Rumors about Zen2 being 13% better than Zen+? Watch out, Intel!

[shotsfired]

As you know, CES 2019 is almost here, and there's speculation that AMD will be discussing their Zen2 desktop chips. It wasn't expected originally until Q3 '19, but some say it'll be talked about at CES this year. Let's see if that's true! Since they're releasing their (what I hope Is Zen2, but is probably Zen+) 3xxx series laptop processors, maybe they'll wait til Q3 to let the Zen2 desktops out... 

 

However, after some research, I found a slightly ambiguous tweet from @BitsAndChipsEng here: https://hothardware.com/news/amd-zen-2-13-percent-ipc-lift-over-zen

 

He tweets that his contact says the newly developed 7nm processor from AMD has an average IPC increase of 13%, over Zen+. Given that AMD and Intel are still using a 14nm process in their newest chips, having a 7nm processor show 13% improvement of IPC isn't totally out of the question. (Please remember, IPC means instructions per CLOCK, which indicates that for every 100Mhz, it can crank X amount of instructions)

 

In celebration of AMD totally wrecking Intel's life (possibly), here is a spreadsheet I put together regarding the possible increase that AMD could be pushing through this new chip of theirs. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RYvgYVdfrOdZK4JkpZswVa6XjZX0G7QAwNSrQ7nJlh0/edit?usp=sharing (feel free to recommend updates/changes)

 

This coming from someone who just bought a i7-9800X, I am not sour at all. Just hopeful that AMD can actually do this. I'll gladly change from Team Blue to Team Red (on my CPU, of course) if AMD can actually deliver these rumors. 

 

Let's discuss! No fanboyism please, all posts containing harsh fanboyism will be reported and removed.  

[PlayStation 2]

let's see how true these claims hold

I'll be laughing my ass off if everyone's disappointed that all these rumors aren't true

[mxk]

technewssubforum?

[shotsfired]

1 minute ago, handymanshandle said:

let's see how true these claims hold

I'll be laughing my ass off if everyone's disappointed that all these rumors aren't true

As I've said, I'm currently Team Blue. But man, I will be shook AF if AMD can deliver something close to these tidbits. 

[Jurrunio]

Yeah sure, 5GHz Zen+ rumours fell right through, 12 core Zen+ on AM4 also went bust. I'm waiting for people to be disappointed.

[Lurick]

3 minutes ago, handymanshandle said:

let's see how true these claims hold

I'll be laughing my ass off if everyone's disappointed that all these rumors aren't true

But the leaks said 5GHz boost on the 16 core chip and they are clearly going to launch them at CES and that means I can buy it! The rumors have told me that so it must be real

 

Serious note:

People seem to be taking these leaks, which all seem to have come from a single source, and they've ignored everything and just sprinted away with it and holding it like it's gospel. The more this gets spread and hyped up the more people are going to lose their minds when it fails to live up to that. I think just about everyone should want good competition from AMD and the more they can push it the better but overhyping and overselling a rumor with nothing confirmed from AMD is just going to hurt AMD in the end. People will forget where they leaks came from and just trash AMD and tarnish their image so the sooner rumors can be replaced with reality, the better imo.

[nick name]

If they're doing 4 cores a chiplet with 4 chiplets being then separated by the IO die (2 chiplets on either side of the IO die) then perhaps it's possible that a 4 chiplet layout with 3 active cores could spread heat around enough to allow for 5GHz.  As far as IPC gains -- I have no idea.  

[xg32]

51 minutes ago, handymanshandle said:

.

my minimum expectation is matching a 9900k, if it doesn't even do that, ugh.

[PlayStation 2]

3 minutes ago, xg32 said:

my minimum expectation is matching a 9900k, if it doesn't even do that, ugh.

 

55 minutes ago, handymanshandle said:

I'll be laughing my ass off if everyone's disappointed that all these rumors aren't true

 

[nick name]

2 minutes ago, xg32 said:

my minimum expectation is matching a 9900k, if it doesn't even do that, ugh.

My expectations (if a single core boost of 5GHz is true) is an all core speed of 4.8GHz ~ 4.85GHz as an overclock.  

[shotsfired]

1 hour ago, Jurrunio said:

Yeah sure, 5GHz Zen+ rumours fell right through, 12 core Zen+ on AM4 also went bust. I'm waiting for people to be disappointed.

I don't remember any of those rumors. AMD themselves has stated they're moving to 7nm, so that's not rumor. As well as the SKUs that have released, those have been backended by 3 (maybe even more) retailers, so those are true too. The tech specs, who knows, but even an inefficient, non-perfect chip, being reduced 50% from a 14nm to a 7nm process is enough to give them a chance to show incredible results. You shouldn't be so closed-minded. 

48 minutes ago, nick name said:

If they're doing 4 cores a chiplet with 4 chiplets being then separated by the IO die (2 chiplets on either side of the IO die) then perhaps it's possible that a 4 chiplet layout with 3 active cores could spread heat around enough to allow for 5GHz.  As far as IPC gains -- I have no idea.  

