Morgan Stanley tries to slam AMD with ridiculous claims in new report

[Spenser1337]

2 hours ago, mr moose said:

 

That would be deemed both unethical and illegal, Not to mention easy to prove.  So not likely unless the authors have just had multiple strokes and are as yet unaware.

 

Whilst I wouldn't be quick to react to this, the reality is these guys rely on their forecasts being accurate to maintain investor confidence in them.  Ergo while they are not always right, they aren't bumbling buffoons either.

Happens all the time 

[cj09beira]

3 hours ago, Bcat00 said:

I do expect AMD shares to fall but not because of the reasons stated in the report.

If anything its due to VEGA being a total flop and they got nothing new to replace Polaris at this point, meaning VOLTA will kill AMD in the coming months.

vega is not a flop at all its a compute beast and it allows amd to enter a much more profitable market, in compute its faster than p100, 

vega also introduced the ssg vega card which i bet people that are into video editing will love as it makes the editing 4k video much faster,

if it was a better bet than aiming it at gamers its another question,

 

[michaelocarroll007]

4 hours ago, AluminiumTech said:

Morgan Stanley,an investment bank, has come out with a new report where it slammed AMD fairly hardcore.

 

The report outlines that Morgan Stanley expects AMD's Graphics related revenue to decline 50% in 2018.

 

They also expect that Game Consoles Sales will decline 5.5% in 2018.

 

Xbox One X is coming out, PS4 Pro (and the PS brand in general) is now being advertised more than ever before and Morgan Stanley thinks that there will be fewer console sales in 2018?

 

Wtf?

 

AMD expects game console sales to continue to be a strength in 2018 for AMD and they expect that Graphics and Computing Revenue will increase in 2018.

 

 

And another example of how people on Wall Street have no idea how the real world works .

 

RIP AMD and their 9% decrease in their stock price as a result of this terrible report.

 

Source:

https://arstechnica.co.uk/tech-policy/2017/10/amd-stock-price-falls-after-report-predicts-cryptocurrency-slowdown/

 

Eh I feel like there being dramatic but sort of right in a way.

 

1. Console sales probably will decline a little. PS4 pro and Xbox one X are not going to and or arent selling like a new console launch and together xbox and ps are comming up to 100 million Units sold. 5.5 % wont affect them much if at all in terms of profit for AMD Though.

 

2. There GPU's have been unattainable in the low- Mid Market  for a while now. Loosing brand recognition. Personally all my friends who only bought PCs for PUBG think AMD is trash for this reason when there not and the people saying that are just badly informed consumers. Though it seems to be how the average people view it.  Realisticlly speaking theres no AMD card for them to buy. 

 

Mix this with the fact this year there out selling and a huge demand. next year that demand might not be there and after the minning demand leaves AMD will be left with less real consumers considering there cards.  Short Term Mining is great but its lasted to long and i think has affected consumers seeing them as a option to some degree.  and there top end cards are not good enough and thats the only cards you can buy. 

 

3. You might not  think wall street knows  what there doing but there in it to make money. They assume AMD will not do as good next year so thats were they will place there bet. nothing wrong then that. in the market everyone just takes whatever they think the best bet is. AMD has taken a crazy stock ride over the last 2 years it had to end and correct it self eventually.

 

 

4. I think Personally overall there underplaying Ryzen as IMO this is where AMD is best positioned to sell some good Products since right now the GPU side is in a mess.  i think this will hold AMD up on the 2018 Profit Reports so they wont drop much if at all by then.

 

 

5. Im probably somewhat Bias TBH ive made an okay amount of money on stocks with AMD Last year  and im into stock trading. 

 

6. If you think its unfair and the stock doesnt deserve to go down. Buy it and make some money next 2 or 3Q profits will Make it go way up a good amount if your right.

[PlayStation 2]

As much I may not give a shit about banking firms and shit, their claim may have merit. 50% drop in the graphics department? Fucking doubt that but there could very well be some sort of drop.

 

Also, lemme let you in a little secret: Wall Street bankers aren't very tech smart. Let's be honest here: we're in a very VERY minuscule minority compared to the rest of the world.

[Misanthrope]

As most of you, I am also not an expert. Far from even an educated amateur in fact.

