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President of El Salvador: "buy the dip"

WolframaticAlpha
By WolframaticAlpha
in Tech News
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Posted
2 hours ago, Kisai said:

ACH is also used for everything from 1$ soda purchases to $10,000 tech purchases, it uses energy because that's the cost of doing that scale of transactions. Where as all bitcoin does is burn large amounts energy for relatively few transactions at all.

Again the lightning network can support more transactions, faster, and more efficiently than the ACH

▓ƆԀ▓ S▓₱▓Ɇ▓c▓s▓: i7 6ʇɥפᴉƎ00K (4.4ghz), Asus DeLuxe X99A II, GT҉X҉1҉0҉8҉0 Zotac Amp ExTrꍟꎭe),Si6F4Gb D???????r PlatinUm, EVGA G2 Sǝʌǝᘉ5ᙣᙍᖇᓎᙎᗅᖶt, Phanteks Enthoo Primo, 3TB WD Black, 500gb 850 Evo, H100iGeeTeeX, Windows 10, K70 R̸̢̡̭͍͕̱̭̟̩̀̀̃́̃͒̈́̈́͑̑́̆͘͜ͅG̶̦̬͊́B̸͈̝̖͗̈́, G502, HyperX Cloud 2s, Asus MX34. פN∩SW∀S 960 EVO

Just keeping this here as a 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2 hours ago, Morgan Everett said:

To sell all of your stocks and put it all into Bitcoin (or for that matter any cryptocurrency). 

In this context, to generate a significantly greater than inflation return on one’s investment. 

Not sure what country you live in but in Sweden, and the US, the growth of bitcoin once it inevitably bounced back (like it does every month) will far outpace inflation. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin will grow about 10% in the next coming days or the next week. 

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16 minutes ago, LAwLz said:

Not sure what country you live in but in Sweden, and the US, the growth of bitcoin once it inevitably bounced back (like it does every month) will far outpace inflation. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin will grow about 10% in the next coming days or the next week. 

There's nothing inevitable about Bitcoin's increase in value, whether tomorrow or in a year's time. I wouldn't be surprised if it did the same, much as I wouldn't be surprised if its value halved by this time next month. 

 

If one were to sell out of all one's positions and buy Bitcoin alone, this would be an investment strategy akin to strolling into a casino and staking it all on black. 

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3 hours ago, Morgan Everett said:

There's nothing inevitable about Bitcoin's increase in value, whether tomorrow or in a year's time. I wouldn't be surprised if it did the same, much as I wouldn't be surprised if its value halved by this time next month. 

I guess you're not that good at predicting trends then. 

If something happens more than once a month and pretty much always follows the same pattern, it's pretty illogical to assume it will just suddenly not happen again. 

What you are describing is not impossible (bitcoin losing 50% of its value in a month), but it is highly improbable. 

 

 

3 hours ago, Morgan Everett said:

If one were to sell out of all one's positions and buy Bitcoin alone, this would be an investment strategy akin to strolling into a casino and staking it all on black. 

Lol, no it wouldn't. 

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13 hours ago, LAwLz said:

I guess you're not that good at predicting trends then. 

 Guessing, I fear, is your problem. 

Quote

If something happens more than once a month and pretty much always follows the same pattern, it's pretty illogical to assume it will just suddenly not happen again. 

This depends wholly on the trend with which one is concerned and the time span in which it has occurred. Generalities such as this are pretty useless when it comes to deciding what asset to invest in: the Devil’s in the detail. 
 

In this case, you’re taking a short term trend in the value of Bitcoin and concluding (with quite some confidence) that that trend will continue into the near future. But what is your evidence that that trend will continue to be observed, and that there won’t be a significant drop in value, in-keeping with Bitcoin’s prior volatility?

 

Quote

What you are describing is not impossible (bitcoin losing 50% of its value in a month), but it is highly improbable. 

Is it? How have you made this determination? Bitcoin has previously lost half of its value in days, and in 6 weeks earlier this year, so we’re into a realm beyond that of mere possibility. 


Incidentally, what is your rationale for thinking this trend (in which Bitcoin periodically suffers very significant drops in its value very rapidly ) won’t be repeated next month, but your preferred trend will continue instead?

 

Quote

Lol, no it wouldn't. 

Yes, I’m afraid it would.

