Is a $250 "3080" even possible?

[nick name]

27 minutes ago, OnyxArmos said:

I'll always stick with Nvidia, no matter what AMD comes out with

This guy is also a reason why AMD might price so aggressively.  

[nick name]

28 minutes ago, OnyxArmos said:

I'll always stick with Nvidia, no matter what AMD comes out with

This guy is also a reason why AMD might price so aggressively.  

[Fasauceome]

Just now, nick name said:

This guy is also a reason why AMD might price so aggressively.  

The rare lag triple post, thank you LTT servers

[nick name]

1 minute ago, fasauceome said:

The rare lag triple post, thank you LTT servers

That's never happened to me before.  

[Mira Yurizaki]

Even if AMD manages to get Navi on 7nm, they can't do it for cheap. Sure they announced CPUs on 7nm, but they're for the enterprise market who are willing to spend metric tons of money. 7nm is looking like an expensive process to design for, considering both Qualcomm and MediaTek have delayed their offerings. Heck, GlobalFoundries announced it was putting its 7nm plans on hold indefinitely likely for similar reasons.

 

Also the problem with doing chiplets for GPUs is that the make up of GPUs makes it hard for such a design to work effectively without doing basically Crossfire on a chip/card. And really all the chiplet design is doing is going back to the ol' Northbridge/Southbridge design, but putting Northbridge on the processor package itself. It's just now we have the technology to use high-speed interconnects off-die. Current GPU design is still a monolithic block of control units + execution units. At best you could do is separate the memory controller, but the problem with that is either you have to evenly divide the bandwidth per chiplet (which is a big no-no for GPUs) or add even more memory modules or find a way to increase the bandwidth appropriately.

[DVA]

10 minutes ago, 17030644 said:

possible, but not likely

 

it just doesn't make any sense, AMD wants to compete with nvidia, not to give away money for no reason. They don't have to lower the price at all

Untrue, often in a market you will see someone with a lower share do this. They do it in order to gain more "loyal" customers. Loyal customers make companies more money than new customers. But they need new customers in order to retain loyal customers. Trust me, it doesn't sound like it makes sense, but like NVIDIA says.

"IT JUST WORKS"

 

I myself have been an Intel/Nvidia combination guy my whole life, I previously would have never recommended AMD cards or CPU's, but their recent value/performance balance has been unreal. They also seem to have decent software and driver support so there's that. 

[Tristerin]

15 minutes ago, M.Yurizaki said:

Historical trends would point out that there is no time in history that a GPU in the midrange category managed to catch up to the top-end of the previous generation in one go. While I'm not ruling out the possibility that it could happen, I'm not holding my breath that it will.

 

EDIT: Well, I take the "no time" part back, since the GeForce4 Ti 4200 did match the GeForce3 500. But no time sense as far as I can tell.

 

The problem I see with this approach is people will be expecting it from then on. If AMD can't bring amaze-balls performance for cheap again, they'll lose whatever confidence the customer had in them overnight. Besides that, loss leaders need something else to bolster sales and recoup the lost revenue. AMD has almost nothing else on the consumer end they could charge, directly or indirectly, to make up for the loss in revenue.

I could agree with that - as a person who HATES his companies approaches.  But the reality is - my company now has doubled its market share and now generates around 100 million a quarter from my location alone, compared to that in a year.  I work for good ol' Warren Buffet - that mans got some sound business practices for taking over the world though I hate them in process.

 

The thing with Market Share is this - once your competitors don't have it, their stream of revenue disappears (or tanks) - and investors pull, causes all sorts of commotion.  Once you have that Stream of revenue you previously didn't - now is the time to become the best to ensure you keep the grips on the gains you have made.

 

I can only say that...I hate the way my company does/did it...but my bonus' quarterly reflect its successes.

 

And the thing about people and memories is this - its SHORT.  Every 4 years in the USA the population is duped into voting for the same jargon espoused at the previous election cycle (odd how these things are never "fixed" eh?) and people forget that every 4 years. lol

[bcredeur97]

35 minutes ago, OnyxArmos said:

I'll always stick with Nvidia, no matter what AMD comes out with

 

34 minutes ago, fasauceome said:

Well that's a rather stubborn approach. Personally I'd rather have whatever gives the best value, no point in sticking up for a soulless company.

exactly. imagine if we all did this. there'd be no competition and no incentive for nvidia to try things and keep moving tech forward. everything just stays stagnant and we never get anywhere

[Quadriplegic]

34 minutes ago, OnyxArmos said:

Nvidia graphics cards look sexy af tho bro

They don't hold a handle to Sapphire cards tho

[Tristerin]

19 minutes ago, nick name said:

The only way I could imagine AMD getting prices that low would be incredible yields on their GPU dies.  And I am assuming their chiplet design would help with that, but who knows how much.  

