Place Your Bets

[byalexandr]

I noticed that too. That little fan speed issue scared me, but performance wise, they've really done a 180. We have quite a few DX12 titles lined up for 2016, which is what i am hoping we can see benched by the time Pascal and Polaris comes out. After all, it will be the API everyone is flocking to, given what it has promised.

 

That will be the big decider too, as it levels the playing field. As an ITX man, i mostly want the card with the most performance per watt, so whenever that card hits the market, it will be mine.

Yes!

 

You'd think I have an R9 Nano or something in my tiny ass SG05... Nope, a reference 290. But the drivers... The 290 used to barely keep up with the 780 now it shits on it and competes with a 970! Even the Fury X is now just a good or better than a reference 980 Ti.

[byalexandr]

Ah, I see... I think theres something in the CoC against clickbait if you really wanna go there... >.>

shhhhh

 

We're just having fun...

[App4that]

You did not read the post. He said to place your bets on when you think they will arrive.

Also, I think the two will be a lot closer than what you believe they will be. DX12 should (god, i hope so) be around in a few titles by then. AMD has always played the hardware game seriously, they just fell behind in software. AMD keeping up their hardware trends is a sure bet. Nvidia is the wild card here. They are the ones that have been flip-flopping on raw hardware performance and software optimization, and cutting hardware for the sake of efficiency. Whether or not Nvidia's superior drivers will impact anything when DX12 becomes the norm has yet to be seen.

Anywho, back at OPs question: I hope around Q2 of 2016 for both of them. That is when i plan on replacing my GTX 770, and I need something to be out by then.

No, it was spot on. I'm a Vegas boy, local as we call ourselves. Bit of a big shindig going on at the moment and AMD brought Polaris out to show off. It's all about efficiency, which is good don't get me wrong as it will help with heat and battery life. But it's not showing any improvement outside of that. And they have a launch date of q2. So I don't need to bet, they already said when it's being released.

And it will be curb stomped. While it's great AMD is trying to get serious with the mobile market, that's not going to happen without an increase in performance.

They had it playing Battlefront.

[alphaproject]

Sept 2016.

[MageTank]

Yes!

 

You'd think I have an R9 Nano or something in my tiny ass SG05... Nope, a reference 290. But the drivers... The 290 used to barely keep up with the 780 now it shits on it and competes with a 970! Even the Fury X is now just a good or better than a reference 980 Ti.

I am working on a sub 4L case, and it will be able to support 11 inch GPU's at most. Can currently support a GTX 980 Ti (reference) and i have my overclocked 6600T waiting to go in it. Working on getting a PSU capable of fitting in it, and driving the hardware. As long as the new Pascal/Polaris GPU's are under 11 inches, and capable of working on a 500w PSU, i should be able to use one just fine. With their "2x performance per watt" promise, i am hoping they mean twice the performance on the same power consumption, or 50% more performance for 50% less power. Either way, it will work, as long as the cards don't need more than 275w from a single 12V rail.

[byalexandr]

No, it was spot on. I'm a Vegas boy, local as we call ourselves. Bit of a big shindig going on at the moment and AMD brought Polaris out to show off. It's all about efficiency, which is good don't get me wrong as it will help with heat and battery life. But it's not showing any improvement outside of that. And they have a launch date of q2. So I don't need to bet, they already said when it's being released.

And it will be curb stomped. While it's great AMD is trying to get serious with the mobile market, that's not going to happen without an increase in performance.

They had it playing Battlefront.

Oh come on, that's just because they were using lower tier cards. Of course they're not going to play more demanding games, how is it going to show the power if it can't run smoothly. They were just making the point that the same or better performance was had with a Polaris card and a GTX 950, but the Polaris card consumed half the power. So there's a lot of potential, I wouldn't mind if AMD made a Polaris card that consumed 300W like my 290, but if it had the same performance to power ratio, it would eat Nvidia cards alive.

