Nvidia 4000 series

[leonardmartin29]

any update on releases for nvidia 4000 series. not rumours real info seems to be around oct 2022

 

[BondiBlue]

If anyone knew anything for sure about upcoming generations of GPUs then we'd have many news articles about it. Until then all we have is a variety of rumors, just as usual. 

[leonardmartin29]

Just now, BondiBlue said:

If anyone knew anything for sure about upcoming generations of GPUs then we'd have many news articles about it. Until then all we have is a variety of rumors, just as usual. 

techradar did a piece on the 4000 series abit ago suggesting oct 2022 they seem to be up to date when it comes to info. i have a 10850k with a gtx680 as i havnt been able to find a gpu at a reasonable price. 

[BondiBlue]

5 minutes ago, leonardmartin29 said:

techradar did a piece on the 4000 series abit ago suggesting oct 2022 they seem to be up to date when it comes to info. i have a 10850k with a gtx680 as i havnt been able to find a gpu at a reasonable price. 

Ok? Almost nobody has been able to get a new GPU at a reasonable price without some luck. As of right now, all we have are rumors. 

[Jurrunio]

38 minutes ago, leonardmartin29 said:

techradar did a piece on the 4000 series abit ago suggesting oct 2022 they seem to be up to date when it comes to info.

Nvidia is very predictable anyway, since 600 series we get a new generation's release (not that you can buy them btw) every 2 years in September, except 10 series in May. 700 and 16 series not counted btw since they are either a refresh or lower part of the product line.

[Gohardgrandpa]

I highly doubt we get new cards in October. For Christ sake they can't make enough of the current cards for everyone to get one. They have 0 reason to make new stuff

[leonardmartin29]

23 hours ago, Gohardgrandpa said:

I highly doubt we get new cards in October. For Christ sake they can't make enough of the current cards for everyone to get one. They have 0 reason to make new stuff

i said october 2022 thats a year away

 

[Gohardgrandpa]

2 hours ago, leonardmartin29 said:

i said october 2022 thats a year away

 

I know. I've been in the evga queue for over a year for a 3080. They can't make cards fast enough to sell them. They can milk this 

[Blue4130]

On 10/6/2021 at 8:30 AM, leonardmartin29 said:

techradar did a piece on the 4000 series abit ago suggesting oct 2022 they seem to be up to date when it comes to info. i have a 10850k with a gtx680 as i havnt been able to find a gpu at a reasonable price. 

But that's a rumor. Not verified news. 

[m9x3mos]

2 hours ago, Gohardgrandpa said:

I know. I've been in the evga queue for over a year for a 3080. They can't make cards fast enough to sell them. They can milk this 

Development on new technology never stops. If they don't and amd releases 7000 series which blows them away competition shifts. 

[Gohardgrandpa]

1 hour ago, m9x3mos said:

Development on new technology never stops. If they don't and amd releases 7000 series which blows them away competition shifts. 

They can't make enough cards right now as it is. We'll see what happens

[m9x3mos]

13 hours ago, Gohardgrandpa said:

They can't make enough cards right now as it is. We'll see what happens

This is true. But if they have a better product why would they continue making an inferior one? 

They will release a new one most likely before everyone who wants a 30 series got one of they are ready to make a new one by October 2022.

[Zodiark1593]

15 hours ago, m9x3mos said:

Development on new technology never stops. If they don't and amd releases 7000 series which blows them away competition shifts. 

Does it matter if AMD cards are even more unobtainium? 

[m9x3mos]

1 hour ago, Zodiark1593 said:

Does it matter if AMD cards are even more unobtainium? 

Maybe not to you, but yes. They want to keep this level of demand for their products as long as they can. Being in the position where you are selling out constantly of all the chips they have made is good for the business and at some point it will start slowing down. Having a stock pile of older chips when the new one is out is not a good thing for manufacturers.

When the miners start selling off gpus again the used market is going to get flooded. 

[Montana One-Six]

On 10/8/2021 at 3:31 AM, m9x3mos said:

If they don't and amd releases 7000 series which blows them away competition shifts.

They sell their shit even faster than nvidia so why would they release a new product? Just like nvidia they will ride that train as long as it goes, which means until demand slows down. Only then they will release RX 7000, that way they will keep people from skipping RX 6000 for 7000 and gain more money in the long run.