 

But it occurs to me that AMD it's still a rock bottom cheap stock for a company that could be looking at picking up considerable speed. If I was a stock analyst I might be inclined to convince others AMD will be crashing back down again in order to pick it even cheaper now before it shoots up again.

 

AFAIK this kind of market manipulation is basically standard practice.

[cj09beira]

1 minute ago, Misanthrope said:

As most of you, I am also not an expert. Far from even an educated amateur in fact.

 

But it occurs to me that AMD it's still a rock bottom cheap stock for a company that could be looking at picking up considerable speed. If I was a stock analyst I might be inclined to convince others AMD will be crashing back down again in order to pick it even cheaper now before it shoots up again.

 

AFAIK this kind of market manipulation is basically standard practice.

i agree as amd is entering the server market with force and great products, and we know that area has great profitability

[XenosTech]

5 minutes ago, cj09beira said:

i agree as amd is entering the server market with force and great products, and we know that area has great profitability

If it's one place they'll make money in, it's the enterprise market. Just need DELL to pick up EPYC and tada you have a second major OEM selling your products to big ballers

[michaelocarroll007]

 

13 minutes ago, Dan Castellaneta said:

As much I may not give a shit about banking firms and shit, their claim may have merit. 50% drop in the graphics department? Fucking doubt that but there could very well be some sort of drop.

 

Also, lemme let you in a little secret: Wall Street bankers aren't very tech smart. Let's be honest here: we're in a very VERY minuscule minority compared to the rest of the world.

 i would argue 2018 will have a decent drop in GPU sales % wise for amd . for many moths this year amd has been selling more cards then they can make thus making a High priced card market.  i would bet next year this demand is not going to be as strong. so when they compare Quarter to quarter it will look like they did a lot less in sales.  now it is possible they come back next year with more stock and sell even more it seems unlikely though imo to compare a year of GPU mining craze to a year of regular selling to consumers. 

[cj09beira]

4 minutes ago, XenosTech said:

If it's one place they'll make money in, it's the enterprise market. Just need DELL to pick up EPYC and tada you have a second major OEM selling your products to big ballers

right now its supermicro and hp right? 

i hate how its much harder to find info on server hardware 

hp has the Cloudline CL3150 which really exploits epycs advantages of loads of pcie on p1 servers, 

supermicro seems to have made its servers the same way they always do, 2 cpus low pcie connectivity, the most pcie they offer is 2 x16 and 3 x8 slots

 

[XenosTech]

Just now, cj09beira said:

right now its supermicro and hp right? 

i hate how its much harder to find info on server hardware 

hp has the Cloudline CL3150 which really exploits epycs advantages of loads of pcie on p1 servers, 

supermicro seems to have made its servers the same way they always do, 2 cpus low pcie connectivity, the most pcie they offer is 2 x16 and 3 x8 slots

 

I know HP for sure is on board with EPYC. Maybe @leadeater could shed more light on supermicro's part, wasn't aware they were on board with it too but if they are that's great for AMD.

Tbf enterprise markets are the people who will be able to use all those pcie lanes effectively or at all on TR and EPYC. May find one or two nuts jobs like leadeater and I who may cook up some idea and go test it just for the sake of seeing what would happen  

[cj09beira]

5 minutes ago, XenosTech said:

I know HP for sure is on board with EPYC. Maybe @leadeater could shed more light on supermicro's part, wasn't aware they were on board with it too but if they are that's great for AMD.

Tbf enterprise markets are the people who will be able to use all those pcie lanes effectively or at all on TR and EPYC. May find one or two nuts jobs like leadeater and I who may cook up some idea and go test it just for the sake of seeing what would happen  

from what i can access hpe is the only one with a server made with epyc's strengths in mind, but supermicro has more servers available, hpe only has one

https://www.hpe.com/us/en/product-catalog/servers/cloudline-servers/pip.hpe-cloudline-cl3150-g4-server.1010129707.html

https://www.supermicro.nl/products/nfo/AMD_SP3.cfm?pg=SS

[vorticalbox]

5 hours ago, lots of unexplainable lag said:

150% guaranteed he has shares in the blue and green team. 

maybe he expects the opposite and that amd will do really well and wanted the price to drop so he could buy in at a lower price. 

