Is Moore's Law Dead? - School Survey

[ToXiiCxFusions]

Hello Everyone! 

 

I am taking a science course at my college and working on a long-standing project. I was tasked with making a research question, hypothesis, and poll regarding anything that interests you such as a topic, issue, or phenomenon that follows the scientific method. I chose my research topic to be Moore's Law with the rise of GenerativeAI and the massive resurgence in technological innovation. Below is a survey that will allow me to collect personal opinions based on various types of people from different backgrounds. 

 

Thank you for your responses!

 

https://forms.gle/9ZryFZzaReig3GHV7

 

PS: Happy wan show. I am watching live from FP as we speak.

[8tg]

It’s been dead since 2004. At this point I don’t know why anyone even references it.

[Alex Atkin UK]

26 minutes ago, 8tg said:

It’s been dead since 2004. At this point I don’t know why anyone even references it.

Because most people don't understand what it even is.

 

Are the number of transistors in an IC doubling every 2 years?  If yes, its still alive, if no then its dead.

 

Just Googling you see people saying "Moore's law has slowed down" which is a silly way to look at it.  The statement is either still true or is false.

[LAwLz]

12 hours ago, Alex Atkin UK said:

Are the number of transistors in an IC doubling every 2 years?  If yes, its still alive, if no then its dead.

 

Just Googling you see people saying "Moore's law has slowed down" which is a silly way to look at it.  The statement is either still true or is false.

It is more complex than that. While the statement "Have transistors count doubled" is something you can just answer yes or no to, the complexity comes from questions like "Which circuits are we comparing against each other?".

[da na]

Nothing has changed since the first Core i-series chips. Northbridge is still on the chipset, multicore/HT are still around, we're still on 64-bit... etc and it's been over a decade at this point. System architecture in general has changed very little, if at all, since then. 

Modern chipmaking isn't simply about putting more transistors on a chip - it's about balancing transistor count and power consumption. Take for example the era of horribly inefficient CPUs from 2004-2006, giving us 90-130w chips from both Intel and AMD featuring only two cores for their ludicrous wattage. 2 years later, Core 2 Duo achieves the same performance with 35 watts - and roughly the same transistor count. Why double the transistor count and make a 250 watt dual-core chip when you could instead make the transistors more efficient?

[Forbidden Wafer]

3 hours ago, LAwLz said:

It is more complex than that. While the statement "Have transistors count doubled" is something you can just answer yes or no to, the complexity comes from questions like "Which circuits are we comparing against each other?".

Yup. SRAM scaling is way different than logic scaling, IO scaling, DRAM, etc.
I'd say Moore's law is doing fine based on the figure below. For those that are not used to seeing log graphs, if something looks like a line, it is because it grows/decreases exponentially.

Source: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/351600540_Compact_Modeling_of_FinFET_and_FDSOI_FET_GIDL_Noise_RF_and_Negative_Capacitance_Effect?_tp=eyJjb250ZXh0Ijp7ImZpcnN0UGFnZSI6Il9kaXJlY3QiLCJwYWdlIjoiX2RpcmVjdCJ9fQ

[LogicalDrm]

@ToXiiCxFusions, this thread has been moved to Off Topic. We allow external surveys only in Off Topic.

[wanderingfool2]

Yes, no, maybe, I don't know....it depends

 

Honestly the answer to this is murky in that it all depends how one strictly defines Moores law and which way you want to apply it.

 

In terms of the processors, it's still a whole bunch of "it depends".  The transistor side of things have been reduced and we are still making strides in reducing the processes...but there very much is also a slowdown in that.  Where it gets tricky is that the compute power isn't doubling like it used to on the CPU market.  On the GPU market it kind of it, but it feels like a lot of it is just making bigger and more expensive silicon.  

[dogwitch]

more of chips now are half general computing and half asic hand offs.

like for a decoder etc.

its more somewhere in between now