Is the 3080 Shortage the WORST Mistake Nvidia Ever Made?

[TheLaggard]

Nvidia announced that they're expecting their RTX 3080/3090 shortage to last well into 2021, leaving their customer boiling at their seemingly cold response to the F5 mania, and the scalping debacle.

 

Nvidia had a practically unprecedented demand and market potential that has be stacking up since 3-5 years ago, with people holding on until that golden leap in performance finally worthy of their aged savings. And what was Nvidia's attitude? "Well, honey. Guess you gotta keep an eye out and wait. Teehee ;)"

 

In normal circumstances, that would've been fine. They practically have the monopoly on top performing graphics cards. People have no option but to patiently wait for papa Nvidia's gracefully bestowing them the honor of paying money to get their hands on those 30 series cards. Normally, that can be a good strategy. Normally, this is a top market psychology play; you're supposed to milk their attention for maximum loyalty, bravado and clout.

 

Where Nvidia could have possibly messed up big time? AMD's new graphic cards. Nobody expects the Radeon inquisition. Should the rumors and speculations prove to be true, this could be Team Red's biggest win in the decade. The card doesn't even need to be better than the 3080. Even if the card was slightly less powerful than the 3080 but with the same price point, they'll sweep the market. The hungry masses can't hold it any longer. Hype-man already is partially Team Red with the new Zen 3 architecture, so getting a full red-set is kinda....appealing. Once people get over the non-green tint of the card, it's practically over. 3-5 years of build up is now locked into AMD.

 

Team Green could easily have locked up the market and sank the Radeon Armada before it was christened. Once anyone had bought the 3080, there's no reason to even lend ear to the announcement. Even if Big Navi had %10 improvement over the 3080 with comparable price, you've already had bought a graphics card. Who would switch? Why would anyone switch? The door would have been closed for 1-2 years with Nvidia's name on the plaque.

 

But Nvidia's lack of initiative and risk-taking may have already mortally wounded their market share. The choice of controlled, but slow production line usually is a good idea. If they had produced too many, with too little demand, then it would have disastrous to have all that extra stock that can lose 50% of it's value within a year. So it's not that they were stupid, but luck favors the brave.

 

Now the ball is in Dr. Sue's field. She can drive the proverbial stake really, really deep if she had the foresight of this and went full throttle in production. The moves have already been made, and the course of action is practically been sealed. The next 30 days should be most exciting.

 

What do you think? What are you speculations, and are there any wild bets you'd like to make? Does what I said make sense, or are they the rambling of an armchair fool? I'd like to hear more from you.

[minibois]

It's an issue, but definitely not Nvidia's worst mistake, at least not from the perspective of Nvidia at least.

Nvidia's worst mistake probably still has to do with Apple and how Nvidia videocard equipped MacBooks from the past would run too hot and kill MacBooks (not sure if Nvidia or Apple was to blame though).

 

I am pretty sure that is what led to Apple now pairing with AMD/Radeon over Nvidia, which is a lot of missed revenue for Nvidia.

[PlayStation 2]

Too bad we all know that Big Navi won't live up to the hype and will probably be scalped just as hard, so Ampere scalping isn't the worst thing to happen to Nvidia.

[ausham]

5 minutes ago, minibois said:

It's an issue, but definitely not Nvidia's worst mistake, at least not from the perspective of Nvidia at least.

Nvidia's worst mistake probably still has to do with Apple and how Nvidia videocard equipped MacBooks from the past would run too hot and kill MacBooks (not sure if Nvidia or Apple was to blame though).

What bout how Jensen Huang said he had a bomb in his pocket on a air plane?

[Drama Lama]

It’s a problem yes

but not for Nvidia because their stuff is selling like sliced bread 

[Kilrah]

Mistake? No. I'm sure they're making all they GPUs they can, there just isn't any realistic way to satisfy the demand.

Nobody builds production capacity based on the demand of the initial month or 2 of a product with a 2 year lifecycle just like no one designs a rail network for everyone to be able to be seated at the peak hour of the worst day of the year.

[Entropy.]

16 minutes ago, minibois said:

It's an issue, but definitely not Nvidia's worst mistake, at least not from the perspective of Nvidia at least.

Nvidia's worst mistake probably still has to do with Apple and how Nvidia videocard equipped MacBooks from the past would run too hot and kill MacBooks (not sure if Nvidia or Apple was to blame though).

