AMD's Vega won't make it this year, despite previous rumors

[zMeul]

directly from horse's mouth: https://app.scoutfin.com/document.html?id=57c01d11fcd1d0bb759fd048&_branch_match_id=297670879870932296

via: http://videocardz.com/63450/amd-vega-to-launch-in-1h-2017

 

the evidence:

 

I know a lot of people had hoped AMD will debut with their new Vega architecture before year's end ... sorry! not gonna happen

AMD's market share will suffer, and it's quite possible nVidia knew about it and pushed the new Titan X to the market to fill any possible void created

what's AMD going to do in the mean time? there's still about a quarter left of this year, will they release a dual RX480??! if we're to believe the rumors, they will

[Coaxialgamer]

Just going to put this out there :

 

Also,  AMD's market share won't suffer because of the halo-tier products that nobody buys like the titan x.  The 200-ish dollar range is still the core of the market. 

[DocSwag]

I wasn't buying the 2016 vega stuff anyways so I'm not disappointed  

[SpaceGhostC2C]

6 minutes ago, zMeul said:

AMD's market share will suffer, and it's quite possible nVidia knew about it and pushed the new Titan X to the market to fill any possible void created

what's AMD going to do in the mean time? there's still about a quarter left of this year, will they release a dual RX480??! if we're to believe the rumors, they will

Sell 460s, 470s and 480s? In the end, market shares are not made by flagship cards. What's the market size for Titans and the like?

AMD is already having troubles to meet the demand for RX cards, so focusing on translating that latent demand into actual sales should be enough of a task for the remainder of 2016.

[zMeul]

10 minutes ago, SpaceGhostC2C said:

Sell 460s, 470s and 480s? In the end, market shares are not made by flagship cards. What's the market size for Titans and the like?

AMD is already having troubles to meet the demand for RX cards, so focusing on translating that latent demand into actual sales should be enough of a task for the remainder of 2016.

in Germany, the biggest HW outlet sold 6 GTX10xx for each Radeon RX4xx

it seems that even if there is a request for RX series, AMD can't fulfill it - that coupled with the renewed craze of coin mining

[Curufinwe_wins]

4 minutes ago, Coaxialgamer said:

Just going to put this out there :

 

Also,  AMD's market share won't suffer because of the halo-tier products that nobody buys like the titan x.  The 200-ish dollar range is still the core of the market. 

You say that, but the 980ti was the best selling high end graphics card ever produced... The GM200 being the one to hit 1% market share in Steam Survey while still being the Flagship GPU (the 980 didn't hit 1% until after the 980ti launched, and still is barely more popular at 1.02%)

[SpaceGhostC2C]

1 minute ago, zMeul said:

in Germany, the biggest HW outlet sold 6 GTX for each Radeon

it seems that even if there is a request for RX series, AMD can't fulfill it - that coupled with the renewed craze of coin mining

GTX 10XX, I assume  I know what you mean, but that's why they need to get those cards built. Releasing new products people can't afford and they can't manufacture won't help them  

 

1 minute ago, Curufinwe_wins said:

You say that, but the 980ti was the best selling high end graphics card ever produced... The GM200 being the one to hit 1% market share in Steam Survey while still being the Flagship GPU (the 980 didn't hit 1% until after the 980ti launched, and still is barely more popular at 1.02%)

Being the best-selling high end amounts to have the biggest tiny number among all the tiny numbers...  

[zMeul]

2 minutes ago, SpaceGhostC2C said:

Being the best-selling high end amounts to have the biggest tiny number among all the tiny numbers...  

isn't it about the margins? nVidia makes a lot more cash from their higher tiered cards than from the likes of GTX970s (since it's the most popular card on STEAM)

they sell the Titan X at 1200$, and guess what .. people buy it

[Mr.Meerkat]

9 minutes ago, zMeul said:

AMD can't fulfill it - that coupled with the renewed craze of coin mining

Which in a way is a good cause that's shifting more Polaris GPUs than if it was just us PC builders/enthusiasts/gamers buying them

[Curufinwe_wins]

6 minutes ago, SpaceGhostC2C said:

GTX 10XX, I assume  I know what you mean, but that's why they need to get those cards built. Releasing new products people can't afford and they can't manufacture won't help them  

 

Being the best-selling high end amounts to have the biggest tiny number among all the tiny numbers...  

Lol... The highest market share on the steam survey is the 970 at 5%... Selling even 1/5th as many 980tis as 970s is an insanely huge achievement (esp since they were available for 7 months less)...

 

For comparison that is better than the ENTIRE AMD 200 series...

 

and almost better than the 380(x) and 390(x) combined...

 

[zMeul]

1 minute ago, Mr.Meerkat said:

Which in a way is a good cause that's shifting more Polaris GPUs than if it was just us PC builders/enthusiasts/gamers buying them

it's not good

it wasn't good last time either

 

the problem from this is that AMD will try and ramp up production to meed the demand

but, on the other hand, people will start buying from 2nd had and AMD will remain with the cards in stock

[SpaceGhostC2C]

2 minutes ago, zMeul said:

isn't it about the margins? nVidia makes a lot more cash from their higher tiered cards than from the likes of GTX970s (since it's the most popular card on STEAM)

they sell the Titan X at 1200$, and guess what .. people buy it

It's not about quantities not margins: it's about margins x quantities.

 

But that's for profits, though. Cash flows are also important for a firm, and higher selling products will make money flow faster than higher end products, even if they make higher profits every time they do get to sell the expensive one.

2 minutes ago, Curufinwe_wins said:

(...)

That's all very interesting, but I don't see how it makes it a good idea for AMD to launch a higher end product asap. Are you saying that if they release some kind of RX 490 they are going to outsell all their other cards, that they will have an easier time fulfilling demand, or that they'll make cash faster?

