Fan Bearings wearing out in 10 series GPU fans as expected life time elapses. A GPUpocalypse?

[Uttamattamakin]

16 hours ago, Zodiark1593 said:

I’d been hearing this a nearly decade ago (when the Ilano APUs were first coming out), and has yet to occur. If size differences on modern fabrication isn’t enough to dissuade this opinion, consider both the memory bus widths and memory itself common on high end cards. Wide memory buses are expensive, and GDDR memory is power hungry in return for what is effectively highly clocked Quad Data Rate RAM. Integrating GDDR memory onto a motherboard would heavily increase complexity. 
 

Consider that we’ve just barely reached the point where real-time ray tracing is merely feasible, not even mentioning the fact that a true, unbiased renderer is very far away from running real-time, and game developers are rather ambitious people willing to push the bounds of what’s available, I find this to be unlikely for the foreseeable future, barring some potential circumstances...

This is a good point.  In a way they were right.  A AMD Ryzen 4700G or even 3400g can give a graphcis performance that blows the doors off of anything from 20 years ago, and which is at least equal to a low end graphics card.  Which is all it has to be.  IGP's and APU's provide basic display output, acceleration via GPGPU assistance etc.    They also have the mos efficient interconnect to the CPU has possible being either on the same die or on the same package. 

 

The question is when will good enough be good enough graphically speaking.  I mean even the most relatistic game looks like a game? 

Do we need a holodeck level Sci-Fi level experience before it is just  good enough and further improvements bring diminishing returns.  As has occured with sound cards. 

 

16 hours ago, Zodiark1593 said:

 

 The other circumstance would be a technological stunting, brought on by customers having so little availability of GPU components that developers are literally forced to target iGPUs (and quite possibly last gen consoles) for their recommended spec. This would only be temporary until supplies improve however. 
 

The apocalyptic situation would be for AMD and Nvidia to simply stop catering to gamers, and reserve their performant lineups (outside basic display adaptors) for their professional lineups, forcing gamers and developers to stuff it. Probably only realistic if GPU mining is to be a permanent factor or vendors are forced into lesser quantities of silicon (by government intervention perhaps?), as the professional market alone isn’t large enough to move a lot of chips and sustain Amd/Nvidia. 

This is what I think is really likely to force us all to decide that games that look like games instead of the holodeck is acceptable.  That good enough is good enough.  

I don't think that Nvidia or AMD will ever really truly "reserve" their best for just the high end.  There are just so many industries that depend on GPU's and GPU like silicon that individual gamers will be outbid.  The DIY parts segment may essentially go away when it comes to a lot of these parts.  They will be available to corporate OEM's  maybe SI's.  That's it.  

 

In a way this has happened already.  Consider  this.  When was the last time you could go to a MicroCenter or Memory Express etc  and see a full shelf of every tier of GPU? Around me it's been at least 5 years. 

 

Mining and blockchain are here to stay.  The price will go up and down and the coins will change but it seems to be a thing.  Now that banks and big governments are into it.  Not to mention alphabet agencies (CIA, FSB, GCHQ probably, NSA probably) can do their dirty work without having to move product around. 

 

The thing about professional use of technology is ... if you use it for work.  After a certain point the investment in the technology has paid off 10X over and it's not really a cost anymore.  So Nvidia could just deem every card to be a Quadro.  Quadruple the price, and professionals would pay it.  Miners would pay it.  Governments would pay it. 

[Uttamattamakin]

16 hours ago, HelpfulTechWizard said:

Omg, not this shit again.

 

 

A separate gpu will always be a better value for $/perf. It's purpose built. And compair ddr4 to gddr6x. Compaired to 6x, Ddr4 is like how one would view sdr ram now.

Yes.  I'm sure if I look through usenet I can find a lot of people saying that a separate sound card will "always" be better than on board sound.  Like "What we're just gonna make due with PC speaker  Baahhh ahahahaha".  

 

12 hours ago, Arika S said:

depends on the AIB, not every manufacturer is going to be using the same supplier for fans.

 

Something tells me you just hate dGPUs because you can't purchase a new one and want everything to be made for APUs and iGPUs.

 

I don't hate DGPU's.  I own a GTX 1080 FE and a GTX 1050.  I have them.  I love what I can do with them for science.    In fact my own work could justify just putting down the money for a Quadro level card. It would allow me to go beyond simply testing out my models to see if they at least don't break the universe to running much more convincing simulations. 

 

What I was saying in the other thread was that given the unobtainability of GPU's gamers should really refocus on what they CAN GET.  Stop wanting the unobtainable, practically non existant GPU and get the most out of what you have. 

 

What I am concerned with now is that given that many PC's don't have and IGPU and like me are working with older dGPU's that the day the fans on these old cars start to fail is going to be a very bad one for a lot of people.  With no IGP to fall back on they won't be able to use their computers at all.   (I'll be fine since I built my machine with an APU in part for the redundancy it offers. )

 

4 hours ago, LogicalDrm said:

-> Moved to Graphics Cards

Wasn't intended to go the way it did but I understand why.  If someone has only their dGPU and it fails they are up **** creek without a paddle.   Their whole system is unavailable and wtihout replacement parts unrepairable. 

 

Maybe I am wrong to even bring this kind of thing up in a forum  and should've just bought up all the fans I could to corner the market for when the mass failure of old fans starts. LOL. 

1 hour ago, Mick Naughty said:

Plenty of fan replacements available for the models I would buy. But my cooling has no moving parts with difficult parts availability. 
Well past the cards life span, so if it’s an issue just upgrade to something new. 

That's the thing about the founders edition cards of the 10 series they have these ... bespoke custom cooling fans that don't look like I could strap a case fan to them and call it good.    In hindsight I would've considered this contingency as well.  

