Will the next gen Nvidia RTX cards come out this year?

[KyberKylo77]

Always wanted to upgrade to an RTX card but was told that the current gen RTX cards aren't mature tech and doesn't really have much value and to wait for the next gen.

[Princess Luna]

Yes, we're expecting nVidia's 7nm GPU to come out this year.

[KyberKylo77]

1 minute ago, Princess Luna said:

Yes, we're expecting nVidia's 7nm GPU to come out this year.

ah, thats good news. But will the prices go up even more compared to the increased price from last gen to current gen since that itself was pretty significant.

[Midnitewolf]

31 minutes ago, KyberKylo77 said:

ah, thats good news. But will the prices go up even more compared to the increased price from last gen to current gen since that itself was pretty significant.

Depends.  AMD's "Big Navi" is also supposed to come out this year.  If they finally can offer a product that can actually compete on the high end and do it at the usually "Budget Level" pricing compared to Nvidia, then there might not be an increase.  As far as the price increase last gen, we unfortunately suffered the consequences of no competition to Nvidia which caused them to get greedy.

 

On the other hand, GDDR 6 ram is supposed to run into supply issues and is expected to go up by around 5% so there is a good possibility that the manufacturing costs of all GPU's will go up as well.  That will be passed on to the consumer so we might see a 10% elevation of price overall even if AMD comes out strong. 

[Mark Kaine]

1 hour ago, KyberKylo77 said:

ah, thats good news. But will the prices go up even more compared to the increased price from last gen to current gen since that itself was pretty significant.

It's not really expected for prices going up, although we don't know yet obviously. 

 

 

Imo it would make more sense to lower cards prices and sell more = more profits. 

 

But Nvidia also has to keep AMD in mind and not undercut them as we've seen in previous generations,  they after all need the "competition"... 

[Midnitewolf]

12 minutes ago, Mark Kaine said:

 

Imo it would make more sense to lower cards prices and sell more = more profits. 

 

I tend to agree but Nvidia apparently doesn't.  I mean it is pretty obvious NVidia has been taking advantage of us consumers when it comes to high end GPUs when you consider that a 1080 Ti's original MSRP was $699 and then the next gen 2080TI jumped to $999.  That is a huge generation to generation price jump and the 2080 TI can't be that much more expensive to manufacture than the 1080 TI.  I was expecting maybe $750 when the 2080 TI release, not $1000.

 

Honestly I think it was a bad move on Nvidia's part.  I know for example that the fact that they seemed to have price gouged us consumers has put a bad taste in my mouth as far as Nvidia as a company is concerned and turned me into a Radeon fan.  I truly believe Nvidia has the better product, but because they don't seem to care about their customers, as long as AMD can give me a somewhat comparable product, at a decent price, I will keep buying AMD cards, kind of out of spite if nothing else. 

[Mark Kaine]

8 minutes ago, Midnitewolf said:

I tend to agree but Nvidia apparently doesn't.  I mean it is pretty obvious NVidia has been taking advantage of us consumers when it comes to high end GPUs when you consider that a 1080 Ti's original MSRP was $699 and then the next gen 2080TI jumped to $999.  That is a huge generation to generation price jump and the 2080 TI can't be that much more expensive to manufacture than the 1080 TI.  I was expecting maybe $750 when the 2080 TI release, not $1000.

 

Honestly I think it was a bad move on Nvidia's part.  I know for example that the fact that they seemed to have price gouged us consumers has put a bad taste in my mouth as far as Nvidia as a company is concerned and turned me into a Radeon fan.  I truly believe Nvidia has the better product, but because they don't seem to care about their customers, as long as AMD can give me a somewhat comparable product, at a decent price, I will keep buying AMD cards, kind of out of spite if nothing else. 

Yeah that's part of the reason I think they'll largely keep their current pricing,  kinda have a hard time seeing a ~€400 card that doubles say 2060S performance,  but that *should* happen... 

 

But I also think they'll just keep going with the nickel and dime tactics,  first release relatively weak product - 6 months later release way better product at similar prices because "advancements"... 

 

People generally eat this up.

 

We will see lol.

[Eigenvektor]

28 minutes ago, Mark Kaine said:

Imo it would make more sense to lower cards prices and sell more = more profits.

It's not as easy as that. For example if you have a profit margin of 60% and you lower prices by 20% your sales need to increase by at least 50% to make the same profit as before. Do you think a 20% cheaper 2080 Ti would sell to at least 50% more customers or would they still shy away from it?