[IrshaadH]

Honestly, at this point, I'm going to buy Ryzen just to support AMD so they keep making great products.  I don't care it it's worse than Coffee Lake!

[vorticalbox]

51 minutes ago, IrshaadH said:

Honestly, at this point, I'm going to buy Ryzen just to support AMD so they keep making great products.  I don't care it it's worse than Coffee Lake!

I did the same thing when i got my 8350 a good few years back. I knew I was getting less performance than an i5 but in the longterm it's better for me

[cj09beira]

1 minute ago, vorticalbox said:

I did the same thing when i got my 8350 a good few years back. I knew I was getting less performance than an i5 but in the longterm it's better for me

i am probably getting the ryzen refresh on 12nm myself, for me and my brother 

[samcool55]

Let's assume AMD's GPU department basically goes to sh*t. That's not really where the big money is.

The big money is in Epyc which is slowly getting available and being sold. Also the lack of Intel competition in certain parts of the server market will give it a nice boost.

 

It's already clear Intel won't give piles of money to companies like they did before (Dell is a great example of this, they got a lot of money from intel but eventually they gave up and sold AMD stuff anyway, this time they are supporting AMD from day 1 and even supporting threadripper as well) so it will be easier to get systems with Epyc cpu's.

 

And we also know it usually takes a few years until we see results of this, so on paper it looks very good and even ignoring the GPU market, it's very likely AMD will rise from the (almost) death position it used to have.

[CommandMan7]

AMD is still an amazing long term investment, with a total addressable market of $56 billion that's rapidly expanding. 

 

I like to argue that if AMD was a silicon valley startup today, they would be swimming in investment. The only reason their stock is at what it is at, is because they've had a few product flops during the last 10 years. 

 

Imagine a world where AMD never existed. Nvidia / Intel are more or less monopolies with > 95% market share. Suddenly, a new company springs up in silicon valley, selling Vega GPU's and Ryzen CPU's, both of which are within a few percentage points of what Intel and Nvidia have to offer. That company would get an insane valuation! 

 

Unfortunately, taking in the history of AMD leads investors to assume the worst for AMD, rather than value it based on purely technological merits. I'm not saying that AMD will become the dominant player in both CPU and GPU anytime soon, but barring any shady monopolistic tricks from Intel, AMD is set to grow their market share for the foreseeable future.

[MyName13]

Somewhere before or after launching ryzen (or was it Polaris), amd said that they'll issue more stocks (because of the price increase), have they even issued them?How much money have they raised?

 

Back to the topic, aren't they right?Console purchases will most likely decline, mining could also stop just like it did last year when you couldn't have found a single Rx 480 (it launched in June, until  September there was no  stable supply).When mining declines it could definitely have a huge impact on amd.

[Unimportant]

6 hours ago, AluminiumTech said:

And another example of how people on Wall Street have no idea how the real world works .

 

RIP AMD and their 9% decrease in their stock price as a result of this terrible report.

They know better how the real world works then you think.

 

Either:

• They have more information then us, they know what they're talking about, and what they say is true - only future can tell.
• They're making this up to scare away the weak hands and manufacture a sell-off in the stock so they can get in cheaper themselves. Extremely likely.
• They're plain wrong but their report scared away the weak hands. Weak hands would've sold anyway, if not on this scare then the next, a bull can only resume when those weak hands have been shedded anyway.

 

I see nothing wrong with either scenario. If they're right they're right. If they're wrong or just trying to engineer a dump it's the ppl who sold's fault for believing them.

 

[Trixanity]

4 hours ago, Ryujin2003 said:

I thought Dell has drastically improved their quality standard after they went private. Didn't have to cater to stock holders and such.

I'd consider that a unique situation. Dell probably wanted a direction with more creative control so to speak. To do that they either needed to convince shareholders to go along or buyout the company. They decided on the latter. They were a company with huge potential but were in a slump. They managed to convince some investors to go along with the plan.

 

AMD is in a different market and no investors have so far shown any interest in bailing out AMD. They've had to use a variety of methods to get some cold cash to move forward.

