It keeps getting worse: According to a rumor, demand will exceed supply for Intel Rocket Lake CPUs in Q2

[Random_Person1234]

Summary

Intel CPUs are thought to have better supply than their AMD counterparts due to Intel having their own fabs. But according to a rumor by Wccftech, Intel stock will not meet demand in Q2 due to substrate shortages. The rumor states that Intel has been reporting substrate shortages to its key partners throughout the last week. But, Q1 allocations for Rocket Lake are good, so 11th gen chips should be available at MSRP for at least the next few weeks. Q2 allocations for Rocket Lake are a different story, as they are expected to be hit hard due to a substrate shortage. Intel will favor the top of the product stack (i9 and i7s) for allocations, so the i5 lineup is expected to be the most impacted. 

 

Quotes

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Before we go any further, here is the top-level summary:

Intel has been reporting substrate shortages to key partners throughout last week.

Intel Q1 allocations for Rocket Lake are quite good so the SKUs will be available close to MSRP for at least a few weeks if not more.

Unfortunately, due to substrate shortages, Q2 allocations for Rocket Lake are going to be hit hard.

Allocations will be favored towards the top of the stack first, Core i9; so Core i7 and Core i5 will be the most impacted.

Considering Intel is in a far better position to manage supply than TSMC-AMD (which unlike Intel foundry is not just substrate-constrained but capacity-constrained as well), we expect any premiums to be lower than AMD Ryzen.

Intel statement to Wccftech:

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As we have said in the Financial Outlook press release on March 23rd, demand for semiconductors and Intel products is very strong. We’ve been expanding our capacity to meet this demand and, as a result, we expect to grow our annual client CPU supply double-digits year-over-year versus 2020. However, the unprecedented global demand for semiconductor components and substrates is a challenge for many industries, including ours. We are actively working with our supply chain partners to increase the availability of third-party materials and components to further improve output for our processors and also support the broader PC ecosystem. We remain focused on supporting our customers and we will continue working to increase supply to meet our customers’ needs.

 

My thoughts

Right now seems to just be the worst time to build a new PC. I'm disappointed that Intel will be favoring the i9 and i7 lineup, since they are the worst in the family compared to the i5, which will be hit the hardest. If you are looking for a new CPU currently, I would recommend 10th gen Intel since it is available and on promo for cheap these days.

 

Sources

https://wccftech.com/exclusive-demand-to-exceed-supply-for-intel-rocket-lake-due-to-substrate-shortage/

[Arika]

Why is this news? If course it will. 

 

Is it a new GPU or CPU? If you answered yes, it will have supply issues

[porina]

4 minutes ago, Random_Person1234 said:

My thoughts

Right now seems to just be the worst time to build a new PC. I'm disappointed that Intel will be favoring the i9 and i7 lineup, since they are the worst in the family compared to the i5, which will be hit the hardest. If you are looking for a new CPU currently, I would recommend 10th gen Intel since it is available and on promo for cheap these days.

Not really a surprise. In constraint, you're going to prioritise those products with best profit first. No different than AMD's Zen 3 strategy since they launched. Wouldn't count on higher 10th gen being sold indefinitely, bulk supply would have been cut off with Rocket Lake's arrival.

 

[emosun]

BREAKING NEWS: silicon shortage

[Maticks]

it would be news if someone kept up with demand at this stage. 

[TetraSky]

Wait, demand from who? People who can't find a Zen3 CPU?

 

It's a bad time all around to build your own PC. Just buy a pre-built from a boutique or wherever else.

[StDragon]

8 minutes ago, TetraSky said:

Wait, demand from who? People who can't find a Zen3 CPU?

Business use; as in not-a-gamer market. They'll pay just about whatever it takes to operate and pass the cost down to the consumer. Also, must be a nice expense write-off.

 

CPU more expensive? Oh well 

[lostcattears]

People will be getting back to work soon in offices sooo.... it will most likely slow down by Q2

[tkitch]

Although probably not for the i7 and i9.  The i3 and i5 may be in extra short supply!

[StDragon]

59 minutes ago, lostcattears said:

People will be getting back to work soon in offices sooo.... it will most likely slow down by Q2

Possibly, that and market saturation; meaning those that already purchased computing equipment for COVID-19 aren't likely to upgrade or replace anytime soon. Also, Work-from-home is here to stay, so that toothpaste is out of the tube. The question is how much of that workforce is returning as a proportion?

 

 

[Kisai]

On 4/5/2021 at 5:22 PM, StDragon said:

Business use; as in not-a-gamer market. They'll pay just about whatever it takes to operate and pass the cost down to the consumer. Also, must be a nice expense write-off.

 

CPU more expensive? Oh well 

Businesses also don't go after the high end gamer parts. 

 

Either they're Laptop U parts (which is what management uses) or H parts in high end laptops. There won't be a sudden replacement of laptops back to desktops. Heck the office I do work at, basically gave everyone laptops and only the engineers want to return to desktops.

 

So that will likely only have any bearing on RocketLake-S i7 parts, not i9 or i5 parts, and not that much. 

 

Like Intel isn't wrong here, there will be likely be a minor supply/demand fluctuation as all the existing 9th and 10th gen i7/i9 parts get flushed out of the supply chain, but without AMD having any availability, the gaming-tier CPU's will likely have some demand spikes, but since there's no GPU's at all, there won't be any new builds... Gamers don't build a system only to sit it in a corner and run the iGPU. Gamers either do a full replacement, or a piecemeal replacement, and since the 14nm skylake parks aren't significantly different in performance, you're not going to replace a 6th/7th/8th gen 4-core/6-core part with a 9th/10th/11th gen 6/8-core part since you have to replace the MB and RAM to get the benefit of the replacement.

 

Heck, the office was still getting new laptops with 8th gen intel parts as little as January.

[AnonymousGuy]

On 4/6/2021 at 9:13 PM, Kisai said:

There won't be a sudden replacement of laptops back to desktops. Heck the office I do work at, basically gave everyone laptops and only the engineers want to return to desktops.

Tangent, but my employer refreshes my laptop every few years and I'm ready to go back to a desktop.  They don't really offer that anymore though on the menu so I'm just saying fuck it and selecting a mobile workstation that is heavy as balls and comes with a giant power brick.  I don't need mobility when my laptop sits in a dock 24x7 and when I do go mobile I remote into it from my thin and light.  And a 4 core 8 thread U processor isn't strong enough for my workload.  So I'm going to move to an H part 8 core with a Quadro.