Anyone here particularly good at math? (probability)

[zindan]

The question I have is advanced and I hope it's okay to post it here since it is kinda "tech related" 

It is a complicated probability question between two different dice games and the solution will be difficult and require time. 

If anyone with highly developed math skills would wanna give it a shot, you can pm me and I'l give you the task. 

I hope it's okay. 

Thanks for me. 

[Electronics Wizardy]

Why not post the question here?

 

I have taken a few stats classes.

[WolfRamAlpha12]

Post the question

[zindan]

2 minutes ago, Electronics Wizardy said:

Why not post the question here?

 

I have taken a few stats classes.

 

1 minute ago, WolfRamAlpha12 said:

Post the question

My english isn't tip top... DO NOT attempt to solve this task without checking with me first, ask me if you understood it correctly. 

Well alright Give me a few minutes and I will do my best to form the question. 

EDIT: Actually give me 15-20 minutes (gotta pee, been shaking for 10 minutes now)

[Velcade]

2 minutes ago, zindan said:

[...] I will do my best to form the question [...]

Are you making this up as you go?

[DocSwag]

I haven't taken classes that far but I do a lot of competition math and probability is generally my strong suit.

[zindan]

1 minute ago, Velcade said:

Are you making this up as you go?

Since I have a solution from a person that is very good at math and will compare it to the replies I get here. NO 

Why would I make this up ? The task is very complex and I need to rewrite it in english since I have it in swedish. 

[Electronics Wizardy]

1 minute ago, zindan said:

Since I have a solution from a person that is very good at math and will compare it to the replies I get here. NO 

Why would I make this up ? The task is very complex and I need to rewrite it in english since I have it in swedish. 

is this homework? Please don't post homework here.

[zindan]

Just now, Electronics Wizardy said:

is this homework? Please don't post homework here.

Nah, this is just for fun. 

[zindan]

26 minutes ago, Electronics Wizardy said:

is this homework? Please don't post homework here.

 

29 minutes ago, DocSwag said:

I haven't taken classes that far but I do a lot of competition math and probability is generally my strong suit.

 

30 minutes ago, Velcade said:

Are you making this up as you go?

 

34 minutes ago, WolfRamAlpha12 said:

Post the question

GOODLUCK! I will be very impressed if you manage to calculate this exactly!

 

(Forgive my english, it is a third language)

 

What I am about to present to you contains 2 different games where a hundred-sided dice is included in both of the games.

In both games you approach a table and place a bet. If you win then the host has to give you twice as much money as you bet. (This is not so important but just so you get a better understanding of the games)

The task is to calculate in which of these two games is an average person most likely to win in?

THE HOST ALWAYS ROLLS THE DICE

Game 1 (55x2); If the dice = 100 => you win straight away
if the dice < 55 you lose
if the dice lands on anything between 100 and 55 or even 55 then it’s a win.

Basically your chance of winning here is 45/100 I would say


Game 2 (blackjack): You may at any point tell the host to stop and that will be your final score.

The host rolls the dice first for you and then once you say stop you will have your score. After that he rolls for himself and tries to beat your score. If you reach 100 on your turn then the game is over and you have won.

If the dice lands at 100 you win straight away because you got blackjack

if your score goes above 100 you lose straight away.

Lets say the host rolls 66 for you and you want to keep on going then he will roll for you again, if your value goes above 100 you lose straight away and the game ends.

If you chose to stop at 66 then the host has to beat your score, same rules applies to him though. If he goes above 100 he loses and you win.


Which of these games is more likely to earn you money, which is most “probable” to win at ?



BTW I MUST ADD!!!: 
If you score 99 at the black jack table and the host also scores 99 it equals in host takes the win! 

[zindan]

@Electronics Wizardy
@DocSwag
@Velcade
@WolfRamAlpha12

If you are unable to solve it or if you don't even wanna give it a try, please let me know. 

[Jamesmccann5555]

idk

[DocSwag]

20 minutes ago, zindan said:

Game 2 (blackjack): You may at any point tell the host to stop and that will be your final score.

The host rolls the dice first for you and then once you say stop you will have your score. After that he rolls for himself and tries to beat your score. If you reach 100 on your turn then the game is over and you have won.

If the dice lands at 100 you win straight away because you got blackjack

if your score goes above 100 you lose straight away.

Lets say the host rolls 66 for you and you want to keep on going then he will roll for you again, if your value goes above 100 you lose straight away and the game ends.

If you chose to stop at 66 then the host has to beat your score, same rules applies to him though. If he goes above 100 he loses and you win.

Can we assume the host takes the exact same strategy as you do

[zindan]

Just now, DocSwag said:

Can we assume the host takes the exact same strategy as you do

What do you mean ? 

[Unhelpful]

31 minutes ago, zindan said:

 

Game 1: 45:100.

Game 2: You left a lot of details out on this, so I'll assume it's normal blackjack. The chance of winning in blackjack is ~42.2%. The odds of a natural blackjack is 4.8%. A tie is about 8%, and a loss is about 49%.

 

Are the blackjack odds 3:2? If so, it's a 150% return for a win at a 42% chance for a win, and an 8% chance of a tie.

 

Meanwhile Game 1 is 2:1 with a 45% chance to win with no chance of a tie.

[TacoSenpai]

Hmmmm well I'm calculating a 33.333% repeating of course chance of success.

 

Spoiler

Yes this is a reference to something.

 

[zindan]

Just now, JoeyDM said:

Game 1: 45:100.

Game 2: You left a lot of details out on this. I'll assume it's normal blackjack. The chance of winning in blackjack is ~42%. The odds of a natural blackjack is 4.8%.

 

Are the blackjack odds 3:2? If so, it's a 150% return for a win at a 42% chance for a win.

 

Meanwhile Game 1 is 2:1 with a 45% chance.

Damn 42% is really close to the correct answer. 0,4256625 is what the other dude got. 

I didn't leave out any details. The rules are pretty simple. It's not like normal blackjack. 

[Unhelpful]

1 minute ago, zindan said:

I didn't leave out any details. The rules are pretty simple. It's not like normal blackjack. 

For profitability the odds are very important. 

 

See my edit as well.

[Unhelpful]

2 minutes ago, LordOTaco said:

Hmmmm well I'm calculating a 33.333% repeating of course chance of success.

 

  Hide contents

Yes this is a reference to something.

 

LEEROOOOOOOOY

 

MMMMMMJEEEEEEENKIIIINS

[zindan]

1 minute ago, JoeyDM said:

For profitability the odds are very important. 

 

See my edit as well.

tie equals host win. 

[EPENEX]

You would have a better chance with the 55x2 dice game as far as I understand.

[zindan]

Just now, EPENEX said:

You would have a better chance with the 55x2 dice game as far as I understand.

That is the truth.  But that is a mere guess right? 

[Unhelpful]

Just now, zindan said:

tie equals host win. 

What are the returns with the blackjack game? Double? 3:2?

[zindan]

Just now, JoeyDM said:

What are the returns with the blackjack game? Double? 3:2?

What do you mean? He just doubles the win. This has nothing to do with the calculation. If you are talking about the price. 

[Unhelpful]

Just now, zindan said:

What do you mean? He just doubles the win. This has nothing to do with the calculation. If you are talking about the price. 

My mistake, I misread and thought only game 1 was 2:1.