Bitcoin CRASH: Cryptocurrency PLUMMETS 60 per cent in MONTH as market continues to tumble

[Sauron]

10 hours ago, i_build_nanosuits said:

Is it FINALLY the end of this craze? will we be able to buy GPU at MSRP or even bellow soon?

No... no... no... Bitcoin hasn't been mined with GPUs since 2014... please correct the post, I've seen too many people equate Bitcoin value with gpu shortages when there really is no connection.

[SpaceGhostC2C]

13 minutes ago, Unimportant said:

Or perhaps the ones who *really* understand economics

I have the feeling that by "*really* understand" you mean voodoonomics...

13 minutes ago, Unimportant said:

and know government meddling and government fiat money are the true source of the endless crises ?

*confirmed*  

So... which endless crises, exactly?

[dfsdfgfkjsefoiqzemnd]

4 hours ago, RyomaSJibenG said:

i just hope all those cards are in healthy conditions, who knows the moment we start using it broke....

That depends on the kind of miner you buy the cards from. 

If a miner has the cards crammed together and overclocked to the maximum, they will wear out quickly.  If he has them undervolted, runs the memory at a reasonable overclock and gives them enough room to draw in cold air, they will most likely be in better condition than cards that were actually used for gaming a couple of hours per day.

 

 

[Unimportant]

29 minutes ago, SpaceGhostC2C said:

I have the feeling that by "*really* understand" you mean voodoonomics...

*confirmed*  

So... which endless crises, exactly?

The endless-boom bust cycles we experience at a ever faster rate. They are a function of government meddling and it's not "just how markets behave". They are not stand-alone events but a manifestation of a much bigger underlying problem that will sooner or later hit a brick wall, only then will the true damage that's being done over many decades come to light, and it won't be pretty.

 

In order to "stimulate" the economy, and keep being able to service their ever bigger mountains of debt - amassed by buying votes by promising something for nothing to the electorate -, governments forcefully bring down interest rates trough their central banks (*).  The prevailing interest rate is not the correct market rate but whatever politicians want it to be, most often way too low.

 

This gives rise a artificial boom, it's all built on inflation (monetary expansion), not true savings and investing, as such it is unsustainable and will collapse - the bust.

The bust is not the problem, but the artificial boom that proceeded it. The bust is where all the mistakes that were made during the fake boom are corrected.

However, politicians do not like the bust part so their response is to lower interest rates even further and borrow and spend even more to "stimulate", giving rise to an even bigger artificial boom and so on...

 

This cycle has been going on for many decades and the gyrations become larger each cycle, at some point it will break permanently.

 

Imho, we're close to the last innings (**) - Interest rates have been at rock bottom for a decade during the latest cycle, they can't keep them low forever because at one point this will cause the currency to collapse (you cannot print forever without consequence). If they let rates rise the crisis will return because non of the underlying problems have been fixed and the debts have only ballooned larger, interest rates that were normal 15 years ago would bankrupt half the world today. (Incidentally, longer rates have been rising somewhat lately and now the stock markets are tanking hard, coincidence ? )

 

This is called "Austrian economics" :  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_School

You may believe something else and call this "Voodoonomics", but over many years I've found the Austrian theories to be the ones that most closely model the real world, so imo - they're closer to the truth then most other views out there.

 

(*) Artificially lowering rates requires printing money so it is only possible in a fiat money regime. Real, unprintable money imposes discipline.

(**) Relative off course, as the whole thing has been going on for many decades, "close" can still be years.

[i_build_nanosuits]

36 minutes ago, Sauron said:

No... no... no... Bitcoin hasn't been mined with GPUs since 2014... please correct the post, I've seen too many people equate Bitcoin value with gpu shortages when there really is no connection.

what is the difference between mining bitcoin or mining alt coins and then converting them to bitcoin? Technically you are still mining for bitcoins and you are still doing it with GPU's...

[Master Disaster]

4 minutes ago, i_build_nanosuits said:

what is the difference between mining bitcoin or mining alt coins and then converting them to bitcoin? Technically you are still mining for bitcoins and you are still doing it with GPU's...

Why on earth would you mine something with a low overhead then convert it into something with a huge overhead?

 

With BTC transaction fees the way they are you'd literally be throwing money in the trash.