[Curufinwe_wins]

Just now, SpaceGhostC2C said:

It's not about quantities not margins: it's about margins x quantities.

 

But that's for profits, though. Cash flows are also important for a firm, and higher selling products will make money flow faster than higher end products, even if they make higher profits every time they do get to sell the expensive one.

That's all very interesting, but I don't see how it makes it a good idea for AMD to launch a higher end product asap. Are you saying that if they release some kind of RX 490 they are going to outsell all their other cards, that they will have an easier time fulfilling demand, or that they'll make cash faster?

No I don't. I don't think AMD could do that, the thing with the 980ti was it offered basically identical price to performance as the value king of the time the 970 did while ALSO being a flagship gpu... There is no realistic way for AMD to do that with the 490 against the 480.

 

I just wanted to give a counter example where a halo product really put the nail in the coffin of a generation.

[Mr.Meerkat]

12 minutes ago, zMeul said:

the problem from this is that AMD will try and ramp up production to meed the demand

but, on the other hand, people will start buying from 2nd had and AMD will remain with the cards in stock

But but some people will never buy second hand especially if they knew the cards were used for mining...

[Hunter259]

20 minutes ago, zMeul said:

it's not good

it wasn't good last time either

 

the problem from this is that AMD will try and ramp up production to meed the demand

but, on the other hand, people will start buying from 2nd had and AMD will remain with the cards in stock

Some people have some hatred of used products for some reason. You can get 980ti's for 330 which is by far the best price to performance card right now.

[Energycore]

34 minutes ago, Curufinwe_wins said:

No I don't. I don't think AMD could do that, the thing with the 980ti was it offered basically identical price to performance as the value king of the time the 970 did while ALSO being a flagship gpu... There is no realistic way for AMD to do that with the 490 against the 480.

Bold statements here. You're convinced that AMD couldn't possibly pull that off?

 

We don't even have info on die sizes for Vega

[Energycore]

I just find it amusing that we've had this loop so many times.

 

1) Someone creates a rumor that Vega will be early

2) 2 weeks later, it's debunked

3) Wait a month and repeat

 

Could we like, stop believing rumors about AMD's launches already?

[Curufinwe_wins]

23 minutes ago, Energycore said:

Bold statements here. You're convinced that AMD couldn't possibly pull that off?

 

We don't even have info on die sizes for Vega

I don't think Nvidia could pull it off either with Pascal... The 14nm process is just too expensive to scale up like that.

[Curufinwe_wins]

24 minutes ago, Energycore said:

Bold statements here. You're convinced that AMD couldn't possibly pull that off?

 

We don't even have info on die sizes for Vega

I don't think Nvidia could pull it off either with Pascal... The 14nm process is just too expensive to scale up like that.

 

Plus if AMD is doing it they have to massively transition to a high perf node, which they explicitly avoided with Polaris... So yea. It's not happening.

[Energycore]

3 minutes ago, Curufinwe_wins said:

I don't think Nvidia could pull it off either with Pascal... The 14nm process is just too expensive to scale up like that.

Unlikely, yes. While yields remain low, it'll be hard to create a high-end product at mass market volumes.

 

But AMD can try, they've done silly things in the past

 

4 minutes ago, Delicieuxz said:

Behold, the elusive and majestic quadruple post.

LTT is acting up i don't know why.

[Phoenix721]

Old news

[Curufinwe_wins]

3 minutes ago, Energycore said:

Unlikely, yes. While yields remain low, it'll be hard to create a high-end product at mass market volumes.

 

But AMD can try, they've done silly things in the past

 

LTT is acting up i don't know why.

They could make a better than 1080 value card (possibly), but it won't be the insanity that the 980ti was offering literally the same value of a 970 at double the performance.

[Energycore]

Just now, Curufinwe_wins said:

They could make a better than 1080 value card (possibly), but it won't be the insanity that the 980ti was offering literally the same value of a 970 at double the performance.

I suppose they came close with Fury X, but 390 was better than 970 and Fury X came up short of that.

 

As for a better than 1080 value card, hmm. I couldn't say until I get a look at die sizes

[Curufinwe_wins]

Just now, Energycore said:

I suppose they came close with Fury X, but 390 was better than 970 and Fury X came up short of that.

 

As for a better than 1080 value card, hmm. I couldn't say until I get a look at die sizes

But see that is the issue of the Fury X... It was 5-10% worse than aftermarket cards, and got obliterated by OC to OC comparisons at resolutions it could actually do (I do not appreciate 4k 30 fps and people need to stop doing that...)

 

Also don't get me wrong the 390 totally was great value... But it wasn't new per-say (and indeed, it was notably priced more than what 290(x) 8GB were going for at the time which was not a good incentive), and by that time the 970's status in the market was already long cemented. From about October on I never recommended a 970. 

 

Obviously this is ignoring the power stigma the hawaii gpu had/has (which also didn't help)...

[Energycore]

39 minutes ago, Curufinwe_wins said:

But see that is the issue of the Fury X... It was 5-10% worse than aftermarket cards, and got obliterated by OC to OC comparisons at resolutions it could actually do (I do not appreciate 4k 30 fps and people need to stop doing that...)

 

Also don't get me wrong the 390 totally was great value... But it wasn't new per-say (and indeed, it was notably priced more than what 290(x) 8GB were going for at the time which was not a good incentive), and by that time the 970's status in the market was already long cemented. From about October on I never recommended a 970. 

 

Obviously this is ignoring the power stigma the hawaii gpu had/has (which also didn't help)...

AMD took a great step up in efficiency and it was much needed.

 

Let's hope Vega is also very efficient. I wouldn't put it past them to not do it (they only put 32 ROPs on Polaris 10, silly boys) but the target is at the very least Maxwell efficiency.