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Morgan Stanley tries to slam AMD with ridiculous claims in new report

AluminiumTech
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Morgan Stanley,an investment bank, has come out with a new report where it slammed AMD fairly hardcore.

 

The report outlines that Morgan Stanley expects AMD's Graphics related revenue to decline 50% in 2018.

 

They also expect that Game Consoles Sales will decline 5.5% in 2018.

 

Xbox One X is coming out, PS4 Pro (and the PS brand in general) is now being advertised more than ever before and Morgan Stanley thinks that there will be fewer console sales in 2018?

 

Wtf?

 

AMD expects game console sales to continue to be a strength in 2018 for AMD and they expect that Graphics and Computing Revenue will increase in 2018.

 

Quote

On Monday, AMD’s stock price plunged nearly 9 percent after a report by Morgan Stanley, a major investment bank, which found that "microprocessor momentum" has slowed.

 

According to CNBC, a new report by analyst Joseph Moore found that "cryptocurrency mining driven sales for AMD's graphics chips will decline by 50 percent next year or a $250 million decline in revenue. He also forecasts video game console demand will decline by 5.5 percent in 2018."

Once a veritable competitor to Intel, AMD has struggled in recent years, although it has had some modest successes—as measured by a rise in its stock price—in 2016 and 2017.

 

And another example of how people on Wall Street have no idea how the real world works :(.

 

RIP AMD and their 9% decrease in their stock price as a result of this terrible report.

 

Source:

https://arstechnica.co.uk/tech-policy/2017/10/amd-stock-price-falls-after-report-predicts-cryptocurrency-slowdown/

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You forgot the part where he essentially started the only reason their GPUs still is because of crypto currency, and how that is going to be a short lived fad, then AMD will fall again.

 

In my unpaid professional opinion, I thought it was full of crap.

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15 minutes ago, Ryujin2003 said:

You forgot the part where he essentially started the only reason their GPUs still is because of crypto currency, and how that is going to be a short lived fad, then AMD will fall again.

 

In my unpaid professional opinion, I thought it was full of crap.

People are buying AMD GPUs outside of mining stuff.

 

It's not 100% Nvidia yet.

Judge a product on its own merits AND the company that made it.

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Just now, AluminiumTech said:

People are buying AMD GPUs outside of mining stuff.

 

It's not 100% Nvidia yet.

Will, according to what I read yesterday about the Morgan Stanley thing, here "knows" otherwise.

 

The whole thing seemed very slanted for some reason. Like they were invested in another competing company and needed to knock someone down.

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Just now, Ryujin2003 said:

Will, according to what I read yesterday about the Morgan Stanley thing, here "knows" otherwise.

That is factually incorrect.

 

Judge a product on its own merits AND the company that made it.

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3 hours ago, AluminiumTech said:

That is factually incorrect.

 

Quote

Morgan Stanley reduces its rating for AMD shares to underweight from equal-weight, predicting cryptocurrency mining and gaming console demand for its graphics chip business will falter in 2018.

Quote

AMD's "fundamental outlook is not quite as robust as microprocessor momentum has been slow to build, offset by cryptocurrency gains," analyst Joseph Moore wrote in a note to clients Monday. "We believe that AMD's graphics surge has been caused by a sharp increase in sales of graphics chips to cryptocurrency miners. We expect this to meaningfully decelerate next year."

Quote

The analyst predicts cryptocurrency mining driven sales for AMD's graphics chips will decline by 50 percent next year or a $250 million decline in revenue. He also forecasts video game console demand will decline by 5.5 percent in 2018.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/30/amd-shares-crater-after-morgan-stanley-downgrades.html

 

Edit


No response, and see it's in your original post.. so you're welcome?

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I do expect AMD shares to fall but not because of the reasons stated in the report.

If anything its due to VEGA being a total flop and they got nothing new to replace Polaris at this point, meaning VOLTA will kill AMD in the coming months.

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51 minutes ago, lots of unexplainable lag said:

150% guaranteed he has shares in the blue and green team. 

 

That would be deemed both unethical and illegal, Not to mention easy to prove.  So not likely unless the authors have just had multiple strokes and are as yet unaware.

 

Whilst I wouldn't be quick to react to this, the reality is these guys rely on their forecasts being accurate to maintain investor confidence in them.  Ergo while they are not always right, they aren't bumbling buffoons either.

Grammar and spelling is not indicative of intelligence/knowledge.  Not having the same opinion does not always mean lack of understanding.  

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I don't think you understand what is being said.

The financial institution Morgan Stanley is NOT saying that less people will have console, but rather the console sale that has AMD chips inside will diminish from before. In other words, say 100 people per year buys an XBox One or PS4. Morgan Stanley is saying that in 2018, the console sales will be: 94.5.

This view is probably because they see the demand of the XBox One X and PS4 Pro being less and/or the Nintendo Switch eating in.

 

If you look at the Nintendo Switch, it has surpassed all expectations, and is in course to surpass WiiU all time sales, and reaching Wii level sales numbers, and didn't even pass 1 holiday season. The console has already outsold PS4 in Canada this year.

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4 minutes ago, mr moose said:

 

That would be deemed both unethical and illegal, Not to mention easy to prove.  So not likely unless the authors have just had multiple strokes and are as yet unaware.

 

Whilst I wouldn't be quick to react to this, the reality is these guys rely on their forecasts being accurate to maintain investor confidence in them.  Ergo while they are not always right, they aren't bumbling buffoons either.

I always felt because of their "forecasts", people immediately react to these statements, and this stuff happens. Not because it was going to anyways, but because of basic manipulation. People want to keep their money.

 

Granted, I don't do stocks so I don't have that "experience".

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2 minutes ago, GoodBytes said:

I don't think you understand what is being said.

The financial institution Morgan Stanley is NOT saying that less people will have console, but rather the console sale that has AMD chips inside will diminish from before. In other words, say 100 people per year buys an XBox One or PS4. Morgan Stanley is saying that in 2018, the console sales will be: 94.5.

This view is probably because they see the demand of the XBox One X and PS4 Pro being less and/or the Nintendo Switch eating in.

 

If you look at the Nintendo Switch, it has surpassed all expectations, and is in course to surpass WiiU all time sales, and reaching Wii level sales numbers, and didn't even pass 1 holiday season. The console has already outsold PS4 in Canada this year.

Well, you cannot have more that 100% of the population having these consoles, so if for example 70% have them, then you only have the remaining 30% that may or may not but for one reason or another.

 

The slope on the demand curve isn't as high as it used to be.

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2 minutes ago, Ryujin2003 said:

I always felt because of their "forecasts", people immediately react to these statements, and this stuff happens. Not because it was going to anyways, but because of basic manipulation. People want to keep their money.

 

Granted, I don't do stocks so I don't have that "experience".

 

Chicken egg thing, yes there is a bit of that,  But most investors (read: experienced and successful) don't take all their info from the one source. 

Grammar and spelling is not indicative of intelligence/knowledge.  Not having the same opinion does not always mean lack of understanding.  

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1 minute ago, GoodBytes said:

I don't think you understand what is being said.

The financial institution Morgan Stanley is NOT saying that less people will have console, but rather the console sale that has AMD chips inside will diminish from before. In other words, say 100 people per year buys an XBox One or PS4. Morgan Stanley is saying that in 2018, the console sales will be: 94.5.

I'm fully aware of what they mean. I don't expect sales next year to be 90 if this year's was 100.

 

Xbox One X has had better pre-order sales than the original Xbox One did in 2013.

 

PS4 Pro is being aggressively advertised and marketed at the mainstream.

1 minute ago, GoodBytes said:

This view is probably because they see the demand of the XBox One X and PS4 Pro being less and/or the Nintendo Switch eating in.

Again, I don't see Switch sales eating into Xbox One X and PS4 Pro sales.

 

They're for completely different purposes and different people.

1 minute ago, GoodBytes said:

If you look at the Nintendo Switch, it has surpassed all expectations, and is in course to surpass WiiU all time sales, and reaching Wii level sales numbers, and didn't even pass 1 holiday season. The console has already outsold PS4 in Canada this year.

Lifetime Base PS4 sales are over 50 Million units sold.

 

I think the majority of sales from the Consoles for the remainder of this generation will be the Gen8.5 Pro Consoles.

 

I think Base PS4 will decline in sales but I expect PS4 Pro and Xbox One X to sell well in 2018.

 

1 minute ago, Ryujin2003 said:

Well, you cannot have more that 100% of the population having these consoles, so if for example 70% have them, then you only have the remaining 30% that may or may not but for one reason or another.

 

The slope on the demand curve isn't as high as it used to be.

The issue isn't 70% of customers having a Console.

 

Sony and to some extent Microsoft, are both targeting existing customers and new customers with the Pro consoles.

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The stock market isn't the real world and traders don't care about things like facts.

 

It's all about belief and manipulation. The stock market is using AMD to make money and that means they need to make the stock go up and down to serve those purposes. Nothing points to an actual decline (at least not in the grand scheme of things) so they get an 'expert' to come out and say it'll decline causing people to panic and sell. It's pure manipulation because it isn't based in reality. These investors were annoyed that AMD's stock recently rose. We can only imagine that they've previously sold off a large chunk of stock and wanted the price to drop significantly so they can buy it back cheaper. Rinse and repeat. 

 

It's just pump and dump perpetually. They have no interest in the company itself but it's a decent volatile stock. As we frequently see, their actual performance in the industry doesn't matter; what matters is what traders expected and what they wanted to happen. It's so artificial that it's wonder it's still allowed to exist in its current form: people can create money out of thin air by stirring the rumor mill.

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1 minute ago, Trixanity said:

The stock market isn't the real world and traders don't care about things like facts.

 

It's all about belief and manipulation. The stock market is using AMD to make money and that means they need to make the stock go up and down to serve those purposes. Nothing points to an actual decline (at least not in the grand scheme of things) so they get an 'expert' to come out and say it'll decline causing people to panic and sell. It's pure manipulation because it isn't based in reality. These investors were annoyed that AMD's stock recently rose. We can only imagine that they've previously sold off a large chunk of stock and wanted the price to drop significantly so they can buy it back cheaper. Rinse and repeat. 

 

It's just pump and dump perpetually. They have no interest in the company itself but it's a decent volatile stock. As we frequently see, their actual performance in the industry doesn't matter; what matters is what traders expected and what they wanted to happen. It's so artificial that it's wonder it's still allowed to exist in its current form: people can create money out of thin air by stirring the rumor mill.

If AMD had the money to buy back all their stock then wouldn't it be a good idea for them to do so?

 

Rather than pointlessly struggle to make investors happy.

Judge a product on its own merits AND the company that made it.

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Just now, AluminiumTech said:

If AMD had the money to buy back all their stock then wouldn't it be a good idea for them to do so?

 

Rather than pointlessly struggle to make investors happy.

They just need 4-5 years of growth and I'd imagine it being stable to the point where investors stop speculating in AMD and we'll stop seeing their stock drop despite the best performance in over a decade.

 

I don't think they'd want to buy their stock back. That would almost amount to pulling a Dell (outright buying the company back and making it private again). Their stock performance does help their financials. Although I'd honestly have preferred that Apple (or the like) invested some billions in the company years ago. It would have helped AMD be more competitive today and would have prevented them from making some bad decisions that they were forced to make to get money (like selling out to China and if we go further back: selling Adreno). If they had a solid long term investor it would also stabilize their stock as it'll signal trust in the company but let's be honest: everyone expected AMD to crash sometime in the last 5 years. No one wanted to touch it in fear of it blowing up in their faces. 

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1 hour ago, Trixanity said:

They just need 4-5 years of growth and I'd imagine it being stable to the point where investors stop speculating in AMD and we'll stop seeing their stock drop despite the best performance in over a decade.

 

I don't think they'd want to buy their stock back. That would almost amount to pulling a Dell (outright buying the company back and making it private again). Their stock performance does help their financials. Although I'd honestly have preferred that Apple (or the like) invested some billions in the company years ago. It would have helped AMD be more competitive today and would have prevented them from making some bad decisions that they were forced to make to get money (like selling out to China and if we go further back: selling Adreno). If they had a solid long term investor it would also stabilize their stock as it'll signal trust in the company but let's be honest: everyone expected AMD to crash sometime in the last 5 years. No one wanted to touch it in fear of it blowing up in their faces. 

I thought Dell has drastically improved their quality standard after they went private. Didn't have to cater to stock holders and such.

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1 hour ago, AluminiumTech said:

If AMD had the money to buy back all their stock then wouldn't it be a good idea for them to do so?

 

Rather than pointlessly struggle to make investors happy.

Making a company public allows growth that could not be achieved or very hard to achieved.

The reality of things is that a stock does well if their is potential and achieving your goals. For example, if you sold 1 billion hot cakes this year. Great! But if next year you can't managed to make some people to buy 2 hot cakes instead of 1, blocking you to another, at best 1 billion hot cakes, then investors and share holders will pull out.. as you have no growth potential. Look at Apple, their stock was about to stabilize or maybe go down before they entered China market, as they could not manage to grow their market shares. Now that they open to China, investors are like: "WOW! You managed to go in, in China, and everyone in China wants to get your phones for ages! The demand is here, the market is massive! Here is more money to help you out, so that you succeed and I get my money back plus more!"

