Rumoured RTX 2080 Ti

Tech Enthusiast · August 17, 2018

3 hours ago, Taf the Ghost said:

Nvidia at the very high-end until 2021

The issue here:

What is now high-end, will be low-end by 2021. If AMD can't beat 2-year-old high-end, they won't beat low-end by 2021 either.

The 1080s of today will go for a lot cheaper in a month.

They really need to get in a kickass card by 2021 to even be able to get back into the market at all, since they will lose market share big time until then.

Even in the mid and low segments due to "cheap" 1080s and 1070s moving down the price range.

3 hours ago, Taf the Ghost said:

AMD will hold onto their ~35% market share in dGPUs

1

I doubt they have anywhere near that market share.

As of right now, the steam survey shows around 14%. And even if you try to factor in miners, those are no loyal customers. They buy what is best money / watt. So they will be buying 20xx cards soon enough.

Taf the Ghost · August 17, 2018

6 minutes ago, Rattenmann said:

The issue here:

What is now high-end, will be low-end by 2021. If AMD can't beat 2-year-old high-end, they won't beat low-end by 2021 either.

The 1080s of today will go for a lot cheaper in a month.

They really need to get in a kickass card by 2021 to even be able to get back into the market at all, since they will lose market share big time until then.

Even in the mid and low segments due to "cheap" 1080s and 1070s moving down the price range.

I doubt they have anywhere near that market share.

As of right now, the steam survey shows around 14%. And even if you try to factor in miners, those are no loyal customers. They buy what is best money / watt. So they will be buying 20xx cards soon enough.

Because of APUs, AMD actually sells more GPUs than Nvidia most years. Depending on the metric, AMD & Nvidia tend to trade market share by about even in general, but for dGPU sales Nvidia is between 65-75% of the market. Just depends on the generation. However, they probably have 80% of the Gaming Profit Margin.

The issue, since 2012, is the rolling chunks of GPU mining have eliminated most of two full generations of GPUs from being in the hands of the normal public. AMD sold ever GPU they produced in the last year at MSRP or better. Steam reflects a fairly small chunk of the market, but that market is normally served by Nvidia the most.

But, due to technical choices made a while ago, AMD can't just keep stacking CUs into a GCN-based architecture to compete with Nvidia at the very top of the market. Which is why Navi will come up probably in the 200-275 mm² die, perform around the range of the Vega 64 with significant reworks. It's not like AMD's RTG has been doing nothing all of this time. Sony might have been outright funding all of the R&D for Navi, but AMD has produced a bunch of Polaris designs. And they'll end up producing a bunch of Navi designs.

So AMD will bring out their Polaris replacement. It'll come in around the current 1080's performance and be somewhere under 300USD. Likely launch is Q2 2019. Considering AdoredTV's leak has been pretty accurate so far, it appears even Nvidia expects the RX 580 replacement to compete against the 2070. That's the vast bulk of the market. Depending how things stack up, they'll keep their market share and maybe win a bit more.

Of course, they'll probably be another Crypto Boom right as Nvidia's 7nm generation comes out, which means AMD cards go poof again. Because of course that would happen.