[i_build_nanosuits]

1 minute ago, Master Disaster said:

Why on earth would you mine something with a low overhead then convert it into something with a huge overhead?

 

With BTC transaction fees the way they are you'd literally be throwing money in the trash.

what?

[Master Disaster]

5 minutes ago, i_build_nanosuits said:

what?

You spend money on hardware and electricity to mine $100 worth to alt coin then you convert it to BTC and instantly lose 20% of the value in transaction fees.

 

Suddenly your mining is no longer profitable because the conversion process is eating up all your profit.

 

If you're mining alt coins you keep them as alt coins, sit on them and hope the market for your coin sees a boom like the BTC market did.

 

[asus killer]

i hope criptocurrencies die of a painful fast dead. Need to upgrade the PC. 

[asus killer]

3 minutes ago, Master Disaster said:

You spend money on hardware and electricity to mine $100 worth to alt coin then you convert it to BTC and instantly lose 20% of the value in transaction fees.

 

Suddenly your mining is no longer profitable because the conversion process is eating up all your profit.

 

If you're mining alt coins you keep them as alt coins, sit on them and hope the market for your coin sees a boom like the BTC market did.

 

just buy stuff directly with the cripto, that's the all premise of this coins, if you want to convert to fiat there is no way in hell you wont ever be screwed on fees. Still with how much they were appreciating in value the fees were peanuts.

[Master Disaster]

1 minute ago, asus killer said:

just buy stuff directly with the cripto, that's the all premise of this coins, if you want to convert to fiat there is no way in hell you wont ever be screwed on fees. Still with how much they were appreciating in value the fees were peanuts.

I understand that, I'm responding to this

 

26 minutes ago, i_build_nanosuits said:

what is the difference between mining bitcoin or mining alt coins and then converting them to bitcoin? Technically you are still mining for bitcoins and you are still doing it with GPU's...

 

[asus killer]

4 minutes ago, Master Disaster said:

I understand that, I'm responding to this

 

 

my bad for not getting the context 

[Nup]

Second hand gpu’s here we come!! Hopfully. 

[apm]

i love how every coin is down at least 10%, likely between 15 and 20% in value.

[Kukielka]

I still have no Idea why ppl cry about high gpu prices...

Just fkin mine cryptos yourself? Just because you are too lazy to inform yourself you don't do it? Give me a break.

[SpaceGhostC2C]

1 minute ago, Unimportant said:

The endless-boom bust cycles we experience at a ever faster rate.

Don't know what you are talking about. Business cycles have existed since we have records, but there is no such thing as a constant trend of increasing the size of the swings nor the frequency of of shifts. You are just not describing the economic history of this world.

 

1 minute ago, Unimportant said:

They are a function of government meddling and it's not "just how markets behave".

You would need to prove this, as there is no evidence pointing in such direction. In fact, we do have mild evidence (as it is suggestive, rather than conclusive) that active economic policy contributed to the tempered nature of cycles in the XXth century's "Golden Age" (post WW2 till the '90s). Active fiscal and monetary counter-cyclical policies coincided with a long cycle of growth and mild volatility, compared to the large fluctuations of the laissez-faire era (pre Great Depression) and the revival of de-regulation (from early 2000s till the Great Recession). So yes, you would need a very convincing proof for such a novel, seemingly counterfactual sotry.

 

1 minute ago, Unimportant said:

They are not stand-alone events but a manifestation of a much bigger underlying problem that will sooner or later hit a brick wall, only then will the true damage that's being done over many decades come to light, and it won't be pretty.

That's Nostradamus stuff right there. Not really much to comment.

 

1 minute ago, Unimportant said:

 

In order to "stimulate" the economy, and keep being able to service their ever bigger mountains of debt - amassed by buying votes by promising something for nothing to the electorate -, governments forcefully bring down interest rates trough their central banks (*). 

Central banks lower and interest rates and also increase rates, and they do so according to the economy's need. The idea that interest rates are getting systematically lower due to some debt accumulation is easy to refute by just looking at the time series of interest rates. By the way, public debt also increases and decreases in different places at different times. So...

 

1 minute ago, Unimportant said:

The prevailing interest rate is not the correct market rate but whatever politicians want it to be, most often way too low.

