Bitcoin CRASH: Cryptocurrency PLUMMETS 60 per cent in MONTH as market continues to tumble

[Kukielka]

2 minutes ago, Master Disaster said:

About as dumb as saying "I do it so everyone else should too" and that was the point.

I'm not saying you should do that, I'm saying that it's a smart way to pay for the hardware.

If you don't want to do it, so be it, but you should complain about prices then.

It's like saying "boohooo, the money-making machine costs more now? I guess I complain about the ppl that generate money with it."

[Kukielka]

3 minutes ago, asus killer said:

one thing is the cost of electricity and other is what you pay for it after taxes and assorted stupid taxations. Some are not variable but some are and that shit can sky rocket pretty fast. The gpu cooling is debatable, a gpu 24/7 at 100% load

but like i said "for any reason in the world"

The priceconversion from USD to EUR is when it comes to importing Hardware pretty much 1:1. Tell me about it. Even under worst circumstances, it is still profitable.

[asus killer]

Just now, Kukielka said:

The priceconversion from USD to EUR is when it comes to importing Hardware pretty much 1:1. Tell me about it. Even under worst circumstances, it is still profitable.

i'm not American nor do i get what you are saying. Just don't assume things about the all world by your country standards, whatever country it may be.

[Kukielka]

Just now, asus killer said:

i'm not American nor do i get what you are saying. Just don't assume things about the all world by your country standards, whatever country it may be.

??? When have I ever said you are amarican?!

[The Benjamins]

 

Hmmm its like I seen this before...

 

 

[Master Disaster]

3 minutes ago, Kukielka said:

I'm not saying you should do that, I'm saying that it's a smart way to pay for the hardware.

If you don't want to do it, so be it, but you should complain about prices then.

It's like saying "boohooo, the money-making machine costs more now? I guess I complain about the ppl that generate money with it."

Well first of all I'd like to say I'm shocked by that graph, I had no idea electricity in Germany was so damn expensive.

 

People have a right to complain that the product they want to buy costs 2x more than it should because a few greedy people are buying up all the stock and leaving nothing for anybody else.

 

[asus killer]

 Agustín Carstens, general manager of the BIS - known as the bank for central banks because it is where they hold accounts - condemned bitcoin as “a combination of a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster”.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/78bf5612-0b1a-11e8-839d-41ca06376bf2

[asus killer]

2 minutes ago, Kukielka said:

??? When have I ever said you are amarican?!

so why did you mentioned "USD"? 

 

never mind let's move on 

[Kukielka]

1 minute ago, Master Disaster said:

Well first of all I'd like to say I'm shocked by that graph, I had no idea electricity in Germany was so damn expensive.

 

People have a right to complain that the product they want to buy costs 2x more than it should because a few greedy people are buying up all the stock and leaving nothing for anybody else.

 

Yup, that's the way it is here in germany, but as I said, gotta deal with it.

Mining is one way, as example.

[Master Disaster]

So the BBC just updated their article, the price has fallen below $6,000 now, $5,947.40 to be exact.

 

[Kukielka]

2 minutes ago, asus killer said:

so why did you mentioned "USD"? 

 

never mind let's move on 

You completely missed the point.

You said taxations and stuff can skyrocket, I named the import taxes as example.

Since MSRP for hardware is pretty much always USD, you HAVE to convert it to EUR.

[Kukielka]

1 minute ago, Master Disaster said:

So the BBC just updated their article, the price has fallen below $6,000 now

 

 

The news are really late on that one, lol.

https://www.gdax.com/trade/BTC-USD

BTC is actually recovering again.

[Sauron]

1 hour ago, i_build_nanosuits said:

what is the difference between mining bitcoin or mining alt coins and then converting them to bitcoin? Technically you are still mining for bitcoins and you are still doing it with GPU's...

It makes all the difference because the money you make doesn't come from the conversion. If you were mining, say, ethereum you could just convert it to USD and be just fine, or just keep it as eth given that it's steadily growing.

