When will bitcoin die?

[MitchG_]

yay, another bitcoin post amirite!

Well anyways. I was considering upgrading to a 1080ti or even 1080tis in SLI when a friend told me that i should wait for bitcoin to die, he estimated that 1080ti's would drop price by atleast $600, which tbh i find obscene. When do you guys reckon bitcoin will drop and in affect how much do you reckon card prices will drop? Im considering waiting as I'm not in a rush but many people reckon it wont be for another year that bitcoin will die, also raising the question if it doesn't die anytime soon, when Nvidia or AMD releases a new generation of card, will miners sell their old cards or keep them?

[Suika]

People are estimating bitcoin will exist for quite awhile, and while I don't believe this one in particular, one estimate said the bubble may take 100 years to pop.

 

Mining, however, we're not sure how much longer it will remain viable. I think if manufacturers flood the market with GPUs, profitability might lower, but board partners seem reluctant to do that at this moment in time.

[MitchG_]

5 minutes ago, Suika said:

Mining, however, we're not sure how much longer it will remain viable. I think if manufacturers flood the market with GPUs, profitability might lower, but board partners seem reluctant to do that at this moment in time.

Yeah, I've heard that most manufacturers don't want to have any 'anti-miner' schemes because its just too good for business 

[zombienerd]

Bitcoin is not the problem for GPU's.  GPU mining hasn't been viable for BTC since 2012 or so.

 

The "Altcoins" are.  These are other cryptocurrencies (such as Ethereum, Monero, etc).  These coins are easier to mine, and still within range of GPU miners.  There are new cryptos released every month that people jump on hoping they'll be the next one to spike. 

 

Until the entire crypto craze dies off (which may not ever happen), expect the laws of supply and demand to continue to do their thing, and for prices to fluctuate wildly as stock varies.

[Energycore]

6 minutes ago, MitchG_ said:

yay, another bitcoin post amirite!

Well anyways. I was considering upgrading to a 1080ti or even 1080tis in SLI when a friend told me that i should wait for bitcoin to die, he estimated that 1080ti's would drop price by atleast $600, which tbh i find obscene. When do you guys reckon bitcoin will drop and in affect how much do you reckon card prices will drop? Im considering waiting as I'm not in a rush but many people reckon it wont be for another year that bitcoin will die, also raising the question if it doesn't die anytime soon, when Nvidia or AMD releases a new generation of card, will miners sell their old cards or keep them?

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will not die in the span of time that a 1080 Ti is current-gen. Unless something unexpected happens.

 

There is no evidence pointing to it being doomed, some bad news may tank its price but the idea of blockchain will stay and with it mining.

 

The best we can hope for is that silicon fabs, which are probably hitting record high sales numbers as we speak, double down on production to meet the demand of miners and gamers.

3 minutes ago, Suika said:

Mining, however, we're not sure how much longer it will remain viable. I think if manufacturers flood the market with GPUs, profitability might lower, but board partners seem reluctant to do that at this moment in time.

The problem is that even as the big coins shy away from GPU mining - Litecoin, Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash by changing to ASIC, Ethereum by doing away with mining altogether -, there are still other, smaller coins that have a real value (albeit much lower market cap) and will still be minable. There's Monero, zCash, Pascal, Decred and others. Mining doesn't have to die for us to get reasonable prices on GPUs again, it just has to stop being so stupidly profitable. If miners find themselves unable to ROI cards in 2-3 months, they'll think twice about paying twice the retail price.

[Tech_Dreamer]

i think it'sd solid, will be outlawed by most countries soon & it'll be solely between traders trust value, it has shown potential , so it'll still be there as long as there's illicit trades going on , technically better anonymous money laundering service compared to government controlled currency. for that sole reason it'll be here for years to come.

[Damascus]

Bitcoin won't die but gpu mining will.

 

About 4 months ago etherium became impossible to mine with a 4gb graphics cards and there was a temporary (and massive) surplus of rx 470/570/480/580 4gb models from miners.

