Nvidia is in Dire Straits According to Charlie Demerjian.

[BookerDeWitt]

 

Nvidia in the mean time canceled the minor update that was due out last quarter and surprisingly canceled the first big Maxwell set for next spring. This leaves them with nothing to compete against AMD with for the fall “back to school” market and the winter holiday season. The next minor blip will be in the spring as described in the link above, but that is not competition for AMD, it is Nvidia salvaging the scraps they have left. Dire is barely adequate to describe their competitive situation for 2013 and 1H/2014.

 

Development costs are spiraling and Nvidia added to their development costs by bifurcating their GPU architectures. This lead to an unsustainable cost structure, something visible in their reshuffling architectures for cost, not technical reasons. The path Nvidia has locked itself into is unsustainable and they are unquestionably aware of this, their reactive roadmap changes are short-term holding actions but fatal long-term.

 

Meanwhile AMD is doing the sane thing and keeping one architectural development path. Hawaii is the next step and it will go in to devices top to bottom, APUs included starting with Kaveri in Q4 or early Q1. Please note that unlike what some are saying, there are no delays to Kaveri, the roadmap hasn’t slipped at all since earlier this year when SemiAccurate last looked. To make things even easier for AMD they have synergies with all three game consoles so 100% of next generation game engine development is AMD architecture focused.

 

The situation seems desperate for Nvidia, they have no products available to compete with AMD in the upcoming 6 to 9 months & their development costs are rising due to bad policies. Their situation is even worsened by AMD's console wins & relentless executive execution.

We've been seeing big industry names jump ship and switch to AMD, people like Roy Taylor, Raja Koduri, Jim Keller & John Gustafson, the list goes on and on.

We've also seen some very desperate moves by Nvidia licensing its Kepler architecture after years and years of trying to penetrate the mobile industry and having very little success.

What happened to Nvidia ? share your thoughts.

Source

 

 

 

[Xelithium]

They will be just fine. No need to worry.

[Ultimate_PIMP]

Linus has always talked about how Nvidea and amd keep switching who's top dog about every generation.

Like one generation amd cards seem better than nvidea, and the next nvidea cards seem better than amd's.

 

I think that's what's happening here, but on a larger scale. 

 

It seems that everything fell in line perfectly for AMD. They strait up struck gold with these next gen consoles.

 

I'm straight excited about this.

 

EDIT:

 

Not saying that anything major will happen to nvidea, they will still be a strong competitor, but it looks like AMD will for sure be top dog this next generation.

 

At least for gpu's

[hiyayhi]

On the contrary, Linus talked about rumors that Nvidia and AMD were BOTH looking at changing their road maps because of the next gen console launches meaning that PC gaming is demanding more power with 4k and 3d being more and more easily available.

They were talking about rumors that both Nvidia and AMD would be releasing new products late this year.

[TechFan@ic]

Nvidia is doing good work it's just that AMD has been piling up great people with extraordinary talent recently, and CEO Rory Read has also been executing very efficiently, seems to me like AMD is gearing up for a whole new level of success , HSA reminds me a lot of the 64bit instruction set breakthrough by AMD almost a decade ago which makes me very excited for the future.

[Nicktrance]

Oh no what will they do! *tears out hair*

[MetroP]

Doesn't surprise me personally, I find the majority of Nvidia products to be very uncompetitive.

[Alex(PlayMedium)]

I think this is good for AMD. They haven't been doing very well with their CPUs lately, so having the clear upper hand with their GPUs for some time will earn them money that they can use to invest in their next CPUs. This might really be the chance AMD needed.

[That Norwegian Guy]

Meh. I'll buy the best card for my needs at any given time. Sensationalist conspiratorial comments don't affect me.

 

Though hyping AMD to have made console "wins"... Yeah have fun with that 0.02% profit margin.

[Xelithium]

Meh. I'll buy the best card for my needs at any given time. Sensationalist conspiratorial comments don't affect me.

 

Though hyping AMD to have made console "wins"... Yeah have fun with that 0.02% profit margin.

I don't think it's much about profit. But more about the optimization that comes with it.

[Kuzma]

Meh. I'll buy the best card for my needs at any given time. Sensationalist conspiratorial comments don't affect me.

