Stop Children What's That Sound... GPU shortages :P

[WhitetailAni]

4 minutes ago, papajo said:

you just try to attack me on a personal level

I what?

[papajo]

4 minutes ago, ragnarok0273 said:

I what?

You just used an irrelevant (to the subject) part of a post I made as a reply to an other user (which was about his question not about the topic) to claim that I dont know what I am talking about (on the topic).

 

This is an ad hominem attack based on a populist and irrelevant argument (look it up to see what it means) 

[WhitetailAni]

2 minutes ago, papajo said:

You just used an irrelevant (to the subject) part of a post I made as a reply to an other user (which was about his question not about the topic) to claim that I dont know what I am talking about (on the topic).

 

This is an ad hominem attack based on a populist and irrelevant argument (look it up to see what it means) 

I look logic and critical thinking classes in high school.
I know what an ad hominem argument is.
I also know what an ad baculum (to the stick) argument is, also an ad populum (to the masses) argument.
 

I feel like I'm arguing against a 5-year-old who won't listen to anything anyone says.

[papajo]

3 minutes ago, ragnarok0273 said:

I look logic and critical thinking classes in high school.
I know what an ad hominem argument is.
I also know what an ad baculum (to the stick) argument is, also an ad populum (to the masses) argument.
 

I feel like I'm arguing against a 5-year-old who won't listen to anything anyone says.

I feel that too. 

 

The only difference is that I presented arguments and you are just keeping on doing ad hominem attacks without anything else relevant to say 

[WhitetailAni]

1 minute ago, papajo said:

The only difference is that I presented arguments and you just are just keeping on doing ad hominem attacks without anything else relevant to say 

I have posted 5 times on this thread:
1. To ask you which graphics card you have (which you didn't answer directly)

2. To make a statement

3, 4, 5. To respond to your responses to me.

 

People are asking you questions that you aren't answering. Is it because you haven't or because you can't?

[The_russian]

@papajoI'm not sure if you saw my first post, but I'll re-ask the question incase you skipped over my post and didn't see it. How would AMD or Nvidia benefit from artificially lowering supply? I get how the retailers are benefiting from taking advantage of the lower supply, they can charge higher prices and make more profit (although I'm not too familiar with this part since I haven't been keeping a close eye on the last few hardware launches, are the major retailers increasing prices, or is it just scalpers on Ebay and sketchy unknown pop-up retailer sites?). AMD and Nvidia however as far as I know aren't making more money off of this, so why would they (AMD or Nvidia) not make as money as they could?

By the way this is not meant to be a "gotcha" question, I am legitimately interested in your opinion about this and if you did mention it in your original post and I simply missed it, could you please point it out?

[papajo]

5 minutes ago, ragnarok0273 said:

I have posted 5 times on this thread:
1. To ask you which graphics card you have (which you didn't answer directly)

2. To make a statement

3, 4, 5. To respond to your responses to me.

 

People are asking you questions that you aren't answering. Is it because you haven't or because you can't?

1) I already responded to you and I dont see how this is relevant it most likely was an attempt of you to derail the topic again. 

 

2) to make a statement about what? (btw I am not the president I do not need to make statements, a discussion is not about ultimatums but rather... discussion) but I have no issue in making that statement I just dont understand what exactly you are referring to. 

 

3) I dont even know what you mean by 3.... 

 

....

 

I dont see any people asking questions especially ones that need to be answered, I saw people saying to me that sand is in scarcity... paper airplanes are harder to manufacture than boeing 747's  asking me how I personally will bring AMD and nvidia to their knees and you asking me what video card I have..

 

All this questions I responded to and do not make any sense and are out of topic btw. 

[WhitetailAni]

Just now, papajo said:

1) I already responded to you and I dont see how this is relevant it most likely was an attempt of you to derail the topic again. 

No, you did not.

3 hours ago, papajo said:

I have a few systems with different GPUs mostly AMD but I made that shift a few years back because I hated Nvidias price gauging (my last "main" nvidia card was a GTX 285), before that I would prefer Nvidia mostly. But now AMD is showing signs of going to the dark side as well so I am lost  

You said that your last main Nvidia card was a GTX 285. You did not state exactly which card you were using as your main card at the moment.

1 minute ago, papajo said:

2) to make a statement about what? (btw I am not the president I do not need to make statements, a discussion is not about ultimatums but rather... discussion) but I have no issue in making that statement I just dont understand what exactly you are referring to. 

I simply stated my observations - that you did not seem to have a basic understanding that you are targeting about.

2 minutes ago, papajo said:

3) I dont even know what you mean by 3.... 

You said I had "kept on going with ad hominem arguments" which is incorrect in of itself. An "ad hominem" attack is when someone says "2+2=5, not 4 because you are stinky and you smell."  I stated that, to me, it seemed as if you did not fully understand the topic that you are arguing about.
I then said exactly how many times I had posted and what they were for to counter that.

