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Elon Musk and the AI Team introduce The Tesla Bot at AI day, talk about FSD and their DOJO AI supercomputer

Guest willies leg
By Guest willies leg
in Tech News
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Posted
4 hours ago, willies leg said:

 

You have perhaps the biggest misunderstanding of AI of anyone I've dealt with. Every comment of yours distances yourself from the reality that is AI, how it works, and what it's used for. But that's ok, not everybody's on board or has the capacity to understand these things. I remember watching Triumph of The Nerds on PBS, Only some fully understood the big picture and created the future. The rest rode into it, or got dragged into it.

 

 

From how it works, the AI model  is where you want to be. So you build logic, like "don't go forward if there's a pedestrian." Pretty soon that logic gets absorbed by the AI model and you take it out of the code. And part of the AI model is trained by humans, "ask the fleet", and other parts are by people at a computer.

 

Cool another hostile personal attack and an extremely shallow explanation. You said you have worked in the industry for years could you explain in much greater detail whats happening?

▓ƆԀ▓ S▓₱▓Ɇ▓c▓s▓: i7 6ʇɥפᴉƎ00K (4.4ghz), Asus DeLuxe X99A II, GT҉X҉1҉0҉8҉0 Zotac Amp ExTrꍟꎭe),Si6F4Gb D???????r PlatinUm, EVGA G2 Sǝʌǝᘉ5ᙣᙍᖇᓎᙎᗅᖶt, Phanteks Enthoo Primo, 3TB WD Black, 500gb 850 Evo, H100iGeeTeeX, Windows 10, K70 R̸̢̡̭͍͕̱̭̟̩̀̀̃́̃͒̈́̈́͑̑́̆͘͜ͅG̶̦̬͊́B̸͈̝̖͗̈́, G502, HyperX Cloud 2s, Asus MX34. פN∩SW∀S 960 EVO

Just keeping this here as a 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On 8/20/2021 at 9:09 PM, AnonymousGuy said:

But auto park straight up never worked.  Summon never worked.  You have to manually confirm every traffic signal whether to stop or continue.  Hills and curves require intervention especially with oncoming traffic.  A bunch of times where the car would just brake for no apparent reason.  Even a single lane splitting to two lanes makes it freak out.  It didn't react when it was passing a car on a curve that decided they wanted to drift into my lane.  I learned the traction control is really good from that one though.

I don't think it was a brand new Model 3, as the issues you described scream as phantom braking caused by radar incorrectly detecting things.  The Telsa Vision update though apparently eliminated the phantom braking issues...well there is still slowing on crests, but that's due to limited visibility.

 

Also, traffic light confirming is eliminated in the newer beta FSD's and will likely be out within the next year.  Auto-park and smart summon really were features that haven't been given much tlc (well summon straight up has been said as just being a novelty until the rest of the tech gets better).  There are great leaps of improvement that are happening, and the other car companies are relying on a lot more rigid technology that won't really be able to advance much further

3735928559 - Beware of the dead beef

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On 8/20/2021 at 9:09 PM, AnonymousGuy said:

I was just driving a brand new M3 around Seattle and Portland last week.  It is hugely overhyped what FSD is capable of.

You weren’t using the FSD beta which has all the advancements. Autopilot is just adaptive cruse control with steering. Navigate on autopilot adds automatic lane changes and can take exits and entrances for you. The FSD beta is only open to a few hundred people or less. AI Driver is a great YouTube channel that covers the FSD beta. 

My posts are in a constant state of editing :)

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On 8/20/2021 at 11:16 PM, CarlBar said:

And then you get to situations where some quirk of the road layout makes it impossible to handle the situations in accordance with all relevant road rules, or where the accepted human method of coping with somthing doesn't exactly match up with the rules as written. An AI is never going to be able to cope well with those, it's kind of inherent in the limitations of logical action

The FSD beta already has creeping for vision and will drive over yellow lines to pass stopped vehicles. There was one update to the beta that made that behaviour too strong and the car kept wanting to drive around cars waiting at stoplights and stop signs. It’s capable of bending the rules the way humans do. 

My posts are in a constant state of editing :)

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All "AI" we have right now is just an expert system with a fancy algorithm.

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On 8/20/2021 at 3:30 PM, StDragon said:

Disclaimer: My commentary isn't political, it's based on economics. 

It's an R&D project. In reality at least here in America, we have MILLIONs of immigrants that are looking for work. You could probably get them on a work visa for minimum wage. Both relatively competent, skilled, and cheap.

About the only place these bots are good for is if working in industrial hazardous conditions where it would normally be a liability involving the safety of human lives.

That aside, in most cases a purpose built robot is a lot more efficient than getting a robotic humanoid to operate a machine designed for humans.

 

Thinking of Tesla's own self-driving cars - it's not like there's a humanoid co-pilot ready to take over the wheel, is there?

 

I don't quite know what use case they have in mind for this but, at a first glance, this seems about as stupid an idea as the hyperloop. Designed for reddit likes rather than to be useful or innovative.

On 8/20/2021 at 2:49 PM, willies leg said:

Look out Boston Dynamics, you're about to get your ass kicked.

Boston Dynamics's main area of research is robots that walk. Their goal isn't making humanoid operators to automate human tasks. If Tesla attempts to recreate similar impressive results in walking stability and, on top of that, make the robot essentially a human dexterity equivalent, one of these units is probably going to cost like a supercar and never pay for itself. There are plenty of cheap and efficient robotic arms that can easily carry out most repetitive human tasks.