 

When 8gb isn't enough for the majority of altcoins any more every rx 580, gtx 1070, 1080, Vega 56/64 will be dumped onto the used market

 

Soon after that 1080 ti's with 11gb will follow suit.

 

 

I foresee 1 of 2 things causing such a spike in difficulty

1. Specialized Ascic miners will roll out for the popular altcoins
2. Next gen nvidia chips will come out with massive bumps in both efficiency and raw power

[keskparane]

At some point I wish people would ask where the money comes from. All those people who get rich off bitcoin have to do it at the expense of others.

[Damascus]

2 minutes ago, keskparane said:

At some point I wish people would ask where the money comes from. All those people who get rich off bitcoin have to do it at the expense of others.

What do you mean by that my dude? 

[Bananasplit_00]

Bitcoin is unlikely to die, nor is GPU mining for quite a while

[Suika]

23 minutes ago, MitchG_ said:

Yeah, I've heard that most manufacturers don't want to have any 'anti-miner' schemes because its just too good for business 

I've heard otherwise. Graphics cards have a relatively low margin, board partners would rather attempt to upsell you peripherals at higher margins and make you a loyal customer, as opposed to miners who don't buy peripherals (not to the same extent as gamers) and aren't loyal to board partners at all.

[keskparane]

7 minutes ago, Damascus said:

What do you mean by that my dude? 

Lets say I pick up a stick and sell it to you for $10

Then you sell that stick for $20

We both make $10.

Either the chain mindlessly continues and you keep saying its worth more, or the price goes down. When the price goes down the people who currently have the stick lose money.

[Damascus]

22 minutes ago, keskparane said:

Lets say I pick up a stick and sell it to you for $10

Then you sell that stick for $20

We both make $10.

Either the chain mindlessly continues and you keep saying its worth more, or the price goes down. When the price goes down the people who currently have the stick lose money.

Well sure, but no-one is getting shafted neccessarily.  If you want to transfer btc you pay the fee, and btc pays the miner.  This is a transaction in which every party gets what they wanted.

[keskparane]

23 minutes ago, Damascus said:

Well sure, but no-one is getting shafted neccessarily.  If you want to transfer btc you pay the fee, and btc pays the miner.  This is a transaction in which every party gets what they wanted.

I disagree. At the end of it all many people will have lost a lot of money.

 

If that is not the case, if it really is free money, then why are we wasting resources building machines to mine, and wasting power mining, when we could just hand it out evenly.

[MitchG_]

11 minutes ago, keskparane said:

I disagree. At the end of it all many people will have lost a lot of money.

 

If that is not the case, if it really is free money, then why are we wasting resources building machines to mine, and wasting power mining, when we could just hand it out evenly.

hand it out evenly... that rings a bell

[keskparane]

8 minutes ago, MitchG_ said:

hand it out evenly... that rings a bell

hand it out disproportionately.... that describes the present

[Damascus]

31 minutes ago, keskparane said:

I disagree. At the end of it all many people will have lost a lot of money.

 

If that is not the case, if it really is free money, then why are we wasting resources building machines to mine, and wasting power mining, when we could just hand it out evenly.

I didn't say anyone was getting anything for free.

 

1. "Buyer" transfers bitcoin, requiring a blockchain computation by it's nature
2. Bitcoin (company) charges buyer transfer fee to cover the cost of computation 
3. Miner, who covered the blockchain compute to transfer the bitcoin takes a cut of transfer fee

[keskparane]

12 minutes ago, Damascus said:

I didn't say anyone was getting anything for free.

 

1. "Buyer" transfers bitcoin, requiring a blockchain computation by it's nature
2. Bitcoin (company) charges buyer transfer fee to cover the cost of computation 
3. Miner, who covered the blockchain compute to transfer the bitcoin takes a cut of transfer fee

Well I must say I didn't realize that miners got paid on a per transaction basis, and there there was a guaranteed return for your computing power.

[Damascus]

3 minutes ago, keskparane said:

Well I must say I didn't realize that miners got paid on a per transaction basis, and there there was a guaranteed return for your computing power.

