What started Intel CPU shortage?

[AnalogCanavity]

I’ve known about the shortages since it’s started, and with the recent news I’m am getting more interested in it again. But none of the websites really explain in-depth of why there are shortages, so if you guys could explain it or give me some links (articles), that would be great!

 

Thanks 

[porina]

Intel's operating model was to update process and architecture in alternating generations. Process updates usually allow better density, so you do the same in a smaller area, or more for the same. That train derailed after Skylake, when their shift from 14nm to 10nm was due. As such, almost everything they made since then has been on 14nm. They can't make more CPUs as they hit their manufacturing capacity. They can't put more stuff in CPUs without making fewer of them. In essence, it has stunted their growth. The failed 10nm process was put down to being over-ambitious in their design goals. They simply couldn't get it to work. This isn't a quick or easy change to back out of. So now we're seeing limited quantity of a lesser 10nm process out, and their 7nm is close enough they're not going to go all out in rolling out 10nm.

[SupaKomputa]

High demand don't meet production capacity.

They should be at 10nm by now to get more chips from the same wafer.

[JoostinOnline]

4 minutes ago, SupaKomputa said:

High demand don't meet production capacity.

They should be at 10nm by now to get more chips from the same wafer.

What's strange to me is that there is still a high demand. I get that a company image doesn't change overnight, but it's been almost 3 years since Ryzen launched.

[SupaKomputa]

9 minutes ago, JoostinOnline said:

What's strange to me is that there is still a high demand. I get that a company image doesn't change overnight, but it's been almost 3 years since Ryzen launched.

Even if AMD stole all consumer cpu, the server market is so big, they still command 98%.

Unlike consumer that upgrade in 5 years interval, server update their hardware 2-3 years time.

Not mentioning adding more servers as the company grows.

[porina]

39 minutes ago, JoostinOnline said:

What's strange to me is that there is still a high demand. I get that a company image doesn't change overnight, but it's been almost 3 years since Ryzen launched.

Zen and Zen+ were a good catch-up, but in itself weren't really offering a good reason to displace Intel other than price. Zen 2 changes that, and a lot of the "but..." cases have been negated. In many scenarios they have now overtaken Intel at a technical level. We can see a bigger shift in manufacturer's support already.

[JoostinOnline]

1 hour ago, SupaKomputa said:

Even if AMD stole all consumer cpu, the server market is so big, they still command 98%.

Unlike consumer that upgrade in 5 years interval, server update their hardware 2-3 years time.

Not mentioning adding more servers as the company grows.

That's kinda my point. Epyc offered a much better deal than any Xeon processors. It gave an opportunity to have a big upgrade at a much lower cost, for companies who were already going to upgrade everything.

1 hour ago, porina said:

Zen and Zen+ were a good catch-up, but in itself weren't really offering a good reason to displace Intel other than price. Zen 2 changes that, and a lot of the "but..." cases have been negated. In many scenarios they have now overtaken Intel at a technical level. We can see a bigger shift in manufacturer's support already.

I understand that, but the shortage continues now that Zen 2 has almost completely surpassed what Intel has.

[SupaKomputa]

3 minutes ago, JoostinOnline said:

That's kinda my point. Epyc offered a much better deal than any Xeon processors. It gave an opportunity to have a big upgrade at a much lower cost, for companies who were already going to upgrade everything.

Only Zen 2 successfully turned die hard Intel fans heads, and buying decision for EPYC cannot come overnight.

easy decision for new server, but to replace the older one it may not reach the update cycle yet.

Most IT managers are conservative, Intel still on top of their mind.

The decision maker which is the CEO or CFO may be not be informed about tech.

[porina]

27 minutes ago, JoostinOnline said:

I understand that, but the shortage continues now that Zen 2 has almost completely surpassed what Intel has.

I think the follow up question to this is, what is the proportion of CPUs that Intel make get sold directly through retail? I don't mean as part of a product, but the CPU in a retail box. Individual builders and smaller build-to-order shops are probably not a big proportion of volume.

 

Mobile systems, server systems, desktop systems from the big name box shifters. CPUs used and sold in these were ordered long ago. Months, or even longer. Companies mass producing systems would plan ahead and order in advance. Zen 2 has only been in retail for barely a quarter. While I'm sure the big system builders had them to test in secret before that, it is still relatively new. What is AMD's ability to deliver? Look at the 3900X since launch. There was also news that some of TSMC's processes were in heavy demand, with extended wait times to get in the queue, although I think it was claimed these weren't the processes AMD were using. Still, this is a factor. If someone wanted a load of CPUs not planned well in advance, AMD can't turn on the tap overnight and get them out quickly.