[byalexandr]

I am working on a sub 4L case, and it will be able to support 11 inch GPU's at most. Can currently support a GTX 980 Ti (reference) and i have my overclocked 6600T waiting to go in it. Working on getting a PSU capable of fitting in it, and driving the hardware. As long as the new Pascal/Polaris GPU's are under 11 inches, and capable of working on a 500w PSU, i should be able to use one just fine. With their "2x performance per watt" promise, i am hoping they mean twice the performance on the same power consumption, or 50% more performance for 50% less power. Either way, it will work, as long as the cards don't need more than 275w from a single 12V rail.

Once I get my hands on an R9 Nano, I'll be able to make my SG05 a bit over 5L in size. I don't see how it can get much smaller though, it's already as small as the actual components by then and there is literally no wasted space. I'm pretty sure an 11 inch card takes up at least a liter and a half on it's own, not to mention the PSU and mobo. How is your case designed? I'm quite interested now as I'm basically the SFF guy around here

[MageTank]

No, it was spot on. I'm a Vegas boy, local as we call ourselves. Bit of a big shindig going on at the moment and AMD brought Polaris out to show off. It's all about efficiency, which is good don't get me wrong as it will help with heat and battery life. But it's not showing any improvement outside of that. And they have a launch date of q2. So I don't need to bet, they already said when it's being released.

And it will be curb stomped. While it's great AMD is trying to get serious with the mobile market, that's not going to happen without an increase in performance.

They had it playing Battlefront.

You only know half of the equation though. How can you speak with certainty without seeing what Nvidia is offering? Blind faith will only take you so far, before you walk off a cliff Nvidia is making the exact same promises that AMD is making. "2x the performance per watt". "10x the compute of maxwell" (which is a funny one, because Maxwell's compute is lacking. 10x something small is not exactly ground breaking) and all the other buzzwords people want to hear when hyping up GPU's.

 

Unless you know something about Pascal that i do not (I've been studying Pascal ever since it was originally called Volta ,before Volta got pushed to where it is at now),and not much has changed since the roadmap back then. 

[byalexandr]

You only know half of the equation though. How can you speak with certainty without seeing what Nvidia is offering? Blind faith will only take you so far, before you walk off a cliff Nvidia is making the exact same promises that AMD is making. "2x the performance per watt". "10x the compute of maxwell" (which is a funny one, because Maxwell's compute is lacking. 10x something small is not exactly ground breaking) and all the other buzzwords people want to hear when hyping up GPU's.

 

Unless you know something about Pascal that i do not (I've been studying Pascal ever since it was originally called Volta ,before Volta got pushed to where it is at now),and not much has changed since the roadmap back then. 

Weren't Volta and Pascal always two completely separate architectures? Or did they split apart?

[Masada02]

I'm going to guess July 25, about a year after Fiji.

[MageTank]

Weren't Volta and Pascal always two completely separate architectures? Or did they split apart?

Pascal was not on the road map back then. It was just Volta. Once the road map changed, Volta was pushed, and Pascal became what Volta was supposed to be. 

[App4that]

You only know half of the equation though. How can you speak with certainty without seeing what Nvidia is offering? Blind faith will only take you so far, before you walk off a cliff Nvidia is making the exact same promises that AMD is making. "2x the performance per watt". "10x the compute of maxwell" (which is a funny one, because Maxwell's compute is lacking. 10x something small is not exactly ground breaking) and all the other buzzwords people want to hear when hyping up GPU's.

Unless you know something about Pascal that i do not (I've been studying Pascal ever since it was originally called Volta ,before Volta got pushed to where it is at now),and not much has changed since the roadmap back then.

I don't expect anything from Nvidia for at least a year, no reason to. That "half the power" is on their product, not a 950m. I have zero faith in Nvidia, my faith lies in AMD's unwillingness to see what it takes to dethrone Nvidia. But for Polaris what we think means nothing. It's what the mobile manufacturers think.

[MageTank]

I don't expect anything from Nvidia for at least a year, no reason to. That "half the power" is on their product, not a 950m. I have zero faith in Nvidia, my faith lies in AMD's unwillingness to see what it takes to dethrone Nvidia. But for Polaris what we think means nothing. It's what the mobile manufacturers think.

This is a very unsatisfying, completely anticlimactic answer to my original question of "what makes you so sure". You're sure, because you are unsure? Come on x.x

[byalexandr]

This is a very unsatisfying, completely anticlimactic answer to my original question of "what makes you so sure". You're sure, because you are unsure? Come on x.x

Let's just end it there, I really don't like these flame wars.