Don't ask to ask, just ask... please 🤨

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On 8/21/2021 at 1:39 PM, BuckGup said:

Cool another hostile personal attack and an extremely shallow explanation. You said you have worked in the industry for years could you explain in much greater detail whats happening?

 

Look, I've got  real shit to do, it's not my job to help you out, it's your job to understand things. But I'll give it one last shot, after that you're on your own, pal.

 

Your original post:

"I'd also like to add the full self driving is for sunny California, Seattle, and Austin roads. These usually have nice visible lines and signs with other cars around. Otherwise autopilot simply does not work on snow covered roads, road signs that have been used for target practice, dirt roads, roads lacking lines, and I'm unsure if it works in roundabouts/rotaries."

 

What you are talking about is sensors and cameras, not AI. AI doesn't care about snow, signs, dirt roads, sun, rain, shit on a shingle.

If the AI's been trained to understand where it's safe to drive, it will, and in fact, does, drive there. Snow and target practice road signs are irrelevant to the model, just like elephants and shooting stars.

 

Furthermore, Tesla's AI is superior in that it understands context and objects have a lifespan. So, if a sign says stop ahead, it'll remember that for a period of time.

It knows where it's safe to drive, and where it's not safe to drive. It can come up with thousands of scenarios to get in the left lane to make a left turn ahead, calculating and using AI to figure out what's the most comfortable and least likely to cause an accident. They have a large back end system, and are building perhaps the most powerful in the world, next generation AI system, their DOJO machine. Nothing comes close.

 

I use AI in non-vision, non-image processing systems. For me the AI stream is just data, % confidence, and output. Our company is building something for the back end that's pretty revolutionary in the network routing space. I can't say much more beyond that, you'll see in a few years. Or you might not, you'll still be stewing around openly accusing others of personal attacks while you're refusing to learn. So I don't really care. I'll be set. I wish you luck, and past that I've given you more to think about than you deserve. Consider it a gift. I've got to get back to work.

 

 

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17 minutes ago, willies leg said:

 

Look, I've got  real shit to do, it's not my job to help you out, it's your job to understand things. But I'll give it one last shot, after that you're on your own, pal.

 

Your original post:

"'d also like to add the full self driving is for sunny California, Seattle, and Austin roads. These usually have nice visible lines and signs with other cars around. Otherwise autopilot simply does not work on snow covered roads, road signs that have been used for target practice, dirt roads, roads lacking lines, and I'm unsure if it works in roundabouts/rotaries."

 

What you are talking about is sensors and cameras, not AI. AI doesn't care about snow, signs, dirt roads, sun, rain, shit on a shingle.

If the AI's been trained to understand where it's safe to drive, it will, and in fact, does, drive there. Snow and target practice road signs are irrelevant to the model, just like elephants and shooting stars.

So how is this AI suppose to know anything without input from its sensors. Thats like saying I know how to drive a car so I can just close my eyes and drive a car. No you need input from your eyes and sensors to then use your brain to make decisions. Thats the whole point in training and having models. You say its my job to understand yet you explain things like utter shit because you lack an in depth understanding of the material. A good teacher doesnt berate and belittle a student for trying to learn. No one asked if you were busy or have a job and you just keep saying that to put yourself above others or justify how you are better or some weird insecurity you have. I am curious how the technology works and the only thing you have provided is a brief vague run down of someone whos watched an hour long intro to machine learning video. You also mentioned how AI excels at edge cases and never failed to comment how this is very wrong and not applicable. Tesla is making great strides but you lack the technical info I am looking for so if you cant provide more info then dont make another comment its not doing anything for anyone 

▓ƆԀ▓ S▓₱▓Ɇ▓c▓s▓: i7 6ʇɥפᴉƎ00K (4.4ghz), Asus DeLuxe X99A II, GT҉X҉1҉0҉8҉0 Zotac Amp ExTrꍟꎭe),Si6F4Gb D???????r PlatinUm, EVGA G2 Sǝʌǝᘉ5ᙣᙍᖇᓎᙎᗅᖶt, Phanteks Enthoo Primo, 3TB WD Black, 500gb 850 Evo, H100iGeeTeeX, Windows 10, K70 R̸̢̡̭͍͕̱̭̟̩̀̀̃́̃͒̈́̈́͑̑́̆͘͜ͅG̶̦̬͊́B̸͈̝̖͗̈́, G502, HyperX Cloud 2s, Asus MX34. פN∩SW∀S 960 EVO

