Tesla has now produced 1 million Electric cars in total.

[leadeater]

1 minute ago, Bombastinator said:

They’re what the rest of the world has got though so they’re being played up pretty hard

Well if you are referring to vehicle safety then the rest of the world got through by way of many, many deaths. By the stats they aren't being talked up enough.

[Bombastinator]

1 hour ago, comander said:

I'm going to assume you don't live in a major city. 

 

They're everywhere in LA and SF. 

 

Let me rephrase. They're everywhere. 

 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/electrek.co/2020/01/01/tesla-updates-2020-supercharger-map/amp/

 

 

The typical Tesla customer is a city hopping 6 figure income type that is probably fine limiting themselves to a hotel with a charger... Assuming they aren't flying. 

The guy I know and rely on to keep me abreast of tesla info who has been following tesla most closely is an electrician.  A six figure income he does not have.  Tesla Ses and Xes are expensive it is true. Not more expensive than a lot of higher end customized 4 wheel drive pickups, but not cheap for sure.  They’re not the only car tesla makes though. The new one they just started shipping is called the model “y”.  It’s an “suv” that looks a whole lot like a slightly raised sort of fat 5 door sedan.  They apparently run around 50k.  The model 3 starts at 40k.  City and suburban  dwellers will find them more useful than truly rural drivers in all probability.  Unless they’re farmers who have electrical generation.  For them electricity is even cheaper.  

[Bombastinator]

7 minutes ago, leadeater said:

Well if you are referring to vehicle safety then the rest of the world got through by way of many, many deaths. By the stats they aren't being talked up enough.

I was referring to the other car makers.

[leadeater]

1 minute ago, Bombastinator said:

I was referring to the other car makers.

Suspected I wasn't understanding that fully. Anyway not saying what you originally stated as wrong or anything, the extra parts etc could be adding nothing to safety or making it worse so could very well be unjustified cost. I know Tesla generally (if you can generalize that few models?) do have safe cars but they haven't earned more inherent trust like for example Volvo, Renault or Honda. 

 

Personally I'd like to see Tesla exit the motor vehicle market or only do specialty cars (Roadster) and become an OEM electric vehicle drivetrain and parts supplier. Many cars are already the same car with a different badge and shell on it and I think we'd all be better off if companies focused on where they were actually superior on. 

[Bombastinator]

7 minutes ago, leadeater said:

Suspected I wasn't understanding that fully. Anyway not saying what you originally stated as wrong or anything, the extra parts etc could be adding nothing to safety or making it worse so could very well be unjustified cost. I know Tesla generally (if you can generalize that few models?) do have safe cars but they haven't earned more inherent trust like for example Volvo, Renault or Honda. 

 

Personally I'd like to see Tesla exit the motor vehicle market or only do specialty cars (Roadster) and become an OEM electric vehicle drivetrain and parts supplier. Many cars are already the same car with a different badge and shell on it and I think we'd all be better off if companies focused on where they were actually superior on. 

I think Tesla as an OEM “skateboard” manufacturer doing what riva is basically doing for Ford is an option.  For some years in the early days of automobiles there were drivetrain makers and “coachwork” companies.  That’s how dusenberg did a lot of their cars.  Drivetrain makers tended to get their technology stolen and then made redundant by the car makers though which seems to be something tesla is keen on avoiding.  My Goldilocks scenario was for tesla to buy Chrysler.  Tesla is going up though and several car manufacturers are having more and more trouble.  We will see what time will bring.

[leadeater]

2 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

Drivetrain makers tended to get their technology stolen and then made redundant by the car makers though which seems to be something tesla is keen on avoiding.

Well they could always sell themselves to VW Group, like everyone else. That's like 8 actually decent brands to supply.

[Bombastinator]

2 minutes ago, leadeater said:

Well they could always sell themselves to VW Group, like everyone else. That's like 8 actually decent brands to supply.

I doubt VW is in a buying mood lately.  They’ve got a pretty distended belly and a few other issues at the moment.

 

My suspicion is they’re going to buy someone else rather than the reverse.  Pretty much every car maker on earth kinda wants to own tesla atm I think, just for the parents.  I currently am going to be looking for a car in the near future.  I don’t think my current can last until the tesla pickup come out.  My choices seem to be a 2014 S or a brand new mini E. (I need something I can fit through the door of)  The mini E has a third the range.  Not a huge problem for me, personally, but the tech is not looking that great.  The 2014 S may actually be a more advanced car and the mini E isn’t even out yet.

[leadeater]

9 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

I currently am going to be looking for a car in the near future.  I don’t think my current can last until the tesla pickup come out.  My choices seem to be a 2014 S or a brand new mini E. (I need something I can fit through the door of)  The mini E has a third the range.  Not a huge problem for me, personally, but the tech is not looking that great.  The 2014 S may actually be a more advanced car and the mini E isn’t even out yet.