[Mark Kaine]

23 minutes ago, Eigenvektor said:

It's not as easy as that. For example if you have a profit margin of 60% and you lower prices by 20% your sales need to increase by at least 50% to make the same profit as before. Do you think a 20% cheaper 2080 Ti would sell to at least 50% more customers or would they still shy away from it?

I dunno, but when I'm talking about this stuff I generally think 300-600 cards because that's what gets sold,  1080ti upwards is pretty niche (under 1% afaik) for all I care they could ask $5000 for those

 

^Steam hardware survey says 0.50% for RTX 2080ti for example 

 

[mr mans]

I hope not. Too many GPU releases last year

[TehPlayer14]

2 hours ago, Princess Luna said:

Yes, we're expecting nVidia's 7nm GPU to come out this year.

Finally 7nm on Nvidia GPU's the ultimate power

[Eigenvektor]

4 minutes ago, Mark Kaine said:

I dunno, but when I'm talking about this stuff I generally think 300-600 cards because that's what gets sold,  1080ti upwards is pretty niche (under 1% afaik) for all I care they could ask $5000 for those

Yeah, same here. But I think the only thing that can force Nvidia to lower prices is actual competition. As long as they keep their 80% (or whatever) marketshare, why should they accept lower profits? Right now people seem to mostly prefer Nvidia even if AMD has better performance at the same price (thanks to drivers and whatnot).

[Mark Kaine]

2 minutes ago, Eigenvektor said:

Yeah, same here. But I think the only thing that can force Nvidia to lower prices is actual competition. As long as they keep their 80% (or whatever) marketshare, why should they accept lower profits? Right now people seem to mostly prefer Nvidia even if AMD has better performance at the same price (thanks to drivers and whatnot).

and what I said isn't proven but pretty apparent anyways,  they have to keep AMD in mind and keep them in the game. 

Nvidia doesn't want to be the *only*  dGPU supplier... that would be the worst thing that could happen to them, especially when it happens by undercutting the non competitive competition... 

 

its much better to have a weakass competition they can keep in check easily.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Mira Yurizaki]

50 minutes ago, Midnitewolf said:

That is a huge generation to generation price jump and the 2080 TI can't be that much more expensive to manufacture than the 1080 TI. 

The 2080 Ti uses a 754mm^2 die versus the 1080 Ti's 471mm^2. IC costs go up with die size because you get less yield out of the silicon wafers. The other RTX GPUs are also as big as Pascal's upper end.

 

If anything, I'd argue a major contributing factor to the price is this.

[Eigenvektor]

36 minutes ago, Mark Kaine said:

^Steam hardware survey says 0.50% for RTX 2080ti,  I think that was a really bad example for your math

The math should work independent of the concrete GPU model. I don't think their sales will increase by 50% by lowering prices 20%, no matter the GPU. But obviously I'm just pulling numbers out of my ... My main point was that "lower prices = higher sales" doesn't automatically translate to higher profits. I'm sure they have market strategists to figure that out

 

Quote

 

and what I said isn't proven but pretty apparent anyways,  they have to keep AMD in mind and keep them in the game. 

Nvidia doesn't want to be the *only*  dGPU supplier... that would be the worst thing that could happen to them, especially when it happens by undercutting the non competitive competition... 

 

That makes sense. As long as they can offer the superior product (whether perceived or real) at just the right premium they can keep the situation more or less stable. They gain nothing by becoming a monopoly. Which would be another reason why their prices make sense (to them). So long as AMD isn't able to counter them at all performance levels, they always have the upper hand because they do have a better product available that they can price just right.

 

In any case, @KyberKylo77 here's a thread that contains all the latest rumors:

 

[redbread123]

waiting for the time nVIDIA calls a 600$ gpu a "mid end" card

[CTR640]

Even if next-gen RTX gpu's will come out this year, I don't see any positive about this. The prices will be high or higher than the current-gen RTX gpu's. We must not forget AMD is overlord in the low and med range segments whereas nVidia is in the high-end.

[Mark Kaine]

29 minutes ago, Eigenvektor said:

The math should work independent of the concrete GPU model. I don't think their sales will increase by 50% by lowering prices 20%, no matter the GPU. But obviously I'm just pulling numbers out of my ... My main point was that "lower prices = higher sales" doesn't automatically translate to higher profits.

I agree,  it doesn't really matter which models  hence I removed that part of my post... 

But then there surely is a point where it would make sense like 10% lower perhaps. 

 

Also yeah,  they shouldn't over do it either,  if they keep rising prices people may be content with what they have for a while... We shouldn't forget the current cards are already really powerful. But yes, the strategies behind this all are probably pretty complex! 