Just keeping this here as a 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̌̅̒̾̈́̆͌̌̾̎̽̐̅̏́̈̔͛̀̋̃͊̒̓͗͒̑͒̃͂̌̄̇̑̇͛̆̾͛̒̇̍̒̓̀̈́̄̐͂̍͊͗̎̔͌͛̂̏̉̊̎͗͊͒̂̈̽̊́̔̊̃͑̈́̑̌̋̓̅̔́́͒̄̈́̈̂͐̈̅̈̓͌̓͊́̆͌̉͐̊̉͛̓̏̓̅̈́͂̉̒̇̉̆̀̍̄̇͆͛̏̉̑̃̓͂́͋̃̆̒͋̓͊̄́̓̕̕̕̚͘͘͘̚̕̚͘̕̕͜͜͝͝͝͠͝͝͝͝͠ͅS̷̢̨̧̢̡̨̢̨̢̨̧̧̨̧͚̱̪͇̱̮̪̮̦̝͖̜͙̘̪̘̟̱͇͎̻̪͚̩͍̠̹̮͚̦̝̤͖̙͔͚̙̺̩̥̻͈̺̦͕͈̹̳̖͓̜͚̜̭͉͇͖̟͔͕̹̯̬͍̱̫̮͓̙͇̗̙̼͚̪͇̦̗̜̼̠͈̩̠͉͉̘̱̯̪̟͕̘͖̝͇̼͕̳̻̜͖̜͇̣̠̹̬̗̝͓̖͚̺̫͛̉̅̐̕͘͜͜͜͜ͅͅͅ.̶̨̢̢̨̢̨̢̛̻͙̜̼̮̝̙̣̘̗̪̜̬̳̫̙̮̣̹̥̲̥͇͈̮̟͉̰̮̪̲̗̳̰̫̙͍̦̘̠̗̥̮̹̤̼̼̩͕͉͕͇͙̯̫̩̦̟̦̹͈͔̱̝͈̤͓̻̟̮̱͖̟̹̝͉̰͊̓̏̇͂̅̀̌͑̿͆̿̿͗̽̌̈́̉̂̀̒̊̿͆̃̄͑͆̃̇͒̀͐̍̅̃̍̈́̃̕͘͜͜͝͠͠z̴̢̢̡̧̢̢̧̢̨̡̨̛̛̛̛̛̛̛̛̲͚̠̜̮̠̜̞̤̺͈̘͍̻̫͖̣̥̗̙̳͓͙̫̫͖͍͇̬̲̳̭̘̮̤̬̖̼͎̬̯̼̮͔̭̠͎͓̼̖̟͈͓̦̩̦̳̙̮̗̮̩͙͓̮̰̜͎̺̞̝̪͎̯̜͈͇̪̙͎̩͖̭̟͎̲̩͔͓͈͌́̿͐̍̓͗͑̒̈́̎͂̋͂̀͂̑͂͊͆̍͛̄̃͌͗̌́̈̊́́̅͗̉͛͌͋̂̋̇̅̔̇͊͑͆̐̇͊͋̄̈́͆̍̋̏͑̓̈́̏̀͒̂̔̄̅̇̌̀̈́̿̽̋͐̾̆͆͆̈̌̿̈́̎͌̊̓̒͐̾̇̈́̍͛̅͌̽́̏͆̉́̉̓̅́͂͛̄̆͌̈́̇͐̒̿̾͌͊͗̀͑̃̊̓̈̈́̊͒̒̏̿́͑̄̑͋̀̽̀̔̀̎̄͑̌̔́̉̐͛̓̐̅́̒̎̈͆̀̍̾̀͂̄̈́̈́̈́̑̏̈́̐̽̐́̏̂̐̔̓̉̈́͂̕̚̕͘͘̚͘̚̕̚̚̚͘̕̕̕͜͜͝͠͠͝͝͝͝͠͝͝͝͠͝͝͝͝͝͝ͅͅͅī̸̧̧̧̡̨̨̢̨̛̛̘͓̼̰̰̮̗̰͚̙̥̣͍̦̺͈̣̻͇̱͔̰͈͓͖͈̻̲̫̪̲͈̜̲̬̖̻̰̦̰͙̤̘̝̦̟͈̭̱̮̠͍̖̲͉̫͔͖͔͈̻̖̝͎̖͕͔̣͈̤̗̱̀̅̃̈́͌̿̏͋̊̇̂̀̀̒̉̄̈́͋͌̽́̈́̓̑̈̀̍͗͜͜͠͠ͅp̴̢̢̧̨̡̡̨̢̨̢̢̢̨̡̛̛͕̩͕̟̫̝͈̖̟̣̲̖̭̙͇̟̗͖͎̹͇̘̰̗̝̹̤̺͉͎̙̝̟͙͚̦͚͖̜̫̰͖̼̤̥̤̹̖͉͚̺̥̮̮̫͖͍̼̰̭̤̲͔̩̯̣͖̻͇̞̳̬͉̣̖̥̣͓̤͔̪̙͎̰̬͚̣̭̞̬͎̼͉͓̮͙͕̗̦̞̥̮̘̻͎̭̼͚͎͈͇̥̗͖̫̮̤̦͙̭͎̝͖̣̰̱̩͎̩͎̘͇̟̠̱̬͈̗͍̦̘̱̰̤̱̘̫̫̮̥͕͉̥̜̯͖̖͍̮̼̲͓̤̮͈̤͓̭̝̟̲̲̳̟̠͉̙̻͕͙̞͔̖͈̱̞͓͔̬̮͎̙̭͎̩̟̖͚̆͐̅͆̿͐̄̓̀̇̂̊̃̂̄̊̀͐̍̌̅͌̆͊̆̓́̄́̃̆͗͊́̓̀͑͐̐̇͐̍́̓̈́̓̑̈̈́̽͂́̑͒͐͋̊͊̇̇̆̑̃̈́̎͛̎̓͊͛̐̾́̀͌̐̈́͛̃̂̈̿̽̇̋̍͒̍͗̈͘̚̚͘̚͘͘͜͜͜͜͜͜͠͠͝͝ͅͅͅ☻♥■∞{╚mYÄÜXτ╕○\╚Θº£¥ΘBM@Q05♠{{↨↨▬§¶‼↕◄►☼1♦  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2 hours ago, wanderingfool2 said:

I don't think it was a brand new Model 3, as the issues you described scream as phantom braking caused by radar incorrectly detecting things.  The Telsa Vision update though apparently eliminated the phantom braking issues...well there is still slowing on crests, but that's due to limited visibility.