[lewdicrous]

The bank Gods have spoken

[Misanthrope]

Look here is an honest question: Whats bitcoin and all cryptos end-game strategy?

 

Because they must have known that as soon as they became profitable, bankers would complain and governments would ban cryptos and that'd be the end. They still don't have mass adoption by people and now that we have talks of banks refusing to even accept them or trade them at all well, I don't think you can sustain the crypto currency economy by just money laundering for Somali Pirates and Mexican Narcos.

[Master Disaster]

5 minutes ago, Misanthrope said:

Look here is an honest question: Whats bitcoin and all cryptos end-game strategy?

 

Because they must have known that as soon as they became profitable, bankers would complain and governments would ban cryptos and that'd be the end. They still don't have mass adoption by people and now that we have talks of banks refusing to even accept them or trade them at all well, I don't think you can sustain the crypto currency economy by just money laundering for Somali Pirates and Mexican Narcos.

Does it need an end game strategy?

 

Money is enough motive for most people, they're really not interested in the destination, it's more about how much money they can make along the journey.

[Jito463]

4 hours ago, SpaceGhostC2C said:

If I commit my life to study and meditation, will I at some point know what people mean by "the market correcting itself"? Or will the secret always remain obscure to the uninitiated?  

It's no secret, it just means that eventually the price will either stabilize or the stock will crash completely (depending on the underlying value of the product/service in question).  It's not based on a specific action, it's just an inevitability that people's buying habits will ultimately cease being random and haphazard and become stable.  It doesn't mean that it won't need correcting again, but merely that at some point it will correct whatever up (or down) it's mistakenly fallen into.

2 hours ago, Sauron said:

No... no... no... Bitcoin hasn't been mined with GPUs since 2014... please correct the post, I've seen too many people equate Bitcoin value with gpu shortages when there really is no connection.

BitCoin may not be mined in GPUs, but it still has an influence on alt-coins, which are.  CCs in general are to blame for much of the GPU shortages, some people just shorthand that to BitCoin since they're the most recognizable CC.

1 hour ago, Kukielka said:

I still have no Idea why ppl cry about high gpu prices...

Just **** mine cryptos yourself? Just because you are too lazy to inform yourself you don't do it? Give me a break.

How is not wanting to mine considered lazy?  What a ridiculous argument.  Why should we have to waste electricity using our machines to mine, just so we can afford to offset the hyper-inflated prices of modern graphics cards?  That argument is completely illogical.

[Kukielka]

2 minutes ago, Jito463 said:

How is not wanting to mine considered lazy?  What a ridiculous argument.  Why should we have to waste electricity using our machines to mine, just so we can afford to offset the hyper-inflated prices of modern graphics cards?  That argument is completely illogical.

Already discussed that a couple o' posts earlier.

[Jito463]

2 minutes ago, Kukielka said:

Already discussed that a couple o' posts earlier.

Yes, and I wasn't satisfied with your response, so I added my own two cents to the discussion.

[Unimportant]

2 hours ago, SpaceGhostC2C said:

Business cycles have existed since we have records,

And we've had government meddling for equally long. Even the Roman empire diluted the gold content of their coins to artificially expand their currency supply and pay for their big government with inflation. (The Austrian definition of inflation: expansion of the money supply).

 

2 hours ago, SpaceGhostC2C said:

In fact, we do have mild evidence (as it is suggestive, rather than conclusive) that active economic policy contributed to the tempered nature of cycles in the XXth century's "Golden Age" (post WW2 till the '90s). Active fiscal and monetary counter-cyclical policies coincided with a long cycle of growth and mild volatility,

I see no counter cyclical policies. We have low rates when times are good and even lower rates when times are bad. The fact one raises rates from 2 to 4% during a expansion, for example, means nothing if the true market rate would've been 5% at that time. You're still artificially too low.

 

This "Golden Age" you speak off started off with the US cheating the Bretton Woods semi gold standard by printing more dollars then they had gold to back it with in order pay for the Vietnam war and the war against poverty at home. The result was rising inflation which, despite rate hikes along the way, kept moving up - It took Volcker massively hiking rates in one fell swoop to kill off inflation. The lesson here is that once inflation is out of the bottle, it requires hiking rates fast and hard above the inflation level and get in front of the curve. If you study other cases of inflation that managed to be controlled before turning into hyperinflation you'll see this keep coming up.

