Why do people think the RTX4080/Nvidia is failing?

[ImperialKnightErrant]

This strategy was announced by Jensen way back in September.

https://hardforum.com/threads/nvidia-market-manipulation.2021800/

 

The 4080 is in fact doing EXACTLY what it was meant to do spectacularly, move RTX 3000 cards. And move them it has. Nvidia is laughing all the way to the bank at people buying RTX 3000 cards at 2 years old MSRPs. Once Nvidia clears out the 3000 stock, they can drop the price of the 4080 any time they like, and people will still lap it up. Any 4080 Nvidia sells at this point is a bonus, even if they sold ZERO 4080s, they would still be winning if people are buying RTX3000 cards.

 

The only way Nvidia would have failed is if people not buy any RTX 3000 nor 4000 cards.

 

Or am I the crazy one here?

[Mick Naughty]

Where are the sources at saying it’s failing?

[Blue4130]

3 hours ago, ImperialKnightErrant said:

This strategy was announced by Jensen way back in September.

https://hardforum.com/threads/nvidia-market-manipulation.2021800/

 

The 4080 is in fact doing EXACTLY what it was meant to do spectacularly, move RTX 3000 cards. And move them it has. Nvidia is laughing all the way to the bank at people buying RTX 3000 cards at 2 years old MSRPs. Once Nvidia clears out the 3000 stock, they can drop the price of the 4080 any time they like, and people will still lap it up. Any 4080 Nvidia sells at this point is a bonus, even if they sold ZERO 4080s, they would still be winning if people are buying RTX3000 cards.

 

The only way Nvidia would have failed is if people not buy any RTX 3000 nor 4000 cards.

 

Or am I the crazy one here?

I think you are the crazy one. I don't see anyone claiming that it is failing. I only see people saying that it is bad value/over priced. 

[jaslion]

1 hour ago, Blue4130 said:

I think you are the crazy one. I don't see anyone claiming that it is failing. I only see people saying that it is bad value/over priced. 

Most Ive seen are reports that its selling poorly which I can back up for where I live from 2 retailers but thats about it.

 

 

[Stahlmann]

It was the first GPU in ages that didn't sell out on launch day. That basically never happened even before crypto and covid. The GPU is not bad, in fact it's among the fastest GPUs out there. It's just priced terribly so there is no value to speak of in the current market context.

 

That makes it end up in a weird place:

People that care about value shop in a much lower price bracket.

People that just want the best go all the way to the 4090.

That leaves a very small amount of potential customers for the 4080.

[Blue4130]

52 minutes ago, jaslion said:

Most Ive seen are reports that its selling poorly which I can back up for where I live from 2 retailers but thats about it.

 

 

Where I am, it shows less than covid sales (ie - not sold out instantly) But sales seem to be happening. Not up to what many armchair critics may have speculated, but I would not call it failing.

[jaslion]

16 minutes ago, Blue4130 said:

Where I am, it shows less than covid sales (ie - not sold out instantly) But sales seem to be happening. Not up to what many armchair critics may have speculated, but I would not call it failing.

Guess it depends on where you are.

 

Here they are going for around 1500€ which is a horrible price as even some 3090ti's are below that

[Coaxialgamer]

Who's claiming an imminent NVIDIA bankruptcy here? I certainly haven't seen those comments.

"Not selling well" can easily be code for "not selling as well as Nvidia would have hoped". It certainly doesn't mean they aren't making money.

 

It makes sense certainly, if true: iirc Nvidia banked on continued demand for GPUs from crypto which didn't end up materializing, and they've been raising their card prices generation over generation for a while now. The idea that their newer cards aren't flying off the shelves isn't surprising to me.

 

Nvidia is doing exactly what they should be doing as a company. Acting scummy to make more $$$ at the expense of everyone else is part of that playbook. And while I don't blame them inherently, it still sucks and I do dislike them intensely for it.

[PriitM]

9 hours ago, ImperialKnightErrant said:

This strategy was announced by Jensen way back in September.

https://hardforum.com/threads/nvidia-market-manipulation.2021800/

 

The 4080 is in fact doing EXACTLY what it was meant to do spectacularly, move RTX 3000 cards. And move them it has. Nvidia is laughing all the way to the bank at people buying RTX 3000 cards at 2 years old MSRPs. Once Nvidia clears out the 3000 stock, they can drop the price of the 4080 any time they like, and people will still lap it up. Any 4080 Nvidia sells at this point is a bonus, even if they sold ZERO 4080s, they would still be winning if people are buying RTX3000 cards.