It was my friend's car...she took delivery of it 4 weeks ago so it has about 1000 miles on it today.   I wish the display would indicate why it decided to stomp the brakes or a way to provide feedback for it like "this was wrong" but it doesn't.  Eventually we just sort of gave up trying autopilot on city-ish streets because of how frequently it would do weird stuff.  I give them no chance of "autosteer on city streets" coming by the end of the year like they claim, but I think they were saying that last year too.

 

I'll still pay attention to whatever they release to be the Plaid Plus, because in my situation I really do need more than 250 miles of actual highway range which is what we got out of the M3 long range at 80mph with AC running.

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5 hours ago, Sauron said:

That aside, in most cases a purpose built robot is a lot more efficient than getting a robotic humanoid to operate a machine designed for humans.

 

Thinking of Tesla's own self-driving cars - it's not like there's a humanoid co-pilot ready to take over the wheel, is there?

 

I don't quite know what use case they have in mind for this but, at a first glance, this seems about as stupid an idea as the hyperloop. Designed for reddit likes rather than to be useful or innovative.

 

Given they're allready creating a big processing node for AI related stuff for other things i can actually see it working out. The two major hurdles to such a robot are the mechanical side, (which is largely a power supply issue, same as with electric cars, an area Elon's various companies allready have experiance with), and the software side. And having the facility thats going to handle that doing other stuff defrays a lot of the costs, and thats before we get into bespoke applications and/or cross use by Elon's other companies. Pretty much anyone operating in outer space would love a robot that could do most of the same basic tasks as a human, but without having to send a human out to do them. I'm sure there are more than a few other high risk jobs where companies would love to replace a human with a robot but nothing exists yet that can do it.

 

And once somthing like this gets it's foot in the door like that a lot of the costs are going to pay for themselves really quickly, and at that point more lower paying customers can come in and buy it at much closer to "hardware cost" levels.

 

It's a similar thing with advanced railways alternatives, (of which the hyperloop is just one), the cost of building out an all new infrastructure combined with R&D costs makes the whole thing really expensive, but once it's there it going to become a lot cheaper to work with. Personally the Hyperloop concept is a lot more interesting for cargo than passengers, air freight isn't reasonable for a lot of things, but a Hyperloop could be really fast whilst being a lot cheaper.

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6 hours ago, PocketNerd said:

All "AI" we have right now is just an expert system with a fancy algorithm.

Or maybe someone in South America who's paid abysmal rates to remotely provide "artificial intelligence" to the machine. Or, in the case of the Tesla Bot, a guy in spandex badly imitating a robot because Tesla has no intentions of ever actually shipping this thing, and needed a distraction from the fact that there's a federal investigation of Tesla looking into why Autopilot tends to crash into parked emergency vehicles that started a week ago.

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2 hours ago, Nowak said:

Or maybe someone in South America who's paid abysmal rates to remotely provide "artificial intelligence" to the machine. Or, in the case of the Tesla Bot, a guy in spandex badly imitating a robot because Tesla has no intentions of ever actually shipping this thing, and needed a distraction from the fact that there's a federal investigation of Tesla looking into why Autopilot tends to crash into parked emergency vehicles that started a week ago.

 

Or maybe your just full of it. Seriously neither of those links is seems to have anything of note to them. I'm not Elon's biggest fan, (great idea's, often good execution, but the man and some of the details that result from that aren't kosher IMO), but this reads like classic looking for somthing to hate and conspiracy theory crap.

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Just now, CarlBar said:

 

Or maybe your just full of it. Seriously neither of those links is seems to have anything of note to them. I'm not Elon's biggest fan, (great idea's, often good execution, but the man and some of the details that result from that aren't kosher IMO), but this reads like classic looking for somthing to hate and conspiracy theory crap.

Is this not obviously a man in spandex pretending to be a humanoid robot?

 

Remember that Boston Dynamics has been working on robots like this for years and have been basically leading robotics the entire time, and even they can't produce anything like what Elon and Tesla are promising to deliver in a year. If anyone's full of shit, it's Elon.

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2 minutes ago, Nowak said:

Is this not obviously a man in spandex pretending to be a humanoid robot?

 

Remember that Boston Dynamics has been working on robots like this for years and have been basically leading robotics the entire time, and even they can't produce anything like what Elon and Tesla are promising to deliver in a year. If anyone's full of shit, it's Elon.

 

Yes, and, that affects the announcement that they're working on the whole concept how exactly? Elon doing weird PR is just Elon being Elon. Pointing out things like it's a guy in spandex, or that an investigation has been opened isn't the knock down argument you think it is. In fact on their own their meaningless. The details are what matters, and right now neither of your links has anything in the details to support your claims in it. In fact the second one does an excellent job of undermining the negativity you seemed to be trying to cast by pointing out that this happen es or is a risk with all similar systems and that the Tesla Manual explicitly warns about this issue, (as does the manual of one of Tesla's rivals with a similar system).

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1 hour ago, CarlBar said:

Yes, and, that affects the announcement that they're working on the whole concept how exactly? Elon doing weird PR is just Elon being Elon. Pointing out things like it's a guy in spandex, or that an investigation has been opened isn't the knock down argument you think it is. In fact on their own their meaningless. The details are what matters, and right now neither of your links has anything in the details to support your claims in it. In fact the second one does an excellent job of undermining the negativity you seemed to be trying to cast by pointing out that this happen es or is a risk with all similar systems and that the Tesla Manual explicitly warns about this issue, (as does the manual of one of Tesla's rivals with a similar system).