 

Also, I can understand trying to gain market share, but when you're talking about consumer GPUs you're usually not expecting folks to be frequent purchasers.  By that I mean a customer will buy one and then not buy another for a few or five years.  If AMD is trying to change that behavior with lower prices then it might work out, but probably not in the way a company that sells materials/consumables would see.  

Things made out of Titanium are to ensure their longevity we don't make tanks that fall apart.  Obama's bulletproof limo is a one and done etc.  Wont know what we made Trump till after he is out of office.

 

Business is very simple - you either sell your own widgets (anythings) or someone elses widgets (anythings) - doesn't matter what the widgets are.  Now there is one more business angle - selling knowledge - this is quite different (I own a MMA gym, I sell knowledge every day for a profit - but you have to be at the top of your game for this to be profitable)

 

Market share is market share - Drivers purchase Tires about the same frequency as the Gamer market replaces their GPU's.  And there are multiple tire shops in every city (because its less of a niche market than Gaming) - since there are only 2 "tire" shops for gamers - you got to get that market share.  Theres only so much market.

[Mira Yurizaki]

7 minutes ago, Tristerin said:

I could agree with that - as a person who HATES his companies approaches.  But the reality is - my company now has doubled its market share and now generates around 100 million a quarter from my location alone, compared to that in a year.  I work for good ol' Warren Buffet - that mans got some sound business practices for taking over the world though I hate them in process.

This has worked for your company which I'm sure is in a completely different sector than what AMD does. What works for your company may not work for another. And from what I could gather about loss leaders is for it to be effective for the company, there has to be something else with a higher profit margin to entice the customer with. Otherwise you're just going to lose money because the customer doesn't buy anything else. It's likely the reason why inkjet printers can be had for as much as their cartridges: you're going to buy more cartridges anyway, may as well sell the printer at a loss. What can AMD sell besides graphics cards for a higher profit margin? Not much else if anything at all.

Quote

The thing with Market Share is this - once your competitors don't have it, their stream of revenue disappears (or tanks) - and investors pull, causes all sorts of commotion.  Once you have that Stream of revenue you previously didn't - now is the time to become the best to ensure you keep the grips on the gains you have made.

But AMD doesn't really have much in the way of a continuous revenue stream from what I can tell. As people mentioned, people tend to buy core hardware like graphics cards once every three-four years. The "continuous" revenue stream is basically releasing a new product lineup regularly to get people who are not on the same cycle as everyone else. So either AMD has to release two-three generations of underpriced hardware, or risk pissing people off by doing it once, then selling the next generation at a price where they can get a profit.

 

Not to mention another issue: a GTX 1080 Ti performing card at $250 will drive the demand to insane levels. If AMD doesn't have the supply, retailers are just going to jack up the price and they'll reap the rewards. Not AMD.

[Tristerin]

Just now, M.Yurizaki said:

-snip-

Widgets, markets, knowledge - everything else is just "insert here".  Business is business.  Man I own a couple.  And I work for Warren Buffet.  I will say this - that tells me I have a decent grasp on what it takes to become profitable in different markets.

 

I own an MMA gym (Wolves Den Training Center - selling proprietary knowledge in Missouri), a auto shop (Jonesburg Autobody in Missouri - I don't work there, don't have to, just do tires anymore), and Militia Armaments Gun Shows in Missouri and connecting states (basically a Party Planner - but theres a market!).  On top of that I work for Warren Buffet (wont give out that companies name lol but willing to give out the rest - because lying over the internet is to easy and I want to back up my claims of understanding why these market conditions even exist.)

 

Now I could tell you how I beat out the competition since my gym is 4 years old, the shops been around for a long while, family owned but we still have to fight for market, and the gun shows...

 

MMA Gym?  Beyond having to have proved your knowledge in the cage, is having the lowest price, highest hours open than anyone else.  That's how I was able to shut down the other local gym in my town.  Now that old owner works for me.  We took the market share.  Been on Spike TV, dinner with Dana White etc.  Taking Market share allows you to do so much because you have money as well.

 

Auto Shop?  Tow prices, tire repair prices, everything - $10 cheaper than anyone else.  Your market is only locals for this anyways.  The best part - I own the property so no overhead.   I will say in this market you cant just raise prices up - people are always looking for the most affordable option here.

 

Gun Shows?  There was only 1 other competitor.  That's why we started it.  He was charging $12 at the door for admission.  We charged $7...then $10....now $12...and make more money than we ever have...we stole the market share by inundating the market with more gun shows than the market would sustain (made LOW profit during these times) and chased out the competitor (who tried to buy us out at 200,000) - now we make up to $20k profit a weekend.

 

Im not trying to brag, trying to give some understanding that I have a decent grasp on how to work the markets, and why we work the markets.

[Mira Yurizaki]

1 minute ago, Tristerin said:

-Snip-

The examples you provided are for services, not products. It's hard to quantify how "good" a service is compared to someone else other than the customer satisfaction rating and how many you have. And at best that's still subjective.