It requires massive investments and the prospects are very long term. It's probably in their best interest to work with what they have and try to ride the wave of the stock market. And they're doing so right now. They just need to keep growing and get out from under all the market speculation.

 

Their growth potential is bigger as a public company.

[Trixanity]

20 minutes ago, MyName13 said:

Somewhere before or after launching ryzen (or was it Polaris), amd said that they'll issue more stocks (because of the price increase), have they even issued them?How much money have they raised?

 

Back to the topic, aren't they right?Console purchases will most likely decline, mining could also stop just like it did last year when you couldn't have found a single Rx 480 (it launched in June, until  September there was no  stable supply).When mining declines it could definitely have a huge impact on amd.

They're not necessarily wrong. I do see a decline in mining and the console market will see limited stimulation from the recent upgrades (PS4 Pro and Xbox One X). However it pretty much ignores everything else.

 

We're looking at Epyc and Vega expanding into the very lucrative enterprise segment. We're seeing TR in HEDT and workstations. We're seeing Ryzen APUs recapturing the mobile segment and next year it'll enter the desktop market. So much growth potential that a mining decline and limited growth in consoles is insignificant.

 

The issue is that so called analysts are latching onto one small half-truth in order to manipulate the market while ignoring the elephant in the room. 

 

If we should criticize AMD for anything it should be that they aren't creating new markets like Nvidia and Intel are. Nvidia has automotive, GRID and CUDA. Intel has Xeon Phi, FPGAs, networking, Optane and their foundries.

AMD needs their own thing to push the company forward. Of course they already have problems financing their existing products but it would be enormous for them to get into an emerging market with massive growth potential and where they're dominating resulting in them raking in cash.

[bcredeur97]

If he's betting on cryptocurrencies experiencing a very large and sudden crash, he may be right.

If he's just betting out of the blue though, I don't think he is.

I'm more worried about their CPU's than their GPU's. Zen is good, still good of been better though and with all the effort they put into it, I'm wondering what they have left so they can implement improvements down the line. Good improvements. Not like intel who isn't really doing anything but adding cores and clock speed at this point.

[AnonymousGuy]

I can rant for a good while about how shit AMD's financials and products are, but kinda the wrong audience.

 

Their stock is overpriced as a motherfucker right now.  It's priced on a ludicrous expectation that Intel is basically going to do nothing for the next 3 years and AMD will then be able to recover and win.  It's not going to happen.  NV is better at graphics than AMD by a far distance.  Intel has already made every CPU that AMD put out this year irrelevant and Intel has the resources to completely outrun AMD with ease.  So AMD goes back to being the bitch boy fighting on "value" and that isn't how you become a successful company.

 

You heard it here first: there's no actual recovery plan for AMD, there's a path that leads to doing well enough to be bought out by some random Chinese conglomerate.

[Prysin]

9 hours ago, AluminiumTech said:

Morgan Stanley,an investment bank, has come out with a new report where it slammed AMD fairly hardcore.

 

The report outlines that Morgan Stanley expects AMD's Graphics related revenue to decline 50% in 2018.

 

They also expect that Game Consoles Sales will decline 5.5% in 2018.

 

Xbox One X is coming out, PS4 Pro (and the PS brand in general) is now being advertised more than ever before and Morgan Stanley thinks that there will be fewer console sales in 2018?

 

Wtf?

 

AMD expects game console sales to continue to be a strength in 2018 for AMD and they expect that Graphics and Computing Revenue will increase in 2018.

 

 

And another example of how people on Wall Street have no idea how the real world works .

 

RIP AMD and their 9% decrease in their stock price as a result of this terrible report.

 

Source:

https://arstechnica.co.uk/tech-policy/2017/10/amd-stock-price-falls-after-report-predicts-cryptocurrency-slowdown/

As Carl Benjamin would have said "get bent"

http://www.nextpowerup.com/news/39417/sony-increases-ps4-forecast-as-shipments-reach-67-5m-units/

[Grinners]

This reminds me: can someone please tell Linus that "shorting" a stock doesn't mean betting on it short term. It means betting on it falling in price. It is an inverse play, as opposed to going "long" a stock. 

 

He had this wrong on a WAN show a few months back and it could be a very costly mistake to make.