It means they aren't, that the technology they're touting doesn't actually exist, and are simply trying to escape bad press about a federal investigation by "announcing" something they A. know they can't ship, especially not by 2022 and B. have no intention of ever shipping. Don't fall for it.

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9 hours ago, AnonymousGuy said:

I wish the display would indicate why it decided to stomp the brakes or a way to provide feedback for it like "this was wrong" but it doesn't.

With the new Beta version of FSD (not auto-pilot) the submitter actually have a button to send the video clips to Tesla.  Other than that, from my knowledge interventions actually do get relayed back to Tesla for them to study (It might be something you have to opt into though).

 

10 minutes ago, Nowak said:

It means they aren't, that the technology they're touting doesn't actually exist, and are simply trying to escape bad press about a federal investigation by "announcing" something they A. know they can't ship, especially not by 2022 and B. have no intention of ever shipping. Don't fall for it.

Rose coloured glasses.  AI day was meant for 2 purposes really.  Publicity (this was planned before the "investigation") and recruitment...as they sort of alluded to, they are trying to recruit talent especially in neural networks.

 

It's just like the Boston Dynamic videos, they are showcasing robots and concepts that took years to become a product (spot was making appearances for at least 5 years before launch).

 

4 hours ago, Nowak said:

needed a distraction from the fact that there's a federal investigation of Tesla looking into why Autopilot tends to crash into parked emergency vehicles that started a week ago.

Tesla's philosophy behind this, as of now, has been to effectively let the media say the things they do and not bother trying to correct them...because when correcting them, the media takes what they say and spins it.  Features like autopilot/FSD are there to help make drives easier, and for the most part they do (I know a few people with Tesla's and autopilot not FSD and they are happy with it).  It's not meant to be something that you set it and go to sleep (their goal is to get it to that point, but they openly say it's not no where near there yet).

 

For the "investigation", during that same period 6 other crashes took place with other vehicles using automatic driving (not Telsa).  Tesla's Autopilot tends to just be abused more though, because it's at the tipping point of being almost able to take you from home to work without intervention...so naturally it gets used more in ways that it's not suppose to.  btw, NHTSA is the same agency that didn't figure out that 90 million GM vehicles had an ignition issue (which was the cause of at least 126 deaths), and GM knew about the issue and didn't fix it (until a report took a look into it).

 

It shouldn't be punishing Tesla that users are attaching weights to the wheel, or driving drunk to bypass the system...it should be more regulated in terms of punishing those who intentionally bypass such systems.

 

Overall, if the NHTSA decides to act against Tesla, it will set self driving vehicles (of all types) back years [because they are looking into whether it should be allowed to be used in certain areas]

3735928559 - Beware of the dead beef

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11 hours ago, willies leg said:

What you are talking about is sensors and cameras, not AI. AI doesn't care about snow, signs, dirt roads, sun, rain, shit on a shingle.

Yes it does, since those are the inputs for the network, and tesla's hydra model has specific heads dedicated to the kind of stuff you said it doesn't care.

11 hours ago, willies leg said:

If the AI's been trained to understand where it's safe to drive, it will, and in fact, does, drive there. Snow and target practice road signs are irrelevant to the model, just like elephants and shooting stars.

Yes, sure, and whenever it sees a new scenario that it hasn't been trained on it may misbehave because you had an overfitted model that only knew what to do on perfect scenarios, since gathering data for the "bad" ones isn't as easy.

 

11 hours ago, willies leg said:

Furthermore, Tesla's AI is superior in that it understands context and objects have a lifespan. So, if a sign says stop ahead, it'll remember that for a period of time.

Wow, truly amazing, we've had that since... 1982? Not sure if hopefield networks count, but we still had LSTMs in 1997.

 

11 hours ago, willies leg said:

I use AI in non-vision, non-image processing systems. For me the AI stream is just data, % confidence, and output.

The way you interleave the usage of the words "machine learning" and "AI" really bothers me. From what you say, I can just assume you're doing a rule-based system (basically if-elses) that doesn't learn at all until you add new rules manually, since symbolic AI is still an AI.

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7 hours ago, CarlBar said:

And once somthing like this gets it's foot in the door like that a lot of the costs are going to pay for themselves really quickly, and at that point more lower paying customers can come in and buy it at much closer to "hardware cost" levels.

That never happened with their cars (Tesla was and probably still is profitable only thanks to government subsidies), I doubt it will happen with their robots. This is some ultra niche novelty item for people who don't know what to do with their money.

7 hours ago, CarlBar said:

The two major hurdles to such a robot are the mechanical side, (which is largely a power supply issue, same as with electric cars, an area Elon's various companies allready have experiance with), and the software side.

So basically... the entire damn thing is a hurdle. They're not going to be able to make this work with off the shelf hardware. It's not just a supply issue (and if it were, it's not something "experience" can help you with). The software is also not trivial in the slightest, it's going to be a huge pain to make this safe to use and usable without an engineering degree.

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7 hours ago, Sauron said:

That never happened with their cars (Tesla was and probably still is profitable only thanks to government subsidies), I doubt it will happen with their robots. This is some ultra niche novelty item for people who don't know what to do with their money.