[trag1c]

22 hours ago, dizmo said:

Not wanting to produce more than there is demand for isn't unprecedented. They made tons of GPUs in the past, they got stuck with them because the mining boom dropped off. That's simply bad business, especially on a product with incredibly thin margins. Not only do they have to sell them, they have a very short window in which to sell them, as other cards will be coming down the pipeline.

 

Funny, you claim they have very complicated algorithms that tell them what to make...and yet, here we are. You know what they couldn't predict? A pandemic. It's like you can't comprehend what's actually going on in the world.

 

GPU producers don't make every component. They depend on other factories as well. As such, there is multitudes of ways cards can be slow to produce, especially as every industry saw shutdowns and slows in transportation of goods. Take a cell phone as an example. There's parts from 43 different companies in a phone. That's 43 potential bottlenecks.

I would like to add this.

 

Overproducing a product and over ordering resources for a product is a kiss of death for a company. Every single electronics manufacturer will have an ERP system of some sort (AKA as the complicated algorithms) and if you blindly follow that system you will also sink your company because every time it will tell you to order more than what you need. This happens because like dizmo said you have a limited window to sell these products. Tech moves to fast to be solely reliant on an ERP and it is way to volatile to try to meet future demand. These companies will only ever produce enough units to meet the number that they know for absolute certain will sell.

 

Also Factory lead times for a lot of electrical components are typically tens of weeks. Even a reel of 5000 chip resistors could take upwards of 20-40 weeks to get in. It is not uncommon to be unable to manufacture a product simply because you can't get your hands on components. A single current sensing resistor that costs 1 cent could be the difference between you shipping your product out and your production lines shifting to something else or stalling. For most passive components supply usually isn't a problem because it's very easy to qualify other product lines from the same manufacturer or different manufactures for a design. But now you start talking integrated circuits and you're suddenly screwed because only that specific part will function in your design and to rub some salt in the wound you're also competing with them for manufacturing at the same fab that's making your own dies. 

 

Very few industries have the same manufacturing complexity as electronics for the simple fact that you're not making some plastic toy thats pumped out of an injection moulding machine. Its not hard for a device like a GPU to have a 100+ different components on the board with several hundred components being placed in total. There's not a lot of SMT assembly lines that can handle the number of unique components on a GPU nor are there many assembly lines that can handle the precision and repeatability needed for those massive dies. Most contract manufacturers will hate you for using 0201 (20 thou long 10 thou wide) passives let alone having a package that probably has pin pitch of 0.3mm or less with probably well over a 1000 pins. 0.1 of a degree of rotation off and your entire GPU die is soldered incorrectly. Go over 0.15mm of total imprecision in GPU die placement and that GPU is hitting the waste bin. Not including any other components that are incorrectly placed or components that simply did not survive the soldering process. 

 

There are some serious hurdles to overcome to meet demand in the electronics industry. Not including when the entire world has turned upside down and there is unprecedented demand for everything. 

 

[papajo]

25 minutes ago, The_russian said:

How would AMD or Nvidia benefit from artificially lowering supply?

That's a good question but I can't answer it. I can not answer it because I dont have any data at hand. 

 

But not being able to answer a question with proof that relates to a problem doesnt mean that the problem it self doesnt exist in the first place. 

 

I mean for example I can not answer to you why policemen in USA arrest/harass more African american people than white people I cant prove to you that they have that intent or why they have it if they do so. 

 

but surely there is a problem with african american people being treated badly and even die without any apparent reason in what otherwise would be a routine inspection, detention. 

 

Anyway I digress. 

 

Coming back to the topic the problem here is that supply is very scarce to the point where one cant find a card at a rational price in an entire continent (e.g EU where I am from  but I am sure same story goes for USA) or even cant find a certain card in general even if he/she is willing to pay that ridiculous inflated price.

 

That  even prices for older architectures and mid ranged cards included are skyrocketing as well. 

 

 

As to how AMD and Nvidia could benefit from it, I dont know maybe they are not the ones benefiting maybe the 3rd parties are (partners such as ASUS, MSI etc or retailers/importers) 

 

I can however theorize as to how they would benefit from that. 

 

Artificially limiting the supply raises up prices while lowering production costs (one source of profiteering right here), retailers may have "under the table" agreements with manufacturers (asus msi etc) and give them a "kick back" for each overpriced card they sell (like a rebate but for the manufacturer ) this may or may not include Nvidia and AMD themselves. 