 

I don't expect anything from Nvidia for at least a year, no reason to. That "half the power" is on their product, not a 950m. I have zero faith in Nvidia, my faith lies in AMD's unwillingness to see what it takes to dethrone Nvidia. But for Polaris what we think means nothing. It's what the mobile manufacturers think.

Both are good architectures and will move the industry forward, that's all that counts right?

 

I'm just excited to see AMD being able to compete again is all. Please, let's stop the battles.

[App4that]

This is a very unsatisfying, completely anticlimactic answer to my original question of "what makes you so sure". You're sure, because you are unsure? Come on x.x

I'm not sure, I'm confident. Walk around the show floor and you don't see MSI touting having a model with a Polaris GPU on the way. Polaris is coming to mobile first and that's a horrible decision. If AMD owned the mobile market and Intel put Skylake in mobile six months to a year before desktop applications. What would the hype level be? Put Polaris in the hands of PC builders who are on average more informed consumers than mobile customers who are used to a packaged product. AMD cut out the grinding and went straight to the boss fight.

[byalexandr]

I'm not sure, I'm confident. Walk around the show floor and you don't see MSI touting having a model with a Polaris GPU on the way. Polaris is coming to mobile first and that's a horrible decision. If AMD owned the mobile market and Intel put Skylake in mobile six months to a year before desktop applications. What would the hype level be? Put Polaris in the hands of PC builders who are on average more informed consumers than mobile customers who are used to a packaged product. AMD cut out the grinding and went straight to the boss fight.

Oh boy...

[App4that]

Oh boy...

We'll find out q2. Lenovo will be an important battle line. If they do well then other manufacturers will follow suit.

[MageTank]

I'm not sure, I'm confident. Walk around the show floor and you don't see MSI touting having a model with a Polaris GPU on the way. Polaris is coming to mobile first and that's a horrible decision. If AMD owned the mobile market and Intel put Skylake in mobile six months to a year before desktop applications. What would the hype level be? Put Polaris in the hands of PC builders who are on average more informed consumers than mobile customers who are used to a packaged product. AMD cut out the grinding and went straight to the boss fight.

So you got all of this, by seeing one product, several months before release, and think that will be the case for each and every product released on the same architecture in the coming months? Boy, you must be shocked every single time the heavy hitters (980 Ti, Fury X, etc) come later on in the release cycle.

 

The market is a card game. You never place your best hand down before the river. Otherwise, you either give someone the chance to fold before you can rake them in, or you risk letting them know their hand is better than yours. AMD showing off their best this early on would surely give Nvidia the opportunity to beat them in pricing before its even released. Trust me. What you saw, was nowhere near what the high end cards will look like. 

[byalexandr]

So you got all of this, by seeing one product, several months before release, and think that will be the case for each and every product released on the same architecture in the coming months? Boy, you must be shocked every single time the heavy hitters (980 Ti, Fury X, etc) come later on in the release cycle.

 

The market is a card game. You never place your best hand down before the river. Otherwise, you either give someone the chance to fold before you can rake them in, or you risk letting them know their hand is better than yours. AMD showing off their best this early on would surely give Nvidia the opportunity to beat them in pricing before its even released. Trust me. What you saw, was nowhere near what the high end cards will look like. 

I'll be in the corner... Don't mind me...

[App4that]

So you got all of this, by seeing one product, several months before release, and think that will be the case for each and every product released on the same architecture in the coming months? Boy, you must be shocked every single time the heavy hitters (980 Ti, Fury X, etc) come later on in the release cycle.

 

The market is a card game. You never place your best hand down before the river. Otherwise, you either give someone the chance to fold before you can rake them in, or you risk letting them know their hand is better than yours. AMD showing off their best this early on would surely give Nvidia the opportunity to beat them in pricing before its even released. Trust me. What you saw, was nowhere near what the high end cards will look like. 

