Next Crypto Crash? Thoughts?

[FakeATF]

Let's be 100% honest here. Etherium won't last, that we can be certain of. The question, is when. EDIT: (Since many don't think that crypto is likely to crash, what do you think the chances are?) IMO the latest will probably be when it transfers to a POS system at the very latest. Lots of people are going to jump ship after they have made as much money as they can, as the new POS system takes feasible moneymaking out of the hands of the average miner. Thoughts? What do you think?

 

I was also curious as to what everyone else thought about how it will affect graphics card supply. How much do you think that the shortage has to do with miners purchasing cards, rather than scalpers and thechip shortage? If crypto were to crash right now and miners were to sell off their hardware like last time, what do you think would happen to prices? Nothing? Slight decrease? Major decrease? I do think that there would be a decrease, but likely used cards would be going at MSRP at best. That's just the situation that we're in.

 

Also also, what kinds of cards are Miners using? What do you think?

Edited April 6, 2021 by EjectedCasings

[boggy77]

1 minute ago, EjectedCasings said:

Etherium won't last, that we can be certain of.

how can we be certain of this?

[CommanderAlex]

2 minutes ago, boggy77 said:

how can we be certain of this?

Spoiler

 

[Levent]

4 minutes ago, SpiderMan said:

  Hide contents

 

Dang it beat me to it. However, mine says its before 2040.

[TetraSky]

It may crash when they switch to proof of stake. Just like how it may not crash. Nobody knows.

 

For now, only Bitcoin seems to have received "mainstream" adoption(as insane as that still sounds to me).

Unless Ethereum can do the same, it will likely stagnate for a while (technically Paypal does accept the usage of ETH to buy stuff as well*... I don't know what is going on here, just not as popular/well known as bitcoin I guess).

 

NFTs are going to be crashing though, at the very least. Now that people finally woke up and realized it was a total sham and entirely relied on third party services to keep the URLs up instead of being all stored in the blockchain. All they did was buy a "certificate" saying "I own this", with "this" being a link to a webpage somewhere that can be taken down by the webhost or original owner at any point (like in the case of people buying TWEETS of all thing). Plenty of people have had their links broken already and thus rendered their certificate completely useless. Good job buying something even more pointless than air in a can.

 

 

*only in the US. Not available in Canada.

[FakeATF]

25 minutes ago, boggy77 said:

how can we be certain of this?

Well, okay. It's not certain but it's likely, happy?

 

For those who don't know, Eth is moving to POS rather than POW, starting next year. This really fundamentally changes the way mining eth works, and I don't see a lot of people sticking with it. 

 

23 minutes ago, SpiderMan said:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

hurr durr ; )

[airborne spoon]

even when ETH changes to PoS everyone will just move to the next most profitable coin, in this case RVN will likely be that coin and guess what it still used GPU's 

Miners will continue to mine and I have already switched to RVN while the diff is still low because once more people move to it the diff will go up along with the price.

[boggy77]

22 minutes ago, EjectedCasings said:

Well, okay. It's not certain but it's likely, happy?

 

For those who don't know, Eth is moving to POS rather than POW, starting next year. This really fundamentally changes the way mining eth works, and I don't see a lot of people sticking with it. 

 

hurr durr ; )

it changes the way transactions work. it won't be mined anymore, so if you mean to imply miners will abandon it, that is correct. but moving away from POW to POS is supposed to make eth better and cheaper for transactions, hopefully increasing its transaction volume and value.

[FakeATF]

5 minutes ago, boggy77 said:

it changes the way transactions work. it won't be mined anymore, so if you mean to imply miners will abandon it, that is correct. but moving away from POW to POS is supposed to make eth better and cheaper for transactions, hopefully increasing its transaction volume and value.

Yes, that is what I meant. I was wondering what the effect of eth moving to PoS rather than POW was going to have on the GPU market and miners as a whole.

 

14 minutes ago, airborne spoon said:

even when ETH changes to PoS everyone will just move to the next most profitable coin, in this case RVN will likely be that coin and guess what it still used GPU's 

Miners will continue to mine and I have already switched to RVN while the diff is still low because once more people move to it the diff will go up along with the price.

You're probably right. People will still mine and move on to new things, but I was wondering if it would be like the last crash, where GPU's were dirt cheap because they were mined on on ebay.