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17 hours ago, Morgan Everett said:

There's nothing inevitable about Bitcoin's increase in value, whether tomorrow or in a year's time. I wouldn't be surprised if it did the same, much as I wouldn't be surprised if its value halved by this time next month. 

 

If one were to sell out of all one's positions and buy Bitcoin alone, this would be an investment strategy akin to strolling into a casino and staking it all on black. 

 

8 minutes ago, Morgan Everett said:

 Guessing, I fear, is your problem. 

This depends wholly on the trend with which one is concerned and the time span in which it has occurred. Generalities such as this are pretty useless when it comes to deciding what asset to invest in: the Devil’s in the detail. 
 

In this case, you’re taking a short term trend in the value of Bitcoin and concluding (with quite some confidence) that that trend will continue into the near future. But what is your evidence that that trend will continue to be observed, and that there won’t be a significant drop in value, in-keeping with Bitcoin’s prior volatility?

 

Is it? How have you made this determination? Bitcoin has previously lost half of its value in days, and in 6 weeks earlier this year, so we’re into a realm beyond that of mere possibility. 


Incidentally, what is your rationale for thinking this trend (in which Bitcoin periodically suffers very significant drops in its value very rapidly ) won’t be repeated next month, but your preferred trend will continue instead?

 

Yes, I’m afraid it would.

how can he be sure, its quite easy actually, bitcoin is quite predictable in the macro scale, due to its halving events bitcoin has a quite predictable cycle of bull runs and bear runs, right now we are entering the last phase of its bull run, ending between december and march, after that a really heavy crash is to be expected, and the cycle will start over at the halving event, and even if one doesn't follow bitcoin's cycles, all one has to do is to hold it for 2+ years and the return is very likely to be quite healthy as bitcoin has never fell to bellow the previous cycle's peak.

and to quote a few madlads "i didn't lost anything during the crash because i didn't sell".

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21 minutes ago, Morgan Everett said:

 Guessing, I fear, is your problem. 

By your extreme logic, everything is a guess. The thing is that guesses can be more or less founded and secure.

The sun might explode and kill us all tomorrow, but it most likely won't.

Bitcoin might lose half of its value and never recover tomorrow, but it most likely won't.

 

The problem here is that you don't seem to take probability or historical data into consideration and just goes "if it is possible that something can happen, I wouldn't be surprised if it does".

 

23 minutes ago, Morgan Everett said:

This depends wholly on the trend with which one is concerned and the time span in which it has occurred. Generalities such as this are pretty useless when it comes to deciding what asset to invest in: the Devil’s in the detail. 

No? That is pretty much the only thing investment decisions are based on. Trends. What else would they be based on if not historical data? Do you happen to have a time machine or crystal ball you can use to decide which investments to make? If you do, I'd love to borrow it.

 

 

24 minutes ago, Morgan Everett said:

In this case, you’re taking a short term trend in the value of Bitcoin and concluding (with quite some confidence) that that trend will continue into the near future. But what is your evidence that that trend will continue to be observed, and that there won’t be a significant drop in value, in-keeping with Bitcoin’s prior volatility?

What is my evidence? Well, since it hasn't happened yet I don't have any evidence. It's the same as you can't prove that the sun won't explode tomorrow.

But if we look at historical data, it is very likely that it will happen. Same can be said for stock as well. Sure, year over year Microsoft has pretty much always increased in value, but there is nothing preventing it from going bankrupt or disbanding tomorrow and all that stock will go to 0. But what is the likelihood of that happening? I don't have any evidence that Microsoft will still be there tomorrow, just like I don't have any evidence that bitcoin will bounce back.

 

How about this. We both bookmark this thread and then in a month or two, we both look back and if bitcoin is at a higher price you have to say "I am sorry I doubted you LAwLz, you were right", but if it's lower then I have to say "I should have listened to you Morgan. You were right"? Wanna take that bet?

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3 hours ago, cj09beira said:

 

how can he be sure, its quite easy actually, bitcoin is quite predictable in the macro scale, due to its halving events bitcoin has a quite predictable cycle of bull runs and bear runs, right now we are entering the last phase of its bull run, ending between december and march, after that a really heavy crash is to be expected, and the cycle will start over at the halving event, and even if one doesn't follow bitcoin's cycles, all one has to do is to hold it for 2+ years and the return is very likely to be quite healthy as bitcoin has never fell to bellow the previous cycle's peak.

and to quote a few madlads "i didn't lost anything during the crash because i didn't sell".

