AMD says that their Ryzen CPU's will last 4 years.

[MrDynamicMan]

3 hours ago, wrathoftheturkey said:

Competitive here meaning either "better than the other guy" or "better than the other guy for the price"

If 'the other guy' is you Intel fails on both accounts

[AresKrieger]

15 hours ago, Humbug said:

snip

 

 

The problem is that the last time they keep "improving their current design" they fell behind intel by 5 years, its not as if they'll be the top cpus on the market so they can't coast on performance

[AresKrieger]

4 minutes ago, MrDynamicMan said:

If 'the other guy' is you Intel fails on both accounts

On the second part they may fail but the Ryzen chips will not be stronger than intels similar models from their own info

[MrDynamicMan]

11 minutes ago, AresKrieger said:

On the second part they may fail but the Ryzen chips will not be stronger than intels similar models from their own info

My point was that Intel CPUs have stagnated to a point where upgrading from my 2012 chip to a current one would yield almost no performance benefits. 

[AresKrieger]

16 minutes ago, MrDynamicMan said:

My point was that Intel CPUs have stagnated to a point where upgrading from my 2012 chip to a current one would yield almost no performance benefits. 

Yes and upgrading to Ryzen will provide similar lack of benefits, it is quite clear the consumer CPU market isn't as strong as people seem to think otherwise intel wouldn't be trying to move on to other industries so heavily

[Humbug]

21 minutes ago, AresKrieger said:

The problem is that the last time they keep "improving their current design" they fell behind intel by 5 years, its not as if they'll be the top cpus on the market so they can't coast on performance

last time all their CPUs were based on bulldozer, which was a turd. They did improve it but were too far behind intel. Bulldozer was released in the same year that intel released sandy bridge which was a revolutionary improvement for them.  AMD got so far behind that on the high end they only put out one more revision of fx cores, namely piledriver fx-8350 etc.  piledriver was actually a very solid improvement on bulldozer but with that AMD stopped trying. We never got fx steamroller or fx excavator possibly because AMD thought they are too far behind to justify the development cost. Even so if they had kept improving annually the way you they did from bulldozer to piledriver they would have been in a much better position. Maybe there are technical reasons why they couldn't on the high end.

 

this time however if the leaks and released info is true AMD's starting point with Ryzen is much more competitive and closer to intel. Therefore a 10-15% annual ipc increase for zen+ and so on will be very good when you consider the rate at which intel is improving.

[YedZed]

Used i5 3470's can still be still be recommended, and those are from 2012.

[AresKrieger]

8 minutes ago, Humbug said:

Therefore a 10-15% annual ipc increase for zen+

They may be able to do that once or twice but annually for 4 years without changing the design, extremely doubtful especially given the fact the design is in silicon.

[HughMungusCynicalAnarch]

On 1/7/2017 at 0:33 PM, ♠FlamieMeister♠ said:

According to AMD's Mark Papermaster at CES 2017, he confirmed that the new Ryzen CPUs will last 4 years before you'll need to upgrade to a newer processor. According to Jim Anderson, the chips will be available from day 1, and they will NOT have another "paper launch." They plan to not have any chances, and want to have an explosive launch.

 

According to the PC World website,

 

 

My opinion on this is that this could be one of the most anticipated launches of a cpu in Tech history, and definitely the most hyped up launch for 2017. If their claims that the CPU will have a 4 year lifespan, then this could secure AMD a wider audience who want to not spend money every refresh or launch and keep their current one.

 

Link: http://www.pcworld.com/article/3155129/components-processors/amd-says-its-zen-cpu-architecture-is-expected-to-last-four-years.html

Maybe they meant that it will literally just last 4 years.

[VerticalDiscussions]

Its been almost 4 years and my I5-4670 is screaming to be buried (well, it working well but, technology evolves and frankly..... i dunno). I want to give it a decent funeral, but right now there are some things over it :/. RIP processor, wanna attach it to a keychain like i saw once ^^.

 

Edit: Theres no reason to upgrade, but.... but...  (you know a H110I GT doesnt work well with a locked processor, .-.)

[Drak3]

26 minutes ago, VerticalDiscussions said:

Theres no reason to upgrade

There is if you need the exclusive features of the newer chips, kupo.

Or if you have a good deal of money, so why not, kupo.

[mariushm]

On 1/7/2017 at 7:54 PM, Darth Revan said:

Basically what I'm saying is that AMD hasn't thought about the future.

Ryzen will be great. But they don't have anything after it. To fight against Intel.