 

+ they are profiteering from inflating prices from otherwise well supplied GPUs that get inflated prices (e.g RX 5700 XT, 1660 tis etc) despite them being near their end of life simply because there isnt something better to buy at least not at a ridiculous price tag... so selling old stuff that otherwise would not sell or sell at half the price now sells at double the price instead (it's like getting the money for two 5700 XTs by only selling one) 

[WhitetailAni]

Just now, papajo said:

As to how AMD and Nvidia could benefit from it, I dont know maybe they are not the ones benefiting maybe the 3rd parties are (partners such as ASUS, MSI etc or retailers/importers) 

 

I can however theorize as to how they would benefit from that. 

 

Artificialy limiting the supply raises up prices while lowering production costs (one source of profiteering right here), retailers may have "under the table" agreements with manufacturers (asus msi etc) and give them a "kick back" for each overpriced card they sell (like a rebate but for the manufacturer ) this may include Nvidia and AMD themselves. 

 

+ they are profiteering from inflating prices from otherwise well supplied GPUs that get inflated prices (e.g RX 5700 XT, 1660 tis etc) despite them being near their end of life simply because there isnt something better to buy at least not at a ridiculous price tag... so selling old stuff that otherwise would not sell or sell at half the price double the price instead (its likes getting the money for two 5700 xts by only selling one) 

AMD and Nvidia afaik don't produce Turing/RDNA 1 cards...

[papajo]

14 minutes ago, ragnarok0273 said:

AMD and Nvidia afaik don't produce Turing/RDNA 1 cards...

They dont produce any card's in general (even the reference models are made by 3rd parties ) they are designers they sell the chips (usually with the VRAM as a kit) to MSI ASUS etc, they get however profits for each unit sold. 

 

And that's exactly an other point by selling end of life GPUs (Turing RDNA 1) that otherwise would not sell (0 profit) or sell at half the MSRP they had @ launch (as it usually happened the previous years) at double the price they suddenly gets lots of extra income they otherwise would not have. 

 

But as I said maybe AMD and Nvidia are not the ones exploiting this situation (although it would seem farfetched to me because they are the ones controlling how many GPU chips will be produced by e.g TSMC so their hand so to say moves the lever of production so they have a say in that) 

[WhitetailAni]

1 minute ago, papajo said:

They dont produce any card's in general (even the reference models are made by 3rd parties ) they are designers they sell the chips (usually with the VRAM as a kit) to MSI ASUS etc, they get however profits for each unit sold. 

 

And that's exactly an other point by selling end of life GPUs (Turing RDNA 1) that otherwise would not sell (0 profit) or sell at half the MSRP they had @ launch (as it usually happened the previous years) at double the price they suddenly gets lots of extra income they otherwise would not have. 

 

But as I said maybe AMD and Nvidia are not the ones exploiting this situation (although it would seem farfetched to me because they are the ones controlling how many GPU chips will be produced by e.g TSMC so their hand so to say moves the lever of production so they have a say in that) 

Have they done this any other years?

[papajo]

1 minute ago, ragnarok0273 said:

Have they done this any other years?

Nope! that's exactly the point! That's the reason why all this seems very strange and suggest (at least to me) that there is something faul at play!.

 

For 30 years no such thing has happened before with the exception of the "bitcoin craze" which even that could be an experiment to see if they can pull such a scheme of. 

 

But even if it wasnt a scheme and legitimately happened the way we are lead to believe (that they could not simply produce more GPUs to mea the demand) it surely indicated to them (manufacturers retailers) how big of a profit they can make from current gen GPU sales and older gen GPU sales if they limit the supply of the new gen GPUs. 

[WhitetailAni]

1 minute ago, papajo said:

Nope! that's exactly the point! That's the reason why all this seems very strange and suggest (at least to me) that there is something faul at play!.

Don't you remember that we have a global pandemic on your hands?
Couldn't that be the reason that supply is down - because there is less producing happening and higher demand?

[papajo]

5 minutes ago, ragnarok0273 said:

Don't you remember that we have a global pandemic on your hands?
Couldn't that be the reason that supply is down - because there is less producing happening and higher demand?

humm do robots get corona? 

 

 

 

Do people that work in such facilities e.g TSMC that are dressed like this 

 

 

Have any risk of catching corona? (mind that the clear room procedure has them to sanitize themselves before entry bathe themselves with sterilized compounds with the suit when they come in and out) 

 

Then probably not. 

 

Also what about already existing stock? (5700 xt's etc) that was produced before the crisis? 

 

Last but not least why dont we see such shortages in other tech products (they may exist but not to the same degree were you cant find a single unit in an entire continent or with 100% price increase etc) 

[WhitetailAni]

1 minute ago, papajo said:

humm do robots get corona? 

Who supervises the robots?

1 minute ago, papajo said:

Do people that work in such facilities e.g TSMC that are dressed like this

-snip-

Have any risk of catching corona? (mind that the clear room procedure has them to sanitize themselves before entry bathe themselves with sterilized compounds with the suit when they come in and out) 

Yes. A very small risk, but you can't eliminate it entirely.