I'm waiting for the Model 3 to have a used market here, in the mean time I brought the cheapest low quality used Gen 2 Leaf with a semi decent SOH I could find. Going to save me around $5k/y, keeping my current car for long distance/not to work travel. If I'm lucky I can sell both and have little to no extra to pay over top of what I saved on fuel/tyres.

[Kilrah]

3 hours ago, comander said:

The typical Tesla customer is a city hopping 6 figure income type that is probably fine limiting themselves to a hotel with a charger... Assuming they aren't flying. 

Now yes, but the ongoing discussion was precisely about changing that and the availability of charging stations was pointed as a limitation for the average Joe to be able to use one. 

[leadeater]

11 minutes ago, Kilrah said:

Now yes, but the ongoing discussion was precisely about changing that and the availability of charging stations was pointed as a limitation for the average Joe to be able to use one. 

Charge at home.....

 

For anything long distance there is already enough charging stations to not have a problem, yes it's less convenient compared to petrol station availability but you are not going to be unable to charge or get to where you need to. There will be rare situations for people where that is a problem but that is very much not typical. Everyone with electricity can charge at home, everyone with an internet connected device can find a charging station and unless you're an idiot (this happens to people with petrol cars) you will not run out of range before you get to it.

 

We can't stop stupid so why worry about it.

Edited March 15, 2020 by leadeater

[Kilrah]

As mentioned charging at home is not an option for everybody, again when you go outside of the "6-figure income" group and want to consider the "average Joe" he doesn't necessarily have his own separate home and a nice garage, but may live in an apartment block where he can't just bring power to his parking spot. 

[leadeater]

17 minutes ago, Kilrah said:

As mentioned charging at home is not an option for everybody, again when you go outside of the "6-figure income" group and want to consider the "average Joe" he doesn't necessarily have his own separate home and a nice garage, but may live in an apartment block where he can't just bring power to his parking spot. 

Were I live (the country) apartments are not the norm and the average joe has off street parking. They may be renting the home or own it but home charging is very much an average joe ability. Not everyone is living in similar situation sure, but average joe is very much not the same average. I'm not in the "6 figure income" group but I own a home and have the ability to home charge.

 

And even then if you can't home charge you can still get to a charging station and charge, in this future state of more availability of EVs with range getting higher every year/model release it's just as viable as a petrol car, just for now less convenient on an ever increasing convenience curve.

 

Edit:

And for Europe I can sure bet at some point relatively soon some of those countries are going to pass laws to have charging availability to apartments and similar accommodation. This is right up alley of the kind of thing they do.

[RejZoR]

And when you're at that point, electric charging really isn't that cheap. It's actually really expensive on charging stations.

[leadeater]

6 minutes ago, RejZoR said:

And when you're at that point, electric charging really isn't that cheap. It's actually really expensive on charging stations.

Well here home charging equates to 15% of what you'd pay for petrol so you only have to achieve parity or less then it doesn't really matter. Charging stations can cost a fair bit which is true but on the other hand very often my counsel makes their chargers free for periods of time ( edit: i.e. free all of summer) so it only costs the price of an hour or 2 of parking, which you can go do the things you were going to anyway.

Edited March 15, 2020 by leadeater

[RejZoR]

It's also incredibly overcomplicated to charge an electric car. Expecting old people to deal with moronic mobile phone diddling to activate it is just something that needs to die. Opposed with popping into a petrol station, sticking the handle in it, fill it up and pay for it. They really need to address this.

[Monkey Dust]

2 hours ago, Bombastinator said:

I doubt VW is in a buying mood lately.  They’ve got a pretty distended belly and a few other issues at the moment.

 

My suspicion is they’re going to buy someone else rather than the reverse.  Pretty much every car maker on earth kinda wants to own tesla atm I think, just for the parents.  I currently am going to be looking for a car in the near future.  I don’t think my current can last until the tesla pickup come out.  My choices seem to be a 2014 S or a brand new mini E. (I need something I can fit through the door of)  The mini E has a third the range.  Not a huge problem for me, personally, but the tech is not looking that great.  The 2014 S may actually be a more advanced car and the mini E isn’t even out yet.

I can't see Tesla buying a large manufacturer any time soon, they have no spare cash. They're not an Apple, MS, Amazon, Google or Facebook, massively profitable and sitting on a huge pile of cash for acquisitions.

 

A high stock valuation isn't money a company can spend. A limited amount could be raised with a rights issue, but that would risk a rapid deflation in stock price as the current price isn't underpinned by high net assets. Corporate bonds with the option at redemption to repay with stock is an option, but interest is obviously payable on that effecting the viability of any deal.

 

The Mini E is a 'dipping a toe in the water' with an old platform. I wouldn't touch one, there will likely be a much better one along in another couple of years with a full selection of body styles. It's about time there was a droptop EV, Mini could be the first.

[Guest willies leg]

I see the Model Y reviews coming out, first one delivered!