That's an unfair, and false statement.  First, Tesla has exhausted most of their regulatory credits and since Q1 2021 has made quite a bit more even if you remove the credits ($18 million, removing credits and Q2 $939 million).  Second, Tesla has always been limited by production capacity and thus needed a bunch of capital expenditures to get them to this point.  Tesla in 2020 would have lost $426 million if credits were removed, but that's also a red herring because that assumes Tesla would have lowered the price to attract customers (if they still sold the same amount of vehicles in 2020 without credits they still would have made the money...it's just it would be coming from customers instead of getting the credits)...ignoring that red herring though, $1,491 million was spent on R&D in 2020...as they sell more vehicles R&D will increase but not at the same rate.

 

Ultimately it's an unfair statement to state profitability when a company is literally building out at a rapid pace.

 

8 hours ago, Sauron said:

So basically... the entire damn thing is a hurdle. They're not going to be able to make this work with off the shelf hardware. It's not just a supply issue (and if it were, it's not something "experience" can help you with). The software is also not trivial in the slightest, it's going to be a huge pain to make this safe to use and usable without an engineering degree.

At the moment it's a publicity thing, and a way to attract engineers/AI developers.  I think in the Q&A they essentially said the final product might look completely different...either way it's a way to drum up attention, and it's working.  It's better spending a half billion in R&D on a product that might you might be able to sell or at least expand your portfolio than it is to spend half a billion on advertising (if the result is the same amount of publicity)

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10 hours ago, Sauron said:

So basically... the entire damn thing is a hurdle. They're not going to be able to make this work with off the shelf hardware. It's not just a supply issue (and if it were, it's not something "experience" can help you with). The software is also not trivial in the slightest, it's going to be a huge pain to make this safe to use and usable without an engineering degree.

 

Not exactly, i simplified some stuff assuming you'd have some knowledge of the challanges involved. Building a human form machine with human range of motion is easy, but supplying it with enough power has been a problem so the traditional issue was "how do we make this more energy efficient so it can run off the power sources we have" and that affected both hardware and software. Tesla's own advances in that area with Electric Vehicles have made that much less pressing and that makes the physical design significantly easier. It also has positive effects on the software side.

 

On the software side it's a similar story, trying to program movement and tasking ability into a humanoid robot by direct coding is an enormous problem as there's so many individual variables in so many different individual situations that you have to account for. And you need code for all of those combinations. Think of your average AAA Game, now imagine you had to code an entire steam library of those all with virtually zero bugs. Thats an insane amount of time and effort and you still probably won't get it right.

 

Machine learning isn't a panacea. But it significantly cuts down the work that has to be done by humans on their end, but it's only recently that producing huge computing nodes to do this has even become reasonable.

 

Yes it's still a complete PITA, but compared to how it used to be it's gotten many many orders of magnitude easier.

 

15 hours ago, Sauron said:

That never happened with their cars (Tesla was and probably still is profitable only thanks to government subsidies), I doubt it will happen with their robots. This is some ultra niche novelty item for people who don't know what to do with their money.

 

Remember Tesla cars have allways been sportscars, their point has been to be premium products. Tesla at this point probably has the know how and ability to build a really cheap but capable electric car, it just isn't in their business model to do it, (probably for production capacity related reasons, there's no good business reason not to do it). The whole point i made about defraying the cost isn't some pie in the sky thing, it's a fundamental business and logistics hard reality, and with something like this it's the power supply and the software thats expensive, (for the reasons above), so once they pay that off it's going to be production capacity thats the limitation. For that matter letting his businesses expand their production further and faster may even be a secondary reason for Elon to be doing this. If he can hand enough of the skilled labour work off to the bots he starts to cut into one of the big limiting factors a projects growth can have.

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8 hours ago, CarlBar said:

Building a human form machine with human range of motion is easy

It really, really isn't. Unless by "human range of motion" you mean something that can't even climb a set of stairs. There's a reason Boston Dynamics has been making headlines; getting a bipedal machine to walk well is really hard, let alone twist and bend in ways a human could or even just climb a ladder. There are specialized robots that can carry out any single one of these tasks but none that can do all of them.

8 hours ago, CarlBar said:

On the software side it's a similar story, trying to program movement and tasking ability into a humanoid robot by direct coding is an enormous problem as there's so many individual variables in so many different individual situations that you have to account for. And you need code for all of those combinations. Think of your average AAA Game, now imagine you had to code an entire steam library of those all with virtually zero bugs. Thats an insane amount of time and effort and you still probably won't get it right.

 

Machine learning isn't a panacea. But it significantly cuts down the work that has to be done by humans on their end, but it's only recently that producing huge computing nodes to do this has even become reasonable.

 

Yes it's still a complete PITA, but compared to how it used to be it's gotten many many orders of magnitude easier.

I am well aware of what writing software for something like this entails, which is exactly why I don't think this is feasible in the way it has been presented.

8 hours ago, CarlBar said:

Remember Tesla cars have allways been sportscars, their point has been to be premium products. Tesla at this point probably has the know how and ability to build a really cheap but capable electric car, it just isn't in their business model to do it

Their business model is to make unsustainable products that are only profitable through government subsidies. This would not change if they made lower end cars. They would only be "affordable" because someone other than the customer is paying some of the price. Their presence on the market has had no influence on the price of anything, it's just wishful thinking to believe that them making a humanoid robot will magically make it affordable in the near future.