 

22 hours ago, m9x3mos said:

But if they have a better product why would they continue making an inferior one? 

Money.

Why would they start something new when they just can sell the current stuff right away. When that demand slows down they release 4000 series, because at that point it has been in the oven for some time and they can cash in twice.

 

20 hours ago, m9x3mos said:

When the miners start selling off gpus again the used market is going to get flooded. 

That has been said for almost a year now. Didn't happen so far and it probably won't anytime soon.

 

 

[m9x3mos]

37 minutes ago, Montana16 said:

They sell their shit even faster than nvidia so why would they release a new product?

Citation needed. I see more 30 series in stream game survey than 6000 amd.

 

38 minutes ago, Montana16 said:

Money.

Why would they start something new when they just can sell the current stuff right away.

They don't stop selling the chips that were already made just start making the new one.  I don't think they would lose any money over it and many people that have 30 series would be buying the 40 just because it is better. 

40 minutes ago, Montana16 said:

That has been said for almost a year now. Didn't happen so far and it probably won't anytime soon.

The state of eth hasn't changed yet with eth 2.0. That is going to be the driver for the sell off. If rumor is right, this should happen next year. 

[m9x3mos]

42 minutes ago, Montana16 said:

Money.

Why would they start something new when they just can sell the current stuff right away.

Forgot to add we have already seen nvidia so this with the release of the ti cards. 

[Montana One-Six]

2 hours ago, m9x3mos said:

Citation needed.

I'm purely going off my experience looking for a new GPU in the first half of 2021. It seemed like AMD cards were overall harder to come by than NVIDIA. Which means they probably never made as much and what was available sold out quick.

 

2 hours ago, m9x3mos said:

They don't stop selling the chips that were already made just start making the new one.

Yes they will sell remaining stock, but why would anyone buy a new 3000 series card when 4000 is out?

My point is AMD and NVIDIA will sell and produce current gen as long as demand is high if that slows down they will release next gen. This doesn't mean production. Production will start before that so they have stock but the point is they will sell current gen as long as the demand is that high and only start selling next gen once demand is low. Which means if the shortage lasts till 2023 I wouldn't expect new cards 2022.

2 hours ago, m9x3mos said:

Forgot to add we have already seen nvidia so this with the release of the ti cards. 

Ti is not new. It is current gen not a new architecture. Ti has always been there since 700 series so it was only a matter of time for 3000. Not comparable at all.

 

2 hours ago, m9x3mos said:

I don't think they would lose any money over it and many people that have 30 series would be buying the 40 just because it is better. 

They would. Lets make a quick and simple example:

Lets say there are 100 people that want a new card. Card availability is low (30 cards a year) but expected to get better (35 cards a year) in year 3 and back to normal (50 cards a year) after that.

Year 1: 30 can get a current gen card

Year 2: 30 get a current gen card

Which means 60 out of the 100 got a new card. Which still leaves 40 without a new card. Are you now going to release a new gen at a slightly better rate or are you going to extend current gen at a slightly better rate and release next gen a year later with better availability?

 

If you release next gen:

The 40 that don't have a current gen card skip to next gen. So you will lose 40 current gen customers. Half of current gen owners (30) also want next gen. So you have 70 people who want to buy next gen.

Year 3: availability got better and 35 can get next gen.

Year 4: availability is back to normal but only 35 want and get next gen 

Year 5: half of current gen owners buy next gen which means 15

Year 6: The rest of current gen owners want next gen. 15 people get next gen.

So after 6 years you sold 60 current gen and 100 next gen cards, so a total of 145 cards.

 

If you extend current gen:

Year 3: availability got better this year 35 of the remaining 40 buy current gen, which leaves 5 without

After that year you release next gen. Those 5 remaining plus half of current gen owners (95/2 = 48) which means 53 want next gen.

Year 4: availability is back to normal and out of those 53 that want next gen 50 get next gen. Which leaves 3.

Year 5: The 3 remaining plus half of current gen owners (47/2 = 24) buy next gen which means 27.

Year 6: the rest of current gen owners want next gen. 23 get next gen

So after 6 years you sold 95 current gen and 100 next gen, so a total of 195 cards.