The prevailing market rate is not the policy rate. The policy rate influences the market rate, but the sensitivity of market rates to policy rates varies with economic conditions. In a credit crunch the link is broken, and under a liquidity trap the interest rates is stuck at the zero lower bound, so there's not much role for conventional monetary policy at all.

At any rate, to the extent that monetary policy is effective (let's call it "normal times"), it's a great tool that accomplishes what it intends. Analysts may deem the policy rate too low as much as they may deem it too high, depending on their own view of the state of the economy.

 

1 minute ago, Unimportant said:

This gives rise a artificial boom, it's all built on inflation (monetary expansion), not true savings and investing, as such it is unsustainable and will collapse - the bust.The bust is not the problem, but the artificial boom that proceeded it. The bust is where all the mistakes that were made during the fake boom are corrected.

That is the old Austrian adagio. built on a narrative approach that never succeeded in providing any formalization or supporting evidence. It never got passed the stage of "we see these cycles. We conjecture this story to be behind it. Your move". While some of them are interesting reads (mostly Hayek - can't think of any other that isn't painfully un-scientific), they haven't contributed much to Economics as a science due to their shortcomings (and the strength of more well-rounded, evidence based explanations).

 

1 minute ago, Unimportant said:

 

However, politicians do not like the bust part so their response is to lower interest rates even further and borrow and spend even more to "stimulate", giving rise to an even bigger artificial boom and so on...

You see, there is no such thing as "lowering rates even further" when you are at the bottom, and we hit the bottom many times. And we also hit high interest rates (I suggest you google "Volcker disinflation", just one example of many). Again, your account talks about a constant negative trend that isn't there, and contradicts itself by assuming there is room to lower the interest rates (and have them have an effect) when they are already low...

 

1 minute ago, Unimportant said:

 

This cycle has been going on for many decades

Centuries, indeed. Business cycles are as old as economic measurement.

 

1 minute ago, Unimportant said:

and the gyrations become larger each cycle, at some point it will break permanently.

Again, plainly not true. I suggest you google "Great Moderation".

 

1 minute ago, Unimportant said:

 

Imho, we're close to the last innings (**) - Interest rates have been at rock bottom for a decade during the latest cycle,

It was a brutal recession (following, let me remind you, a period of de-regulation). Unsurprisingly, counter-cyclical policies were equally extreme. Now, I want to stress that you seem to be talking mostly about the nominal policy rate, not so much about the (relevant) real interest rate.

 

1 minute ago, Unimportant said:

they can't keep them low forever because at one point this will cause the currency to collapse (you cannot print forever without consequence).

Yes, that's not exactly how it works. First, modern monetary policy is not conducted by printing money. Second, the consequence of excess money supply is hyper-inflation. Which would be preceded by inflation. An inflation that is far from picking up, but when it does, central banks will likely do what they always did: increase the nominal policy rate, because that's actually how central banks conduct monetary policy, despite your fictional account. THey have inlfation targets and they adjust interest rates to meet those targets. So, it's not really that "they can't keep interest rates low forever because inflation", but more like "they don't want to keep interest rates low in the face of above-target inflation anyway".

 

1 minute ago, Unimportant said:

If they let rates rise the crisis will return because non of the underlying problems have been fixed and the debts have only ballooned larger,

I'm all for underlying problems, but I'd like to hear any specifics.

1 minute ago, Unimportant said:

interest that were normal 15 years ago would bankrupt half the world today.

I'm pretty sure is nominal interest rates you are talking about, but I also feel you don't mean 15 years ago. Because the Fed rate in February 2014 was 1.25%, while it currently is 1.5%.

 

1 minute ago, Unimportant said:

 

This is called "Austrian economics" :  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_School

See above.

1 minute ago, Unimportant said:

You may believe something else and call this "Voodoonomics", but over many years I've found the Austrian theories to be the ones that most closely model the real world, so ino - they're closer to the truth then most other views out there.

The problem is that "you have found this to be closer to the real world", while the mass of people trying to stick to the scientific method when analyzing economics have found little empirical support at best, if not directly a lack of proper scientific formulation.

 

1 minute ago, Unimportant said:

 

(*) Artificially lowering rates requires printing money

I have to stop you right there, because... well, see above.

 

[asus killer]

1 minute ago, Kukielka said:

I still have no Idea why ppl cry about high gpu prices...

