Tesla CEO Elon Musk announces FSD subscription coming in 2021

[Dedayog]

On 12/20/2020 at 8:59 AM, AvMaverick said:

Summary

Amidst a series of random tweets from Tesla CEO Elon Musk on Sunday, he has confirmed that a Tesla Autopilot will subscription is on the calendar, sometime in Early 2021. This is one of the many things you could once buy moving to a subscription package now. This comes after he announced that FSD will be going up by $2K this monday.

 

 

 

 

Quotes

 

My thoughts

This is clearly happening, and there is no workaround. This is one influential step Tesla is taking that makes the vehicle industry more service-based rather than a one-time buy. @LinusTech's prediction on items that we buy soon becoming a service is happening. As a consumer, I feel this is against consumers and more in line for companies wanting to earn more and more, and I feel it's overall impact on consumer culture will be thoroughly negative. His prediction in the heated seat subscriptions stands right here, and as a 15-year old kid, this is scary for me to plan for financially... 

 

 

 

Sources

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-fsd-monthly-subscription-release-date-elon-musk/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ii7hhbJFpiM&t=2s

As a 15 year old kid, you may just have a few other more important things to plan for than heated seats, rofl

 

Stop pre-worrying.

[AvMaverick]

3 minutes ago, Dedayog said:

As a 15 year old kid, you may just have a few other more important things to plan for than heated seats, rofl

 

Stop pre-worrying.

Not cars. I feel this will extend to everything else too, from housing to other goods that you purchase today.

[wanderingfool2]

22 minutes ago, HarryNyquist said:

Don't give them an inch. Buying a tesla is easily 50,000+ USD. If that's not enough to cover their R&D for this feature, then the cars are priced too low.

 

It's very John Deere-y. The mile they take will be disabling your car if you put an non-OEM oil filter and non-OEM oil in your car at a non-OEM shop or on your own.

*Looks at website* *Sees starting price at around $35k USD (Even $30k depending on the incentives)*  Care to revise?

 

I think there's a reason why they are charging $10k+ for FSD...because it is a lot of R&D work and they do see a value in it.

 

1 hour ago, Master Delta Chief said:

What a terrible comparison. Music streaming and FSD are completely different kinds of things. One is a feature and another is basically a library with a bunch of songs and other stuff depending on the service. And to blame this on the consumer is just outright ignorant and quite frankly insulting almost. Certain things can be acceptable in subscription form, but there are limits to it that everyone should be able to understand. Things like that heated seats thing from BMW is just bullshit and unacceptable behavior of some greedy corp. 

FSD I think at the moment can be considered more than a feature though...there is still very active R&D going on with it.  Just look at Xiaopeng, they are suspected of stealing the autopilot source code but had to move to LiDAR afterwards because they weren't able to properly train the neural network and modify the source-code more to make improvements in it's driving.

[Dedayog]

15 minutes ago, AvMaverick said:

Not cars. I feel this will extend to everything else too, from housing to other goods that you purchase today.

Right, stop pre-worrying.

 

It won't, since those industries are pretty well set in how they work.  People have been touting pay-for-play for emergency services (fire, police, etc) and access to other things for decades, not going to happen.

 

Tesla is a company innovating on a small scale.  The rest of the world is doing just fine without him.

[jagdtigger]

1 hour ago, HarryNyquist said:

t's very John Deere-y. The mile they take will be disabling your car if you put an non-OEM oil filter and non-OEM oil in your car at a non-OEM shop or on your own.

Tesla already made ppl belive that EV's do not need regular fluid changes, its really sad how dumb most ppl are.....

[dalekphalm]

1 hour ago, jagdtigger said:

Tesla already made ppl belive that EV's do not need regular fluid changes, its really sad how dumb most ppl are.....

I mean... it's true?

 

Here's the maintenance schedule for a Model 3:

https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/support/car-maintenance

 

The car doesn't require traditional motor oil. Brake fluid only needs to be checked ever 2 years.

 

I guess, it requires washer fluid?

 

But if you're referring to something else, please be specific.

[jagdtigger]

17 minutes ago, dalekphalm said:

I mean... it's true?

Um no? Even if it lacks break fluid and motor oil it still has a transmission and possibly a differential. Both of these still need periodic oil change....

[dalekphalm]

3 minutes ago, jagdtigger said:

Um no? Even if it lacks break fluid and motor oil it still has a transmission and possibly a differential. Both of these still need periodic oil change....