[airborne spoon]

11 minutes ago, EjectedCasings said:

You're probably right. People will still mine and move on to new things, but I was wondering if it would be like the last crash, where GPU's were dirt cheap because they were mined on on ebay.

a few years back when the price dropped and there was a lot of people selling their GPU's there was no other profitable coins now there are a few but RVN is the highest so i wouldnt expect a similar thing to happen when ETH stops getting mined.

[tikker]

59 minutes ago, EjectedCasings said:

Also also, what kinds of cards are Miners using? What do you think?

Every single model that turns a profit, so... as many as they can get their hands on.

1 hour ago, EjectedCasings said:

Let's be 100% honest here. Etherium won't last, that we can be certain of. The question, is when. EDIT: (Since many don't think that crypto is likely to crash, what do you think the chances are?) IMO the latest will probably be when it transfers to a POS system at the very latest. Lots of people are going to jump ship after they have made as much money as they can, as the new POS system takes feasible moneymaking out of the hands of the average miner. Thoughts? What do you think?

Mining ethereum as we know it will be done for, but a coin doesn't get value just because you can mine it or because it is difficult to mine. There are PoS coins out there that do well. Ethereum itself? Nobody knows. Depends on how well it works afterwards I guess. It currently has trouble scaling well to support the amount of use it gets, which is why gas fees are so high making it profitable. I think the bolded part is only natural. There are potentially big profits to be made for relatively little effort, so why not jump in? That is not the main intention however, so it's only natural for that to die out.

 

 

 

[WkdPaul]

* thread moved to the Folding@home, Boinc, and Coin Mining section *

[warriorscot]

10 minutes ago, EjectedCasings said:

Well, okay. It's not certain but it's likely, happy?

 

For those who don't know, Eth is moving to POS rather than POW, starting next year. This really fundamentally changes the way mining eth works, and I don't see a lot of people sticking with it. 

 

hurr durr ; )

You are linking the shift to POS from POW as a rationale for a crash, however that is a hypothesis that doesn't really hold water, or at least you haven't made an argument for it. That shift is from a pure fundamentals basis makes it more valuable not less as that change along with other elements results in better performance at the core function of Eth, which isn't actually the same as BTC. The reason Ethereum is valuable really has nothing to do with the fact you can mine it, it started off that way as a draw to get people into the network, but they don't need it and have largely given up on it(they could ditch increase the ASICs resistance and keep it PoW for another 2 years if they wanted to no real determinant).

 

Will less miners hold eth, possibly, but not that many really do, once they reach a certain level many diversify out of Eth into BTC or other assets. I've got a good chunk of Eth building up, I think it's got good fundamentals, but mining wise if there is more profit elsewhere I won't mine it and probably won't go out of my way to get more that 1-2 Eth to hold as an asset. 

 

As to what people will move to, there are other cryptos with other use cases that are mineable, some of them where the move to PoS system would never really work i.e. those where the work done is core part of the system value such as when it is compensation for work itself. And it could be Ethereum does something stupid or another crypto just does what it does better, there are certainly competitors to it, but none I would say other than addressing gas are better on their fundamentals and none of those have the legacy and adoption level of Ether thanks to it being first to market and having legacy.

 

There are already some fairly close to Eth profitability Cortex isn't bad for example. 

 

There may be another crypto crash, what happens at the BTC halving will be the strongest indicator of that. However it's worth looking at the fundamentals as any investment and the market at the moment has things going for it that it never had before i.e. institutional adoptions of BTC and corporate adoption of Ether into infrastructure, and that's in addition to the whole DeFi space which is itself pretty new. 

 

I think unless we get massive growth in the next couple of months we at best might get a wobble, but for Ether and BTC in particular they are really only going to if anything level off at the moment. And long term BTC is now too much of an asset to go away so it's going to end up like any other asset and ebb and flow like any fixed supply asset. 

 

[tikker]

10 minutes ago, warriorscot said:

There may be another crypto crash, what happens at the BTC halving will be the strongest indicator of that.

Didn't we just have a BTC halving that basically sparked this bull run?

[warriorscot]

20 hours ago, tikker said:

Didn't we just have a BTC halving that basically sparked this bull run?

We did, long term behavior of bitcoin I think won't be settled until after the next one i.e. is the trend we are seeing now the same as the last halving or is it going to be indicative of a shift to late stage BTC behavior. The big question will be if we are in a bubble that will bust or a market that will settle.