 

33 minutes ago, Eigenvektor said:

Which would be another reason why their prices make sense (to them)

Yeah, of course it does.  It's not only performance - although I think it's especially important for them to own the high end because of the perceived "premium value" it's also people just prefer Nvidia at large and probably got burned at a point by AMD.

 

Sure AMD might have gotten better recently, their drivers and support is still a mess not everyone wants to deal with for a few more fps. 

 

 

[Mira Yurizaki]

I want to point out something here.

 

The cost per transistor has basically flatlined since 28nm (from https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/handel-jones-cost-per-transistor-flat-from-28-to-7nm.2476904/)

 

And the cost to go to smaller nodes has gone up significantly (from https://www.extremetech.com/computing/272096-3nm-process-node)

 

So combine this with the yield rate and you have an idea base cost of what each part should cost to make and I'm not confident this figure will go down significantly any time soon even as the process matures.

[Midnitewolf]

1 hour ago, Mira Yurizaki said:

The 2080 Ti uses a 754mm^2 die versus the 1080 Ti's 471mm^2. IC costs go up with die size because you get less yield out of the silicon wafers. The other RTX GPUs are also as big as Pascal's upper end.

 

If anything, I'd argue a major contributing factor to the price is this.

I am sure that is part of it which is why I never expected the 2080 Ti to come out at the same cost of a 1080 Ti but a ~43% increase in price seems a bit excessive to me.  Also I think that if the prices were more reasonable, they would have a much higher adoption rate on the 2080 Ti if the prices were tamed down to the $800 range.

 

As far as mid ranged cards, those all went up by like  ~30% as well.  A 2070 at release cost $450 vs the 1070 costing around $350, that is a big jump in price generation to generation and it "feels" like Nvidia just took advantage of its dominance. AMD, so far at least, doesn't seem to price gouge even when they have a superior product (talking CPU's here).  Maybe it is only because they are coming from behind and want to look good but it just "feels" like they care more about their customers especially when they could actually charge more but don't.

[Mira Yurizaki]

1 hour ago, Midnitewolf said:

AMD, so far at least, doesn't seem to price gouge even when they have a superior product (talking CPU's here).

That's because they really can't afford to. Their goal right now is to regain as much marketshare as they can. Though I feel their only real advantage is that they're on 7nm. We don't know what Intel or NVIDIA will do when they get there. And the GeForce 20 price gouging is the first time something like this happened, yet people are treating a price increasing like this was always a thing or it will always be a thing.

 

This is forgetting both sides have released GPUs that were more expensive than the previous generation if they were first to the "next generation." They just haven't priced it much more to this extent.

[Midnitewolf]

1 minute ago, Mira Yurizaki said:

That's because they really can't afford to. Their goal right now is to regain as much marketshare as they can. Though I feel their only real advantage is that they're on 7nm. We don't know what Intel or NVIDIA will do when they get there. And the GeForce 20 price gouging is the first time something like this happened, yet people are treating a price increasing like this was always a thing or it will always be a thing.

 

This is forgetting both sides have released GPUs that were more expensive than the previous generation if they were first to the "next generation." They just haven't priced it much more to this extent.

I hear what you are saying and that is why I used the words "Feels Like" when I was describing things.  I honestly don't have a clue what it costs to manufacture a 2080 TI, for all I know it cost them $950 and they are only making a slim margin.  Also your right about AMD, they have to be the good guys if they want to increase market share, however that doesn't mean they have to stop being the good guys if/when they do have that market share.  

 

I think for me it isn't so much as Nvidia went up in price,  it was how much they went up and that most of that price increase was concentrated in the areas where AMD couldn't offer a competing product.  That is why it feels like price gouging to me.  I mean if they just increased pricing 15-20% across the board, I could sort of understand that, but a 40% plus price increase with the 2080 TI just felt like a cheap shot taken.

[KyberKylo77]

On 1/7/2020 at 12:35 AM, Eigenvektor said:

The math should work independent of the concrete GPU model. I don't think their sales will increase by 50% by lowering prices 20%, no matter the GPU. But obviously I'm just pulling numbers out of my ... My main point was that "lower prices = higher sales" doesn't automatically translate to higher profits. I'm sure they have market strategists to figure that out

 

That makes sense. As long as they can offer the superior product (whether perceived or real) at just the right premium they can keep the situation more or less stable. They gain nothing by becoming a monopoly. Which would be another reason why their prices make sense (to them). So long as AMD isn't able to counter them at all performance levels, they always have the upper hand because they do have a better product available that they can price just right.

 

In any case, @KyberKylo77 here's a thread that contains all the latest rumors:

 

Ah thanks man I'll be sure to check it out