(Debunked) AMD Fury X production limited to 30,000 units in 2015.

[asim1999]

With the 980 Ti out, and with the purported performance, i think it makes sense for AMD to lower their expectations if it is gonna be close the $900 mark 

[dimitriianghelov]

the first few cards are good be at normal price and then we're gonna see ebay resellers for 3x the price..

[Sakkura]

I would guess in the 50-150K range as well. Obviously 30K is going to be a problem, I was just trying to add a bit of perspective as to the scale of the potential shortcoming. 

 

Lately Nvidia have been outselling AMD about 3:1, while earlier it was typically around 2:1. So assuming AMD wants to go back to their usual market share, 30K units on their side would be equivalent to about 60K units for Nvidia. Obviously it's very iffy trying to work out how many GM200 cards Nvidia is selling, but at least it makes this news sound a little less scary.

 

On the other hand, 30K cards is only going to be on the order of 20 million in revenue (depending on pricing). Maybe that's just a sign that flagship cards are a lot less financially important than you'd think.

[Real_PhillBert]

Lately Nvidia have been outselling AMD about 3:1, while earlier it was typically around 2:1. So assuming AMD wants to go back to their usual market share, 30K units on their side would be equivalent to about 60K units for Nvidia. Obviously it's very iffy trying to work out how many GM200 cards Nvidia is selling, but at least it makes this news sound a little less scary.

 

On the other hand, 30K cards is only going to be on the order of 20 million in revenue (depending on pricing). Maybe that's just a sign that flagship cards are a lot less financially important than you'd think.

 

Just like with car companies, I would guess the flagship GPU's are not all that financially important. They are halo products, designed primarily to get people talking about the brand and looking at the offerings, not specifically to sell to everyone. 

 

The issue comes in with the start up costs for HBM, which Nvidia has not had to contend with. Add in the rumors that the rest of the line (minus one) are re-brands of existing cards, this might put AMD in a bit of a tough spot. 

 

Of coarse this is all speculation on my part. 

[atrash]

Rumours after rumours after rumours..Why even bother reporting/speculating? 

[Snadzies]

That number is meaningless with out some context on how many of similarly priced cards are sold each year (And do we even know the price? All Ive seen are rumored prices).

 

I would not be surprised if this is not enough to meet demand but will this be Wii level of shortages or just a little difficult to find.

[Texhnlyze]

Rumours after rumours after rumours..Why even bother reporting/speculating? 

 

Without it, LTT would be a boring place.

[atrash]

Without it, LTT would be a boring place.

 

I don't mind some rumours just to keep the interest of things fresh but the amount of it lately are just too much. 

[Adriel]

Or... Maybe a multi thread that's continually updated with all the rumors etc?

[Bouzoo]

@Briggsy Not to start another topic, here is a rumor that might be connected to yours

 

According to SweClockers, AMD Fury (the slower Fiji-based model) is still not ready for launch. Unlike Fury X, which is said to launch only with water-cooling solutions, Fury non-X will be available with custom boards and custom cooling solutions.

 

The reason for the Fury non-X launch delay could be related either: low yields of Fiji silicon (Fiji PRO is cut-down part), or AIB partners being in the process of developing their own custom boards. Or maybe both reasons.

 

Last but not least, they said there are no air-cooled Fury X cards planned (only water-cooled).

 

The last sentence contradicts everything we know.

 

http://videocardz.com/56251/amd-radeon-300-fury-rumors-leaks

 

http://www.sweclockers.com/nyhet/20684-radeon-fury-x-endast-med-vattenkylning-nedskalade-fury-anmals-saknad

[BiG StroOnZ]

Not enough to gain back tons of market share but enough to make a decent amount of profit:

 

Rumored price is $850

 

$850 x 30,000 units = $25,500,000

[Briggsy]

@Briggsy Not to start another topic, here is a rumor that might be connected to yours

 

 

The last sentence contradicts everything we know.

 

http://videocardz.com/56251/amd-radeon-300-fury-rumors-leaks

 

http://www.sweclockers.com/nyhet/20684-radeon-fury-x-endast-med-vattenkylning-nedskalade-fury-anmals-saknad

 

I did see that rumor, even added a note about it in the OP of this thread bout an hour ago, but didn't notice the part about Fury X only being Water cooled. Kinda makes sense since there have only been pictures of the Nano leaked.