Periodic the key phrase there. You said "regular fluid changes" - regular, being common sense to mean frequent and similar to an ICE powered vehicle.

 

Also, did you read the link I sent? Or my comment in general? Because:

1. Yes, it has brake fluid. I mentioned that in the reply you literally quoted. And it only needs checking every 2 years.

2. No. It doesn't have a transmission at all. Tesla's, along with almost every single EV (not all, but most), are single gear vehicles.

3. I have no idea how frequently a differential needs new oil - but I've owned my car for 6.5 years now and it hasn't needed new differential oil (and I follow the maintenance guide religiously) - I googled that, and in general, differential oil needs to be changed every 30,000 to 60,000 miles (roughly 50-100,000 km).

 

So yeah. No. What I said is still true. The only regular fluid change you need to worry about with a Tesla is the wiper fluid - and probably only in the Winter time (I rarely have to top of my wiper fluid in the summer).

 

All of the things you've mentioned require very occasional changes, after the span of multiple years.

 

So I ask again, is there some other fluid maybe you forgot about that requires actual regular changing?

[jagdtigger]

11 minutes ago, dalekphalm said:

And it only needs checking every 2 years.

Most manufactuers mandate a 3 year replacement period.... (most ppl replace it every 2 year, not that expensive and your live hangs on it so its not a bad idea)

 

11 minutes ago, dalekphalm said:

You said "regular fluid changes" - regular, being common sense to mean frequent and similar to an ICE powered vehicle.

For most ppl that means one oil change per year, which IMO is more in line with periodic rather than regular.

(Most car i serviced mandated 15000km/1year for the oil change, oh and better forget about the 30000km BS change period, its the worst thing you can do with your car)

[dalekphalm]

7 minutes ago, jagdtigger said:

Most manufactuers mandate a 3 year replacement period.... (most ppl replace it every 2 year, not that expensive and your live hangs on it so its not a bad idea)

 

For most ppl that means one oil change per year, which IMO is more in line with periodic rather than regular.

(Most car i serviced mandated 15000km/1year for the oil change, oh and better forget about the 30000km BS change period, its the worst thing you can do with your car)

I've never heard of a car that can go 30,000 km between oil changes. As for the 15,000 km interval, this is more common for newer cars with synthetic oil.

 

But yes, we've determined that people believing that their EV doesn't require regular fluid changes (and let's be clear, when people say this, 99% of them are talking about the Oil).

[wanderingfool2]

2 hours ago, jagdtigger said:

Tesla already made ppl belive that EV's do not need regular fluid changes, its really sad how dumb most ppl are.....

I've never really heard that to be honest...other than it doesn't require as much services vs a ICE vehicle (which is sort of true...see below).  You're welcome to dispute, but it really seems like you don't know as much about EV

 

4 minutes ago, jagdtigger said:

Most manufactuers mandate a 3 year replacement period.... (most ppl replace it every 2 year, not that expensive and your live hangs on it so its not a bad idea)

 

For most ppl that means one oil change per year, which IMO is more in line with periodic rather than regular.

(Most car i serviced mandated 15000km/1year for the oil change, oh and better forget about the 30000km BS change period, its the worst thing you can do with your car)

Tesla's don't require oil changes

They do recommend brake fluid checks every 2 years (not even a full replacement)

No transmission, so no transmission fluids

Actually, the only real regular stuff you have to do is pretty common stuff that one should expect  (cabin air filters, HEPA filters if you have it, tire rotation, A/C, winter care)...all of those things I've never heard anyone who thought an EV doesn't require those.

 

Once every 2 years is a far cry from e.g. Toyota's every 6 months on new vehicles oil changes + the standard bread fluid checks.

[jagdtigger]

5 minutes ago, dalekphalm said:

I've never heard of a car that can go 30,000 km between oil changes.

http://www.volkswagen.co.uk/assets/common/content/owners/Longlife_servicing.pdf

Quote

up to a maximum of 20,000* miles or 24 months

 

5 minutes ago, dalekphalm said:

But yes, we've determined that people believing that their EV doesn't require regular fluid changes

Yearly oil change is a bit far stretch to be considered regular but whatever.....  What i would call regular for example is when i have to refill the oil the engine had eaten.

