Alternative Consoles

[EmmaMay]

As we all know the Ouya company went bust because of bad management and the Retro VGS/Coleco Charmeleon project never even got off the ground, is there room for a new console these days if it had people behind it who knew what they were doing or is the industry only ever going to have Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo from now on?

[jcw150]

I have always wanted google to give it a go with a powerful android based console.

[EmmaMay]

1 minute ago, jcw150 said:

I have always wanted google to give it a go with a powerful android based console.

If I'm not mistaken I think Nvidia partnered with Google to be the official "console" (the Shield), but please don't quote me on that.

[Rupe]

I personally believe that Microsoft and Sony have the industry on lock down atm, Nintendo are dying and with the underwhelming rumors that Nintendo will be bringing out a console to match the Xbox One and PS4 in power (Nintendo NX) while the both Microsoft and Sony bring out more powerful versions of those consoles I don't think Nintendo has much life in the console market, there exclusive IPs can only get them so far. But yeah to answer your question no I think it is extremely hard for any other company to enter the market given all the exclusives these two brands have gained and all the die hard fans for each. 

[skywake]

@Rupe

I'd argue that exclusive IPs is the only thing any platform holder has anymore. And of the three Nintendo are the ones who have the most. People have been writing Nintendo off for years and it's yet to happen so I wouldn't hold my breath. And anyways, do we really want LESS players in the market? Surely what we want is more competition not less.

 

On that train of thought I'd say that the same thing would apply to anyone else who wanted to enter the market. They need to be gaming companies that have great IP or at least enough power to buy it for themselves. In terms of the raw numbers the biggest publishers in the industry right now outside of the three who have platforms are Ubisoft, Activision/Blizzard and EA. Though I think these guys are more than comfortable being on multiple platforms so I doubt it's going to happen.

 

Anyways, if I was to predict what's going to happen in the next 5+ years? I reckon Sony is going to keep going with the PS4 for as long as they can. The idea of console generations is dead. If any of the three is going to drop out of the console game it'll be Microsoft but only because I think XBox is going to dissolve into Windows. XBox will be a "service" and the XBox itself will be just one of the ways to access it. As for Nintendo I reckon Nintendo is going to try and bridge the gap between portable and non-portable gaming. They might fail but given Pokemon, Mario and Zelda are things? I wouldn't bet against them making it work.

[Rupe]

2 hours ago, skywake said:

People have been writing Nintendo off for years and it's yet to happen so I wouldn't hold my breath. And anyways, do we really want LESS players in the market?

I'm not talking about what we need, I think competition is a great thing, I would love it if some company would prove me wrong and give Microsoft and Sony a run for their money. My first console was a N64 im a massive fan.  I just don't think Nintendo can compete and their operating income is severely going down, The Wii was a hugely successful anomaly for Nintendo, yes people have been saying Nintendo are going to die for years, thats cas they are dying and the statistics show it. Let me be clear I dont think they will die necessarily they might just go the way of SEGA and only publish some of their IPs and abandon a home console, they will probably also hold onto the hand hold console market far longer as they are making far more money off of that they than are the Wii U

 

 

 

[skywake]

@Rupe

When I said people have been saying they'll die for years I meant during the period before the Wii launched. The Gamecube was the end of Nintendo, the N64 was the end of Nintendo. When the iPhone launched that was the end of Nintendo.

 

Anyways, your graph isn't really proof that Nintendo is dead. It only goes to 2014 and this year they returned to an operating profit because the Yen has strengthened. The fact that they had their first few years of an operating loss since the 80s when their product failed to sell and 1 USD got you ~80 Yen? That's not a co-incidence. Because during the early 2000s when the Gamecube was doing the same 1 USD got you ~130 Yen. If the Yen had been as bad then as it was during 2012-14? They would have made a loss during that period.

 

And you know what? Sony also had operating losses between 2012 and 2014. For similar reason. In actual fact they had operating losses from 2009 to 2015. Is Sony going to fold? Obviously not. But their financials are, relatively speaking, far worse than Nintendo's are. So if you want to argue that Nintendo is dead because of their finances then you need to also explain why Sony are ok.

[Rupe]

5 hours ago, skywake said:

@Rupe

When I said people have been saying they'll die for years I meant during the period before the Wii launched. The Gamecube was the end of Nintendo, the N64 was the end of Nintendo. When the iPhone launched that was the end of Nintendo.