 

That's relevant to me because it limits what can be done to choke off inflation this time around. Should inflation rise to 3 -4% with momentum, do you honestly think central banks will move their funds rate to 5 - 6 %, let alone 20% if need be like in the seventies?  I think you'll be surprised at how addicted economies all over the world have become to these low rates and the collapse that would follow.

 

Time will tell, but my point is, you can't claim success for a good flight before you've landed. If this multi-decade story ends well, then you-re right. But if we crash and burn on landing then it kinda ruins the whole flight. Except for the ppl who don't live long enough to see it. Perhaps that was Keynes's point when he said "In the end we're all dead?".

2 hours ago, SpaceGhostC2C said:

The idea that interest rates are getting systematically lower due to some debt accumulation is easy to refute by just looking at the time series of interest rates.

To talk about multi-decade trends one looks at the long term, not every little 0.25% wobble up and down.

http://www.archershomes.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Fed-Rates-since-1980.jpg

 

Yes, before that graph starts rates were moving up, ending in the Volcker spike mentioned above. But like I said - that was to kill off a inflation train that was getting out of hand and I do not believe that same reaction capacity is available today.

 

Important to note is that some countries can fund themselves today at multi-century (!!) low rates, despite having a worse fiscal situation. Heck, even Greece can borrow again at ridiculously low rates. Do you really think anything got actually fixed over there ? It is just the central bank putting a put beneath those bonds, if the central bank where to move away all those private investors would be gone in an instant. Don't mistake investors front-running a price insensitive buyer like a central bank for actual true investment demand. 

 

2 hours ago, SpaceGhostC2C said:

By the way, public debt also increases and decreases in different places at different times. So...

In what world !? Nominal debt *never* goes down. The debt only goes down as a percentage of GDP when GDP grows faster then the debt, but actually nominally paying something off ? Never!

 

And no, shrinking the debt as a percentage of GDP is not good enough. In a recession your GDP can plummet as we've seen last time, while the debt remains, making your percentage ratio spike. You might find creditors fleeing just as you want to borrow even more from them to do your countercyclical stimulus. Ah well, back to the central bank I guess ?

 

2 hours ago, SpaceGhostC2C said:

and under a liquidity trap the interest rates is stuck at the zero lower bound,

I hear this often, try having a few large central banks stop sucking up all the bonds for a few months, with the promise they won't instantly come back at the first sign of trouble, we'll see how stuck at the zero bound we are. I think you'll see double digits and the first one not being a 0. And as I said before, a lot of private demand is CB front running, these investors buy those because they're going to turn around and sell them to the CB at a higher price. No-one is buying a 10 year bond at these low rates to hang on to it. Once the CB's are out, everyone's out.

 

2 hours ago, SpaceGhostC2C said:

Analysts may deem the policy rate too low as much as they may deem it too high

But only a few of those annalists are actually at the knobs. If they lower rates they get all the praise of the boom, increasing stock markets, etc. If they increase them they risk getting blamed for a recession or stock market collapse. What level will they choose? Hmm...

 

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” ― Upton Sinclair

 

2 hours ago, SpaceGhostC2C said:

They haven't contributed much to Economics as a science due to their shortcomings

The responsible friend at the party that says you ought to stop drinking before you puke all over the place, the party pooper, is never popular. This is of course all highly personal. I can only say viewing the economic world trough the Austrian lens made things "click" for me decades ago, (Yes, I'm old) and did my portfolio good.

 

2 hours ago, SpaceGhostC2C said:

You see, there is no such thing as "lowering rates even further" when you are at the bottom, and we hit the bottom many times.

Ever heard of negative rates? Try looking it up, it has been all the rage lately.

 

2 hours ago, SpaceGhostC2C said:

Centuries, indeed. Business cycles are as old as economic measurement.