[dalekphalm]

7 minutes ago, jagdtigger said:

http://www.volkswagen.co.uk/assets/common/content/owners/Longlife_servicing.pdf

Link doesn't work for me.

Quote

Yearly oil change is a bit far stretch to be considered regular but whatever..... 

Also whether or not it takes you a year to get through 15,000 km heavily depends on your driving habits. And in most cases, they usually have a km and time frame listing - so, for example, with Toyota, it's 16,000 km or  six months. So if you drive less than 16,000 km per year, you should still be getting two oil changes a year.

 

For my VW, it's every 15,000 km, which works out to about every 7-9 months.

Quote

What i would call regular for example is when i have to refill the oil the engine had eaten.

Okay, so now you're even saying that those people are right about EV's - they don't require regular fluid changes.

[jagdtigger]

4 minutes ago, wanderingfool2 said:

No transmission, so no transmission fluids

And this is where you are wrong:

Even if there is no actual gear shifting it still needs oil, and oil needs to be replaced periodically because it will get worn out and loose most of its lubrication properties. Everyone saying otherwise is an incompetent fool. Same goes for the differential.

[Velcade]

I could see myself buying a month of FSD for a family road trip but in my day-to-day life I don't need FSD.  EAP is more than enough.

 

I can see this service also benefiting those that lease vehicles.

 

NOTE: The option to buy FSD isn't going away.  yet

[jagdtigger]

5 minutes ago, dalekphalm said:

Okay, so now you're even saying that those people are right about EV's - they don't require regular fluid changes.

Yeah okay i mixed up the words (happens sometimes)... But the reality is that there are still fluids that need changing periodically, oils, cooling "water", break fluid, etc. I heard to many times ppl saying EV's dont need any.

 

6 minutes ago, dalekphalm said:

Link doesn't work for me.

Quote

LongLife Servicing and Castrol SLX Professional Powerflow Longlife III
How advanced engineering and oil has changed the way your Volkswagen is
serviced.
LongLife Service regimes
The LongLife Service regime is so called because there are no set service intervals
and, depending on how you drive your vehicle, and the conditions of use, a service
will be required anywhere between 9,000 miles or 12 months (whichever occurs first),
up to a maximum of 20,000* miles or 24 months (whichever occurs first).
This LongLife service regime has been made possible due to the development of new
Volkswagen engines with the latest technically advanced LongLife oil. These engines
use built-in sensors that continually monitor the oil quality, making it possible to enjoy
reliable and confident motoring for up to a maximum of 20,000* miles or 24 months
(whichever occurs first).
*Please consult your Volkswagen Retailer or repairer for full information.
It’s your choice
All new Volkswagen cars (except Fox) are now manufactured with the LongLife
Service regime activated and the engine filled with Castrol LongLife oil. However,
your car is also capable of being serviced at a more traditional time of 12 months or
10,000 miles (which ever occurs first), this regime is known as Time and Distance.
Your Retailer will explain both systems and can reset your car to the Time and
Distance regime at the Pre Delivery Inspection if you wish. Whichever regime you
choose, the vehicle dashboard service indicator will remind you when the service is
due. With the LongLife service regime it could be anywhere between 9,000 miles or
12 months up to a maximum of 20,000* miles or 24 months, depending on the way
the car is driven and/or its operating environment. The Time and Distance regime will
be around 10,000 miles or 12 months (which ever occurs first).

IDK why its not working, its just a pdf (screw geo restrictions i guess)

[dalekphalm]

3 minutes ago, jagdtigger said:

And this is where you are wrong:

Even if there is no actual gear shifting it still needs oil, and oil needs to be replaced periodically because it will get worn out and loose most of its lubrication properties. Everyone saying otherwise is an incompetent fool. Same goes for the differential.

That motor is likely designed to go long periods without replacing the lubricant. Yes, eventually it probably needs to be replaced, just like eventually I need to replace my transmission fluid in my car.

 

But anyway, he's not wrong - that's not a transmission.

 

AFAIK there's a sensor that'll tell you if you ever actually need to service the motor lubricant.

 

1 minute ago, jagdtigger said:

Yeah okay i mixed up the words (happens sometimes)... But the reality is that there are still fluids that need changing periodically, oils, cooling "water", break fluid, etc. I heard to many times ppl saying EV's dont need any.

I don't know anyone that says that - and definitely not any EV owner I know.

