ceaf98c808cd9d595d8376.jpg

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html

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Posted (edited)

- Politics removed -

 

B.O.T. :

The virus so far hasn't had the lethality of past events by the numbers but it could mutate and become a real problem - Let's hope not.

Edited by LogicalDrm

"If you ever need anything please don't hesitate to ask someone else first"..... Nirvana
"Whadda ya mean I ain't kind? Just not your kind"..... Megadeth
Speaking of things being "All Inclusive", Hell itself is too.
 

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Posted

This is why we need to watch movies like this.  To remind others about how about germs and viruses can get.

 

"Whatever happens, happens." - Spike Spiegel

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Posted

Let's bring this back around to the topic at hand, yes? Someone made a simulation of the coronavirus spread on the custom event mode in Plague Inc based off of current data. It allows you to see the projected path. Be aware that it is not an official simulation in any event.

 

 

 

 

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Posted

South Korea now at 3,526

61,037 tested negative

32,422 tests underway

 

image.thumb.png.9eccedee0de2735f65b1636fa16e7bba.png

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Posted

Today's contributors

 

Mainland China 607 79825
South Korea 595 3526
Italy 239 1128
Iran 205 593
France 43 100
Germany 31 79
Spain 13 45
Norway 9 15
Japan 7 241
Sweden 7 18
Singapore 6 102
US 6 26
Canada 5 20
Iraq 5 13
Netherlands 5 6
Taiwan 5 39
Austria 3 9
Bahrain 3 41
UK 3 23
Lebanon 2 4
Malaysia 2 25
Oman 2 6
Pakistan 2 4
United Arab Emirates 2 21
Croatia 1 6
Finland 1 3
Luxembourg 1 1
Mexico 1 3
Qatar 1 1
Thailand 1 42
30 1813  

 

***

 

1346935123_Covid-19TOP2020-02-29plusDP.thumb.png.1bd769714ecc7e063becb39684eb0540.png

284527801_Covid-19TOP4DP2020-02-29.thumb.png.a7d058864447a405247d27993a6fc1f7.png

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Posted (edited)

Wait...the UAE and Qatar are hit? I thought they were cleared by the UN.

 

Just saw updated feed on my side, nevermind.

Edited by FakeCIA

 

 

 

 

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Posted

UAE has been in the data since Jan 29

Qatar is new

Azerbaijan was in it twice for a while

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Posted

The italian strain of SARS-Cov-2 has been isolated.

 

It seems it arrived in Italy in mid-January and then happily visited different bodies and mutated in our 38yo friend in Codogno. The one who infected both is wife, his friend and the customers of the bar they were having dinner at and later all the nurses and doctors at the hospital in Codogno and also all those in the Cluster in Veneto where he ran the marathon.

 

Then 2 versions are published, either it mutated and spread more widely (wildely ??) and actively, or it remained unnoticed for several weeks until they started to actively (frenetically?) test everyone.

 

I found both versions of the story, which one is right is not clear yet.

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Posted (edited)

 

- Politics removed -

 

On 3/1/2020 at 4:41 AM, Cora_Lie said:

The italian strain of SARS-Cov-2 has been isolated.

 

It seems it arrived in Italy in mid-January and then happily visited different bodies and mutated in our 38yo friend in Codogno. The one who infected both is wife, his friend and the customers of the bar they were having dinner at and later all the nurses and doctors at the hospital in Codogno and also all those in the Cluster in Veneto where he ran the marathon.

 

Then 2 versions are published, either it mutated and spread more widely (wildely ??) and actively, or it remained unnoticed for several weeks until they started to actively (frenetically?) test everyone.

 

I found both versions of the story, which one is right is not clear yet.

Which is bad because it's like the bug is a chamelion, constantly changing as it goes.
With the cases on the west coast (Cali and so on) there is no "Known" patient zero to explain how it got there.

Not yet that we know of anyway.

 

Edited by LogicalDrm

"If you ever need anything please don't hesitate to ask someone else first"..... Nirvana
"Whadda ya mean I ain't kind? Just not your kind"..... Megadeth
Speaking of things being "All Inclusive", Hell itself is too.
 

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Posted
On 3/1/2020 at 5:42 AM, Beerzerker said:

... With the cases on the west coast (Cali and so on) there is no "Known" patient zero to explain how it got there.

Not yet that we know of anyway.

Same as it was in Italy.

 

On 3/1/2020 at 4:41 AM, Cora_Lie said:

The italian strain of SARS-Cov-2 has been isolated.  It seems it arrived in Italy in mid-January ...

Then 2 versions are published, either it mutated and spread more widely (wildely ??) and actively, or it remained unnoticed for several weeks until they started to actively (frenetically?) test everyone.

