AMD Zen 2 "Matisse" 2019 Could Hit the 7nm Barrier???

[WallacEngineering]

I have been planning on upgrading my currently VERY outdated PC (See my signature for more info) once the Ryzen 2 refresh CPUs hit the shelves in Late April - Early May 2018. However, upon doing research on the internet about the Ryzen 2 CPUs and what to expect, I came across a very interesting article that may prompt me to simply hold off and deal with my older hardware until 2019 or even 2020.

 

The Article: https://www.pcworld.com/article/3246211/computers/amd-reveals-ryzen-2-threadripper-2-7nm-navi-and-more-in-ces-blockbuster.html

 

Now there is one important point I want to make clear from the start: The 2000 series AMD CPUs coming in April 2018 are NOT Zen 2 architecture CPUs, but rather Zen+, a refreshed version of the Zen 1 CPUs such as the Ryzen 7 1800X. The official Zen 2 architecture, according to AMD; is not due to release until NEXT year, 2019.

 

The article above suggests that the Zen 3 architecture of 2020 will be the one to implement 7nm manufacturing, but some sites rumor the 7nm process to come to Zen 2 in 2019.

 

So why does this information make me want to wait for Zen 2 or Zen 3? The answer is simple: Moore's Law. For those of you who are not aware, Moore's Law is the statement that one day, the transistor manufacturing process will get so small, that consumer-grade CPUs and other electronics will no longer advance. This law is expected to take effect once 7nm manufactured CPUs hit the market, and the reason this law is expected to be correct is because manufacturing anything smaller than 7nm transistors would require insane technologies that will be so expensive to implement, that 99% of consumers would find the cost too high and simply decide to keep their older hardware. For example, the 5nm process is expected to LITERALLY require a freaking particle accelerator to create transistors that small. This would translate to EXTREMELY HIGH costs to purchase CPUs, GPUs, or other hardware based on this 5nm process.

 

If you are complaining about the $1000+ GTX 1080 Ti GPUs due to crypto currency today, you probably wont believe your eyes when you see just how expensive 5nm technology is expected to be. Now pricing on these future technologies can only be guessed at, as there aren't even rumors yet about what the pricing could be, but I have a guess. Try Intel Celeron or Pentium grade CPUs costing more than $400, with higher end i7 and Ryzen 7 CPUs costing more than $1200. As a reference, Imagine an Intel i3-8350K that costs around $600, or an i9-7900K that costs around $2500. Now imagine a Ryzen 5 2400G that costs around $600 or a Ryzen Threadripper 1950X that costs about $2500. At these prices, just about anyone would be reluctant to upgrade at all. This is what Moore's Law explains. It's not that technology will stop advancing, of course not; but rather that it becomes so expensive, that MOST consumers basically stop upgrading their Desktop and Laptop computers. This would also translate into other items in life stopping advancements a few years later. Cars already have Wide-Screen, HD TVs as their dashboards in higher end vehicles, and can do things like actively raise or lower your ride height depending on your needs; plus Google has already successfully tested it's self-driving car last year. There was also a scientific test that was recently done that shows the fact that the human eye is unable to see the difference in 1440p and 4K resolutions from anything more than 3-4 inches away from the screen, meaning that purchasing anything higher than a 1440p display is technically just a waste of money.

 

Another piece of interesting evidence that points to the likelihood of Moore's Law being on our doorstep, is the fact that Intel recently struck a deal with Federal Governments where Intel supplies $5 Billion USD as well as Federal Governments supplying another $5 Billion USD in Research and Development to Global Foundries for the 10nm manufacturing process because Global Foundries themselves admitted to "having issues" with manufacturing 10nm transistors. This will probably translate into 10nm-based CPUs seeing a substantial price increase over previously "normal" generation-to-generation CPU price increases.

 

The point is, consumer-grade electronics are getting to the point that soon, there will be nowhere left to go, or at least nowhere to advance that is considered a worthwhile investment to the average consumer. So why then would I want to hold off on building my new PC? Once again, the answer is simple: Value. If I hold off until 10nm or 7nm CPUs are available and then complete my build based off that technology, I could, theoretically; build a PC that will remain relevant, up to date, and keep pace with the VAST MAJORITY of the PC enthusiast community for 10, 20, or even 30 years. For those of you concerned with Price-To-Performance ratio, this will be your time to shine.

 

I would personally recommend you dish out the extra cash and build a Ryzen 7/ Intel Core i7 or i9 higher-end build in 2019-2020 to get the absolute maximum future proof-ness while keeping costs RELATIVELY acceptable ($2000-$3000 range). This build should also feature other high-end components such as NVME M.2 SSD(s) and 32GB + RAM to ensure that upcoming software can be run flawlessly.

 

Now of course all of this is pure speculation but it is widely accepted throughout the tech community that the 7nm manufacturing process is most likely to become the official "Moore's Law" or "Wall" or "Barrier" that marks the end of consumer upgrades. What are your thoughts regarding Moore's Law and the 7nm manufacturing process? I am happy, or at least tolerant, of my current rig's performance, so should I wait for Zen 2/3? I think this discussion could get very interesting...

[NMS]

Good read!

 

But if you have the money and your PC is that old, I'd still go for Zen or Zen+ when it comes out. Not to mention that Zen 2 might bring to the table same compatability issues as current generation thus making you wait even longer for everything to stabilize.

[WallacEngineering]

1 minute ago, NMS said:

Good read!

 

But if you have the money and your PC is that old, I'd still go for Zen or Zen+ when it comes out. Not to mention that Zen 2 might bring to the table same compatability issues as current generation thus making you wait even longer for everything to stabilize.

I am definitely considering it. However, I am supposed to be moving and starting life anew in an entirely different state come the end of April. If I do not find good paying, stable work, then I will be holding off and waiting for Moore's law to build my ultimate PC.