corona virus

[Canoe]

42 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Something here doesn't seem right to me... HOW can the flu, which is a seasonal virus, relate to a "preexisting condition"?

It can't be.

That's why I put the explanation. Much of the simple low-cost insurance does not cover pre-existing conditions. That's why the fee rate is so low. (turns up a lot in travel/travel-medical insurance) Although health care costs are so inflated in the U.S. it's nuts, and they usually take that to any possible extreme. There's even some states where pharmacies are banned by law from informing clients when the prescription they're getting would cost less if they paid it themselves, than if they put it through their insurance plan. As in, it's $50 if you pay out of pocket, but if paid by insurance, the insurance company's scheduled "cost" is $450, and your co-pay is $120. The typical is a co-pay can be double, triple or more, than what anyone else off the street would pay. AND, that $450 comes off the total covered/coverable per year.

 

As in the article, it's described how insurance will scour the Pt. records for a hint of the disease. They'll yell Pre Existing on any hint, and you have to fight it, likely lawyer up, and that typically costs tons in the U.S.. Most can't afford to do that.

 

I ran into similar with a neighbour I was helping with a disability claim through his work. They (the insurance company) were trying to say that his condition occurred after he stopped work (wouldn't be covered), rather than being the cause of him being unable to work. Just at the point I was going to get him a lawyer, a nurse from the insurance company called me, I explained that I was going to get his pharmacy records to see if they had filled prescriptions for that condition. She said she would. An hour later his claim was approved (after over a year and a half after stop work), and backpay was made and co-ordinated with the city and province disability support I had got him when he was destitute, and long term disability payments started the next week. Note that those paying out do have a duty to take due diligence to ensure they only pay out for insured claims, but in the U.S. they're so profit driven they take that to extremes. In another case I was on a conference call with a woman and the insurance company including their nurse and lawyer. The woman started crying at all of the medical info the company wanted in addition to that already supplied; "why are they being so mean". I had to ask everyone to hold for a moment to explain to her how they had their duty to ensure a claim was valid; then she was fine with answering reasonable questions. It's not a pleasant process.

 

For the man in Miami and his flu, by declaring "prove it's not pre-existing", they don't have to pay out if he doesn't have or can't get the records. If he can get them the records, they'll scour them for an excuse to claim pre-existing. As a business, that's what they'll always do. I've never heard of any exceptions.

Edited February 24, 2020 by Canoe
clarifications, and lots and lots of spelling...

[Lii]

Just wondering.. How do you know if a mask declared as p99/n95 or whatever its as it is declared, and not a fake one?

[Canoe]

Feb 24 EOD data is out

 

• Yesterday, Feb 23, the CSSE data listed Lackland had 2, Omaha had 11 and Travis had 5, total 18 Confirmed.
• Today, Feb 24, the CSSE data lists the three Diamond Princess locations in US zeroed out, with a new "Unassigned Location (From Diamond Princess) US" with 36 Confirmed.

 

Lackland, TX (From Diamond Princess) US 2020-02-24T23:33:02 0 0 0

Omaha, NE (From Diamond Princess) US 2020-02-24T23:33:02 0 0 0

Travis, CA (From Diamond Princess) US 2020-02-24T23:33:02 0 0 0

Unassigned Location (From Diamond Princess) US 2020-02-24T23:33:02 36 0 0

 

***

 

Again, CNHC daily update replaces CSSE Hubei eod.

 

 

***

 

 

 

 

 

[Canoe]

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

 

Europe: Imported Cases vs. Community Transmission

 

[PhantomJaguarr]

Quote

There are now 53 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. as more people who returned from the Diamond Princess cruise ship tested positive for the virus, according to a new update from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That's a total of 39 U.S. nationals who had been on the Diamond Princess who have been infected by the virus.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cdc-there-are-now-53-covid-19-cases-in-us-as-more-diamond-princess-passengers-test-positive-2020-02-24

 

Seems justified to me how 2 cities I previously mentioned blocked state/federal government  efforts to move quarantined patients with little to no notice.