2 minutes ago, papajo said:

Also what about already existing stock? (5700 xt's etc) that was produced before the crisis? 

They got bought?

2 minutes ago, papajo said:

Last but not least why dont we see such shortages in other tech products (they may exist but not to the same degree were you cant find a single unit in an entire continent or with 100% price increase etc) 

There are a much wider selection of motherboards, RAM, power supplies, etc. With CPUs and GPUs, you get it from Intel or AMD for CPUs, and AMD or Nvidia for GPUs.
With motherboards, you can get them from Asus, MSI, ASRock, Gigabyte, or Biostar. RAM, G.Skill, Teamgroup, Corsair, OLOy, etc.

Power supplies, well, just go look at the PSU tier list:

 

[Middcore]

Also, PSU prices have skyrocketed in the last year so pretending nothing has changed there is ignorant. 

[papajo]

4 minutes ago, ragnarok0273 said:

Yes. A very small risk, but you can't eliminate it entirely.

9 minutes ago, papajo said:

Well yes you can because it is an airborne virus means if you cant spit or breath the breath of somebody else then you cant catch it. 

 

+ we dont have any info of corona related problems outbrakes in such facilities 

+ as mentioned before isnt that so strange that even if it is true why didnt that affect any other parts of the industry not even nearly at the same scale/level ? Did God want to punish only the GPU market? or the AMD 5000 series workers (because 3000 series is well supplied and intel doesnt have any shortages either) 

[WhitetailAni]

Just now, papajo said:

we dont have any info of corona related problems outbrakes in such facilities

Lack of knowledge does not mean it is not true.

1 minute ago, papajo said:

 (because 3000 series is well supplies and intel doesnt have any shortages either) 

Intel didn't just discontinue a line of products.

And Ryzen 3000 is in good supply - explain why the price of a Ryzen 5 3600 on Newegg was at least $250-300 USD for about 3 months then, and not even shipped from Newegg most of the time?
HMM???

[papajo]

3 minutes ago, ragnarok0273 said:

Lack of knowledge does not mean it is not true.

Intel didn't just discontinue a line of products.

And Ryzen 3000 is in good supply - explain why the price of a Ryzen 5 3600 on Newegg was at least $250-300 USD for about 3 months then, and not even shipped from Newegg most of the time?
HMM???

Are we making circles here?  exactly for the same reason RX 5700 Xts cost 500 to 700$ (or RTX 2080 800 to 900$) because the supply of new GEN stuff is artificially limited which raises the prices ! 

[WhitetailAni]

Just now, papajo said:

because the supply of new GEN stuff is artificially limited which raises the prices ! 

Old gen stuff is in short supply because it's not being produced anymore.

New gen stuff is in short supply most likely because there is a higher demand and lower supply due to COVID.
There is likely no shenanigans going on.

I think you're looking for something to blame other than something unavoidable.

[dizmo]

1 hour ago, papajo said:

humm do robots get corona? 

 

 

 

Do people that work in such facilities e.g TSMC that are dressed like this 

 

 

Have any risk of catching corona? (mind that the clear room procedure has them to sanitize themselves before entry bathe themselves with sterilized compounds with the suit when they come in and out) 

 

Then probably not. 

 

Also what about already existing stock? (5700 xt's etc) that was produced before the crisis? 

 

Last but not least why dont we see such shortages in other tech products (they may exist but not to the same degree were you cant find a single unit in an entire continent or with 100% price increase etc) 

Just going to conveniently bury your head in the sand about the fact that there are many, many other companies that help make a GPU in the supply chain, as well as transport drivers, port operators, etc? Wait, yes, you are, because you have no retort to the blatant facts.

[thrasher_565]

9 minutes ago, dizmo said:

Just going to conveniently bury your head in the sand about the fact that there are many, many other companies that help make a GPU in the supply chain, as well as transport drivers, port operators, etc? Wait, yes, you are, because you have no retort to the blatant facts.

not only that there's no flights and less shipping. most are scraping because the profit of shipping is too small. 

[artuc]

6 hours ago, papajo said:

As for your post/link it is talking about a special kind of sand used in concrete production and it still kinda hoaxy as a subject.

Actually it mentions high grade silica sand as well. You can bet if there is a scarcity of construction grade sand there is going to be shortages of high purity mineral sands.

 

It's not a hoax, it is widely reported on, there are many sources.

 

Mainly though I was just trying to highlight your complete ignorance in dismissing even the source material as something completely trivial. Just because it is abundant doesn't mean it is abundant in forms suitable and widely available and viable to use for silicon production.

 

Your ignorance extends through the entire process including the foundries and fab process.

 

The crucibles even need a high purity quartz..