The SEC sees cryptocoins as a fad.

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2021/09/21/secs-gensler-calls-stablecoins-poker-chips-at-the-wild-west-crypto-casino/

 

And I still agree with the idea that cryptoCOINS are going nowhere. There's potential in maybe repurposing cryptocoin tech into F2P games so that "gold farming" and botting for other junk becomes impossible without expending large amounts of computer processing power, but I ultimately think the game companies figured out the correct way to deal with it and just run their own cash shops for people with no patience.

 

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3 hours ago, LAwLz said:

By your extreme logic, everything is a guess. The thing is that guesses can be more or less founded and secure.

The sun might explode and kill us all tomorrow, but it most likely won't.

Bitcoin might lose half of its value and never recover tomorrow, but it most likely won't.

You say that is by my logic, but it’s no such thing, and you certainly don’t show as much. 

Quote

 

The problem here is that you don't seem to take probability or historical data into consideration and just goes "if it is possible that something can happen, I wouldn't be surprised if it does".

Only I’ve said no such thing. 

Quote

 

No? That is pretty much the only thing investment decisions are based on. Trends. What else would they be based on if not historical data? Do you happen to have a time machine or crystal ball you can use to decide which investments to make? If you do, I'd love to borrow it.

Eh? Investment decisions are based on far more than historical trends. I’m invested in Lucid Group because of its management team, its technological breakthroughs versus its key competitors, a sympathetic regulatory environment, and the fact that they address a key gap in market, among other reasons.  
 

Given that you seem unaware of even the basics of valuing a stock (as well as your peculiar views on predicting the future in general), perhaps your sarcasm should be at least temporarily retired. 

Quote

 

 

What is my evidence? Well, since it hasn't happened yet I don't have any evidence. It's the same as you can't prove that the sun won't explode tomorrow.

But if we look at historical data, it is very likely that it will happen. Same can be said for stock as well. Sure, year over year Microsoft has pretty much always increased in value, but there is nothing preventing it from going bankrupt or disbanding tomorrow and all that stock will go to 0. But what is the likelihood of that happening? I don't have any evidence that Microsoft will still be there tomorrow, just like I don't have any evidence that bitcoin will bounce back.

This is a view that seems strange indeed: you say that you can’t have evidence something will happen because it hasn’t happened yet. But why on earth would one agree to such a bizarre epistemic stance? Indeed, you don’t seem to agree with it yourself: you seem to assess it as being likely that Microsoft will exist tomorrow. But on what basis is that assessment if not evidence? 
 

Perhaps you mean that there’s no evidence beyond the fact that it’s existed for a long time hitherto. But that’s simply false, given what we know about the company; compare our predictions about the Sun’s future behaviour given what we know of it and other stars. It’s not simply that it’s existed for a long time, but that, given the way we understand stars work, it’s not going boom anytime soon. 

Quote

 

How about this. We both bookmark this thread and then in a month or two, we both look back and if bitcoin is at a higher price you have to say "I am sorry I doubted you LAwLz, you were right", but if it's lower then I have to say "I should have listened to you Morgan. You were right"? Wanna take that bet?

This suggests you haven’t being following what I’ve been saying carefully. What view of mine do you think an increase in the value of Bitcoin next month would refute?

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59 minutes ago, Morgan Everett said:

You say that is by my logic, but it’s no such thing, and you certainly don’t show as much. 

Only I’ve said no such thing. 

Eh? Investment decisions are based on far more than historical trends. I’m invested in Lucid Motors because of its management team, its technological breakthroughs versus its key competitors, a sympathetic regulatory environment, and the fact that they address a key gap in market, among other reasons.  
 

Given that you seem unaware of even the basics of valuing a stock (as well as your peculiar views on predicting the future in general), perhaps your sarcasm should be at least temporarily retired. 

This is a view that seems strange indeed: you say that you can’t have evidence something will happen because it hasn’t happened yet. But why on earth would one agree to such a bizarre epistemic stance? Indeed, you don’t seem to agree with it yourself: you assess it as being likely that Microsoft will exist tomorrow. But on what basis is that assessment if not evidence? 
 

Perhaps you mean that there’s no evidence beyond the fact that it’s existed for a long time hitherto. But that’s simply false, given what we know about the company; compare our predictions about the Sun’s future behaviour given what we know of it and other stars. It’s not simply that it’s existed for a long time, but that, given the way we understand stars work, it’s not going boom anytime soon. 