[greenmax]

Figures Ontario got another case. Can always expect that from Ontario.

[Canoe]

 

 

[SteveZhang]

13 hours ago, Xvaster said:

Just wondering.. How do you know if a mask declared as p99/n95 or whatever its as it is declared, and not a fake one?

Firstly check the production standard number and product registration number on the box.What's more,the words printed on masks such as N95,are laser etched and have 45-degree twills.Fakes ones may be printed with ink due to cost and technical limitations ,so they cannot present twills.Some of them are uneven dots.Don't ask me how did I know that

[Guest]

So... Let's go with the daily news...

 

Croatia joins the club of the infected countries with 1 case

Italy: 2 new regions infected (Sicily and Tuscany) with 1 case each. Deaths count went up to 6...

Iran: 3 more deaths and a Vice-Minister of the government infected.

Diamond Princess: a 4th passenger is dead.

South Korea: 60 new cases

 

4 new countries of the Arabic Peninsula have joined the Infected Clu: Koweit, Irak, Bahrein and Oman.

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Tony Tony Chopper said:

Did't cases update yet or is there a down trend going on ?

There is a down trend in China and a few other countries.

But you have some new countries with a weak Health Care System added to the list... And there it's deadly... Look at Iran: 12 deaths since last week... There it's expanding...

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, Tony Tony Chopper said:

 

Actually there 15 death in Iran now.

Yes, you're right! ^o^

I didn't count the 3 since yesterday. So... 15...

 

Plus the 4 new countries to the infected added in the Middle-East.

The Middle-East... I let you imagine what it's going to be with the Hajj as this one SEEMS it's not going to die out by itself like the SARS or the MERS...

[Guest]

To divert the subject from the lunatic conspiration theories (don't get me wrong I don't want the 5G for many reasons, but none of them has to do with "this" O_o),

 

The bugger managed to migrate in Austria with 2 cases.

[RejZoR]

Everyone freaking out that people die, yet no one tells the condition of those people prior infection. Coz surely healthy people don't just drop dead from this virus. Just like they don't from common flu that kills thousands and thousands of people every year.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, RejZoR said:

Everyone freaking out that people die, yet no one tells the condition of those people prior infection. Coz surely healthy people don't just drop dead from this virus. Just like they don't from common flu that kills thousands and thousands of people every year.

I don't really agree with you here.

It has been written more than once (here and on the different news websites) that those who are elderly and/or with some preexistent conditions are more fragile to the virus.

All you need is something that will immuno-depress your system.

 

But people who are healthy are also in danger. Many cases happened.

 

Plus numerous cases of people who after recovery have some health problems (kidneys, liver, lungs, heart).

Also the fact that once recovered you can get the bug again and then it's more dangerous as your sysytem is laready weakened.

[Guest]

There it is!!

I was writing about it yesterday (2 days ago??) as a comment about the NYT Opinion article, about the dependance to India and China for our medicines.

 

And today in Le Monde there an article exactly about that, with Sanofi about to create a new entity devoted to manufacture and distribute more than 200 molecules in their plants in Europe.

 

The companies are now starting to change their global strategies of manufacturing and distribution.

 

Article in english (Google Translate):

Spoiler

Drug shortages: Sanofi wants to create a leader in active pharmaceutical ingredients

The French group aims to create the world number two in the sector. Objective: reduce Europe’s dependence on Asian imports, while the Covid-19 reveals the weaknesses of the global production chain.

The French pharmacy giant Sanofi announced Monday (February 24th) the creation of a new entity dedicated to the manufacture of active ingredients. Composed of six of the eleven chemical factories of the group, this subsidiary could be listed on the Stock Exchange by 2022. With a target of one billion euros in turnover, it would become the world number two behind the Swiss Lonza. The sites concerned - all located in Europe, including two in France - currently market around 200 molecules for customers in 80 countries. The company, whose name has not yet been released, would have its headquarters in the Paris region, and would take over the 3,100 employees of the factories, including a thousand in France.