 

Anyways, your graph isn't really proof that Nintendo is dead. It only goes to 2014 and this year they returned to an operating profit because the Yen has strengthened. The fact that they had their first few years of an operating loss since the 80s when their product failed to sell and 1 USD got you ~80 Yen? That's not a co-incidence. Because during the early 2000s when the Gamecube was doing the same 1 USD got you ~130 Yen. If the Yen had been as bad then as it was during 2012-14? They would have made a loss during that period.

 

And you know what? Sony also had operating losses between 2012 and 2014. For similar reason. In actual fact they had operating losses from 2009 to 2015. Is Sony going to fold? Obviously not. But their financials are, relatively speaking, far worse than Nintendo's are. So if you want to argue that Nintendo is dead because of their finances then you need to also explain why Sony are ok.

Forget about whether they are going to die or not. I believe they are going to fall from the home game market. The graph shows that every console since the N64 has sold worse than the previous barring the exception of the Wii because people dug the gimmick. Nintendo may have plateaued at the moment but if we look to the future I don't see why people would go out and buy an NX, too many already own PS4s and Xboxs its only going to as powerful as said consoles. Some will, to be fair buy it for the exclusives (the recently announced Zelda game looks awesome!) but i think what you will find is that it just wont sell that well.

Regardless of whether Sony financially did well during 2012 2014 (keep in mind they are a huge company that focuses on far more than just gaming unlike nintendo), there console sold extremely well, and they are going to be making fat dollar off it now, something you cannot say for Nintendo, and given trends their next console wont do well either.

I would like to know why your so optimistic about nintendo, what are you expecting from their next console that will mean it wont fail like the Wii U did?

 

[skywake]

@Rupe

Well for a start that graph doesn't show anything about their trends in home console sales. It shows their overall profitability over time. With the three peaks being when the SNES and Gameboy lined up, when Pokemon launched and when the Wii and DS lined up. And even if it did, why are you excluding the Wii from your supposed trend? I see no reason why the NX can't do well. Especially given that Zelda is going to be a launch title.

 

As I said earlier, if any of the three is going to drop out of the hardware game it's going to be Microsoft. Halo doesn't have the draw that it used to and they don't have much other content. Then the content that they do have is now also launching on PC. Sony isn't doing the same at all. They've pulled out of the portable space but their consoles have always done well. With Nintendo the Wii U didn't do well but they still have a whole pile of IP that does draw a crowd. They have also done relatively well with the 3DS despite all of the armchair analysts predicting the death of the portable. So Nintendo has no reason to drop out of hardware.

[Rupe]

40 minutes ago, skywake said:

@Rupe

Well for a start that graph doesn't show anything about their trends in home console sales. It shows their overall profitability over time. With the three peaks being when the SNES and Gameboy lined up, when Pokemon launched and when the Wii and DS lined up. And even if it did, why are you excluding the Wii from your supposed trend? I see no reason why the NX can't do well. Especially given that Zelda is going to be a launch title.

 

As I said earlier, if any of the three is going to drop out of the hardware game it's going to be Microsoft. Halo doesn't have the draw that it used to and they don't have much other content. Then the content that they do have is now also launching on PC. Sony isn't doing the same at all. They've pulled out of the portable space but their consoles have always done well. With Nintendo the Wii U didn't do well but they still have a whole pile of IP that does draw a crowd. They have also done relatively well with the 3DS despite all of the armchair analysts predicting the death of the portable. So Nintendo has no reason to drop out of hardware.

I agree that Nintendo in the handheld market still has life in it. Nintendos exclusives did not save the Wii U I don't think their going to save the NX, I see history repeating itself, as Microsoft and Sony bring out new more powerful consoles Nintendo brings out a console only as powerful as the previous offerings. Without any unique draw like the Wii I think it will fail. Microsoft although not as good as Sony have had good sales of the Xbox (although annoyingly microsoft has stopped releasing sale figures) certainly a step above the Wii U and their new offering is looking to be great as well (Project Scorpio), rumored to be more powerful than the PS4.5. The Wii U failed, I believe their next console will fail. Although some will, not that many will shell out for a console for those exclusives when its only able to play every other game as well as the console they already have sitting under their TV. 

