Canoe

Depends on if you have a choice on getting laid off or not, if you're in a vulnerable group or not, and if you're an asshole or not. A lot of people are stepping up to the plate to help.

China's NHC daily update for March 26, 2020 This is where I get my daily data for China, and apply it to the day it refers to. CSSE and others show the prior day's data for china... And the CSSE's git data still applies China's data to the day after it actually applies to. But then they've got corrupt data in that, and multiple notices of such reported on git, but the data still remains uncorrected. I had to give up using their data files. Google translate. Interestingly, the english wording sometimes changes if you drop in the whole text from above, vs by paragraph or by sentence. At 04:00 on March 26, 54 newly diagnosed imported cases were reported (17 in Shanghai, 12 in Guangdong, 4 in Beijing, 4 in Tianjin, 3 in Inner Mongolia, 3 in Zhejiang, 3 in Fujian, and 2 in Shandong. , 2 in Yunnan, 1 in Liaoning, 1 in Jiangsu, 1 in Sichuan, and 1 in Shaanxi). As of 24:00 on March 26, a total of 595 overseas confirmed confirmed cases had been reported. *** The first case is occurring widely now across the globe. Which is why Confirmed numbers are now "at least as high as". Very short sighted as identification of clusters and the need for distancing/lockdown measures is delayed, hence needs to be significantly harsher. Some places are doing so just to keep reported numbers down for political or tourist optics... So far, that has blown up in each place that has been tried. Just check the numbers for Italy and the U.S.. Other places, due to a limited testing capacity, the test is conserved for others if there will be no clinical benefit for the treatment of that case. The second, hiding deaths, is also known in a number of places. Some cities or provinces in China were caught doing the same. The first case can be gotten around where deaths are reasonably reported and the infection is sufficiently presenting such that Deaths are accumulating in (hate to use this word) reasonable numbers. Using what the expected CFR should eventually come in around, Deaths can be used to calculate what the size of the infected population that is producing the reported deaths. For example, Italy's Deaths as of today are reported as 9,134. Using a CFR of 3.6% for a highly stressed health care system, and deaths lag, the expected infected Confirmed population size would be in the order of 422,000. They report 86,498 Confirmed. Their people are paying a huge price for the central government halting the local authorities' testing and tracing contacts early in the outbreak there.

"Did people listen to that warning." "Basically no."

Global distribution of COVID-19 cases, March 26, 2020 EOD UTC just the scaled sizes

A super-spreading event in India, similar to what South Korea had with that one woman

Fatality Rate, China China reports show the majority of its cases Resolved. China 95.7% Resolved Hubei 95.7% Wuhan 94.2% non-Hubei 95.8% For those Resolved cases, their CFR is: China 4.23% Hubei 4.89% Wuhan 5.38% non-Hubei 0.91% The provinces other than Hubei were already seeded but had a small number of cases when they were warned about the disease, so they could take measures to contain it. Just like the rest of the world had notice when it was a mix of seeded and when/before they had a small or tiny number or no cases. The Global Crude Fatality Rate is 4.53%. The External Deaths of 20,774 is greater than what the max accumulated deaths should eventually be, so we know that Confirmed is grossly understated. Using a final CFR of 2.5% percent, the External infected population would be at least 1.3 Million people. At that CFR of 2.5%, Global Deaths are projected to 39,576. Using the overwhelmed CFR of 3.6%, Global Deaths are projected to ~43,000. Those numbers are based on March 26 numbers for the infected population at that time, and do not include any projection for spread of the infection.

I do my EOD to UTC. So the U.S. and others are done their day yet, but here's the graph of Deaths. Confirmed is too variable. Testing was delayed too far and is still playing catchup, or isn't widely available yet. The bulk of deaths were occuring in the third week of the course of the disease. Deaths lag infections. This means it is expected that Deaths will be accumulating for a while before the social distancing measures start to show, due to Deaths lagging infection. The graph has straight lines showing the slopes for Deaths to Double: in 1 day, 2 days, 1 week, to 8 weeks. You can see how China curved and went flat. South Korea isn't flat, but is holding to a low slope double every ~two weeks. Spain and Italy are easy to see, and Iran seems to be following China, but there's some doubt on numbers. France is heading right up the Doubles-every-three-days, which is what the average of all of the External (non-China) Deaths shows as heading up, then starting to curve towards flat ~nine days ago. The U.S. is driving right up the early External path too, with a trend line showing its Deaths are slightly less than doubling every three days. The others are really too low in count yet to really be able to trust a character of their slope.

I remember when they used to try and feed you a meal on a one hour hop. What a cluster-f. My first flight across the atlantic, the plane had props. And the seats facing forward faced those seats facing backwards with a tabel in between.

I can't remember if I've seen this here yet.

This could be rather difficult. Low frequencies can travel some distance from their source before people hear them. Like someone hating the boom of the stereo from the apartment above, but up to their door and no stereo, no boom. Offending stereo was three floors up. Given the harmonic to line mains, for safety you may want to do a walk about of your building to see where the transformer is and where the electrical line comes in. Can you detect any noise near or far from the transformer. A call to the provider may be in order. Sound travels through air easily, but vibration can travel through solids well, until the vibration modulates a surface, like drywall or plaster, and generates sound from that vibration. Motors love making vibration noise as they start to go. Or the bearings of something they're driving.

*** Wow last to the stage, already on top USA tops Italy, and China, in Confirmed and Active cases. Deaths & Recovered lag. USA 82,612 Confirmed, 79,564 Active, 1,184 Deaths, 1,864 Recovered China 82,037 Confirmed, 4,450 Active, 3,293 Deaths, 74,202 Recovered Italy 80,589 Confirmed, 62,013 Active, 8,215 Deaths, 10,361 Recovered

Italy might be showing some promise. Doesn't look very encouraging with the first graph. The slope of the tangent looks encouraging in the log graph. The last four days could be interpreted as a six-day slope, maybe seven. Certainly better than its two-day slope. That's been a common theme with the researchers since shortly after January 21st. It's likely with us to stay. Be it cyclic or seasonal.