And that's where the problem arises.

AMD is hoping that they'll make something better 4 years from now. But they won't.

And unfortunately the Intel monopoly will continue. Well at least it won't continue this year, hopefully.

 

 

 

Yeah they have.  They plan to have Zen+ on 10nm when the technology is ready.  My guess is they won't be ready with a new process in 4 years... but they can keep using the 14nm process for more than 4 years. Older processes will still be used for things that don't need (or don't benefit) from smaller very expensive processes, think chipsets, audio and network chips (most of them are made at 28nm or higher processes because smaller processes are too expensive)

 

Then they'd have another Zen version when they get the 7nm IBM was developing working with reasonable failure rates.

 

It's tiny steps... have a look at Vega and the memory controller it has... Now they have Vega with multiple HBM2 stacks working and they're paving the way to more exotic memories with the integrated cache/controller... I know they plan to make a worstation/server Zen processor that would be something like  2 Zen dies (2 x 8 core / 16 threads) + vega light core + ? x hbm2 stacks) on organic substrate (as a system-on-chip sort of thing)

 

It's going slow because from what I heard there's a lot of problems with vertical stacking of memory dies on HBM memory due to memory heating at different levels and micron level solder between dies expanding on shrinking with temperature and so on... it's hard. And even if they get the memory stacks right, it's difficult to keep cpu dies and gpu die and the dies at same temperature (because they have different heights)

 

We might see Zen+ or some future version which would take advantage of the other thing AMD promotes which is HSA , where the HBM2 memory of the video card will be unified with the cpu memory, so it would appear as Level 3 or Level 4 cpu cache or actual memory.. there's lots of room for improvement.

 

Usually there's a few years required to build a production line on a new process, then you have the inevitable half a year to a year of fine tuning... you make chips, wait a couple of months, spend a month or two testing the chips cut from test wafers and tweak the design to work with new process' particularities and with info about what would be improved in the process line in the next months and then do another test chip and so on...  

Global Foundries is known for delays, every process they moved to was delayed by years or at least a few months and there was a long time until they tweaked the manufacturing process to reduce the number of errors per squared cm (if it costs $20k per wafer and you get only a few functional chips out of it you're losing money)

[Kamina]

AMD needs to start making money again, so I don't blame them.

They'll focus on lower end stuff and mobile. 

[Thony]

I hope they dont mean "we are not releasing any new CPUs until 2021" because Intel can just release a better CPU tomorrow if they wanted to (well I hope they can despite sittting on their ass doing nothing for the past 4 years...)

[VerticalDiscussions]

13 hours ago, Drak3 said:

-snip-

First sentence is definetly true.

Second sentence doesnt suit me :D. My mom doesnt even wants me to waste too much time showering and i just tell her off. Then again, you dont need 20 minutes to make a full body cleaning session lmfao!

[LeChef]

On 8-1-2017 at 0:06 PM, samuel said:

This is consumer friendly IMO. I can keep my FX8320 for another 4 years and then just upgrade everything.

and then finally move away from the old potato?

[Tech_Dreamer]

Hey i had my sempron working for me for 4 years , so...whats the big deal?

[Humbug]

12 hours ago, Kamina said:

AMD needs to start making money again, so I don't blame them.

They'll focus on lower end stuff and mobile. 

 

5 hours ago, Thony said:

I hope they dont mean "we are not releasing any new CPUs until 2021" because Intel can just release a better CPU tomorrow if they wanted to (well I hope they can despite sittting on their ass doing nothing for the past 4 years...)

 

1 hour ago, Tech_Dreamer said:

Hey i had my sempron working for me for 4 years , so...whats the big deal?

[Yamoto42]

Am I the only person who remembers Intel announcing they are retiring the core line in 2019?

I doubt I'm the only person who remembers Tim Keller left over a year ago.

As much as I would like my next PC to be red instead of blue and green, I'm interested to know exactly what AMD means by "lasting" 4 years...

[mariushm]

1 minute ago, Yamoto42 said:

As much as I would like my next PC to be red instead of blue and green, I'm interested to know exactly what AMD means by "lasting" 4 years...

It probably means they think it's going to take 4 years for the manufacturing process they plan to use for Zen+ (10nm) will be ready and capable of producing processors with low enough failure rates.

Hopefully that one is still going to be on socket AM4 and you won't require different motherboards with newer chipsets, AMD has a good history with sockets and backwards compatibility.