As are meddling governments.

 

2 hours ago, SpaceGhostC2C said:

Again, plainly not true

So, the fact this last cycle took doubling the US's debt from 10 to 20 trillion in just 10 years off "countercyclical policy" to only get one of the weakest recoveries ever (on mainstreet, wall street got all the freshly printed money cool-aid) does not tell you the gyrations are getting bigger ? A small stimulus used to go a long way, today they have to throw the kitchen sink at it and that still only buys a "meh".

 

2 hours ago, SpaceGhostC2C said:

It was a brutal recession (following, let me remind you, a period of de-regulation)

So you have a government running pro-home owner fiscal policies, government entities like Freddy and Fanny buying up mortgage backed securities from other banks indiscriminately, effectively taking all the risk away for them as they can now sell mortgages to anyone that can fog a mirror, take the premium, and then pass the risk on to F&F who themselves have a implicit government put, and when that leads to a housing bubble the blame goes to deregulation ?

 

"Moral hazard" is what you're looking for.

 

2 hours ago, SpaceGhostC2C said:

Yes, that's not exactly how it works. First, modern monetary policy is not conducted by printing money.

It boils down to it and you know it. How do they actually try to move interest rates to their target level ? The demand side is out of your control, so you can only affect the supply side. How do you lower a price (interest rate is just a price )when you can only affect supply ? You increase supply. The supply of money that is. You can wrap it in all the hocus pocus you want, in the end it simply comes down to "We will lend money at this rate, to keep the rate there, and if we run out of money we'll print more".

 

2 hours ago, SpaceGhostC2C said:

An inflation that is far from picking up, but when it does, central banks will likely do what they always did: increase the nominal policy rate

Already handled this above.

 

2 hours ago, SpaceGhostC2C said:

I'm all for underlying problems, but I'd like to hear any specifics.

Should be clear by now from the previous points.

 

2 hours ago, SpaceGhostC2C said:

but I also feel you don't mean 15 years ago. Because the Fed rate in February 2014 was 1.25%, while it currently is 1.5%.

No, I meant 15 - 20 years ago. 5 or 6% was not abnormal, even those levels would end badly today imho.

 

2 hours ago, SpaceGhostC2C said:

while the mass of people trying to stick to the scientific method when analyzing economics have found little empirical support at best, if not directly a lack of proper scientific formulation.

You mean all the talking heads that constantly said "no-one could've seen this coming" during the GFC, while some Austrian writers had published books in the years before not only predicting the crisis but even in detail explaining it before it happened ?

[AshleyAshes]

58 minutes ago, Misanthrope said:

Look here is an honest question: Whats bitcoin and all cryptos end-game strategy?

For the longest time the Neo-Libertarians said it would be a currency without government control that would be cheap and accessible.  ...That has not materialised at all.  You can't 'buy' things with Bitcoin almost anywhere.

 

Further more no one values Bitcoin like they would any other currency.  People only value bitcoin by how much of another currency it can buy, typically USD.  Obviously any currency can be compared to another currency but here in Canada I an look at $1000 CAD as 'Almost One Months Rent' or 'That'll cover that anime convention this year' or '3-4 months of groceries', useful, meaningful things and it's all off the top of my head.  No one can value Bitcoin for any utility unless they convert it for another currency first.

 

Even things like the 'BitPay Visa Debit Card' doesn't BUY things with Bitcoin.  You use BitCoin to buy USD and the card carries USD, not bitcoin, all purchases are done in USD, the only purchase made with bitcoin is the USD it's preloaded with.

 

Additionally, you'd be insane to accept Bitcoin as say, wages for labor.  Imagine if you got paid two weeks ago, in X amount of bit coin, and now your pay has significantly less buying power?  Not to mention an employer would be insane to offer to PAY someone in bitcoin, at least in terms of X BTC/Hour of labour.  Maybe 'X USD Worth If BTC/Hour Of Labour' but even would be far fetched.  It also goes back to my previous points of how Bitcoin isn't valued for anything other than the amount of another currency it can buy.