 

Though hyping AMD to have made console "wins"... Yeah have fun with that 0.02% profit margin.

The combined sales of the xbone and ps4 are going to be insanely high :/ I know that plenty of adults are excited for this console

[YellowDragon]

I don't think it's much about profit. But more about the optimization that comes with it.

ever since AMD redefined what a CPU core should look like this has been exactly what they were hoping for, Modules in comparison to the old phenom cores are drastically different and the Module is a farcry from all other chip core designs, its new to the block and software has just begun to tap its potential. Software is always a generation behind the tech, its just how it works unfortunately and even developers have to get a hang of the ropes to utilize new stuff properly. 

 

I think they chose the right direction with a more parallel architecture over straight IPC like intel. I feel that IPC improvements is starting to experience diminishing returns in performance (approaching the limit of silicon) take a look at the difference between Sandy and Haswell, Its around 10-20% better and that was through an entire change in architecture, the thing is CPUs really have not moved much since 2011 with a barley perceptible increase in performance ( also kinda why PC sales are in the decline) Enthusiasts are the only ones that get excited over new processor launchs and run out to buy the new stuff, how many soccer moms do you know say "gee i need a new Haswell processor so I can browse Facebook that much faster (see Professional Macbook Pro Facebook User).

 

Now imagine if all the benchmarks graphs looked like Crysis 3 graphs, I have a feeling that most will quickly be changing their tune from Intel to AMD, I really hope that happens as my one gripe with AMD motherboards is they lack the features and overall glamour of the Intel ones. I want my fancy onboard audio, 100 different color schemes and all the cool features as well D:

[Samdb]

AMD have been getting much better recently, however they aren't "all over" NVidia.

[TechFan@ic]

ever since AMD redefined what a CPU core should look like this has been exactly what they were hoping for, Modules in comparison to the old phenom cores are drastically different and the Module is a farcry from all other chip core designs, its new to the block and software has just begun to tap its potential. Software is always a generation behind the tech, its just how it works unfortunately and even developers have to get a hang of the ropes to utilize new stuff properly. 

 

I think they chose the right direction with a more parallel architecture over straight IPC like intel. I feel that IPC improvements is starting to experience diminishing returns in performance (approaching the limit of silicon) take a look at the difference between Sandy and Haswell, Its around 10-20% better and that was through an entire change in architecture, the thing is CPUs really have not moved much since 2011 with a barley perceptible increase in performance ( also kinda why PC sales are in the decline) Enthusiasts are the only ones that get excited over new processor launchs and run out to buy the new stuff, how many soccer moms do you know say "gee i need a new Haswell processor so I can browse Facebook that much faster (see Professional Macbook Pro Facebook User).

 

Now imagine if all the benchmarks graphs looked like Crysis 3 graphs, I have a feeling that most will quickly be changing their tune from Intel to AMD, I really hope that happens as my one gripe with AMD motherboards is they lack the features and overall glamour of the Intel ones. I want my fancy onboard audio, 100 different color schemes and all the cool features as well D:

What a wonderful read, thanks for commenting.

[TERAFLOP]

It really does not look pretty for Nvidia, funny how roles reverse so very quickly.

[BookerDeWitt]

It really does not look pretty for Nvidia, funny how roles reverse so very quickly.

So true, it was just a few months ago that some people were shouting "AMD is sinking, jump ship !" now we're hearing people shouting "Nvidia is sinking, jump ship!"

[kuddlesworth9419]

"Too many cooks spoil the broth", AMD is collecting up so much talent that it seems good but that saying is all I can think of when hearing this. 

[Inkz]

But Nvidia has a much larger share of the market in GPUs. It does not seem like they will crash, even without a console.

[Goldilock]

Uuuuuuhm, Charli is actually kinda biased against intel and Nvidia look at his other articles, so, i am not surprised. But his prediction somehow got right recently like delayed Kaveri (confirmed) which he has predicted since 2012.  

[Kuzma]

"Too many cooks spoil the broth", AMD is collecting up so much talent that it seems good but that saying is all I can think of when hearing this. 

"Many hands make light work" ;) old phrases often contradict themselves