I don't think heat is going to be a problem. The issue Ryzen had with overclocking was never heat, it was always voltage restrictions. Going to 7nm manufacturing will definitely improve voltage needs, and therefore, overclocking can gain an edge too. I'm hopeful. IPC gains were speculation from a contact inside of AMD, but that's somewhat of a rumor in itself. 

32 minutes ago, xg32 said:

my minimum expectation is matching a 9900k, if it doesn't even do that, ugh.

According to the spreadsheet I made (linked in the post), IF the Zen2 chip gets a 13% increase across the board, you can look forward to CB R15 scores of 2500, on the 8 core chips. That's 400 more than the 9900k on autoclocks. Promising. 

28 minutes ago, nick name said:

My expectations (if a single core boost of 5GHz is true) is an all core speed of 4.8GHz ~ 4.85GHz as an overclock.  

Even that would be a generous improvement over Zen+, but I think it can go farther. Considering the 7nm process change, this thinner die should be able to sustain much better clocks at a lower voltage. Voltage was always the issue with Zen 1. 

[Jurrunio]

3 minutes ago, shotsfired said:

AMD themselves has stated they're moving to 7nm, so that's not rumor... being reduced 50% from a 14nm to a 7n process is enough to give them a chance to show incredible results

14nm to 12nm sounds like an improvement, but in reality the power draw shot up a lot for a small frequency bump. I'd rather have the old Zen with Zen+'s memory controller and related micro code. If history taught me anything, is that 1st gen of everything has its flaws and never work as intended. Intel's first 22nm, Haswell, got wayyyy too hot when overclocked. Their first 14nm, Broadwell, overclocks like turd (Haswell refresh do better). A new process is a new start sure, but immature processes never beat mature old process by much.

5 minutes ago, shotsfired said:

As well as the SKUs that have released, those have been backended by 3 (maybe even more) retailers, so those are true too.

Nope, retailers only mention what rumours have said which have no solid proof. They are on NDA mind you and are not allowed to say anything not publically known. Or maybe they do that, and risk having AMD cut off their supplies.

[shotsfired]

2 minutes ago, Jurrunio said:

14nm to 12nm sounds like an improvement, but in reality the power draw shot up a lot for a small frequency bump. I'd rather have the old Zen with Zen+'s memory controller and related micro code. If history taught me anything, is that 1st gen of everything has its flaws and never work as intended. Intel's first 22nm, Haswell, got wayyyy too hot when overclocked. Their first 14nm, Broadwell, overclocks like turd (Haswell refresh do better). A new process is a new start sure, but immature processes never beat mature old process by much.

Nope, retailers only mention what rumours have said which have no solid proof. They are on NDA mind you and are not allowed to say anything not publically known. Or maybe they do that, and risk having AMD cut off their supplies.

Once again, I'm gonna stay hopeful. Not holding my breath, I have a brand new x299 build that I haven't even finished yet. But the possibilities for AMD are endless. 

 

Also, you think retailers post SKUs in their databases, based off internet rumors? These SKUs are found in a reverse dump of their catalogs, they don't base their SKUs off of rumor. 

[Jurrunio]

6 minutes ago, shotsfired said:

Also, you think retailers post SKUs in their databases, based off internet rumors? These SKUs are found in a reverse dump of their catalogs, they don't base their SKUs off of rumor. 

So you think they will just break NDA because they want to?

[shotsfired]

1 minute ago, Jurrunio said:

So you think they will just break NDA because they want to?

Putting it as an unlisted item in their SKU database is not a violation of NDA. Retailers have been doing it for decades. How do you think we always know before a product launches? 

[Jurrunio]

33 minutes ago, shotsfired said:

Putting it as an unlisted item in their SKU database is not a violation of NDA. Retailers have been doing it for decades. How do you think we always know before a product launches? 

because such data got leaked? The leak counts as violation of NDA, even if they arent the one directly saying it.

 

Oh and also, the leak from database could be fake from the start.

[Quadriplegic]

That 13% better IPC rumour is quite old at this point.


And who was expecting desktop Zen2 chips by Q3 2019?

[maartendc]

18 hours ago, Lurick said:

But the leaks said 5GHz boost on the 16 core chip and they are clearly going to launch them at CES and that means I can buy it! The rumors have told me that so it must be real

 

Serious note:

People seem to be taking these leaks, which all seem to have come from a single source, and they've ignored everything and just sprinted away with it and holding it like it's gospel.

I totally agree, people are setting themselves up for disappointment. Rumors are just that, rumors. (remember all the GTX 11 series rumors? Yeah.. )

 

Furthermore, Hardware Unboxed has said that their AMD contacts have said they will NOT launch Zen2 at CES. They will discuss it or give some kind of launch roadmap perhaps, but not a full product unveil / launch with SKU's, pricing, etc. Seeing that is the case, I highly doubt ANY of these rumors are true. I even doubt AMD knows at this point which exact price points and speeds they will set. It is just too early and they haven't started full manufacturing yet / don't know the yields etc.

 

AMD will first launch the server 7nm Epyc products before they launch Ryzen 3000 series. So we are a good bit away, fall 2019 at the earliest.