Okay...

You said that if you want to generate a significantly greater than inflation return on one's investment, it is a bad idea to, in the short term, sell stock and buy bitcoin.

When I asked you why, you said that it was a bad idea because there was nothing inevitable about Bitcoin bouncing back, and that you would not be surprised if Bitcoin dropped 50% in value by next month. You also said that buying bitcoin was as risky as putting everything on black at a casino.

 

My guess is that you were trying to be funny and speaking in hyperbole. But if you weren't being facetious then I'd like to know why you said it was like putting everything on black and why you wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin halved in value in a month. What do you base those statements on? It can't be historical trends at least because if we look at that, it is pretty clear that these kinds of dips happens all the time with bitcoin and they usually recover rather quickly. Like I said, if we look back just a year we can see that this has happened over 20 times (small dip, and then bounce back).

 

 

Yes, I said that Microsoft will likely exist tomorrow. I don't actually have any evidence for that, and neither do you. It is impossible to have evidence that something won't happen in the future. We can only be reasonably certain that something won't happen based on things like reasoning, historical trends, etc. You know, the same kind of things I look at when determining the future value of bitcoins.

 

 

 

  

59 minutes ago, Morgan Everett said:

This suggests you haven’t being following what I’ve been saying carefully. What view of mine do you think an increase in the value of Bitcoin next month would refute?

You said that:

1) You wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin drops 50% in value by next month.

2) That buying bitcoin is as risky as playing at a casino.

3) That buying bitcoin is a bad investment.

 

When I asked why, you basically only said that I couldn't be certain it would bounce back. To me that sounds like someone saying bitcoin won't bounce back. Or are you one of those people that argues with someone even though you might not really disagree with them? The one that might say "I never said bitcoin won't bounce back, it probably will. I just wanted to disagree with what you said".

 

 

If you don't think bitcoin will bounce back, why not take my bet? You have literally nothing to lose other than some pride. I am willing to take that bet. Or are you going to back out now and agree with me that bitcoin probably will bounce back?

The price right now is 43,089 USD for 1 bitcoin on CoinDesk. Let's pretend that I buy half a bitcoin. Do you or do you not think that I will be able to make a profit by selling it in the near future?

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On 9/20/2021 at 12:00 PM, BuckGup said:

That's what wrappers and the lightning network are for. The price instability is a point of concern I agree but it's a byproduct of it's infancy 

I have looked more into second layer networks...I still stand by what I said.

 

We are currently have the "Bitcoin is the future of banking".  To make an analogy with cash, "USD is the future of banking", and then when being brought to the limiting factor of speed of currency, saying "credit cards make the transactions possible".  The way I view it, a second layer network is akin to credit cards.  It also does introduce issues, while solving some.

 

The given rate of 7 transactions per second as well of Bitcoins still I think would bubble down to the second layer network at a higher load.  While it does aggregate transactions, and there is the claim of millions of transactions per second...I am still skeptical of what happens in real world scaling.  As I've seen claims of 25 millions transactions being boiled down to a single transaction.  I would be happy to be proven wrong, and would like to see some technical articles regarding bitcoin and lightning (and theoretical vs practical limitations)....but then again to me it seems as though it's more like a side-chute where players are making transactions and then occasionally things get reconciled with the main bitcoin blockchain...for myself though, it seems at that point though you are effectively not really bitcoin anymore but more like a quasi bitcoin.

 

 

3735928559 - Beware of the dead beef

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Every time I hear about Bitcoin I always think of the Dutch Tulip Madness:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

 

Once one Tulip Bulb auctioned for more then the available amount money in the entire country, the Market crashed hard. 

 

Or the US Stock Market Collapse which triggered The Great Depression in late 1929.

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2 hours ago, whm1974 said:

Every time I hear about Bitcoin I always think of the Dutch Tulip Madness:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

 

Once one Tulip Bulb auctioned for more then the available amount money in the entire country, the Market crashed hard. 

 

Or the US Stock Market Collapse which triggered The Great Depression in late 1929.

bitcoin does crash hard, it has done so every 4 years, but it also has bounced back up and then some every single time.

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35 minutes ago, cj09beira said:

bitcoin does crash hard, it has done so every 4 years, but it also has bounced back up and then some every single time.

