Looking ahead to the next Generation (Beyond 40series/ i13x)

cmr99508 · July 10, 2022

Budget (including currency): $1500-$2000 (Not including GPU)

Country: USA

Games, programs or workloads that it will be used for: VR gaming, VR Coding, Data Compiling

Other details (what resolution and refresh rate you want to play at, etc):

existing parts lists: 1600w psu

Perprhrials: Nothing new

Upgrading from: Ryzen 9 3900, 64GB (don't ask) GDDR4, 2070 GPU (miracle buy during the shortage), motherboard is either a 570 or 590 (I can't find the box and don't remember which)

Looking to buy: As soon as the next series' comes out after 2022

Resolution/RR: Nicer is better, but it'd mean more to me that I can play games on a reasonable graphics level and compile data and code

I suppose the first statement is: with the recent video regarding the death of x86 computing, this is assuming that I have anything to build with. That, more than anything else is the biggest reason I posted this. I would like to build a PC while I still can, but seeing as I finally got myself a computer built recently I can't reasonably expect to upgrade in a short timeframe. That being said, does anyone with PC building experience see a problem with waiting another generation for it to come out, or should I sell my soul to the Visa, Mastercard, and Banking gods and get "the last x86 ever"?

brob · July 10, 2022

The death of mainframes has been predicted for nearly half a century. New models are still being introduced and sold. Why would PC be any different?

14th gen Intel is already in engineering samples. 15th gen, Arrow Lake will drop in 2024 according to Intel. To paraphrase Samuel Clements, the reports of PC death have been grossly exaggerated.

maartendc · July 11, 2022

18 hours ago, cmr99508 said:

I suppose the first statement is: with the recent video regarding the death of x86 computing, this is assuming that I have anything to build with. That, more than anything else is the biggest reason I posted this. I would like to build a PC while I still can, but seeing as I finally got myself a computer built recently I can't reasonably expect to upgrade in a short timeframe. That being said, does anyone with PC building experience see a problem with waiting another generation for it to come out, or should I sell my soul to the Visa, Mastercard, and Banking gods and get "the last x86 ever"?

Don't really know if I understand this question. Why would x86 desktop PC's stop existing exactly?

There is a huge ecosystem of PC's that rely on X86, every office computer, production computer, etc. in the world relies on it. Thousands of software applications rely on x86. It will be around for a LONG time yet (decade or more at least).

Additionally, every gaming desktop in existence is X86. I don't see ARM or anyone else catching up anytime soon to replace the combination of Intel / AMD + Nvidia / AMD. The GPU performance of a Apple M2 for example still cannot match or exceed the raw power of those combinations. They are more energy efficient, but that isn't a huge problem for desktops.

The only thing I can think of is the widespread adoption of cloud gaming like Xbox Game Pass + streaming. But Google Stadia has shown that not every type of game lends itself towards that, and latency is always going to be a problem. We are going to need much faster connections with much lower latency before Cloud Gaming will kill off console and desktop ownership.

So no, save your money, you will still be able to build a desktop in 5 years time. Even thinking of upgrading with your current rig is kind of absurd.

thewelshbrummie · July 11, 2022

On 7/10/2022 at 1:07 PM, cmr99508 said:

should I sell my soul to the Visa, Mastercard, and Banking gods and get "the last x86 ever"?

TLDR - don't assume that everything posted on Youtube is factual, accurate, or more specifically likely to happen imminently. And save your money, we're some way from x86 ending, if that ever happens.

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If we are to assume that x86 is dead as of today, then businesses would still have a 3-5 year replacement cycle - those computers aren't just going to be thrown out immediately at the best of times, and certainly not when inflation is at its highest for over 30 years. At the absolute earliest x86 may not be a thing in 2030 but I seriously doubt even that.

The point in the video is that Apple's current computers are built like appliances are - you get what you pay for and that's it, no upgrading or replacement of parts. But that's Apple, whose share on desktop/laptop sales has been between 10%-15% for the last decade. It hasn't really changed significantly (e.g. like Google Chrome's market share over the same period). Desktops aren't like that on Intel/AMD systems, in that obviously you can replace and upgrade the majority of desktops. Until Windows on Arm becomes competitive I can't see x86 going anywhere - Chromebooks don't count as they're not widely used in corporate environments and the market will adjust to what is required at that level.

And that's before we actually look at what you already have - which is 2-3 years old at most and remains relevant. Stick with what you have for now and consider looking again in late 2023 when AM5 has had a year to mature and Intel launches 14th gen, and you might have a meaningful upgrade on your hands. Even then, take your time - my 9 year old 4th Gen Intel build is still hanging on & we're really at the point that 5-7 years from a build is realistic.

cmr99508 · July 11, 2022

Thanks guys for your feedback. I very much appreciate it.

The video I was referring to was LTT's "Build a Computer While You Still Can" and so I figured the best place to look would be the same community. I'll be holding off for now (at least for the next few generations) and going from there.

Vid link: