AMD's Zen will tape out in the next months - this is confusing

[zMeul]

source - trascript of Q&A session at Raymond James Technology Investors Conference: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3741456-advanced-micro-devices-amd-at-raymond-james-technology-investors-conference-transcript?page=4

the important bit:

Hans Mosesmann - Raymond James & Associates.

So, as Zen, the new x86-based processor; high-end. It's your return potentially into the data center/server area. What's the timing?

Devinder Kumar - Chief Financial Officer

Zen was a clean sheet design that started few years ago. We are in the final figure of executing and the milestone that you want hear us talk about is Zen tapping out, which should be over the next several months. And then putting samples in the hands of our customer and then starting portfolio of revenue in 2017. And by the way, because we have this reuse approach for cores, you will see us with Zen cores in the high-end desktop first and then the server from our overall products standpoint. But the key is tapping out in the next several months, samples and customers for the validation of the product over the 2016 time frame and then the revenue ramp happening in 2016.

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OK ... I'm confused, really confused   this transcript is about a week old, I wanted to post it then but I hoped someone will shed some light .. it didn't happened 

didn't AMD said that Zen already taped out!? wasn't' Zen for servers to be delivered 1st, followed by desktop?

taping out in the next several months means that no way we'll see Zen in 2016

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tom's hardware interpretation: AMD's Next Gen Products Taped Out, Possibly Delayed

However, if Kumar’s aforementioned 12-14 month timeline holds true, this puts the release of both AMD’s Zen CPUs and the Arctic Islands GPUs back to the second half of 2016 at earliest, and they may arrive as late as Q1 2017.

[Lord_Karango17]

What exactly does "taping out" mean?

[Sauron]

OK ... I'm confused, really confused 

didn't AMD said that Zen already taped out!? wasn't' Zen for servers to be delivered 1st followed by desktop?

 

those were all pretty much on the rumour level iirc. what they said still doesn't mean we won't be seeing it in 2016, maybe just in q3/q4 instead of q2.

[totjup5]

I thought it already was taped out....

[zMeul]

those were all pretty much on the rumour level iirc. what they said still doesn't mean we won't be seeing it in 2016, maybe just in q3/q4 instead of q2.

there's no way for a 2016 launch, quoting him:

And then putting samples in the hands of our customer and then starting portfolio of revenue in 2017.

[Sidiox]

AMD better make this one count. A delay or something like that (which this kinda feels like) isn't bad, as long as it beats ass. 

[Sauron]

there's no way for a 2016 launch, quoting him:

 

in 2017 they will "start portfolio of revenue", this would happen AFTER "putting samples in the hands of our customers" according to the phrasing. The "and then" is key.

[Mr_Troll]

still in time for the Q4 launch..... 

[Altecice]

What exactly does "taping out" mean?

 

Finalizing the design of the chip.. aka "taping out" the location of traces/transistors for final production.

[Lord_Karango17]

Finalizing the design of the chip.. aka "taping out" the location of traces/transistors for final production.

Oh wow, I assumed they had the chips finalized if they plan to bring it out next year.

[zMeul]

in 2017 they will "start portfolio of revenue", this would happen AFTER "putting samples in the hands of our customers" according to the phrasing. The "and then" is key.

samples does not mean retail units - they are engineering samples sent to mobo manufacturers to ensure everything is set for the launch; BIOS micro-code updates and such

[Altecice]

Oh wow, I assumed they had the chips finalized if they plan to bring it out next year.

 

So brings that "this is confusing" part .

[dalekphalm]

in 2017 they will "start portfolio of revenue", this would happen AFTER "putting samples in the hands of our customers" according to the phrasing. The "and then" is key.

Indeed. Still possible to see a 2016 launch.

 

However, I think we can all agree that Devinder Kumar did NOT answer that question in a clear manner. His wording was clunky and imprecise.

[Starelementpoke]

Indeed. Still possible to see a 2016 launch.

 

However, I think we can all agree that Devinder Kumar did NOT answer that question in a clear manner. His wording was clunky and imprecise.

Like the FX series?

[Alurit]

What exactly does "taping out" mean?

it' because they used to send the design of the chip to the fab on a tab, but here's a video of one of the creators of ARM explaining at 5:20

[Agent181]

Isn't that just deciding the layout for the mobo?

[StainlessSR]

Tape out on Wiki

Starting production hopefully will not take that long. Most sites are quoting that conference and saying samples by spring and customer offerings in the fall/winter (just in time for back to school or christmas, both high sales area's in the US). And that full year earnings will be in 2016. However, that being said there are also sites which state that it will be delayed till 2017 (a much smaller percentage of sites). As Devinder Kumar's words (as reported by that transcription that you linked to) are as clear as mud on this subject (he does not say `it will be availible on this day/month`), who knows.

 

I have held up a system upgrade waiting to see how Zen does, and am hoping it does well and is priced competivly [ie. lower than intel](i5 price for 4 core w/hyperthreading or i7-4core price for i7x 6+ core performace and threading would be very hard on intel). I am willing to wait till next fall (end of Q3/ begining of Q4), (as there are supposed to be a lot of new graphics card offerings next year), but not sure about waiting till 1stQ 2017.

[ZetZet]

Can I post the obligatory candle?

[Fred Castellum]

Their stock is probably going to tank... better start shorting them.

[NuclearPeace]

What exactly does "taping out" mean?

 

It means that the design of the architecture and its resultant CPUs is done and its ready for production.

[SurvivorNVL]

By the time Zen is out.. they got Broadwell-E, and Kaby to deal with and on top of that they got Skylake-E around the corner.  Man--well, at least Radeon Technologies Group is a thing.

[dalekphalm]

By the time Zen is out.. they got Broadwell-E, and Kaby to deal with and on top of that they got Skylake-E around the corner.  Man--well, at least Radeon Technologies Group is a thing.

Broadwell-E isn't going to be too much of a concern. Most of their "high-end" competition is likely going to be focused on High-End Consumer grade, so Core i5 and i7, not the Extreme or Workstation variants.

 

They will of course have products in those categories too, but even most "high end" PC gamers won't be touching Broadwell-E.

[Dabombinable]

2017 is around the time they'll have a CPU that competes with Haswell for performance (TBH looking at previous launches, I'm expecting a fair bit less performance than what AMD is predicting) and Skylake for the latest features. AMD seems to have shot itself in the foot not trying to replace Bulldozer/Vishera ASAP. Well done AMD you've put yourselves even further behind.

[Tomsen]

Abusement of the english language. No concrete statements.

 

 

2017 is around the time they'll have a CPU that competes with Haswell for performance (TBH looking at previous launches, I'm expecting a fair bit less performance than what AMD is predicting) and Skylake for the latest features. AMD seems to have shot itself in the foot not trying to replace Bulldozer/Vishera ASAP. Well done AMD you've put yourselves even further behind.

You might want to read up on history. That is exactly what they did. Hence why steamroller and excavator did a quick 180 turn.

Well done.

[Trixanity]

Well, if we assume Zen is hitting the performance levels of say Haswell, then that would be fine. I mean Zen should have 8 core SKUs and Haswell is Haswell regardless of mainstream or enthusiast platform. So technically it would be competitive with both platforms since they should be more or less the same architecturally.

Of course, the enthusiast platform has the high core count, higher tdp, larger caches and I guess some tweaks along with the x99 chipset. But my point is IPC etc is roughly the same and looking at benchmarks a 4790k beats 5930k in single threaded work loads (higher clock speeds of course).

So if Zen can match that, it'll scale up and down to compete with both platforms which means it shouldn't be that far off a broadwell-e.

Of course all of this assumes AMD hits their target, which remains to be seen.