Since Bitcoin does uses enough Electricity to cause Brownouts in some Countries, I do wonder if there will be entire regions of Earth producing Power just keep Bitcoin going?

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Posted

@Morgan Everett I know you didn't take my bet because you were too unsure of yourself, but here is the result right now.

 

Since my post where I said "if I was smart, I'd sell all my stock right now and buy bitcoin" and you said that was stupid because you would not have been surprised if bitcoin lost half of its value in a month.

My stock - Down 3,32%.

Bitcoin - Up 9,4%.

 

 

So if I had sold all my stock and bought bitcoin instead, I would have had 13,15% more money than I do right now.

Do you still think it would have been a bad choice? 

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28 minutes ago, LAwLz said:

@Morgan Everett I know you didn't take my bet because you were too unsure of yourself, but here is the result right now.

 

Since my post where I said "if I was smart, I'd sell all my stock right now and buy bitcoin" and you said that was stupid because you would not have been surprised if bitcoin lost half of its value in a month.

My stock - Down 3,32%.

Bitcoin - Up 9,4%.

 

 

So if I had sold all my stock and bought bitcoin instead, I would have had 13,15% more money than I do right now.

Do you still think it would have been a bad choice? 

Only if you're a day trader. Where China has banned trading in BTC, the US has said they have no intention of doing anything for now.

 

But you'd have to be a fool to buy bitcoin as an investment. If you bought Sept 7th, it's still below that value. If you bought Sept 21st (the day you had this argument), it's gone up 9%. 

 

My stocks are up. But I primarily invest in dividend stocks.

 

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32 minutes ago, LAwLz said:

My stock - Down 3,32%.

Bitcoin - Up 9,4%.

 

 

So if I had sold all my stock and bought bitcoin instead, I would have had 13,15% more money than I do right now.

Do you still think it would have been a bad choice? 

"May you live in interesting times"

 

Mr Goxx, the hamster, made better at crypto than most.

 

It's all a gamble.

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55 minutes ago, Kisai said:

Only if you're a day trader.

I thought you weren't allowed to talk to me (and vice versa). Anyway, I don't think you know what day trader means. Day trader is when you buy and sell stock the same day. With day trading, it's important to buy and sell within the same day so that you do not have the risk of negative price gaps between the market closing and the market opening.

What I recommended was a short strategy that would have taken place over like a month or so.

 

 

58 minutes ago, Kisai said:

But you'd have to be a fool to buy bitcoin as an investment.

Clearly not since a lot of people have made a ton of money from it. But it depends on what you define as "investment".

 

59 minutes ago, Kisai said:

If you bought Sept 7th, it's still below that value. If you bought Sept 21st (the day you had this argument), it's gone up 9%. 

Yes, and there is a very specific reason why I recommended it on that precise day and not on September 7th.

I said that if I were willing to take the risk, I would have bought in during the dip. There was no dip on September 7th. "Buy the dip" is when you buy as the price seems to stabilize again. You don't buy as the prices are free falling.

 

 

1 hour ago, Kisai said:

My stocks are up. But I primarily invest in dividend stocks.

So do I, but almost the entire market is down. I find it hard to believe that your stock has gone up if you have a varied portfolio.

S&P 500 is +/- 0 as of today compared to September 21.

Nasdaq is down 1.2%.

OMX 30 is down about 1%.

 

My portfolio (which I think is diverse, it's mostly consists of 6 equity funds in different sectors and regions) is, as I said, down 3,32% compared to September 21.

They are up ~10% since the start of the year so they are still pretty good, but my suggestion of selling the stock and buying bitcoin would have been a short term thing if I wasn't so risk-averse.

 

 

1 hour ago, StDragon said:

"May you live in interesting times"

 

Mr Goxx, the hamster, made better at crypto than most.

 

It's all a gamble.

Yes but you could say the same about stocks.

It's all a matter of how much risk you're willing to take.

Want no/low risk and low reward? Get gonveremnt bonds.

Want medium risk and medium reward? Get a diverse stock portfolio.

Want high risk (although not as high as people think, if you keep track of the bitcoin trends) and high reward? Get bitcoin.