With this project, the group grabs the ball on the jump. "For the past two weeks, we have seen calls from customers returning to Europe saying:" We can no longer supply ourselves. Can you make more for us? ” Said Philippe Luscan, head of industrial affairs for the group, referring to the manufacturers' difficulties in sourcing from China due to the measures taken to halt the spread of the Covid-19. The country is the world's leading supplier of active ingredients to the pharmaceutical industry: laboratories buy there "in bulk" and at low cost the components of their analgesics, antibiotics and anticancer drugs. Without this essential link, the entire global production chain is seized up.
"At this stage, no problem of access or shortage of medicines has been reported (...), neither in France nor at European level. But the global pharmaceutical industry is very dependent on raw material production activities in China, "admitted former health minister Agnès Buzyn in mid-February. "And if this production were to be reduced for a long period, impacts on the availability of certain drugs would be possible," she warned. In these circumstances, "having a European player who produces a large part of the catalog on its soil is a considerable element of security for the French and European authorities," argues Philippe Luscan.
"The competitiveness delta is tightening", which could benefit this new company, he added, stressing the efforts made by Sanofi to boost the performance of its factories. Long favored by the low cost of production, Chinese manufacturers have had to raise their prices in recent years to pass on wage increases and investments made in order to meet more stringent environmental standards.
"Supply tensions"

The "made in Europe" could be all the more attractive as the active ingredients represent only 10% of the price of a drug of origin (that is to say still protected by a patent) and 40% of the price of '' a generic drug, according to a report published in 2017 by the Interministerial Pole for Prospective and Anticipation of Economic Changes (Pipame).
The six factories concerned by the project already realize 50% of their sales with third parties. With this spin-off, Sanofi hopes to win over new customers. "Laboratories that want to develop active ingredients for new drugs do not come to Sanofi saying" you are a competitor ", so we are not going to ask you to manufacture for us. A separate entity from Sanofi will see opportunities for new drugs, ”says Luscan.

The concerns related to the Covid-19 echo those, more general, about the stock-outs. According to the National Medicines Safety Agency (ANSM), 871 "supply tensions" were reported in 2018, ten times more than a decade ago. The lack of active ingredients is not the only reason. "Just-in-time production is widespread in pharmaceutical companies," noted a 2018 Senate report on drug shortages. “These identify the creation of safety stocks or the doubling of production capacities as costly expense items that are incompatible with their profitability objectives. "
Result: when production is insufficient, laboratories have no other choice than to arbitrate, against a backdrop of competition between states and price wars. In the absence of an agreement with the pharmaceutical companies, France has finally decided to take more restrictive measures: the Social Security Financing Law (LFSS) for 2020 has created an obligation for pharmaceutical manufacturers to build up security stocks of up to four months. This provision, which is to come into force on June 30, 2020, provides for financial penalties in the event of non-compliance.

 

Source: Le Monde

 

 

[Canoe]

And South Korea had another 84 on top of that 60, showing 977.

Itally is up to 283.

Japan a little higher at 170, Honkong to 90.

Iran catches up their numbers, to 95.

 

[Guest]

And it's Switzerland's turn to join the club now with 1 case in the Canton of Tessin (near Italy).

 

Well... now all the limitrophe countries to Italy got it.

We know for sure that the case in Croatia is linked to Italy, as the infected man spent a few days in Milan between Feb 19th and 21st. (That's quick!)

[Canoe]

• In the graphs I've been posting, they are only showing the Severe cases from Mainland China, as those are the overwhelming count of cases.
  • From recent detections elsewhere, that may be changing.
• They are not adjusted for any Severe nor rates outside of Mainland China, nor are those rates yet available. In other regions, it is too early in detection (with some catch up detection taking place), and in the course of the disease.

 

Here's a projection of deaths, based solely on the graph. There is no adjustment for anything.

