The End of CPU Advancement on our Doorstep (Moore's Law and the 7nm Barrier) Discussion

[WallacEngineering]

29 minutes ago, straight_stewie said:

I'm sure that in 1949 there were many, many people like you who thought that we would never get the power of the ENIAC in our homes.

There is also another quite massive problem with quantum computing in our homes.

 

That is the fact that Q-Bits are required to be colled to 0 Kelvin to even process at all. Q-Bits dont settle at their natural 0 and 1 bit states until it reaches 0 kelvin.

 

So theres a good chance that even 100 years in the future, while we may have invented somewhat cheaper cooling solutions, a Q-Bit will STILL be required to be chilled to 0 Kelvin to process correctly. Its a fundamental part of how quantum computing is even physically possible to begin with. If we dont have the cooling, then we dont have quantum computing. I cant see that kind of cooling power ever beeing fessable to the masses.

 

Note: I would consider a computer available to the masses when all components can be purchased and the computer can be used for under $1000 USD (entry level obviously)

[WallacEngineering]

10 minutes ago, JoostinOnline said:

It's not. It was an observation on RATE, and it stopped being true several years ago. It doesn't matter if they double the transitors while retaining a similar cost again, the observation is no longer true and nothing can ever change that. Unless you have a time machine of course. 

Yes we understand this but its a term that people use, like the face that "dude" was a 90's surfing term but now its used all over the world despite 99% of us not being surfers.

 

Its just one of those things thats not technically correct but is done anyway. Not sure how else to explain it to you.

[straight_stewie]

29 minutes ago, WallacEngineering said:

That is the fact that Q-Bits are required to be colled to 0 Kelvin to even process at all. Q-Bits dont settle at their natural 0 and 1 bit states until it reaches 0 kelvin.

You clearly don't understand quantum mechanics at all. The qubits have no state until that state is measured. Actually, more correctly, the qubits exist in both states (a so called "superposition of both states"), until they are measured. It's actually quite a bit more complicated than that, because the act of measuring one changes it's state. This is where entanglement comes in: If we know how a rotation of one particle causes an entangled particle to rotate, we can measure the rotation of one particle and infer the state of the other, but not of the one we actually measured. Of course, it's actually quite a bit more complicated than that, but that is where our trip down the rabbit hole ends.

Entanglement is what brings cooling into play: In order for particles to maintain the entanglement they must have very low energy. Intense cooling is also necessary for a few other reasons, but none of them are what you said. Besides, a basic understanding of physics would yield the knowledge that 0 degrees Kelvin means that there is no particle motion, and therefore, a machine that relies on the motion of particles for computation cannot compute.

Also, this:
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2130210-nanofridge-could-keep-quantum-computers-cool-enough-to-calculate/

[maleko48]

15 minutes ago, WallacEngineering said:

There is also another quite massive problem with quantum computing in our homes.

 

That is the fact that Q-Bits are required to be colled to 0 Kelvin to even process at all. Q-Bits dont settle at their natural 0 and 1 bit states until it reaches 0 kelvin.

 

So theres a good chance that even 100 years in the future, while we may have invented somewhat cheaper cooling solutions, a Q-Bit will STILL be required to be chilled to 0 Kelvin to process correctly. Its a fundamental part of how quantum computing is even physically possible to begin with. If we dont have the cooling, then we dont have quantum computing. I cant see that kind of cooling power ever beeing fessable to the masses.

 

Note: I would consider a computer available to the masses when all components can be purchased and the computer can be used for under $1000 USD (entry level obviously)

I generally agree with this line of thinking for the most part, but I can't help playing devil's advocate here also, haha.

A good question is: when will the next breakthrough in synthetic refrigerants come and will they ever be able to approach cooling hardware to the levels needed but implemented in something as seamless/hands-off as say, a sealed system in a modern refrigerator? I used to service refrigeration systems and even did a school presentation a while back on the history of refrigeration, and this conversation got me thinking how far refrigeration has come over the years, in quite a similar fashion as the above mentioned ENIAC example. So I guess what I am saying is, "never say never".

Who is to say computers won't become something more akin to the economic/commitment prospect of an automobile or some other large investment/installation that people have installed in their homes (think, taking up an entire small-ish room in their house) in the future to provide their entire family's computing needs from a single computer in a central location that streams to all their lightweight-low-powered-computing peripheral devices in their life while taking up the bulk of the heavy processing required?

All said, I doubt computing will realistically head in that direction, but again, who knows?

[WallacEngineering]

11 minutes ago, straight_stewie said:

You clearly don't understand quantum mechanics at all...

Yes I understand how Quantum physics work I just didnt feel the need to get into details with people from this community since most are already aware:

 

(Basics video for those unaware)

 

[WallacEngineering]

11 hours ago, RLX Overlord said:

Yeah haha I haven't forumed in ages, me did forgot how done the internet.

Well welcome back dude!

[WallacEngineering]

9 hours ago, maleko48 said:

Who is to say computers won't become something more akin to the economic/commitment prospect of an automobile or some other large investment/installation that people have installed in their homes (think, taking up an entire small-ish room in their house) in the future to provide their entire family's computing needs from a single computer in a central location that streams to all their lightweight-low-powered-computing peripheral devices in their life while taking up the bulk of the heavy processing required?

This would be really cool but Im pretty sure in any reality at any time, owning a computing system so powerful that it takes up an entire room would be quite costly.

 

I guess you're right about "never say never", but still its not like quantum computing is even relavant to the problem being discussed within this thread because we are discussing what to do in 2020-2022 when silicon and transistors comes to an end. We arent talking about 50 years or whatever later, we are talking about like right around the corner.

 

This is why my personal idea is to save up a large sum of cash and build a PC with the most powerful 7nm-based i7, i9, R7, or R-Threadripper CPU, twin modern GPUs, build it inside of a case I truly adore and want to spend a good chunk of money on, as well as CableMod cables and all the other nice accessories to make it a truly badass build that I will be quite happy with as technology advancements either slow down to an extremely slow rate, or stop all together for awhile.

 

My old AM3 Phenom II build lasted for about a decade (3 years on my posession) and all the hardware still works perfectly today. I think that it is quite probable given the durability of modern hardware to build a stellar system that could last you an entire generation so long as you go easy on the OC and dont load your PSU to 100% constantly.

[RLX Overlord]

15 hours ago, straight_stewie said:

I don't see how you can draw the connection that because they are logically different they can't reside in the same plastic and metal package...? 

For daily computing activities a quantum computer is less than useless, it is unusable. So if your logic is to hold, it's most likely that we will never see widespread use of quantum computing outside of industry.

Given their extremely different operation requirements, it's far less productive to mesh them together in the same chip, yes.  It would be more likely to see a quantum processor in the form of a PCIe card in the future.

[WallacEngineering]

So I was looking at the new roadmap for AMD that was released when Ryzen 2000 was announced.

 

Does anyone else find it very odd that AMD is actually jumping ahead of Intel next year, bypassing 10nm and going straight to 7nm? Especially giving the impending end of silicon as we know it?

 

It would just make a whole lot more sense to try 10nm, then 7nm, then 7nm+ to extend silicon life out another year, don't you think?

 

Its not like these are just rumors either. In January 2018, AMD announced that the 7nm-based Zen 2 chips were at the "design completed" phase. Pretty sure AMD wouldn't be saying this if it were not true.

 

More worryingly, it looks like mobile phone advancements will be hitting a brick wall even sooner, seeing as the new Qualcomm SnapDragon 845 SOC already uses a CPU that is based on the 10nm manufacturing process.