It looks awesome! So much room under the floor in the back, and the frunk is huge!

Still love my 3 but boy, do I want the Y now!

[RejZoR]

21 minutes ago, comander said:

Most of today's 70 year olds won't be driving in 20 years. 

 

Most of today's 60 year olds could probably figure out a "move your phone over the sensor and hit OK", even the relatively technophobic ones. 

Except you need to first install not one but bunch of stupid proprietary apps, link them with whatever payment processor you use and then be sure you use the right one at the right charging spot (you can't just assume everyone has a smartphone let alone one with NFC). It's dumb even from my perspective and I'm a technophile. It's just absolutely incomparable to sticking a handle into a car to fill it up and paying for whatever number of unit you used. And they need to make electric charging like that. Be accessible to anyone with a god damn credit card (or even cash for that matter). So you stick the card there, pick the charge and be done with it. There is absolutely no need for this mobile phone middleware fuckery. It just needs to die. Like, now.

[Fnige]

4 hours ago, RejZoR said:

Except you need to first install not one but bunch of stupid proprietary apps, link them with whatever payment processor you use and then be sure you use the right one at the right charging spot (you can't just assume everyone has a smartphone let alone one with NFC). It's dumb even from my perspective and I'm a technophile. It's just absolutely incomparable to sticking a handle into a car to fill it up and paying for whatever number of unit you used. And they need to make electric charging like that. Be accessible to anyone with a god damn credit card (or even cash for that matter). So you stick the card there, pick the charge and be done with it. There is absolutely no need for this mobile phone middleware fuckery. It just needs to die. Like, now.

so how fuel stations are now right? or at least around where i live

[RejZoR]

6 hours ago, comander said:

As someone who averaged around 50 miles a week and procrastinated driving 1 block to a gas station, how is doing all that once worse than having to drive somewhere instead of plugging in a cord in your garage once every other month?

 

Any why do most of those barriers matter when they're one offs that could probably be handled at a dealership, phone store or through family and friends?

 

 

Also is there any reason to believe that the model couldn't be shifted to be more like a cell phone bill? You use stuff, it's linked to you, you get an email once a month and your credit card is set to auto pay. 

Why would you pay 15k € extra upfront for that kind of driving to begin with? It’s why no EV makes sense for me even if electricity for it was FREE! I’ll never pay that much for insurance, tires, fuel, oil and all filters in a decade!

[Bombastinator]

42 minutes ago, RejZoR said:

Why would you pay 15k € extra upfront for that kind of driving to begin with? It’s why no EV makes sense for me even if electricity for it was FREE! I’ll never pay that much for insurance, tires, fuel, oil and all filters in a decade!

How did tires get in?  Electric and mechanical cars both use gas.  Mechanical repairs are being left out though.  A gas engine drive train has well over a thousand moving parts. An electric car has under 10.  Maybe the maintainance works out the same with battery replacement or something.  I don’t know.  There’s the variability of gas prices to consider even with the “screw everyone! I do what’s cheapest for ME!” approach.  They’re incredibly low at the moment.  Unsustainably low.

[RejZoR]

5 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

How did tires get in?  Electric and mechanical cars both use gas.  Mechanical repairs are being left out though.  A gas engine drive train has well over a thousand moving parts. An electric car has under 10.  Maybe the maintainance works out the same with battery replacement or something.  I don’t know.  There’s the variability of gas prices to consider even with the “screw everyone! I do what’s cheapest for ME!” approach.  They’re incredibly low at the moment.  Unsustainably low.

I said I can count in even tires and insurance with petrol car and I can’t reach what you pay extra upfront for EV.

[Kilrah]

It's just showing the difference in wages between countries more than anything else. 

You might be able to operate an ICE car for 15k€ all costs considered for 10 years in Slovenia, but good luck with that in Germany... The difference in the price of the car being roughly the same makes it obviously disproportionate, but it's down to the location and condition more than the car itself.

[Bombastinator]

3 minutes ago, Kaloob said:

$40K isn't cheap. That's almost 3-series money. And $50K is getting decently close to even the M340i.

(And yes, they aren't very good comparisons, but my point is that $40-50K is entry level luxury car money).

It is.  It’s also Ford F-150 money.  Entry level car prices have tripled since the 80’s.

[Bombastinator]

1 hour ago, Kaloob said:

You can get a F150 for much less than $40K, and the ones that cost that much are not "entry level" by any stretch of the imagination. People usually take out extremely long loans on those and/or take advantage of the big 3's incentives. Not to mention an F150 would give you much more utility than a compact sedan/SUV. An entry level car is ~15K for a subcompact, or if you need something bigger, ~19K for a compact.

There do appear to be 7 models.  The xl, xlt, lariat, raptor (I know you can spec those above 80k), and premium.  The cheapest apparently starts at a smidgen below 29k.  Doubt it has 4 wheel drive though.  Or anything but vinyl seats, or a bunch of other stuff.