 

The only way Nvidia would have failed is if people not buy any RTX 3000 nor 4000 cards.

 

Or am I the crazy one here?

Consider the following: 2 years of shortages. Massive pandering to miners. No action against scalping. Pushing arguments for high prices only to be blatantly wrong (chip shortage turning into overstocking for RTX30 series). The taste in consumers mouth is a little bit more than bitter and sour combined. Its not about RTX40 failing.... its about sending a clear message. Nvidia, get yer head out of PR and profit. 

And if you think about it, Nvidia also lost out on the market segment of actual gamers. I think losing a whole segments money is worse than actually getting revenue by selling at MSRP or less...

[Sarra]

1 hour ago, Coaxialgamer said:

Nvidia is doing exactly what they should be doing as a company. Acting scummy to make more $$$ at the expense of everyone else is part of that playbook. And while I don't blame them inherently, it still sucks and I do dislike them intensely for it.

I disagree. When companies build up enough negative sentiment from their consumer base, there can be repercussions.

 

If their sales drop enough, the shareholders get pissy, then they're forced to change, usually for the worse, which makes their shareholders more pissy, which then leads to rich people getting fired and being rich outside of the company.

 

Companies acting scummy isn't anything new. Just keep in mind, there are probably shareholders that are pulling the strings, and we should really be angry at them. That, and scalpers. Just round 'em all up and throw rotten tomatoes at them all until they give up and leave the market alone.

[Coaxialgamer]

34 minutes ago, Sarra said:

I disagree. When companies build up enough negative sentiment from their consumer base, there can be repercussions.

 

If their sales drop enough, the shareholders get pissy, then they're forced to change, usually for the worse, which makes their shareholders more pissy, which then leads to rich people getting fired and being rich outside of the company.

 

Companies acting scummy isn't anything new. Just keep in mind, there are probably shareholders that are pulling the strings, and we should really be angry at them. That, and scalpers. Just round 'em all up and throw rotten tomatoes at them all until they give up and leave the market alone.

Here's the thing: I don't think I've encountered anyone who knows anything about the GPU industry who actually likes Nvidia as a company. Look at most tech youtubers for example: Linus rips them a new one every other week on WAN show because of how toxic they are.

 

By and large though, people aren't going to stop buying Nvidia GPUs because of it. Professionals are still going to buy Nvidia because of CUDA, and that's ultimately the segment that matters to NVIDIA shareholders because of the margins. Nvidia will still keep selling cards to OEMs for the brand recognition alone, as will a majority of PC gamers. You can look at their overall market share and their dominance on the steam hardware survey as proof of that, despite their behavior over the last 5 years.

It's not like their cards are bad either, which doesn't help when it comes to stopping consumers from buying them. It's not like their competition is undercutting them all that much or offering much of a value add.

 

I'd like to think people vote with their wallets, but we've seen terrible behavior go unpunished by consumer habits time and time again. Day-one DLC and the use of subscriptions on an increasing share of the software we use are just two big examples of this in tech, so it's not a stretch to say that people are numb to Nvidia's behaviour.

 

When I wrote that original comment I meant it in a purely (ruthlessly) capitalist sense: companies exist to generate profit, and publicly-traded companies have a duty to generate as much profit for their shareholders. Nvidia's profits have exploded in the last few years, and the increase in GPU pricing we've seen is evidence that people are willing to buy  their cards for much higher prices. If Nvidia can get away with selling a 60-class GPU for 400 USD instead of 200USD, why should they not take advantage of that? Even if the prices do drive some customers away entirely, the increased margins will be more than enough to make up for it.

 

[Sarra]

1 minute ago, Coaxialgamer said:

I'd like to think people vote with their wallets, but we've seen terrible behavior go unpunished by consumer habits time and time again.

I voted with mine. The last NVidia card I purchased was a 980. Unless AMD totally bombs, I'm sticking with them, too.

 

2 minutes ago, Coaxialgamer said:

Linus rips them a new one every other week on WAN show because of how toxic they are.

Eventually, toxicity catches up with the C Suite. It will eventually effect the bottom line of the company. And eventually, in a good universe, AMD will provide an alternative to CUDA that forces NVidia to actually compete, and they either will realize that being toxic isn't productive and fix it, or they will fail. Maybe not in a  'company falling apart' way, but... We'll have to see.

 

I can say that on the consumer side, their AIB's should jump ship. If NVidia is competing against Intel, AMD, AND their former AIB's, they might actually lose enough market share over time that it does effect their profit margins enough to cause serious shakeups at the company.