9 hours ago, CarlBar said:

For that matter letting his businesses expand their production further and faster may even be a secondary reason for Elon to be doing this. If he can hand enough of the skilled labour work off to the bots he starts to cut into one of the big limiting factors a projects growth can have.

Again, specialized machinery is orders of magnitude more efficient than humanoid robots, even if they were perfect. Production lines are not somewhere this can be useful. And I assure you Tesla does not lack the funds or the ability to expand their production. If they don't do it it's because they don't think the market warrants it, which is no wonder considering they make luxury cars.

16 hours ago, wanderingfool2 said:

Tesla in 2020 would have lost $426 million if credits were removed, but that's also a red herring because that assumes Tesla would have lowered the price to attract customers (if they still sold the same amount of vehicles in 2020 without credits they still would have made the money...it's just it would be coming from customers instead of getting the credits)

...how can you assume they would have sold the same amount of cars if the customers had been asked to pay more?

16 hours ago, wanderingfool2 said:

...ignoring that red herring though, $1,491 million was spent on R&D in 2020...as they sell more vehicles R&D will increase but not at the same rate.

Maybe it will eventually be profitable on its own, maybe it even already happened, that doesn't change the fact that it only got where it is thanks to years and years of public funds. All that publicly funded research is sitting in their patent vault, giving nothing back to the people who paid for it.

16 hours ago, wanderingfool2 said:

I think in the Q&A they essentially said the final product might look completely different

Yeah, no kidding...

16 hours ago, wanderingfool2 said:

either way it's a way to drum up attention, and it's working.

As usual, Musk spouts inane bullshit on stage and people queue up to jerk him off and inflate stock price, see this thread for reference.

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2 hours ago, Sauron said:

It really, really isn't.

 

Sorry but this is just wrong. Doing it if you don't have to worry about power budget is completely trivial, we've had the relevant tech there for decades, it's all been about upto this point doing it in an energy efficient manner not the purely mechanical challanges. Every movement the human bod can do can be handled by a mix of linear and rotary stepper motors. But even with regenerative braking technologies it's really energy intensive. Thats where all the difficulties on the hardware side are and have been for absolutely ages. It's often required extensive work developing entire alternate technologies.

 

Boston Dynamics got attention because they managed to combined all the elements, software, hardware, and power delivery all together.

 

2 hours ago, Sauron said:

I am well aware of what writing software for something like this entails, which is exactly why I don't think this is feasible in the way it has been presented.

 

Thats not an argument though, fact is machine learning is excellent at exactly these kind of problems. Now weather they've got the skill to pull it off in terms of the human side of putting together training sets and setting up feedback systems is more than i can say. But Elon is a fairly successful businessman, i don't think it's wise to assume he can't until proven otherwise.

 

2 hours ago, Sauron said:

Again, specialized machinery is orders of magnitude more efficient than humanoid robots, even if they were perfect. Production lines are not somewhere this can be useful. And I assure you Tesla does not lack the funds or the ability to expand their production. If they don't do it it's because they don't think the market warrants it, which is no wonder considering they make luxury cars.

 

Specialised machinery is specialised though, thats the problem, it has to be setup and modified for every use case. in some scenarios thats good, but in a lot of others it's cheaper right now to get a human to do the job. A non-specialised humanoid robot offers something key that a specialised robot can't. Mass production efficiency on the robot costs.

 

2 hours ago, Sauron said:

Maybe it will eventually be profitable on its own, maybe it even already happened, that doesn't change the fact that it only got where it is thanks to years and years of public funds. All that publicly funded research is sitting in their patent vault, giving nothing back to the people who paid for it.

 

So your mad at them for doing what every business of any real size does or attempts to do both during startup and any significant expansion, namely raise as much funds as it can any way it legally can and use that to pay for what it's doing, paying that off, (if it's a loan), years or decades later. It's literally how all businesses above a certain scale operate.

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6 hours ago, Sauron said:

...how can you assume they would have sold the same amount of cars if the customers had been asked to pay more?

Given that they are selling more cars now, at a higher price (than before the credits) and they currently have a backlog for the vehicles for months...so it's clear the demand is still there even at the higher price.

 

6 hours ago, Sauron said:

Maybe it will eventually be profitable on its own, maybe it even already happened, that doesn't change the fact that it only got where it is thanks to years and years of public funds. All that publicly funded research is sitting in their patent vault, giving nothing back to the people who paid for it.

This...this is the reason why you end up getting people labeled as Tesla shills...because people have to respond to comments like this.  You say maybe it even already happened...I literally told you the Q1 and Q2 profits (excluding any regulatory credits).  It's not a maybe it is.

 

Even if those "public funds" kept Tesla alive, it's better to have that happen (as if it weren't for Tesla the EV market would likely be no where close to where it was today)...Tesla made EV cares "cool"....also their competitors could have gotten the same regulatory tax credits had they decided to try entering into the electric car business.  Also let's point out that GM and Chrysler were bailed for $84 billion "repayable" loan (over $14 billion was already written off).

 

The fact is the other car manufacturers got "subsidies" as well (in fact they got more than Tesla)...like Tesla had $0.5 billion in a form of a load and already paid it back with interest.  Ford used the same program, but took $5.9 billion and hasn't paid it back.

 

The fact is, many companies and Tesla competitors are also being enriched by the same program Tesla has been using.  The regulatory credits as well helped more of an average person to make Tesla closer to affordable...thus kick-starting the EV revolution.  So they did exactly what it was intended to do...also your patent vault is not really valid, since in 2014 Tesla essentially said they will not pursue lawsuits against people using their patents in good faith (it's a bit more complicated, but effectively Tesla patents are open game and there are some companies that are using Tesla patents to make vehicles).