 

As an actual 'currency', Bitcoin is effectively stillborn.

[Misanthrope]

5 minutes ago, AshleyAshes said:

For the longest time the Neo-Libertarians said it would be a currency without government control that would be cheap and accessible.  ...That has not materialised at all.  You can't 'buy' things with Bitcoin almost anywhere.

 

Further more no one values Bitcoin like they would any other currency.  People only value bitcoin by how much of another currency it can buy, typically USD.  Obviously any currency can be compared to another currency but here in Canada I an look at $1000 CAD as 'Almost One Months Rent' or 'That'll cover that anime convention this year' or '3-4 months of groceries', useful, meaningful things and it's all off the top of my head.  No one can value Bitcoin for any utility unless they convert it for another currency first.

 

Even things like the 'BitPay Visa Debit Card' doesn't BUY things with Bitcoin.  You use BitCoin to buy USD and the card carries USD, not bitcoin, all purchases are done in USD, the only purchase made with bitcoin is the USD it's preloaded with.

 

Additionally, you'd be insane to accept Bitcoin as say, wages for labor.  Imagine if you got paid two weeks ago, in X amount of bit coin, and now your pay has significantly less buying power?  Not to mention an employer would be insane to offer to PAY someone in bitcoin, at least in terms of X BTC/Hour of labour.  Maybe 'X USD Worth If BTC/Hour Of Labour' but even would be far fetched.  It also goes back to my previous points of how Bitcoin isn't valued for anything other than the amount of another currency it can buy.

 

As an actual 'currency', Bitcoin is effectively stillborn.

1) You spend waaaay to much to attend anime conventions

2) Thanks for the info that's also the way I look at it: cryptos as some sort of anarcho-capitalist wet dream. And it's ending up like most of those: controlled by criminal enterprises.

[asus killer]

1 hour ago, Kukielka said:

You completely missed the point.

You said taxations and stuff can skyrocket, I named the import taxes as example.

Since MSRP for hardware is pretty much always USD, you HAVE to convert it to EUR.

i meant miscellaneous taxation on top of electricity price, i was not referring to gpu prices.

[Misanthrope]

57 minutes ago, Master Disaster said:

Does it need an end game strategy?

 

Money is enough motive for most people, they're really not interested in the destination, it's more about how much money they can make along the journey.

Well yes: You can use dollars, you can use Euros, etc. That's because local currencies are run on the back of a central bank who in turn runs credit on the government so most people can comfortably do commerce since they know they chance of the European Union disappearing overnight are nonexistent.

 

The chances of bitcoin disappearing overnight are actually pretty good so the chances of most business owners (outside of places like tech) actually taking it are pretty bad and the chances of people with nefarious interests like the aforementioned money launderers are also bound to tarnish it's reputation and keep it away from mass adoption without some solid backing.

 

So money and currency is what people agree should be currency. And 99.99% of people agree implicitly and often even explicitly than Governments (via central banks, but still) is the one institution they can trust for that to function.

[Master Disaster]

7 minutes ago, Misanthrope said:

Well yes: You can use dollars, you can use Euros, etc. That's because local currencies are run on the back of a central bank who in turn runs credit on the government so most people can comfortably do commerce since they know they chance of the European Union disappearing overnight are nonexistent.

 

The chances of bitcoin disappearing overnight are actually pretty good so the chances of most business owners (outside of places like tech) actually taking it are pretty bad and the chances of people with nefarious interests like the aforementioned money launderers are also bound to tarnish it's reputation and keep it away from mass adoption without some solid backing.

 

So money and currency is what people agree should be currency. And 99.99% of people agree implicitly and often even explicitly than Governments (via central banks, but still) is the one institution they can trust for that to function.

Oh I fully understand your point and I agree.

 

My point was do the people behind bitcoin really care where it ends up as long as they get rich along the way?

 

So I just did some googling and it seems like the alleged inventor of BTC, a Japanese person or persons (no one knows for sure) have roughly one million unspent BTC in their possession making them amongst the top 100 richest people on the planet.