No, miners are being paid in Bitcoin (very, very slowly) to always run the hardware so that when a transaction does go through there are thousands of poinra of decoding hardware available immediately so that the system works

[porina]

1 hour ago, Damascus said:

About 4 months ago etherium became impossible to mine with a 4gb graphics cards and there was a temporary (and massive) surplus of rx 470/570/480/580 4gb models from miners.

Dunno if we're in the same universe but I didn't notice that happening. The ethereum limit that was crossed some time last year was 2GB. I am currently running it on a 1060 3GB, although not for much longer as it is about to pass the 3GB limit. One website that keeps track of the DAG size predicts 3GB will be crossed around end of April. The planned without a date change from PoW to PoS might kill it for the masses before 4GB limit is reached, predicted at Feb. 2021.

[Damascus]

Just now, porina said:

Dunno if we're in the same universe but I didn't notice that happening. The ethereum limit that was crossed some time last year was 2GB. I am currently running it on a 1060 3GB, although not for much longer as it is about to pass the 3GB limit. One website that keeps track of the DAG size predicts 3GB will be crossed around end of April. The planned without a date change from PoW to PoS might kill it for the masses before 4GB limit is reached, predicted at Feb. 2021.

Weird, maybe it wasn't ETH then.  There were, no joke, 200 sub 4gb modern gpus on the used market for about 2 weeks - all clearly from mining rigs.

[porina]

1 minute ago, Damascus said:

Weird, maybe it wasn't ETH then.  There were, no joke, 200 sub 4gb modern gpus on the used market for about 2 weeks - all clearly from mining rigs.

From that description, maybe it was just a single miner deciding to get out of the game, and not some other trigger. 200 cards isn't that many, certainly not a sign of miners in general going into panic sell.

 

8 minutes ago, Damascus said:

No, miners are being paid in Bitcoin (very, very slowly) to always run the hardware so that when a transaction does go through there are thousands of poinra of decoding hardware available immediately so that the system works

Depends on the coin, service, and how you mine it. Nicehash is an example of a service where you mine various coins, but get paid only in bitcoin for now. In general, if you mine a coin directly, you get that coin as payment. Small miners would mine as part of a pool, which smooths out payments. You get paid for useful work you do, so it isn't something you can connect to and fake just being there. If a small miner were to go solo, in theory they should get a similar income over a long enough time period, however it could be many months with not much income at all, with the occasional jackpot. 

[keskparane]

25 minutes ago, Damascus said:

No, miners are being paid in Bitcoin (very, very slowly) to always run the hardware so that when a transaction does go through there are thousands of poinra of decoding hardware available immediately so that the system works

So they are paid on a fixed rate for their compute power or not?

 

If they are not processing a transaction then what are their cards working so hard on doing?

[Damascus]

4 minutes ago, porina said:

From that description, maybe it was just a single miner deciding to get out of the game, and not some other trigger. 200 cards isn't that many, certainly not a sign of miners in general going into panic sell.

I would agree with that other than 2 things

1. He would competing against himself, hard.  It was as low as 200 cad per gpu for a while, it seems insane to price yourself down with multiple accounts
2. As mentioned above, there were many sellers competing, not just one

[cluelessgenius]

interesting question there. if new cards do come out and it turns out they are slightly better at mining crypto than the current gen would miners jump on it and take another ROI period instead of staying with their payed off hardware. i guess it depends on how much better they are but i imagine if you just build your farm or even when or especially when your ROI time is over would it not be more profitable too stay with the hardware you got? and assuming bitcin mining is here to stay is that gonna mean well have the market flooded with last gen cards on the cheap every time they bring out something with better hash rate.

 

mann i wish this nonesence would stop. i still havent even fully understood how you can "calculate" a currency like what are these claculations. i dont get it and im not sure i want to jump into deep enough to understand it. just someone please make cards for them like special mining cards or like these asic things and leave the gaming market alone

 

slightly over dramatised metaphor:

as a gamer it feels like they found out air is sellable if you fill it in bottles and now they are bottling up all the air and the whole gaming community is left gasping