 

Not enough to gain back tons of market share but enough to make a decent amount of profit:

 

Rumored price is $850

 

$850 x 30,000 units = $25,500,000

ouch. given that AMD have an annual revenue of 5+ billion USD, that's such a drop in the bucket.  :mellow:

[Bouzoo]

I did see that rumor, even added a note about it in the OP of this thread bout an hour ago, but didn't notice the part about Fury X only being Water cooled. Kinda makes sense since there have only been pictures of the Nano leaked.

Ah, wasn't there when you first posted right? Haven't checked since. 

Well about the fan part.

 

One of the most interesting thing here is the new cooler design for the air cooled versions of the Radeon Fury GPUs, which instead of overly loud and insufficient blower fan on the R9 290X, AMD has decided to cool it with 3 Axial fans, which is similar in design to the cooler from the HD 7990, which was a dual core GPU which was released several years ago.

 

While this cooler was not pictured, the planned 3 axial fans will make a cooler which will look and be similar in size to the HD 7990, which is pictured beside the GTX 780, the GTX Titan and an R9 290X below.  

 

[sgloux3470]

I doubt Nvidia will sell 30,000 TitanX's/980 Ti's in 2015.

 

GM204 sold well because of the 970.  Flagship GPU's do not get those kinds of sales numbers.

[Valentyn]

I doubt Nvidia will sell 30,000 TitanX's/980 Ti's in 2015.

 

GM204 sold well because of the 970.  Flagship GPU's do not get those kinds of sales numbers.

 

So you're saying I need to buy more?! DONE!

[Bouzoo]

I doubt Nvidia will sell 30,000 TitanX's/980 Ti's in 2015.

 

GM204 sold well because of the 970.  Flagship GPU's do not get those kinds of sales numbers.

Don't forget a lot of people bought 980s so they don't want to upgrade. This is people going from 290X->Fury. Bigger leap than 980->980Ti or TitanX

[Nielips]

 

You should probably compare, Nvidias sales of the 980 Ti and Titan, rather than the 980 & 970. Other wise I don't think there is a point to your comparison.

[Briggsy]

You should probably compare, Nvidias sales of the 980 Ti and Titan, rather than the 980 & 970. Other wise I don't think there is a point to your comparison.

 

If you have the numbers, I'll post em.

[Thomas_K]

If this is true the rumored 899.00 price tag is also probably true. That will definitely drive me to the 980ti till next year when HBM 2 is in use.

[gill2k]

Limited launch?  WTF?  What is this?  A new console???  :angry:

[Sintezza]

Furry what?

Furry also still a rumor right?

 

Lets call it cookie lol.

[BiG StroOnZ]

 

ouch. given that AMD have an annual revenue of 5+ billion USD, that's such a drop in the bucket.  :mellow:

 

Well, let's just do the math to see what they would make if they sold 30,000 R9 290X's. 

Current Price on Newegg: $300 (before rebates)

 

$300 x 30,000 units: $9,000,000

 

So as you can see here, by introducing a new revenue stream of the Fury X, they are able to make an additional $25,500,000 while currently, by only selling 290's they are making $9,000,000. Which they have been doing for how many months now? 

 

So couple this new revenue stream of the Fury X and Fury, along side the 390X. They have a potential to make a decent profit in the long run. Just going by Fury alone we can see if they sell 30,000 units in 2015 that's $25,500,000. Along side say, 60,000 units of 390X's @ $389.99 and 80,000 units of 390's @ $329.99:

 

Fury X - $25,500,000

390X - $23,399,400

390 - $26,399,200

 

Total: $75,298,600

 

Not even including their lower end SKUs that will sell much more units because they are more in line with what people typically buy. 

[zMeul]

...

aren't you forgetting the production costs?!

software team that needs to develop drivers!?

[BiG StroOnZ]

aren't you forgetting the production costs?!

software team that needs to develop drivers!?

 

Production costs are usually included in the final cost of the card. I'm pretty sure the GCN architecture is pretty streamlined at this point as far as drivers go. Of course they need tweaks and modifications but it's not like they are ditching GCN and using an entirely new architecture. 

[Dabombinable]

This is more than likely an excuse for low yields.