 

I am pretty sure that is what led to Apple now pairing with AMD/Radeon over Nvidia, which is a lot of missed revenue for Nvidia.

I mean, It is, but most people I've seen [maybe ~30-40 people without regarding schools] only have igpus in their macs- not radeon gpus, so imo gpus in macs from what I've seen, having a GPU in a mac is somewhat of a niche- and this shortage in gpus from Nvidia's side could have most 900, 1000, or prior users swich to team red as they'd have an in-stock option, which I beileve will have lower prices, and they'd also have their farily compelling CPU lineup to complement their GPUs. That could be tons of useres switching over to team red, damaging Nvidia in two ways, one, obviously by having their previous useres buy AMD gpus, and maybe CPUs, motherboards, ect. as well as drawing buisness away from Nvidia for the next few years- and possibly for longer, as amd seems to be on a roll right now, and looks like they will be in the future.

[TheLaggard]

7 minutes ago, handymanshandle said:

will probably be scalped just as hard, so Ampere scalping isn't the worst thing to happen to Nvidia.

You sure about that? AMD seems to be coming swinging at full-force.

[Entropy.]

11 minutes ago, Drama Lama said:

It’s a problem yes

but not for Nvidia because their stuff is selling like sliced bread 

They don't have enough stock to support how people are buying- Now When AMD comes up with a probably a 3080(S/Ti) and 3070(S/Ti) ect. equivlent, with a DLSS equivlent, ray tracing, a decent stock cooler, as better stock (probably lol) and compariable, or possibly better prices, who do you think will be selling GPUs like sliced bread? 

[Morrie Sells Wigs]

There's nothing you can do about the delay, and it's hardly life and death. 

 

Just relax, stop buying into the hype, and in a while, sooner than you think, you'll be able to order one and it'll be fine. 

[i_build_nanosuits]

It's always the same thing everytime the cards are hard to find for like 3 months...this time it'll be 4 because of covid.

[Entropy.]

10 minutes ago, handymanshandle said:

Too bad we all know that Big Navi won't live up to the hype and will probably be scalped just as hard, so Ampere scalping isn't the worst thing to happen to Nvidia.

Why is that so? The only hype that's been around, really are the leaks. You can't really consider the sneak peaks that AMD showed us as hype. Plus, says who? If I were them I'd be full steam-ahead with production, ans I'd pull out all the stops to get production up the maximum.

[Entropy.]

3 minutes ago, Maury Sells Wigs said:

There's nothing you can do about the delay, and it's hardly life and death. 

 

Just relax, stop buying into the hype, and in a while, sooner than you think, you'll be able to order one and it'll be fine. 

AMD hasn't really been hyping this up, they've learned from experience lol. We're creating the hype, not them. 

[TheLaggard]

8 minutes ago, Kilrah said:

Mistake? No. I'm sure they're making all they GPUs they can, there just isn't any realistic way to satisfy the demand.

There is a way to satisfy demand. Part of production and logistics is to predict the demand and preemptively ramp up production.

10 minutes ago, Kilrah said:

Nobody builds production capacity based on the demand of the initial month or 2 of a product with a 2 year lifecycle...

AMD seems to be doing it, but let's see how that turns out.

[Kilrah]

3 minutes ago, TheLaggard said:

AMD seems to be doing it, but let's see how that turns out.

No that's not what they do, they build up stock essentially delaying the launch, not extra capacity. Sitting on stock isn't necessarily a wise business decision either. 

Especially with the only thing that achieves is reducing the angriness of a few crybabies - must not represent a lot financially when you do the balance of one versus the other.

 

AMD for sure will say they won't have problems, must not be hard when they can from the get go expect much lower sales, and delaying launch isn't a big deal since they were not in position of winning the time race anyway.

 

 

[ewitte]

6 hours ago, minibois said:

It's an issue, but definitely not Nvidia's worst mistake, at least not from the perspective of Nvidia at least.

Nvidia's worst mistake probably still has to do with Apple and how Nvidia videocard equipped MacBooks from the past would run too hot and kill MacBooks (not sure if Nvidia or Apple was to blame though).

 

I am pretty sure that is what led to Apple now pairing with AMD/Radeon over Nvidia, which is a lot of missed revenue for Nvidia.

Apple rarely designs a product with adequate cooling especially laptops.  Nvidia probably underestimated how bad the design was.