Intel's 7nm is broken, company announces delay until 2022, 2023

[pas008]

10 minutes ago, CTR640 said:

While this is bad news and probably for us as customers, Intel deserves it. They've been way too cocky, too arrogant, too ignorant, too proud, too greedy and too lazy it's time to get in deep trouble to wake up and start getting serious.

 

I was just wondering about something right now: what about Jim Keller? Does it has something to do with all this shit?

Jim left for personal or unknown reason so suddenly, not sure if there is a conflict between those all.

Its really not bad news yet 

Bad news is when they are producing products that dont sell and right now they are selling everything

[CTR640]

Just now, pas008 said:

Its really not bad news yet 

Bad news is when they are producing products that dont sell and right now they are selling everything

Ye, thought so. Intel is still making $$$ so why is this a bad news? Media made it up?

[5x5]

2 minutes ago, pas008 said:

Its really not bad news yet 

Bad news is when they are producing products that dont sell and right now they are selling everything

No they aren't. Not on desktop anyway. During the time 120 Ryzen 3600 units sold here locally, intel sold 19 CPUs. Total. Thats insanely bad as every single Ryzen 3000 model is outselling Intels total units shipped. That's also reflected in the data by mindfactory, so my country is not an isolated incident. We've also had reports of similar situations in Russia and the UK. Intel isnt selling and the reasons are many but the main one is value.

[S w a t s o n]

I just bought some more AMD. If you're smart you'll long AMD and TSMC after this shitshow of an announcement. Intel is officially fucked until 2023

[porina]

5 hours ago, 5x5 said:

Mark my words, you will NOT see anything but 14nm+++++ up until the second half of 2022 AND weay even get a Broadwell-style cancellation of the gen after Rocket Lake.

I only just noticed a detail I missed in all the Intel news of the last day or so. Intel have stated Alder Lake on 10nm will be coming 2H 2021 on both mobile and desktop. I didn't expect that, as I thought that would be the timeframe for Rocket Lake. The new question then is, when do we get Rocket Lake? Early next year perhaps, to allow Alder Lake to drop in at the end? Or can they bring it forward to have something to go against Zen 3? Of course, they could also be late, like everything else they planned on 10nm.

[5x5]

Quote

 

Look at the IPC of Sunny Cove as used in Ice Lake mobile. It provides tangible uplift over Skylake. I'd love to see it on desktop, but doesn't seem like we're getting it until Rocket Lake next year, even then on 14nm. They have Willow Cove as a successor in the pipeline. They're not standing still on the design side. For the majority here it isn't very visible since we mostly care about desktop, which seems to be Intel's lowest priority right now.

 

 

Ice Lake clocks lower than Zen+ - it's a VERY fucked design and is likely never coming to desktop because it would be laughed out of the market. Willow Cove is still more concept than fact.

 

5 minutes ago, porina said:

I only just noticed a detail I missed in all the Intel news of the last day or so. Intel have stated Alder Lake on 10nm will be coming 2H 2021 on both mobile and desktop. I didn't expect that, as I thought that would be the timeframe for Rocket Lake. The new question then is, when do we get Rocket Lake? Early next year perhaps, to allow Alder Lake to drop in at the end? Or can they bring it forward to have something to go against Zen 3? Of course, they could also be late, like everything else they planned on 10nm.

Alder Lake is probably there as an alternative to what I mentioned a while ago - that Rocket Lake's 10nm failures were causing some internally to call for it to be cancelled entirely. They're buying time to make it work on 14nm.

EDIT: Nothing on 10nm, though, trust me. 10nm is nowhere near ready for prime time. What we see on Ice Lake mobile is as good as it's possible on Ice Lake.

[pas008]

45 minutes ago, 5x5 said:

No they aren't. Not on desktop anyway. During the time 120 Ryzen 3600 units sold here locally, intel sold 19 CPUs. Total. Thats insanely bad as every single Ryzen 3000 model is outselling Intels total units shipped. That's also reflected in the data by mindfactory, so my country is not an isolated incident. We've also had reports of similar situations in Russia and the UK. Intel isnt selling and the reasons are many but the main one is value.

This been in the news many times on Intel cpu shortages

They are hoping to have it fixed this half

Geez a simple Google would tell you this

 

[5x5]

17 minutes ago, pas008 said:

This been in the news many times on Intel cpu shortages

They are hoping to have it fixed this half

Geez a simple Google would tell you this

 

There's a whole warehouse full of them here lol. It's not a shortage, people are not buying them. Talk to any store rep - they'll tell you the same thing. The shortage isn't the reason Intel are not selling. The shortages you read about mostly relate to mobile and OEM, not to custom systems.

[pas008]

4 minutes ago, 5x5 said:

There's a whole warehouse full of them here lol. It's not a shortage, people are not buying them. Talk to any store rep - they'll tell you the same thing. The shortage isn't the reason Intel are not selling. The shortages you read about mostly relate to mobile and OEM, not to custom systems.