 

What we have here is asking if AMD can create a product that easily performs double that of their current generation in the price segment. You could argue that yes, they've done this before with Ryzen, but they also were coming from a very low bar to begin with. The RX 580 is a competent GPU at its price point. To take one of your examples, the auto shop, you may as well be offering free services for all minor repairs and maintenance, including the cost for parts.

[Mira Yurizaki]

Also the other problem with AMD selling a 3080 that performs as well as a 1080 Ti for $250: NVIDIA can do that too with their products. And they're in a very comfortable position to do so.

[Tristerin]

1 minute ago, M.Yurizaki said:

The examples you provided are for services, not products. It's hard to quantify how "good" a service is compared to someone else other than the customer satisfaction rating and how many you have. And at best that's still subjective.

 

What we have here is asking if AMD can create a product that easily performs double that of their current generation in the price segment. You could argue that yes, they've done this before with Ryzen, but they also were coming from a very low bar to begin with. The RX 580 is a competent GPU at its price point. To take one of your examples, the auto shop, you may as well be offering free services for all minor repairs and maintenance, including the cost for parts.

 

Its all subjective - this is a discussion. 

 

We are talking about the same Company that launched the same GPU chip for 3 generations of cards.  Anyone looking out to in would say WTF WTF WHY WOULD YOU DO THAT.  Me?  Its to keep everyone saying their name during the lul in the GPU market.  If they didn't launch 590's no one would be talking about them.  And famous and infamous are the same exact thing in the realm of marketing (and when there are 2 outlets...being infamous doesn't matter if your price is great).

 

I just completely disagree that it would be "bad" for AMD to break even and take over the market.  Id do the same thing (Ive done the same thing - and you can do this when you have multiple streams of revenue - like AMD does - CPU, Workstation, and Server class), because I don't look for ROI within the same year.  That's short term thinking that leads to me working for someone else.  Long term thinking has allowed me to have multiple streams of income.

 

Ill leave it at that, not trying to argue, I just know I have more experience than most on this forum (and isn't experience a large portion of understanding?) with running multiple, multi-faceted, businesses and achieving market share to make them profitable.  Risk and reward.

2 minutes ago, M.Yurizaki said:

Also the other problem with AMD selling a 3080 that performs as well as a 1080 Ti for $250: NVIDIA can do that too with their products. And they're in a very comfortable position to do so.

 

No they cannot - they have shut down production of the Pascal chip.  What you see now is reserves and the market is ABSOLUTELY reflecting that in price.  Very high price.  Now they COULD reopen the 1080 lines back up - but that takes millions to do.  It halts progress as well and in the market of (IN TODAY, OUTDATED TOMORROW) tech that's really not smart.

 

They cannot afford to drop the RTX price, because the premium is paying for the research it took to get here, and also satisfy the Board of Directors. 

 

I will take a step back and say the COULD - but from my opinioned perspective - that's going to work out badly for them.

[ravenshrike]

Possible? Depends entirely on 7nm yields and how much of a jump in performance Navi is. Probable? No.

[Supportsneedlove]

1 hour ago, OnyxArmos said:

Nvidia graphics cards look sexy af tho bro

Reference cools like shite and aftermarket ones aren't brand specefic. 

[GoldenLag]

none of the numbers are impossible from what we know.

 

price is likely going to be 299$ instead as the community thought 250 was too cheap. 

 

again these are price targets and they probably do not have test silicon out yet. yields will improve and they need these chips for playstation or similar consoles (which are likely cutdown version of the chip to up sale yields)

[Syntaxvgm]

2 hours ago, OnyxArmos said:

I'll always stick with Nvidia, no matter what AMD comes out with

AMD sells a card with turbo ray tracing and 28x the performance of the next generation cards, resulting in a causal loop, all for 25$. 

At the same time, NVIDIA staples a dildo to a wooden PCI slot blank and sells it for 5 grand. 

In that situation, do you switch? 

[Syntaxvgm]

1 minute ago, OnyxArmos said:

... You sure you want an answer to that?

it's not a good dildo, it's like a cheap dildo made with questionable materials. 

[Syntaxvgm]

3 minutes ago, OnyxArmos said:

Then I'd buy the AMD one....

but not to use as a graphics card

ouch hope it's low profile with a  backplate. 

Wonder how many megaflops your asshole would have? 

[Tristerin]

Im now here solely for the newest discussion...continue while I lurk in the dark corner where you can barely make out my "jostling" silhouette.

[Tristerin]

Just now, Syntaxvgm said:

ouch hope it's low profile with a  backplate. 

Wonder how many megaflops your asshole would have? 

Gigaflops...gigaflops

[Syntaxvgm]

Just now, Tristerin said:

Gigaflops...gigaflops

megaflops sounds funnier and there more of them 

[Tristerin]

Just now, Syntaxvgm said:

megaflops sounds funnier and there more of them 

With that in mind, I cannot disagree.