[shotsfired]

9 hours ago, maartendc said:

I totally agree, people are setting themselves up for disappointment. Rumors are just that, rumors. (remember all the GTX 11 series rumors? Yeah.. )

 

Furthermore, Hardware Unboxed has said that their AMD contacts have said they will NOT launch Zen2 at CES. They will discuss it or give some kind of launch roadmap perhaps, but not a full product unveil / launch with SKU's, pricing, etc. Seeing that is the case, I highly doubt ANY of these rumors are true. I even doubt AMD knows at this point which exact price points and speeds they will set. It is just too early and they haven't started full manufacturing yet / don't know the yields etc.

 

AMD will first launch the server 7nm Epyc products before they launch Ryzen 3000 series. So we are a good bit away, fall 2019 at the earliest.

No one is set up for disappointment. And that's funny, because they're the only ones to have said so.

 

I'll see this thread after the keynote on Wednesday. 

[maartendc]

10 hours ago, shotsfired said:

No one is set up for disappointment. And that's funny, because they're the only ones to have said so.

 

I'll see this thread after the keynote on Wednesday.  

? What do you mean, I don't get your point. You mean all the people gasping about how they'll be able to buy a new Ryzen 3000 desktop chip at 5Ghz next week won't be disappointed when that doesn't happen?

 

According to an Anandtech article from two days ago, they could unveil 3000 series mobile chips, but these are based on the 12nm process, so not the true 7nm zen2 chips yet.

 

https://www.anandtech.com/show/13771/amd-ces-2019-ryzen-mobile-3000-series-launched

[BobbyPdue]

I have zero expectations.  I'll look at official information and then start to form an opinion, but I won't completely form an opinion until benchmarks come out.

[Quadriplegic]

3 minutes ago, maartendc said:

-snip-

First of all, nobody with half of brain expects them to launch. AdoredTV's leaks stated that they might be announced, and announcement is not the same thing as launching. 

And let's see the some of the rumours in the last few months....

RTX 2060 (came to be true), GTX 11 series (most likely false), Titan RTX (true), RTX launch (true), 32 cores Threadripper (true).

AMD does not want to (nor can afford to) be Intel's bitch forever, they have to take the leap as fast as they can.

[maartendc]

1 minute ago, Quadriplegic said:

First of all, nobody with half of brain expects them to launch. AdoredTV's leaks stated that they might be announced, and announcement is not the same thing as launching. 

And let's see the some of the rumours in the last few months....

RTX 2060 (came to be true), GTX 11 series (most likely false), Titan RTX (true), RTX launch (true), 32 cores Threadripper (true).

AMD does not want to (nor can afford to) be Intel's bitch forever, they have to take the leap as fast as they can.

Again, they will probably announce and launch the mobile chips on 12nm, and give a roadmap for desktop chips on 7nm, not a full unveil of SKU's and prices. They will say something like: "Ryzen 3000 desktop on 7nm is on track and coming fall 2019, will be 50% better in blablabla and show some meaningless graph". If you call that an "announcement", then sure. It is saying nothing that we don't already know. 

 

Mark my words and feel free to point and laugh at me if I turn out to be wrong. But I doubt it.

 

Also, I would hardly call AMD Intel's bitch right now. AMD is dominating the mid-range desktop space at the moment in terms of price/performance. And they are dominating the HEDT space with Threadripper. Intel only has a slight advantage still in some use cases, and AMD Ryzen 2000 series is selling really really well. They will likely want to make the most out of the 2000 series (which launched April 2018, LESS than a year ago!), before moving on to 3000 series. I don't know where you get the notion that they need to be in a rush right now. Launching in fall 2019 would be perfectly fine.

 

[Quadriplegic]

Just now, maartendc said:

Also, I would hardly call AMD Intel's bitch right now. AMD is dominating the mid-range desktop space at the moment in terms of price/performance. And they are dominating the HEDT space with Threadripper. Intel only has a slight advantage still in some use cases, and AMD Ryzen 2000 series is selling really really well. They will likely want to make the most out of the 2000 series (which launched April 2018, LESS than a year ago!), before moving on to 3000 series. I don't know where you get the notion that they need to be in a rush right now. Launching in fall 2019 would be perfectly fine.

 

Let's be honest, the main reason why Ryzen chips have been selling well lately is the shortage/price increase of Intel chips. For performance enthusiasts, Intel is the only choice. AMD really has to make Zen 2 chips perform better if they want to tackle that end of the market. Not to mention that it gives a people with Zen/Zen + systems a reason to upgrade. Just another refresh that gives 100-200 Mhz clock speed won't cut it. And keep in mind that next year (as far as we know at the moment) is dead end for AM4.

Regarding the keynote itself, I don't expect full announcement, but I do expect some rough benchmarks, not just graphs that are skewed to showed biased results.

Both Ryzen series have been launched in first half of the year. Why delay it and lose the precious market share?

[shotsfired]

Radeon VII has been announced. AMD benchmarks state that it MATCHES or BEATS a 2080.