I don't know your background, so I won't presume. But I'll share mine. I know developers and manufacturers. Sat through some insanely boring meetings but walked away with an understanding. They have no clue, none. All they understand is mass movements. Card game yes, but I live in Vegas and I'm friends with many a professional gambler. AMD needs desperately to make relationships with developers and manufacturers. If I was AMD I'd be promising Dell the moon. More hookers and blow than those guys at Dell knew existed. Get dell to go all AMD and they you have a card game.

[MageTank]

I don't know your background, so I won't presume. But I'll share mine. I know developers and manufacturers. Sat through some insanely boring meetings but walked away with an understanding. They have no clue, none. All they understand is mass movements. Card game yes, but I live in Vegas and I'm friends with many a professional gambler. AMD needs desperately to make relationships with developers and manufacturers. If I was AMD I'd be promising Dell the moon. More hookers and blow than those guys at Dell knew existed. Get dell to go all AMD and they you have a card game.

Manufacturers... Like Sony? Microsoft? Nintendo (rumored) and any mobile laptop manufacturer that carries their APU/GPU hybrid crossfire setups (Lenovo, Acer, Gateway, etc)? Don't quite understand your point here. As for game developers, I assume you mean similar to what Nvidia has been doing for several years. Yeah... that helps a bit, but it's not exactly what sells cards. Price:Performance sells. The 300 series is proof of this, as the resurgence in their sales (and the way people switched from recommending the 970 to the R9 equivalent) more than prove that point. They are starting to take market share back, and aside from their pricing and recent driver improvements, not much else has changed.

 

As for my background, it's rather simple. I don't know any developers. I certainly don't know any gamblers (We only have 2 Casino's in Columbus, and they are not the greatest), but i know enough about computer hardware to be able to guess on where these two will land. 

 

Like i said before. Nvidia is promising 10x the compute of Maxwell. We can look at Maxwell, and safely guess on where that puts them. They also promised 2x the performance per watt. That either means:

 

A. The next Titan-class gaming card is going to be twice as fast as the previous, while consuming the same power

B. The next Titan-class gaming card is going to be the exact same speed as the previous, consuming half the power, or

C. The next Titan-class gaming card is going to be X % faster than the previous, while consuming X % less power.

 

AMD made the exact same promises too, which means the scenario's are exactly the same for them too. Since both are using the exact same 16nm size, they both will be constrained by the exact same laws of physics. This leaves only a few variables that we cannot account for. None of which make it impossible for AMD to put up an even fight against Nvidia. Unless again, you know something i do not know (aside from these meetings that you've yet to prove the existence of, or the bearing said meetings actually have on the outcome of this subject). 

 

I am not trying to pick a fight. I am only saying what should be considered obvious at this point. We cannot predict the future, we can only make educated guesses. What we know so far, is insufficient to make any absolute statements of which will be better. It's why i do not speak with certainty.

[xAcid9]

Q3 and hopefully $600 for the single gpu flagship. 

[App4that]

I am not trying to pick a fight. I am only saying what should be considered obvious at this point. We cannot predict the future, we can only make educated guesses. What we know so far, is insufficient to make any absolute statements of which will be better. It's why i do not speak with certainty.

Like I said I don't speak with certainty, but confidence. You say AMD is on the comeback?

 

http://www.kitguru.net/components/graphic-cards/anton-shilov/sales-of-desktop-graphics-cards-hit-10-year-low-in-q2-2015/

 

http://www.anandtech.com/show/9722/amd-announces-fy-2015-q3-results-decreased-computing-and-graphics-sales-hurt-bottom-line

 

AMD is recommended, here. And I know that feels like a big change and I'm really not picking on you but it's not. My job in the Video Game industry was taking complaints from customers in forums and presenting them to the developer. Also a bit of a peace keeper. I know, I had an alter ego who was nice  :lol: . 

 

Sure a lot can happen, but AMD has been doing the same thing over and over and I know that trend. Seen it so many times I'm jaded. I want AMD to succeed. It's more interesting that way. But placing your last hope in a market dominated by the competition is not the best odds.

[MeshFile]

Surely it's Q3 of 2016 (September 12) for Polaris. Q2 for Pascal (June 4).

 

Bet is with the user's reputation. Muhahaha.

[angrymoose]

June 16th AMD

September 15 nVidia.