 

Their prices are stupid AF. They are just handing market share to AMD right now, it's actually pretty funny in a way.

[Coaxialgamer]

1 minute ago, Sarra said:

I voted with mine. The last NVidia card I purchased was a 980. Unless AMD totally bombs, I'm sticking with them, too.

 

Eventually, toxicity catches up with the C Suite. It will eventually effect the bottom line of the company. And eventually, in a good universe, AMD will provide an alternative to CUDA that forces NVidia to actually compete, and they either will realize that being toxic isn't productive and fix it, or they will fail. Maybe not in a  'company falling apart' way, but... We'll have to see.

 

I can say that on the consumer side, their AIB's should jump ship. If NVidia is competing against Intel, AMD, AND their former AIB's, they might actually lose enough market share over time that it does effect their profit margins enough to cause serious shakeups at the company.

 

Their prices are stupid AF. They are just handing market share to AMD right now, it's actually pretty funny in a way.

Eventually, yes. If Nvidia kept producing bad products they'd eventually lose their dominance in the market, in principle.

Here's the thing though: that's not in any way realistically going to happen, because it would require AMD to outperform and especially out-advertise them while also being far more aggressive in building partnerships with software companies. In practice, that means outspending Nvidia for the better part of a decade. As it stands today Nvidia outspends AMD in R&D by about a billion dollars, and they don't have a CPU division to run.

 

Expecting AMD to successfully outpace NVIDIA and maintain that lead for long enough to seriously affect their prospects (both industry-wide and in consumer minds) is akin to expecting a miracle. CUDA alone has so much inertia that getting openCL back up in front is likely to be an insurmountable effort without multilateral industry support.

 

It's good that you're voting with your wallet here, as have I (Nvidia ain't seeing a dime of my money given that my GPUs are used), but I should also point out that Nvidia's market share has, if anything, increased over the last couple years, and certainly shows no time of declining.

 

Their only realistic competition here is Intel given the money that company has, but I'm afraid they aren't really all that commited either.

 

[SimplyChunk]

I still don't understand (or maybe they have i don't know) why intel isn't on groveled knee at EVGA's door offering a nice juicey markup on ARC GPUs at the minute.  The experience and technical know-how EVGA must posses at this point in the GPU market would certainly deserve at least SOME attention from somewhere in the ARC skunkworks surely.  Not only that.  I'm sure there are some engineers within EVGA that have some insights into why the ARC drivers suck in some games.

[SimplyChunk]

8 hours ago, Blue4130 said:

I think you are the crazy one. I don't see anyone claiming that it is failing. I only see people saying that it is bad value/over priced.

Mondays Techlinked in not so few words

[freeagent]

The bottom line is no one wants to spend the big dollars to get the big performance. People are fed up with high prices on everything they consume. This is supposed to be a hobby, not a very good hobby if you are priced out at every corner. I know there are some guys who don't care about price, but many do. Why spend thousands every year for the latest and greatest only for it to get demolished the next cycle and you spend all over again. People are thinking with their wallets and not their hearts.

[Sarra]

4 minutes ago, freeagent said:

The bottom line is no one wants to spend the big dollars to get the big performance. People are fed up with high prices on everything they consume. This is supposed to be a hobby, not a very good hobby if you are priced out at every corner. I know there are some guys who don't care about price, but many do. Why spend thousands every year for the latest and greatest only for it to get demolished the next cycle and you spend all over again. People are thinking with their wallets and not their hearts.

I'm willing to spend reasonable money on big performance.

 

I bought a scalper priced card for less than MSRP of the 4080. That's just sad.

 

Will the 5080 be $3,000? Or should it be $800? Guessing that NVidia wants to sell them for $3k a piece, I suspect that if they seriously felt they could get that much, they would do it.

[ewitte]

It is not "failing" just selling very poorly.  Seems like much poorer than even Nvidia anticipated.  People in that price range are going for a 4090 instead.  "Last gen" isn't the same target market so that is just people looking for a deal.

[JimmyJJones]

57 minutes ago, Sarra said:

I'm willing to spend reasonable money on big performance.

 

I bought a scalper priced card for less than MSRP of the 4080. That's just sad.

 

Will the 5080 be $3,000? Or should it be $800? Guessing that NVidia wants to sell them for $3k a piece, I suspect that if they seriously felt they could get that much, they would do it.

You bought a 4090 for $1100?!

 

Could you please link that scalper?  I want a 4090 for $1100 too.