I found both versions of the story, which one is right is not clear yet.

Arrived in mid-January is actually very good news (compared to the alternate). The second is most likely: a seeded undetected cluster, detected once its count was high enough. It fits the long lead in time (up to a month and a half) observed so far in the seeding and clusters in China. Flu season would hinder its detection, as all the mild cases would assume the flu. Now that (near) everyone is alerted, moderate and higher cases should get detected quickly, and hopefully expanded testing (as appears to be occurring in Italy) will catch the mild too.

 

Had it arrived in mid February, it would suggest a super-spreader, which would be very bad news. No super-spreaders so far, just a few super-spreading events. 

 

(checked data) Yup. Climbing slowly, until Feb. 20th when the case count picked up significantly.

  • In Singapore, they appear to have caught theirs in time.
  • In Italy, it's likely to have seeded further around Italy, and in turn further afar.
  • Like the seeding around China, then multiple clusters outbreaking.

It would also explain all of the Italian-originating Import cases turning up around the world. With enough spread in Italy, there's enough travellers taking it around, and heightened import/export screening is catching them sooner than prior to that screening.

 

Means all arriving from Italy since ____? should get screened.

 

I hope that fit is what happened.

 

Italy is dark blue

image.thumb.png.d2f196b97ba72ed87675039139bf9249.png

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Posted

I missed that but yeah, that does make how it's getting around so fast all the more a threat..... Or mystery?

Probrably both and they'd best figure it out fast.

 

Doesn't help it's jumped to animals too, that could be how it's just appearing in different places.

"If you ever need anything please don't hesitate to ask someone else first"..... Nirvana
"Whadda ya mean I ain't kind? Just not your kind"..... Megadeth
Speaking of things being "All Inclusive", Hell itself is too.
 

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On 3/1/2020 at 6:34 AM, Beerzerker said:

I missed that but yeah, that does make how it's getting around so fast all the more a threat..... Or mystery?

Probrably both and they'd best figure it out fast.

 

Doesn't help it's jumped to animals too, that could be how it's just appearing in different places.

There is no evidence it has jumped back to animals. There's one allegation. And it's being investigated. Early on they wanted to address potential zoonotic sources in order to access the likelihood of additional outbreaks of the same or similar coronavirus. They'd already determined that in some animals, SARS-CoV-2 can breakdown the ACE2 receptor, a first step required to infect the cell, but it's unknown if it can infect the cell. Then it would have to be able to sustain such an infection in the animal, and be capable of transferring back to humans, then it would be a potential source of infecting humans.

 

There's no mystery about how it's getting around. Infected people travel and then infect others. The difficulty is a high percentage of those infected have very mild symptoms. That it is believed there may be a unknown number of infected who get extremely mild symptoms. Then there's the incubation period, where people are asymptomatic, they have no symptoms. They travel. Early in the incubation, studies have shown they start shedding viruses, and at some point, enough that they can infect, as per the know and published Transmission paths.

 

The asymptomatic infected that was concerning is now believed to be:

  • those who are incubating as most eventually present with the disease symptoms,
  • those infected who have lessened symptoms and a series of negative tests before levels rise enough that they get a positive test again (those were initially feared to be re-infected), and
  • a few very rare who are truly asymptomatic infected; but I don't know how they discern that from those with extremely mild symptoms.

P.S.

The knowledge is still very young and very dynamic. There is a lot that is not yet nailed down.

 

***

 

Ecuador has joined

 

Quote

Ecuador’s Health Minister Catalina Andramuño Zeballos said a 70-year-old Ecuadoran woman who lives in Spain arrived in the country on Feb. 14 showing no symptoms of illness.

“In the following days she began to feel badly with a fever,” Andramuño said at a news conference, adding that she was taken to a medical center. The National Institute of Public Health and Investigation in Ecuador confirmed the virus.

The deputy minister of health, Julio López said that the patient’s condition was “critical.”

 

***

 

Quote

 

MEXICO CITY >> Operators of a British cruise ship that was turned away from its destination due to fears of the new coronavirus said today they have chartered planes to ferry passengers home — but don’t yet have permission to dock anywhere.

The Braemar, which had been scheduled to disembark its hundreds of passengers in the Dominican Republic on Friday, was still cruising through the Caribbean more than a day later, with no immediate word on where it might wind up.

 

https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/02/29/breaking-news/coronavirus-fears-keep-hundreds-of-british-cruise-passengers-at-sea/

 

A friend wants to go visit Australia. Thinks this may not be the best time, but notes that flights are cheaper now.

Wasn't amused at my suggestion that cruises are really cheap right now, and he might end up in Australia.

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