 

Most people will just follow the service guide, or they'll ignore all service (the same as with an ICE).  For major, non-regular, extremely rare servicings, like the motor lubricant, that's not really part of the regular schedule because it happens so infrequently and only as needed.

[jagdtigger]

2 minutes ago, dalekphalm said:

But anyway, he's not wrong - that's not a transmission.

I am not sure about that one but in the end it wont change the fact that it needs oil, and periodic replacement of said oil.

 

3 minutes ago, dalekphalm said:

I don't know anyone that says that - and definitely not any EV owner I know.

Even the guy in the video says it .

[StDragon]

"Feature lockout" is basically for the leasing market. Many of the luxury cars change hands that by having a vehicle built with common parts (economies of scale), it's more profitable to segment the market with feature enablement vs a physical barrier to the feature simple not being installed at all.

 

These companies are ran by accountants, not engineers.

[wanderingfool2]

11 minutes ago, jagdtigger said:

Even the guy in the video says it .

Context is key.  He say's "you don't need to do that", after mentioning transmission/oil changes.  Also, the oil shown in the video doesn't need to be replaced (unless something goes wrong).  I think Tesla was boasting about it being a million mile drive train.

 

When most none car people talk about maintenance they are usually talking about things such as oil changes/transmission.  There are so many people who don't even realize on regular vehicles you should switch out your break fluid.  It's not about Tesla convincing people that it's not needed...it's about people not having to go in for yearly/biyearly maintenance and being told they have to change their oil/transmission.

[jagdtigger]

4 minutes ago, wanderingfool2 said:

Also, the oil shown in the video doesn't need to be replaced

A common misconception. An oil that doesnt need replacement is the same BS as perpetuum mobile or free energy...... Its physics, oil will wear out and needs replcement, long before that metal work will wear out.

[wanderingfool2]

9 minutes ago, jagdtigger said:

A common misconception. An oil that doesnt need replacement is the same BS as perpetuum mobile or free energy...... Its physics, oil will wear out and needs replcement, long before that metal work will wear out.

I understand that oil wears out, but it's all about the timing and whether or not it's life outlives the components inside of it.  It's like me saying the grease inside Noctua fan's need replacing...when in reality you would just go and get a new fan.

 

Rather I should say, 12 years/150k miles (which is above the average lifespan of a vehicle).  So yea...I would consider that pretty much not needing to replace the oil.  At the 12 year mark, I wouldn't be surprised if you would be replacing out the motor module.  (Also, wouldn't be surprised if you could actually run it a lot longer without replacing the oil there).  So yea, the oil shown likely never needs to be replaced.

 

e.g. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HqBIOtNsYPalG51nAw_nubgskv4TQPGx8WhPZO4a_U8/edit#gid=0

A car with nearly 450k miles.  It didn't need that oil to be replaced...so yea I would say the oil shown in the video doesn't need to get replaced...because 450k on a vehicle is way beyond anything any reasonable person would expect.

 

To the topic though, what peaks my interest is if they can improve FSD to the point that legislators actually start forming laws to allow more AI control of the vehicle.

[dalekphalm]

44 minutes ago, jagdtigger said:

A common misconception. An oil that doesnt need replacement is the same BS as perpetuum mobile or free energy...... Its physics, oil will wear out and needs replcement, long before that metal work will wear out.

Yes but devices have expected life spans. Does the oil need to be changed before, say, the battery wears out? Most Model S/X's for example, still have a battery capacity of around ~90% after 200,000 miles (320,000 km). That's incredibly impressive.

Source:

https://insideevs.com/news/429818/tesla-model-s-x-battery-capacity-degradation/

They pull their data from official Tesla sources.

 

So, yes eventually you might need to replace that lubricant inside the sealed Motor, but would that be after the car has reached it's expected lifespan? If so, that's a fairly easy trade to make.

 

Nobody is saying that the lubricant will literally last forever, so let's not make that claim again. But if the lubricant lasts 20 years, does it really matter that it'll need to be replaced eventually? For all intents and purposes, the user will likely never have to deal with that problem.

[MadAnt250]

On 12/21/2020 at 1:35 AM, wanderingfool2 said:

"simple features"

Ha ha, I meant simple luxury features.

[Goldilock]

Not surprised at all. It's everything converge to certain singularity in tech world

 

Free > One Time Purchase > Subscription > Subscription + not-so-visible ad.