• Not really a valid projection, it is more accurately a What If.
• What if Severe trended down to zero. (by the polynomial curve, or by straight line)
• It assumes that when there are no more Severe cases, new deaths should effectively be near zero.
• The global deaths trendline is a polynomial that is nearly a straight line.
• This does NOT reflect the new and rising detections outside of Mainland China.

 

~Edit: this also assumes no further develoment or success with more improvements in interventions reducing Confirmed becoming Severe, or Severe dying.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 25, 2020 by Canoe

[Canoe]

37 minutes ago, VegetableStu said:

so there has been updates to the arcgis tracker, and i noticed the one for malaysia doesn't take into account that the territory has two main bodies of land. they are literally east and west malaysia and i feel like the stats should differentiate locate them accordingly ._.

There was some trouble with the CSSE dashboard yesterday. Seems to be working now. Monitoring the sources today, I'm not getting newer values.

 

While the dashboard aggregates the data they have, what they can report is limited to what is provided by the source. You can see more detailed data and their source list at

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

Both the Daily Report and the Time Series list Malaysia as a single value.

[Canoe]

1 minute ago, VegetableStu said:

oh oof ._. so that's on malaysia then

Not necessarily. It may be Malaysia or the WHO combining reported data.

[Lii]

5 hours ago, SteveZhang said:

Firstly check the production standard number and product registration number on the box.What's more,the words printed on masks such as N95,are laser etched and have 45-degree twills.Fakes ones may be printed with ink due to cost and technical limitations ,so they cannot present twills.Some of them are uneven dots.Don't ask me how did I know that

but even if the registration number is tracked, cannot they just use an origianal one and use it for several fake mask?

 

[Guest]

Several international schools in Europe are asking their pupils who went Italy during the Carnival holidays (last (2) week(s) was/were school holidays in many european countries) to stay at home and be quarantined.

Regarding that there are also cases in Austria and Switzerland (and these holidays are usually a time when kids and their parents from all over Europe go skiing usually in the Alps, so France-Italy-Austria or the Pyrrénées, so France-Spain --> 1 case in Barcelona...) it wouldn't be surprising if these 2 destinations were added to the list of quarantine for the schools.

 

The European Schools are the schools primarily for the children of the people working for the European Community and the European Administration. External pupils are accepted in exchange for a fee (private school).

 

2 examples of messages:
https://www.islux.lu

http://www.euroschool.lu/site/2020/02/24/alerte-covid-19-2/

 

Edited February 25, 2020 by Guest
Added some infos

[Canoe]

My midday tally, which is not complete, shows 1,999 Confirmed cases outside of Mainland China and the Diamond Princess.

 