Oh wow you seen to relate your market to the whole market lol

Do i need to link the news for you

[5x5]

1 minute ago, pas008 said:

Oh wow you seen to relate your market to the whole market lol

Do i need to link the news for you

Mindfactory has reported the EXACT same thing. They have stock. People simply don't want it. Like it or not, people are not willing to pay 50% more for 5% more performance. That's why Intel's sales are so abysmal, they dropped massive amounts of market share.

[Guest]

It’s just a process. I’d prefer benchmarks, which still seem competitive in some areas.

[pas008]

7 minutes ago, 5x5 said:

Mindfactory has reported the EXACT same thing. They have stock. People simply don't want it. Like it or not, people are not willing to pay 50% more for 5% more performance. That's why Intel's sales are so abysmal, they dropped massive amounts of market share.

Then why we they thinking about outsourcing many chips? Because shortages

They selling everything and couldn't keep demand

You think small system builders is where the money is?  No it's the mass builders like dell hp etc

 

[cj09beira]

13 hours ago, xentropa said:

AMD sucked because they had an exclusive deal with Globalfoundries for CPU manufacturing.  It was only when GLoFo gave up development on anything less than 14nm 2 years ago that AMD was free to go to TSMC.

during that time tsmc was no better than global foundries, or at least not massively so, what killed amd was the lack of money and not great management, they were pushing tech a bit too fast, when software wasn't anywhere close to ready.

6 hours ago, Mateyyy said:

That sucks, not just for Intel but also potentially for the consumers. Hopefully Intel gets their shit together before AMD could start mimicking Intel's super incremental "upgrades", because competition is key.

If Intel are still on the same 14nm process with the upcoming move to DDR5, I see AMD absolutely smoking Intel in desktop market share with AM5.

amd is several times too small to start doing that, they need to pump up the amount of cpus they make several times on the real markets that make money amd is far from selling enough chips, markets like the laptop and servers, they need to achieve a reasonable market share there, right now amd is around the 10% mark of server sales if amd is to be believed, not sure how much of the laptop market but it can't be much.

5 hours ago, gabrielcarvfer said:

Oof. Are you sure on that one?

Pretty weird they didn't have multiple options to go with from the start. I guess shareholders were upset with the idea of spending more on R&D to maintain the monopoly Intel virtually had.

The problem with complete monopolies is that the only way to increase profits is to reduce costs, even if it means worse products, as its not like the consumers have any choice, here is a pretty cool video of steve jobs on the subject:

4 hours ago, Master Disaster said:

Meanwhile AMD is currently designing/fabbing 5nm and looking even beyond that.

 

This isn't how it was supposed to happen tbh, we all wanted AMD to give Intel a good kicking but at this point AMD landed the first punch and Intel has spent the rest of the fight lying on the ground punching themselves in the face. When one company gets too far ahead it only ever hurts consumers. I just hope AMD doesn't start doing the shady shit Intel used to.

continuing what i said above for long term competition, a few years of amd domination would actually be the best for us.

1 hour ago, S w a t s o n said:

I just bought some more AMD. If you're smart you'll long AMD and TSMC after this shitshow of an announcement. Intel is officially fucked until 2023

after amd passed the 30 dollar mark, i really have no clue of how high it could be or what is too high, it seems too high already, but maybe not, , where do you expect it to be in some time? 

[5x5]

1 hour ago, pas008 said:

Then why we they thinking about outsourcing many chips? Because shortages

They selling everything and couldn't keep demand

You think small system builders is where the money is?  No it's the mass builders like dell hp etc

 

You do realize intel make a lot of other things besides CPUs, right? They also supply those products in MUCH greater quantities.

 

Also, they're outsourcing because the competitors have superior nodes, not because of volume for CPUs of all things. Do some basic research before you make a fool of yourself.

[pas008]

20 minutes ago, 5x5 said:

You do realize intel make a lot of other things besides CPUs, right? They also supply those products in MUCH greater quantities.

 

Also, they're outsourcing because the competitors have superior nodes, not because of volume for CPUs of all things. Do some basic research before you make a fool of yourself.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/amd--intel-cpu-supply-updates-amid-coronavirus-pandemic

 

https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20200117PD203.html

 

https://marketrealist.com/2019/12/intels-cpu-shortage-impact-chip-giants-pc-makers/

 

https://www.intc.com/investor-relations/investor-education-and-news/investor-news/press-release-details/2020/Intel-Reports-Second-Quarter-2020-Financial-Results/default.aspx

 

Numbers say what?

 

[S w a t s o n]

1 hour ago, cj09beira said:

after amd passed the 30 dollar mark, i really have no clue of how high it could be or what is too high, it seems too high already, but maybe not, , where do you expect it to be in some time? 

2021 could see triple digits

[CarlBar]

4 hours ago, 5x5 said:

No they aren't. Not on desktop anyway. During the time 120 Ryzen 3600 units sold here locally, intel sold 19 CPUs. Total. Thats insanely bad as every single Ryzen 3000 model is outselling Intels total units shipped. That's also reflected in the data by mindfactory, so my country is not an isolated incident. We've also had reports of similar situations in Russia and the UK. Intel isnt selling and the reasons are many but the main one is value.