 

7 hours ago, Sauron said:

As usual, Musk spouts inane bullshit on stage and people queue up to jerk him off and inflate stock price, see this thread for reference.

And as usual, detractors of Musk don't listen to what he is actually saying and says he is saying insane gibberish.  Sure, people are taking what he said out of context and sensationalizing technology that won't come to fruition but taking the opposite side of things doesn't make it right either.  The reality exists in between...the robot will not look like what it is (but on stage Musk essentially said that), but it's a good way to drum up media support and as a way to do job recruitment of the top people in the field.  This is also an experiment, which might be turned into a real product eventually.

 

It's like all the people who kept going on about how SpaceX wouldn't be profitable and that recyclable rockets will never work economically (well even ThunderF00t to this day says this), and yet SpaceX is doing it successfully.

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20 hours ago, wanderingfool2 said:

And as usual, detractors of Musk don't listen to what he is actually saying and says he is saying insane gibberish.  Sure, people are taking what he said out of context and sensationalizing technology that won't come to fruition but taking the opposite side of things doesn't make it right either.  The reality exists in between...the robot will not look like what it is (but on stage Musk essentially said that), but it's a good way to drum up media support and as a way to do job recruitment of the top people in the field.  This is also an experiment, which might be turned into a real product eventually.

Yeah, no, that's not what we're doing. We're calling out the BS of the worlds biggest vapourware salesman.

 

Lets go through the list of how many "futurist" claims he has made and how many have actually happened...

 

The Hyperloop by 2025 - ❌

Mars by 2025 - ❌

$100,000 ticket to Mars - ❌

FSD by 2019 - ❌

FSD by 2020 - ❌

Robotaxis giving 100% ROI by 2020 - ❌
Tesla Semi - ❌

Cold gas jet propelled flying cars - ❌

VTOL electric planes - ❌

SolarCity being the "future of solar energy" - ❌

The Loop - ❌ (Giving this an X because he promised 150mph automated FSD 12 seat vehicles and delivered non auto Tesla cars with human drivers)

Reusable rockets are more cost effective - ❌ (the basic math says otherwise)

Lowered the cost of per KG to LEO by a factor of 10 - ❌(Nasa are on record as saying Dragon & Crew Dragon cost them more than a Soyuz seat)

 

Heck, even the stuff his engineers are doing is stuff that was already done years ago. Tesla > Moon buggy. Starship > Russian N1. Landing rocket boosters > Nasa were doing it in the 70s.

 

I have a rule about Musk, if he promises something its nothing more than a CGI animation and if he ever says "I feel very confident ...." then its a straight up scam.

 

He is nothing more than a market manipulator who is very good at running pump & dumps and Ponzi schemes.

 

Also fun fact, he calls himself an engineer, technically he is breaching US federal law every time he does that. In the US engineers are REQUIRED to have passed certain exams before they can call themselves one, at Musks current education level he wouldn't even be allowed to take the entrance exam to sit the engineers course.

 

Edit - gonna address this separately since I think its important...

20 hours ago, wanderingfool2 said:

It's like all the people who kept going on about how SpaceX wouldn't be profitable and that recyclable rockets will never work economically (well even ThunderF00t to this day says this), and yet SpaceX is doing it successfully.

SpaceX is not profitable, Tesla is not profitable, nothing Musk has ever done has ended in profitability.

 

SpaceX's market valuation (and Tesla's for that matter) is based on a hyper inflated share price that is no where near representative of its actual value. Its all based on pure speculation that this genius visionary is going to change the world, sooner or later everyone will realise he is full of shit and the market WILL correct itself.

 

All he has to do is keep the BS running, keep speculation high and investment high and as far as the market is concerned, SpaceX are making money. The reality is all the money is coming from investors being sold a pipe dream that, in reality, is impossible. Its called a bubble and all bubbles burst eventually.

 

In his recent trail over the Tesla buying SolarCity fiasco he essentially admitted that all his companies are running on the same pot of money, it only takes one of them to falter and his entire empire will come crashing down around him.

 

Musks entire wealth is built on a foundation of lies, speculation and other peoples money.

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50 minutes ago, Master Disaster said:

-snip-

With all that said I I fully get where it's coming from I do have to thank Tesla the company for what they did for the EV market. Now this might sound stupid but Tesla actually set out to make cars that happened to have electric drive, this statement is extremely important to me. Every other effort before and after, and largely still today companies are designing EVs that just happen to look car like.

 

I have no desire to blow smoke out my ass and drive round in a EV smugmobile statement piece. South Park's episode on the Prius perfectly encapsulates my feelings on that.

 

EV sales outside of the group of people that want others to know, no people must know, that they are driving an EV/Hybrid sucks because the cars all got hit with the ugly stick on the way out of the factory then had a medical misadventure getting plastic surgery.

 

BMW 525i <- Petrol Fuel Injected

BMW 525d <- Diesel

BMW 525e < - Electric (no I don't care the second 2 numbers don't make any sense anymore for electric, you get the point)

 

F&*#! done, it's not hard. Anyone that really actually gives a crap what the car is can look at the letter on the model badge.

 

Edit:

P.S And I say this while owning a 2011 Nissan Leaf, one of the earliest utterly generic small car hatch that is you know, just a car. Still ugly though lol.

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