After that, we're probably going to see crosspoint memory and hyper cube memory and HBM instead of DDRxx so such major change will require new sockets

 

So overall I think it's going to be fairly safe for around 6-8 years at the very least.

[Liltrekkie]

I've read all three pages and all I can say is wow. 

 

I firmly do not believe that AMD will just put a single zen processor on the table for 4 years straight. I believe they will take an approach similar to what Intel is doing now, Tick tock tock. Or tick tock refresh is what it is. 

 

Zen is their new node and architecture, and every year we will see improvements on Zen, similar what Intel does. See Skylake to Kabylake to Coffeelake. Zen being skylake, the start of the family. Kabylake and coffeelake being the improvements. whether it be clock speeds, minor IPC bumps and power consumption or newer technologies added. Then you have cannonlake, which is skylake but on 10nm in a nutshell. Which could end up being zen+. 

 

Year 1, skylake /=/ Zen

Year 2 kabylake /=/ Zen improvements

Year 3 cofeelake /=/ more zen improvements??

Year 4 cannonlake /=/ Zen+ ????

 

With that said I don't expect AMD to run a generation behind in terms of IPC or anything. This is just my example based Intel's tick tock tock roadmap, using their current generation of 14nm process and moving to 10nm. 

 

Now I very well could be wrong, and zen+ could jump to an icelake type situation but I believe AMD might die shrink zen to improve the node then switch to zen+ when the process is more mature. From what I seen it is better to mature a new node through an existing known good/mature architecture than switch to a new node and architecture at the same time.  

[samuel]

6 hours ago, RikvE said:

and then finally move away from the old potato?

haha yeah, doing some premiere pro just fine with it, on the cheap too!

[captain cactus]

1 hour ago, Liltrekkie said:

I've read all three pages and all I can say is wow. 

 

I firmly do not believe that AMD will just put a single zen processor on the table for 4 years straight. I believe they will take an approach similar to what Intel is doing now, Tick tock tock. Or tick tock refresh is what it is. 

 

Zen is their new node and architecture, and every year we will see improvements on Zen, similar what Intel does. See Skylake to Kabylake to Coffeelake. Zen being skylake, the start of the family. Kabylake and coffeelake being the improvements. whether it be clock speeds, minor IPC bumps and power consumption or newer technologies added. Then you have cannonlake, which is skylake but on 10nm in a nutshell. Which could end up being zen+. 

 

Year 1, skylake /=/ Zen

Year 2 kabylake /=/ Zen improvements

Year 3 cofeelake /=/ more zen improvements??

Year 4 cannonlake /=/ Zen+ ????

 

With that said I don't expect AMD to run a generation behind in terms of IPC or anything. This is just my example based Intel's tick tock tock roadmap, using their current generation of 14nm process and moving to 10nm. 

 

Now I very well could be wrong, and zen+ could jump to an icelake type situation but I believe AMD might die shrink zen to improve the node then switch to zen+ when the process is more mature. From what I seen it is better to mature a new node through an existing known good/mature architecture than switch to a new node and architecture at the same time.  

AMD stated in that same article they're doing a Tick-tock-tock cycle. Zen+ is next on the table after Ryzen according to AMD's own slides. So we'll have Ryzen, Zen+ (possibly on 7 nm if GloFlo's fabs reach 7nm in time), Zen+ improvements, more Zen+ improvements and then a new architecture.

[Liltrekkie]

1 minute ago, lots of unexplainable lag said:

AMD stated in that same article they're doing a Tick-tock-tock cycle. Zen+ is next on the table after Ryzen according to AMD's own slides. So we'll have Ryzen, Zen+ (possibly on 7 nm if GloFlo's fabs reach 7nm in time), Zen+ improvements, more Zen+ improvements and then a new architecture.

 

Ah I didn't see were they said that. I figured they would do something like that. Glad I wasn't wrong on that front.

[Misanthrope]

12 minutes ago, lots of unexplainable lag said:

AMD stated in that same article they're doing a Tick-tock-tock cycle. Zen+ is next on the table after Ryzen according to AMD's own slides. So we'll have Ryzen, Zen+ (possibly on 7 nm if GloFlo's fabs reach 7nm in time), Zen+ improvements, more Zen+ improvements and then a new architecture.

Wait...isn't that tick-tock-tock-tock though? 3 separate improvements (Zen+, Zen + improvements and more Zen+ improvements)

 

Anyways I guess is better than their current tick-tock-tock-tock-tock-tock-tock-tock-tock-tock-tock cycle.