 

[m9x3mos]

2 hours ago, Montana16 said:

I'm purely going off my experience looking for a new GPU in the first half of 2021. It seemed like AMD cards were overall harder to come by than NVIDIA. Which means they probably never made as much and what was available sold out quick.

 

Yes they will sell remaining stock, but why would anyone buy a new 3000 series card when 4000 is out?

My point is AMD and NVIDIA will sell and produce current gen as long as demand is high if that slows down they will release next gen. This doesn't mean production. Production will start before that so they have stock but the point is they will sell current gen as long as the demand is that high and only start selling next gen once demand is low. Which means if the shortage lasts till 2023 I wouldn't expect new cards 2022.

Ti is not new. It is current gen not a new architecture. Ti has always been there since 700 series so it was only a matter of time for 3000. Not comparable at all.

 

They would. Lets make a quick and simple example:

Lets say there are 100 people that want a new card. Card availability is low (30 cards a year) but expected to get better (35 cards a year) in year 3 and back to normal (50 cards a year) after that.

Year 1: 30 can get a current gen card

Year 2: 30 get a current gen card

Which means 60 out of the 100 got a new card. Which still leaves 40 without a new card. Are you now going to release a new gen at a slightly better rate or are you going to extend current gen at a slightly better rate and release next gen a year later with better availability?

 

If you release next gen:

The 40 that don't have a current gen card skip to next gen. So you will lose 40 current gen customers. Half of current gen owners (30) also want next gen. So you have 70 people who want to buy next gen.

Year 3: availability got better and 35 can get next gen.

Year 4: availability is back to normal but only 35 want and get next gen 

Year 5: half of current gen owners buy next gen which means 15

Year 6: The rest of current gen owners want next gen. 15 people get next gen.

So after 6 years you sold 60 current gen and 100 next gen cards, so a total of 145 cards.

 

If you extend current gen:

Year 3: availability got better this year 35 of the remaining 40 buy current gen, which leaves 5 without

After that year you release next gen. Those 5 remaining plus half of current gen owners (95/2 = 48) which means 53 want next gen.

Year 4: availability is back to normal and out of those 53 that want next gen 50 get next gen. Which leaves 3.

Year 5: The 3 remaining plus half of current gen owners (47/2 = 24) buy next gen which means 27.

Year 6: the rest of current gen owners want next gen. 23 get next gen

So after 6 years you sold 95 current gen and 100 next gen, so a total of 195 cards.

 

And from a consumer perspective, that makes perfect sense. And if there was no competition and they could convince AMD and Intel not to release any competing products that would be a perfect solution for them. But it is more complicated then that. And with team red being very close to beating nvidia at the high end, they would be be looking to beat them. 

Also if there are fans making chips at 5nm for the new architecture and 7nm existing they may just make both till the back log is satisfied. 

[Montana One-Six]

16 hours ago, m9x3mos said:

But it is more complicated then that.

Of course it is more complicated than that, it was just a simple example to underline what I mean. That's why companies have market research departments to figure out how to make the most profit.

 

16 hours ago, m9x3mos said:

And if there was no competition and they could convince AMD and Intel not to release any competing products that would be a perfect solution for them.

Why would they need to convince anyone? AMD is in the same boat. They also want to make the most profit, which means if delaying 7000 series release expects them to net more profit they will do just that. Intel on the other hand isn't even in the conversation. If the leaks are anything to go by they aren't a big threat to either AMD or NVIDIA in the GPU space. 

If AMD announces next gen or anything that could be new cards for next year NVIDIA will do the same and vice versa. So as long as one doesn't go all in with a new release we won't see a new release from either anytime soon.

 

16 hours ago, m9x3mos said:

Also if there are fans making chips at 5nm for the new architecture and 7nm existing they may just make both till the back log is satisfied.

That doesn't make a lot of sense because you are going to end up with 7nm products that won't sell unless discounted significantly which cuts into profit margins hard, so that won't happen. It is either release a new card or extend current gen and not both.

 

At this point it is anyone's guess and it wouldn't be the first time they switch things up last minute but I believe we won't see next gen cards in 2022 but rather 2023.

[Lotrbee]

an endless debate I think. here we argue, while there the corpoes are just looking at us while thinking how to sell more and more.. #seriouslykidding