Washington Post conronavirus live update has a number of items

• “Ultimately, we expect we will see community spread in the United States,” Nancy Messonnier, a top official at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters. “It’s not a question of if this will happen but when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illnesses.”
• A Chinese health official warned that at least 28 days without new cases are needed to be able to say an area is free of the outbreak, raising questions about how long it will take for normal life to resume.
• Beyond the deaths, stock market plunges and widespread fears of contagion, the coronavirus is causing panic in all kinds of smaller, mundane ways ... Roughly 80 percent of the world’s Western-style gowns come from China, ... “If you have tracking number, if you know your merchandise is in this country, you’re probably pretty safe, but if you don’t have that information, I would go ahead and get a plan B going
• Wall Street whipsawed Tuesday, with the Dow Jones industrial average digging itself into a 300-point hole after wiping out a 150-point gain, as investors worried that the novel coronavirus is spreading faster and more broadly than thought.
• While South Korea has run more than 35,000 coronavirus tests, the United States has tested only 426 people for the virus, not including people who returned on evacuation flights. Only a handful of state laboratories can currently run tests outside of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta because the CDC kits sent out nationwide a week and a half ago included a faulty component.
• Some French train drivers refuse to enter Italy - ... Some French SNCF train drivers on Milan-bound trains will stop at the border between France and Italy, where they will be replaced by Italian drivers, who will then operate the rest of the route
• Iranian deputy health minister and opposition lawmaker say they are infected with the coronavirus. ... Mahmoud Sadeghi, 57, said on his verified Twitter account that he tested positive for the virus and that he “doesn’t have much hope to stay alive.”
• Italy on Tuesday also confirmed cases in Veneto, Emilia-Romagna, Piedmont, Lazio, Tuscany, Sicily and Bolzano.
• A hotel on the Spanish island of Tenerife, off the coast of West Africa, was placed on lockdown Tuesday after a guest from northern Italy tested positive for the coronavirus.
• British Health Secretary Matt Hancock said that anybody returning from northern Italy — areas north of Pisa — should self-isolate “if they have flu-like symptoms.” He added that anybody who has traveled to areas around the country that the Italian government has quarantined should self-isolate “whether or not they have symptoms.”
• The Cheshire Live news site reported that a local school in Cheshire, England, was closing for a week amid concerns over students showing flu-like symptoms following a school ski trip last week to Bormio in the Lombardy region of Italy.
• Chinese woman who tested negative eight times has coronavirus. The 56-year-old woman had been working in a hotel in Chongqing where she came into contact with an infected staff member, according to officials in Anyue county in Sichuan province. The woman was placed under medical observation on Feb. 2, local news site Sichuan Observer reported on Tuesday, and she was subsequently tested for coronavirus eight times between Feb. 7 and Feb. 23. A hospital test on Feb. 24 confirmed that she had the novel coronavirus,
• Friday, Hubei province announced that a 70-year-old man in Sennongjiang was confirmed as having coronavirus after a 27-day incubation period.

 

***

• Hawaii to get CDC test kits in mid March. Hawaii has or is going to ask Japan for some kits.
• There should be a global health security expert on the National Security Council coordinating the response to outbreaks like the coronavirus. But the Trump administration has left that job vacant for nearly 2 years.
• Kong Kong to extend school closures to April 20.
• Korean Air flight attendant tests positive for #SARSCoV2. Airline office of Korean Air closed in Seoul’s capital airport.
• South Korean health authorities said they plan to test potentially more than 200,000 members of a church at the epicentre of the outbreak. On Tuesday, the leader of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus said it had agreed to provide authorities with the names of all its members in South Korea, estimated by media at about 215,000 people.
  • South Korean nears having tested 40,000 people: Total, under testing, tested negative.

    39,327

    13,880

    25,447

• A total of 6,536 coronavirus tests have been conducted in the UK as of 14:00 GMT on Monday, with 6,527 returning as negative,

• A hotel in the Austrian Alps has been put on lockdown after an Italian receptionist working there contracted the virus.

  Officials haven't named the hotel, but they have said it's in the Alpine city of Innsbruck. It's also not clear how long it will remain on lockdown.

  Austria's Interior Minister Karl Nehammer told reporters: "No one can get in or out of the hotel to make sure that if other infected people are staying in the hotel, the virus won't be spread.

Update:

My midday tally, which is not complete, shows 2,048 Confirmed cases outside of Mainland China and the Diamond Princess.

 

p.s. Italy at 322.

[Guest]

10 hours ago, VegetableStu said:

wait, actual SARS, or C19? o_o

 

(if it's C19, that #tag needs to die)

SARS-CoV-2 = CoVidOVID-19

 

SARS-CoV-2 = virus name

CoVidOVID-19 = sickness name

Edited February 26, 2020 by Guest
It would seem I made a spelling mistake... :rolling eyes

[SteveZhang]

8 hours ago, Xvaster said:

but even if the registration number is tracked, cannot they just use an origianal one and use it for several fake mask?

 

Well,crafty counterfeiters do copy the original registration number,so it's also necessary to check the words printed on the mask,fake ones use ink to print,while quality ones use laser to etch and have twills,not spots.If a fake one can be as I said,you're so unlucky that you meet a extremly "intelligent " counterfeiters.