 

But the above is a simplification. In the tech industry it is more complicated, as you have the performance of the big companies that impact small ones. So for example, you can have Nvidia showing great earning reports and exciting products with lots of potential, but then Intel performance was crap.. so as a result Nvidia stocks goes down to the toilet.

The big problem with technology stock is that most investors and shareholders aren't tech savvy. Many don't even know a thing. So they base it on: how good the sales pitch was, and basing their decision on the performance of larger companies, with the mentality of "They are big, so they must know everything. If they fail, that means it is signs that the whole industry will crash and burn".

 

If you go into investing, you'll quickly notice that it is about looking at history behavior of situations to know if a stock will go up or down. Now they are many factors that comes into play, so it is difficult to determine, but what is really hard, is knowing what are the peaks in lows and highs. The stop might go up, then down a lot, thinking that you reached the peak and sale everything, but it jump back up the next day, and continue to climb, and when it goes up, when is it about to go down? Look at Apple, no one predicted the shares going up and up and up and up... I mean, at the global level, it is is a nice line graph that goes up, but up close, the stock goes up and down a lot, and sometimes so down that it looks like it is end of it. So yes, it is very hard, and of course, you look at other, larger, companies performance, as well as a factor of success. Analyzing all that is a full time job, and that is why you have Financial Analyst. And each analyst uses various techniques, proven methods, to annalist all this, and this is why they came up with different results.

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2 hours ago, GoodBytes said:

I don't think you understand what is being said.

The financial institution Morgan Stanley is NOT saying that less people will have console, but rather the console sale that has AMD chips inside will diminish from before. In other words, say 100 people per year buys an XBox One or PS4. Morgan Stanley is saying that in 2018, the console sales will be: 94.5.

This view is probably because they see the demand of the XBox One X and PS4 Pro being less and/or the Nintendo Switch eating in.

 

If you look at the Nintendo Switch, it has surpassed all expectations, and is in course to surpass WiiU all time sales, and reaching Wii level sales numbers, and didn't even pass 1 holiday season. The console has already outsold PS4 in Canada this year.

Are you sure? I just saw a graph and the Wii had close to 120 million units sold and the switch was close to 32 million.

ƆԀ S₱▓Ɇ▓cs: i7 6ʇɥפᴉƎ00K (4.4ghz), Asus DeLuxe X99A II, GT҉X҉1҉0҉8҉0 Zotac Amp ExTrꍟꎭe),Si6F4Gb D???????r PlatinUm, EVGA G2 Sǝʌǝᘉ5ᙣᙍᖇᓎᙎᗅᖶt, Phanteks Enthoo Primo, 3TB WD Black, 500gb 850 Evo, H100iGeeTeeX, Windows 10, K70 R̸̢̡̭͍͕̱̭̟̩̀̀̃́̃͒̈́̈́͑̑́̆͘͜ͅG̶̦̬͊́B̸͈̝̖͗̈́, G502, HyperX Cloud 2s, Asus MX34. פN∩SW∀S 960 EVO

Just keeping this here as a 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1 hour ago, mr moose said:

 

That would be deemed both unethical and illegal, Not to mention easy to prove.  So not likely unless the authors have just had multiple strokes and are as yet unaware.

 

Whilst I wouldn't be quick to react to this, the reality is these guys rely on their forecasts being accurate to maintain investor confidence in them.  Ergo while they are not always right, they aren't bumbling buffoons either.

Someone has a "book" to move. The analysts don't own the shares. They're pushed by someone else to render these opinions.

 

http://www.investopedia.com/news/amd-short-interest-hits-record-high/

 

Ask Google and ye shall receive. 

 

There's between 900mil & 1bil USD of Short Positions, at an average price of, say, $13 per share. Last Quarter, so some groups need to unwind those shorts. So you have someone put out negative guidance and let the robots drive the stock down for you. 

 

You can never actually prove this happens, but it's how they play the game with smaller stocks. I don't talk about Stocks for this reason. I just know too much of the process. Most of the market is driven by "robots", which have a significant number that are scanning for information. You just need someone to drop a "negative outlook" and boom, you can unwind your Short position you've held all year.

 

You can't pull this trick off with the bigger stocks, but the smaller ones? They've been doing this stuff for over 100 years.

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1 minute ago, BuckGup said:

Are you sure? I just saw a graph and the Wii had close to 120 million units sold and the switch was close to 32 million.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2017/171031_2e.pdf

See page 9. It follows Wii line, with the prediction that it will go further up, bringing close to the Wii line, this holiday.

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I agree somewhat with it but console sales and CPU sales will be a big boost, GPU market for AMD has always been a smaller part of the business.

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