Just fkin mine cryptos yourself? Just because you are too lazy to inform yourself you don't do it? Give me a break.

in some countries electricity is so expensive its not worth it. Others don't want to trash a GPU, or any other reason in the world.

[Kukielka]

1 minute ago, asus killer said:

in some countries electricity is so expensive its not worth it. Others don't want to trash a GPU, or any other reason in the world.

Funfact: I live in Germany, we have pretty much the highest electricity costs on earth and it's still fkin profitable.

Another thing: You don't trash your gpu with adequate cooling, the gpu is basicly doing the same calculations it does when running blender, cuda applications, OR LITERALLY ANY GAME,

Your arguments are invalid.

[Master Disaster]

4 minutes ago, Kukielka said:

I still have no Idea why ppl cry about high gpu prices...

Just fkin mine cryptos yourself? Just because you are too lazy to inform yourself you don't do it? Give me a break.

Perhaps people don't want to, it's not unreasonable to expect to be able to buy a component at close to it's recommended price and suggesting everyone should mine because GPU prices are high is on par with suggesting everyone should take up twitch streaming because Dr Disrespect pulled in 350,000 viewers on his return last night.

[Master Disaster]

Just now, Kukielka said:

Funfact: I live in Germany, we have pretty much the highest electricity costs on earth and it's still fkin profitable.

Another thing: You don't trash your gpu with adequate cooling, the gpu is basicly doing the same calculations it does when running blender, cuda applications, OR LITERALLY ANY GAME,

Your arguments are invalid.

Fun fact: not everyone wants to. You doing something doesn't mean everyone else in the world should also do it.

 

Also you think your electricity costs more than in places like Africa or South America? Lol no.

[Kukielka]

Just now, Master Disaster said:

Perhaps people don't want to, it's not unreasonable to expect to be able to buy a component at close to it's recommended price and suggesting everyone should mine because GPU prices are high is on par with suggesting everyone should take up twitch streaming because Dr Disrespect pulled in 350,000 viewers on his return last night.

ofcourse it's unreasonable to think that, but you have to play the hand that you've been dealt. Shedding tears about a lost cause won't change a single thing.

Also that comparison is just dumb, lol.

[Master Disaster]

Just now, Kukielka said:

ofcourse it's unreasonable to think that, but you have to play the hand that you've been dealt. Shedding tears about a lost cause won't change a single thing.

Also that comparison is just dumb, lol.

About as dumb as saying "I do it so everyone else should too" and that was the point.

[Kukielka]

9 minutes ago, Master Disaster said:

Also you think your electricity costs more than in places like Africa or South America? Lol no.

I'm sorry what was that? I can't hear you over my fking data.

Source: https://www.ovoenergy.com/guides/energy-guides/average-electricity-prices-kwh.html

 

EDIT: Oh and if you want something more recent, here is 2017. https://www.statista.com/statistics/263492/electricity-prices-in-selected-countries/

[Carclis]

3 hours ago, Master Disaster said:

It's not about fab space, it's about demand outstripping supply.

 

When only 3 fabs are producing RAM and every tech company on the planet is looking to buy the product it's impossible to keep up.

 

As for ram amounts increasing, I'd argue that has no impact at all. Fabs are producing larger units for DDR4, 2GB of DDR3 was 2 x 1GB while 4GB of DDR4 is 2 x 2GB so theres no increase in the amount of modules needed to bump the memory at all.

With those same 3 fabs we used to produce both DDR3 and DDR4. How does the change to solely producing DDR4 now with all fabs focused on producing it cause the shortages we're seeing? Doesn't the increasing cost of phones offset this by reducing demand anyways?

[asus killer]

7 minutes ago, Kukielka said:

Funfact: I live in Germany, we have pretty much the highest electricity costs on earth and it's still fkin profitable.

Another thing: You don't trash your gpu with adequate cooling, the gpu is basicly doing the same calculations it does when running blender, cuda applications, OR LITERALLY ANY GAME,

Your arguments are invalid.

one thing is the cost of electricity and other is what you pay for it after taxes and assorted stupid taxations. Some are not variable but some are and that shit can sky rocket pretty fast. The gpu cooling is debatable, a gpu 24/7 at 100% load

but like i said "for any reason in the world"