[JimmyJJones]

7 minutes ago, ewitte said:

It is not "failing" just selling very poorly.  Seems like much poorer than even Nvidia anticipated.  People in that price range are going for a 4090 instead.  "Last gen" isn't the same target market so that is just people looking for a deal.

Sold out is selling poorly?

[JimmyJJones]

1 hour ago, freeagent said:

The bottom line is no one wants to spend the big dollars to get the big performance. People are fed up with high prices on everything they consume. This is supposed to be a hobby, not a very good hobby if you are priced out at every corner. I know there are some guys who don't care about price, but many do. Why spend thousands every year for the latest and greatest only for it to get demolished the next cycle and you spend all over again. People are thinking with their wallets and not their hearts.

No one but the people who spent money buying it non-refundable from Newegg and made it the best selling graphics card?

 

Are they not real human beings or something?

 

The card is priced so that Nvidia and their partners are not leaving value on the table to be taken by scalpers who did nothing to design or build the card.

[Sarra]

7 minutes ago, JimmyJJones said:

You bought a 4090 for $1100?!

 

Could you please link that scalper?  I want a 4090 for $1100 too.

Mmmm I should have been more clear.

 

I bought a scalper priced AMD card 2 years ago, and I spent less on that scalper priced card than a 4080 MSRP.

[ewitte]

On 12/6/2022 at 10:51 AM, JimmyJJones said:

Sold out is selling poorly?

Where is it selling out?  MC has them, I've seen stacks and stacks of them just sitting.  Just checked Newegg, Amazon and BestBuy.  The only one that says sold out is BestBuy.  Scalpers can't sell it and have been trying to return it, in response Newegg will not take them back.  For such a new card that is bad especially since they have only shipped about 25% what they have for 4090s.  Its selling worse in Europe where the prices are  inflated even more.

[MadPistol]

The 4080 was priced poorly to push people to old RTX 3000 stock. The high-end RTX 3000 stock is largely depleted now (Newegg is showing the RTX 3060 Ti as the highest-end RTX 30 card in stock), so I would expect Nvidia to make a price adjustment to realign their products, especially with the 7900 XT/X just around the corner.

This does not apply to the RTX 4090, though. It's a halo card, and as such, the price can be inflated compared to other lower GPUs and it will still sell.

[QuantumSingularity]

On 12/6/2022 at 5:39 AM, ImperialKnightErrant said:

This strategy was announced by Jensen way back in September.

https://hardforum.com/threads/nvidia-market-manipulation.2021800/

 

The 4080 is in fact doing EXACTLY what it was meant to do spectacularly, move RTX 3000 cards. And move them it has. Nvidia is laughing all the way to the bank at people buying RTX 3000 cards at 2 years old MSRPs. Once Nvidia clears out the 3000 stock, they can drop the price of the 4080 any time they like, and people will still lap it up. Any 4080 Nvidia sells at this point is a bonus, even if they sold ZERO 4080s, they would still be winning if people are buying RTX3000 cards.

 

The only way Nvidia would have failed is if people not buy any RTX 3000 nor 4000 cards.

 

Or am I the crazy one here?

First Nvidia isn't moving nearly as many GPUs as AMD do at the moment. The fact that all the high tier RTX 3000 series (RTX 3080s and 3090s) disappeared from the market in 2 days and appeared in the nvidia store doesn't mean they are selling it. Don;t be stupid - no one sells 1000+ 3080s at €1200 pricetag in 2 days.. Scalpers are the ones who still buy them in hope that with some otherwordly magic, crypto mining will be profitable again and they will sell them for a lot more. I asked the local dealer i work with how are the sales going on currently and they said AMD outsells Nvidia almost 10:1 and it makes sense. Only a complete team greed fanboy would buy a 3060 for more money than 6700/6750 XT, both of which are a whole tier above it. 3070 for €700 ??? U mad bro - the 6900 XT goes for 750 and kicks the snot out of the 3070. The 6950XT crushes the 3080, now even in RT scenarios. Here is the bait though - the only people currently buying any GPU are absolutely desperate people. We, who have a semi-descent GPU, still hold on to it and wait for the RDNA 3 to come out, cause if the initial leaked tests are to be believed, the whole RTX 4000 generation should cut prices by AT LEAST 30% and even more likely close to 40% to be competitive to RDNA 3. Yes Nvidia had that strategy of starving the market with undersupply, but what they failed to realize is how many GPUs they rushed into the hands of miners, who are now trying to get rid of them at all cost. It's now normal to see a 200-500 GPU miner rig being sold in pieces and not only as a wholesale. Certainly the new high electricity prices helped a lot too.