 

Guess what. The majority of the desktop money is being made on OEM's, not people selling individual CPU's. And Desktop is a tiny percentage of the market, the real money is in server space. It' also where the really high volumes are.

 

TSMC also just flat out cannot manufacture enough CPU's for AMD to meet global demand. A heck of a lot of people worldwide, especially in the server space are going to be forced to go inel for quite some time to come simply because AMD can't supply everyone.

[CTR640]

4 hours ago, 5x5 said:

Mindfactory has reported the EXACT same thing. They have stock. People simply don't want it. Like it or not, people are not willing to pay 50% more for 5% more performance. That's why Intel's sales are so abysmal, they dropped massive amounts of market share.

Those stupid fucks deserves that. I too ain't paying 50% higher price for a stupid measly 5% more performance. It's called common sense.

[cj09beira]

1 hour ago, CarlBar said:

 

Guess what. The majority of the desktop money is being made on OEM's, not people selling individual CPU's. And Desktop is a tiny percentage of the market, the real money is in server space. It' also where the really high volumes are.

 

TSMC also just flat out cannot manufacture enough CPU's for AMD to meet global demand. A heck of a lot of people worldwide, especially in the server space are going to be forced to go inel for quite some time to come simply because AMD can't supply everyone.

well good news for amd is that tsmc is expanding, and kicking huawei out so they have the opportunity to buy more wafers if they think they can sell them

[leadeater]

11 hours ago, CarlBar said:

Guess what. The majority of the desktop money is being made on OEM's, not people selling individual CPU's. And Desktop is a tiny percentage of the market, the real money is in server space. It' also where the really high volumes are.

Mobile CPUs actually sell the most by far, server is just high margin but much lower volume. If you control the laptop market then you control the majority of the entire PC market, if you also control the laptop market then you will control the desktop market as businesses stick to same CPU architecture brands and consumers will just buy what the popular thing is.

 

Nobody really cares about desktops, what's in them or any other such things. Just look at all the marketing and press that exists, product samples, talking points, near as much everything is laptops and mobile devices, unless you play games you have zero interest in desktops entirely.

 

Edit:

Per quarter unit shipments:

• Laptops: over 40 million
• Desktops: under/about 20 million
• Servers: under 4 million

Edited July 25, 2020 by leadeater

[Helpful Tech Witch]

On 7/23/2020 at 4:21 PM, iBabySlapper said:

Ooof, I hope none of you own intel shares...

I was hearing about how much Intel dropped. Within a day, Intel stock dropped 16%. With this and the Zen3 IPC boost, Intel stock may take another huge hit.

[Helpful Tech Witch]

6 hours ago, CarlBar said:

Guess what. The majority of the desktop money is being made on OEM's, not people selling individual CPU's. And Desktop is a tiny percentage of the market, the real money is in server space. It' also where the really high volumes are.

But, the thing is, perception is reality. With Intel saying stuff like this, stock prices plummit. Also, even OEM's may look and go "oh, look, these better CPUs will cost us like 30$ less for the same or better preformance. GIMME!”

[mr moose]

21 minutes ago, TheTechWizardThatNeedsHelp said:

I was hearing about how much Intel dropped. Within a day, Intel stock dropped 16%. With this and the Zen3 IPC boost, Intel stock may take another huge hit.

Intel stock dropped to about 8% below current daily average.  It'll only be a problem if it continues to fall or doesn't make it back to average.  Having said that, their stock is still higher than this time last year so only time  will tell if there is actually anything in this for them.

[Helpful Tech Witch]

22 minutes ago, mr moose said:

Intel stock dropped to about 8% below current daily average.  It'll only be a problem if it continues to fall or doesn't make it back to average.  Having said that, their stock is still higher than this time last year so only time  will tell if there is actually anything in this for them

60$us to 50$us from 4pm jul 23,to 10am jul 24, a 9.81$us difference and a 16.24% drop today. Interestingly enough, AMD rose today, also by about 10$us.

[mr moose]

35 minutes ago, TheTechWizardThatNeedsHelp said:

60$us to 50$us from 4pm jul 23,to 10am jul 24, a 9.81$us difference and a 16.24% drop today. Interestingly enough, AMD rose today, also by about 10$us.

yes, but just pointing at one rise or fall of a stock means almost nothing. If you want to use stock as an indicator of company confidence/productivity/value then you have to look at longer trends than peak/trough totals (especially from one day)  going from a close of 60 to 50 means nothing if the lowest value they hit is still within the average for the trend or if the value is still higher then recent performance.  If we account for stock devaluation due to coronavirus and look at the values from this time last year to now you'll see it is still performing within the average swing.  In fact the average price for Intel stocks over the last 2 years is about $55. 

 

So as I said, only time will tell if this drop has any actual meaning or value in terms of Intel's future.

 

EDIT: just wanted to add,  if AMD stocks stay up and Intel stocks stay down then attributing longer term effects to this news is reasonable, but if they stay within the average (currently 8% below 6 monthly *napkin math*) then trying to attribute some sort of long term problem is not really possible.