Who could've known in 2015 or 2016 that five years latter production wouldn 't be so ramped up, the chanel so flooded with parts that this shortage could not  happen.  

I am not convinced this was just due to COVID either.  It didn't help... but something tells me we'd still be in this situation regardless.  Relying on parts that are past their expiration date. 

[LogicalDrm]

6 minutes ago, Uttamattamakin said:

Wasn't intended to go the way it did but I understand why.  If someone has only their dGPU and it fails they are up **** creek without a paddle.   Their whole system is unavailable and wtihout replacement parts unrepairable. 

You posted about GPUs having longevity issues. How is that not Graphics Cards stuff? Unless you can prove it being systematic across the field, it doesn't belong to GD.

[Mark Kaine]

33 minutes ago, Uttamattamakin said:

The question is when will good enough be good enough graphically speaking.  I mean even the most relatistic game looks like a game? 

Do we need a holodeck level Sci-Fi level experience before it is just  good enough

Vast majority of games don't even get physics right (which was done better in some older games already) we're far - far away from actually realistic real time graphics (getting there with pre rendered for sure though) the future (10-20 years) will be that everything is real time raytraced, that's when we can start talking about 

33 minutes ago, Uttamattamakin said:

diminishing returns

not any earlier. 

 

33 minutes ago, Uttamattamakin said:

As has occured with sound cards. 

To be fair, a lot of people have really bad hearing, that's how mp3 became successful... 

 

 

As for the topic at hand, while you make some good 'off topic' points (the whole igpu thing, and your work, etc) are you serious? if a fan breaks you replace it... it's simple, and even if someone doesn't know how they will easily find someone who does, if it's their only option (since they obviously have no igpu) 

 

Btw I just started gaming on pc seriously 2 years ago and have 2 spare GPU's laying around already (3 if we count the Ryzen 2200G 'apu') , I'd imagine with people who are longer at it they'll probably have dozens lol... the fans is really a non issue - especially because it hasn't happened widespread yet, and it also won't (in the foreseeable future) 

[Uttamattamakin]

9 minutes ago, LogicalDrm said:

You posted about GPUs having longevity issues. How is that not Graphics Cards stuff? Unless you can prove it being systematic across the field, it doesn't belong to GD.

I see your point of view.  I wasn't objecting I was just explaining why I thought it was systemtic.    If the GPU does not work one has no video out.  No video out, no way to use the computer (Unless one has enabled remote access RDP VNC or something). 

[Uttamattamakin]

23 hours ago, Kanna said:

You don’t post often but when you do damn is it educational and well written 

Can't help myself.  I teach and research for a living.  Thanks for the feedback.  

 

3 minutes ago, Mark Kaine said:

Vast majority of games don't even get physics right (which was done better in some older games already) we're far - far away from actually realistic real time graphics (getting there with pre rendered for sure though) the future (10-20 years) will be that everything is real time raytraced, that's when we can start talking about 

not any earlier. 

 

This is true.  Very few games are simply applying Newtons laws and the laws of optics to generate their worlds.  Instead they simulate them or approximate the motion.  To really apply those laws would mean a computer simultaneously solving many many differential equations.  One equation per physical object.  
 

However, you do concede that the diminishing returns point does exist even if we aren't close to it?  In your opinion.

 

As for the sound card thing.  There are physical limits to human hearing.  High quality digital recordings exceeded those limits long ago.   SOME have better hearing than normal.  

https://scienceblogs.com/cognitivedaily/2007/11/30/few-listeners-can-distinguish

 

By that same logic some people can see colors that normally can't be seen.  Some people can see a little bit of UV light.  Some others, certain women have four color sensitive cells in their eyes instead of three.    A lot more people think they are tetrachromates than really are though. 

 

https://www.healthline.com/health/tetrachromacy  Supposedly they can see Millions more colors than normal.  Very few have been confirmed by examination.  So yeah there will be some for whom no simulation will be good enough. 

[Mark Kaine]

On 3/1/2021 at 6:57 PM, Uttamattamakin said:

This is true.  Very few games are simply applying Newtons laws and the laws of optics to generate their worlds

well I don't expect them to have totally accurate emulation of real time real world physics - that may not even be feasible, but in a lot of games it's just really basic and not good or convincing - there are a lot of tricks that can help making it convincing without using much computational resources - they do require talent and some creative effort however, which I feel is lacking with many developers, they often go for the "it's good enough" approach... (even though it's not) 

 

Also clothing / hair physics, how is this not properly done yet (in most games) ... it's not that hard, again just requires some effort, and time (it's called rigging) and should be really not an issue at all for 'AAA' developers... 

 

 

On 3/1/2021 at 6:57 PM, Uttamattamakin said:

As for the sound card thing.  There are physical limits to human hearing.

well yes, of course, but that doesn't mean that the vast majority of sounds aren't low quality mp3s, which in theory is a great algorithm, in practice often lacks quality though and the algorithm has by design faults that don't help - tldr they cut out too much, it's not that people couldn't hear it, it's that the designers failed to understand that certain frequencies are *important* for the character of a sound or song. 

 

Again a 'good enough' approach and therefore certainly doesn't need sophisticated high end audio equipment, a 5$ mp3 chip does the job just fine. 

 

On 3/1/2021 at 6:57 PM, Uttamattamakin said:

SOME have better hearing than normal. 

yeah, but that isn't about that, it's more about frequencies the average human *can* hear, it's just not everyone is an audiophile or actually has 'good' hearing... 

 

humans are more visually oriented, audio is more of a secondary sense - to most. 

 

 

On 3/1/2021 at 6:57 PM, Uttamattamakin said:

  Supposedly they can see Millions more colors than normal. 

Well, I haven't heard of that phenomenon yet...