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21 hours ago, Kisai said:

But you'd have to be a fool to buy bitcoin as an investment. If you bought Sept 7th, it's still below that value. If you bought Sept 21st (the day you had this argument), it's gone up 9%

Depends on your risk budget I'd say. If you bought in last year at 10k you would be up 300% at the current $40k. My best stock has done +55% in the same 1 year time frame. I'd say you're a fool if you'd blindly thrown money at it, or money you shouldn't really invest. If you treat it as a great risk and are comfortable with losing it, not so much.

Crystal: CPU: i7 7700K | Motherboard: Asus ROG Strix Z270F | RAM: GSkill 16 GB@3200MHz | GPU: Nvidia GTX 1080 Ti FE | Case: Corsair Crystal 570X (black) | PSU: EVGA Supernova G2 1000W | Monitor: Asus VG248QE 24"

Laptop: Dell XPS 13 9370 | CPU: i5 10510U | RAM: 16 GB

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On 10/2/2021 at 4:49 AM, LAwLz said:

@Morgan Everett I know you didn't take my bet because you were too unsure of yourself, but here is the result right now.

 

Since my post where I said "if I was smart, I'd sell all my stock right now and buy bitcoin" and you said that was stupid because you would not have been surprised if bitcoin lost half of its value in a month.

My stock - Down 3,32%.

Bitcoin - Up 9,4%.

 

 

So if I had sold all my stock and bought bitcoin instead, I would have had 13,15% more money than I do right now.

Do you still think it would have been a bad choice? 

Thinking of Investments in terms of weeks or days, never tells the whole story

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5 hours ago, WolframaticAlpha said:

Thinking of Investments in terms of weeks or days, never tells the whole story

Why not?

My advice was aimed at specifically doing the switch short term and then sell as soon as the price bounced up again. I never recommended buying and holding bitcoin for years.

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7 hours ago, LAwLz said:

Why not?

My advice was aimed at specifically doing the switch short term and then sell as soon as the price bounced up again. I never recommended buying and holding bitcoin for years.

Short term = higher risk

Long term = lower risk

 

It really depends on your own personal goals.

 

That said, if you go into Crypto knowing you're playing against others in a FOMO and "Greater Fool Theory", then I say have fun and good luck (no, I'm being sincere and not snarky). But for the rest of you, oh man, you could very well lose your shirt! 

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1 hour ago, StDragon said:

Short term = higher risk

Long term = lower risk

 

It really depends on your own personal goals.

 

That said, if you go into Crypto knowing you're playing against others in a FOMO and "Greater Fool Theory", then I say have fun and good luck (no, I'm being sincere and not snarky). But for the rest of you, oh man, you could very well lose your shirt! 

That is why I have always said. Before making crypto investments, consider the amount as lost money. You can very well make money, but you can lose a lot of it too. It saddens me that a lot of people worked hard to save money, put it into crypto and then lost all their effort because a lunatic wrote a tweet. 

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On 10/2/2021 at 12:19 AM, LAwLz said:

@Morgan Everett I know you didn't take my bet because you were too unsure of yourself, but here is the result right now.

 

Since my post where I said "if I was smart, I'd sell all my stock right now and buy bitcoin" and you said that was stupid because you would not have been surprised if bitcoin lost half of its value in a month.

My stock - Down 3,32%.

Bitcoin - Up 9,4%.

 

 

So if I had sold all my stock and bought bitcoin instead, I would have had 13,15% more money than I do right now.

Do you still think it would have been a bad choice? 

You know no such thing: I was, and remain, quite sure of myself, something your strange views of both assessing investments and epistemology in general seem unlikely to shake. Rather, I didn't take your bet because it bore no relation to anything I had said (which you still seem not to have quite grasped).

 

As for your triumphalism here, it's terribly misplaced, and reflects those views I've just referred to. Compare a gambler who considers selling all his worldly possessions, and then betting the proceeds on black. Suppose he's warned that to do so would not be a smart choice, but does so anyway. Does the fact that the gambler goes on to win make his prior choice a smart one? Of course not: he simply got lucky. Likewise, if he took our advice, and refused to gamble his money, and then black turned out to win after all, it would be puzzling indeed if he started crowing "Do you still think it would have been a bad choice?". Of course it would have!

 

You are free to sell out of all your positions, and gamble those proceeds on what you speculate (for you've done little more) the price of Bitcoin will be next month, or next week. But that will remain a profoundly silly thing to do, and the fact that you don't do it suggests that perhaps you don't disagree after all. 

 

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