Their strategy to bring out a console that is weaker than the competitors but has some desirable feature worked once, they tried again with the Wii U with the Screen Controller and it failed. Unless Nintendo can pull something unexpected out of their hat i think they will continue to struggle in the home console market.

[skywake]

@Rupe

You're making a whole pile of assumptions there. How do we know that the NX will be under-powered relative to its competitors? We don't know anything about it other than the fact that it's going to have Zelda on it. And even if it is only about on-par with the PS4 how do we know that the Neo and Project Scorpio are going to sell well? These things are marketed as being more expensive versions of boxes that have the same game library. Just because they have better specs doesn't mean people are going to stop buying the cheaper SKU.

 

Now I'm not saying that the NX will be a hit or that Project Scorpio will flop. I'm just saying we have no idea what the NX is and we certainly don't know how consumers will react to it. And making predictions about how they will all fair now is about as pointless as if you had tried to do the same in previous years. Seriously, go back and read articles from years gone by. You'll see ones before the XBox and Gamecube launched talking about how Microsoft had no chance. There are articles in 2011 about how the 3DS was doomed because of the lower price point of the Vita. This stuff is hard enough to predict when you know the specs, launch lineups and price points. We don't know any of that for this next round of hardware.....

[Rupe]

29 minutes ago, skywake said:

@Rupe

You're making a whole pile of assumptions there. How do we know that the NX will be under-powered relative to its competitors? We don't know anything about it other than the fact that it's going to have Zelda on it. And even if it is only about on-par with the PS4 how do we know that the Neo and Project Scorpio are going to sell well? These things are marketed as being more expensive versions of boxes that have the same game library. Just because they have better specs doesn't mean people are going to stop buying the cheaper SKU.

 

Now I'm not saying that the NX will be a hit or that Project Scorpio will flop. I'm just saying we have no idea what the NX is and we certainly don't know how consumers will react to it. And making predictions about how they will all fair now is about as pointless as if you had tried to do the same in previous years. Seriously, go back and read articles from years gone by. You'll see ones before the XBox and Gamecube launched talking about how Microsoft had no chance. There are articles in 2011 about how the 3DS was doomed because of the lower price point of the Vita. This stuff is hard enough to predict when you know the specs, launch lineups and price points. We don't know any of that for this next round of hardware.....

Your right we don't know what the NX will be but I believe they will continue a failing trend of weak hardware trying to rely on their exclusives. The point is many console owners will be looking for an excuse to buy a new system, I just don't think they will go for the NX. Only time will tell and if your right and if the NX does do well I will suck up my pride and admit im wrong if this is the case. I just don't see Nintendo changing their ways. I agree that there is not much point to making predictions beyond the fact that its fun to speculate, and I had a good time here . I'm open to being wrong and if I am I can join that list of people who were wrong you mentioned, but im sure there are also people who were right. It would be great if Nintendo bring out a console people want to buy. More competition is better in the end, and everyone loves Nintendo.

[skywake]

@Rupe

I didn't actually say that the NX would do well. I just said that predicting the demise of Nintendo on the back of it is a bit premature. Because Nintendo are in a pretty decent position financially and we don't even know what the NX is yet. If you ask me it's just as likely to do well as it is to fail and it's more likely than both to be somewhere in the middle.

 

Anyways, all this talk about one of the big three pulling out of the hardware game. Pretty fashionable to say that Nintendo will be the one to drop out. Which is odd given that Microsoft are the only ones publishing their games on multiple platforms.....

[Monte_Carlo]

Honestly?  I think we already have a 4th major player on the market.  Granted it isn't a specific company, but mobile has become too big to ignore for games.  I'd guess that android consoles touch on that realm to a degree. 

 

As for Nintendo dropping out?  I doubt it.  All they have to do is generate enough hype to get people excited about buying Nintendo.  Make the console powerful enough for devs to be happy, and magic will happen.  Since the Xbox One Scorpio and PS4K will be constrained by their previous versions, the NX doesn't need to overpower the newly announced hardware.  At the end of the day, Sony's financial charts look far worse, and Microsoft's restructuring has essentially hidden their losses behind monolithic divisions. The one huge benefit that Nintendo has over MS and Sony is their exclusive focus on the gaming market. (Having a monopoly on the dedicated handheld market isn't hurting them at all...)