urdaneta88

On that point i disagree. I think being transparent is communicate the problems that are facing. Maybe like you said, a week of "No update" doesn't have any meaningful information, but checking that the last update was Sep 18, and we "have" the update here in the forum, and not all the rest of the buyers. That, to me is a lack of communication, that make everybody upset or disappointed.

It's here!!! My order shipped Oct 21

Finally!!!!
 

It's here!!! My order shipped Oct 21

On that point i disagree. I think being transparent is communicate the problems that are facing. Maybe like you said, a week of "No update" doesn't have any meaningful information, but checking that the last update was Sep 18, and we "have" the update here in the forum, and not all the rest of the buyers. That, to me is a lack of communication, that make everybody upset or disappointed.

There’s been no ‘official’ update emailed since a month ago, a good number of people who ordered either don’t know/didn’t know or for whatever other reason about the forums to come check all the time, I know they are working hard, but a lot of the people would have just liked to have something official or the web page updated to reflect the fact we are passed the beginning of the month and they are still working through port delays or what ever, people just like to hear anything, but like you said, some people would still be unhappy unless Linus flew in to personally hand them the bag, there’s no winning it all

On that point i disagree. I think being transparent is communicate the problems that are facing. Maybe like you said, a week of "No update" doesn't have any meaningful information, but checking that the last update was Sep 18, and we "have" the update here in the forum, and not all the rest of the buyers. That, to me is a lack of communication, that make everybody upset or disappointed.

As some have already mentioned here, all wave 1 (and most/all of wave 2) shipping notifications should be sent out by today 🙂 we appreciate your patience along the way here.
 
This process wound up being a bit crazier than we had hoped. Backpacks were supposed to arrive in relative "waves" with about 10,000 pieces arriving at a time, which would have given our distributor ample time to receive, sort, and ship in a timely manner.
 
Instead, due to port delays and other logistics issues, we've received about 25,000 in the span of 7 days, which has been extremely difficult to manage at our facility.
 
I've been in close contact with the team throughout the process, and the thing we've clarified above all else is that shipping in order is top priority, and that has been confirmed time and time again. There has been some discussion around some wave 2 & 3 backpacks shipping before wave 1. Based on our direction, this should only be happening in cases where those "wave 2 or 3" bags are actually wave 1 buyers who have had to change address (unfortunately due to tax compliance we have to actually cancel & re-order each time someone required an address change). I need to look into this a bit more on my side to ensure that is the only time that these out of order shipments have happened, as anything outside of that would certainly be a mistake.
 
Due to a few changes in how they have printed labels, there were a number of shipments which received notifications out of order, but we've maintained throughout the process that shipments should happen in order no matter what.
 
Overall, definitely a lot of lessons learned through the process, and I'll be working on improving our systems moving forward to better manage process & communication in a situation like this in the future.
 
The team is still working hard to get all pending backpack orders out as quickly as possible. Hopefully all pending shipments will start to see updates very soon, though that obviously depends on a few parties outside of our control (UPS, USPS, etc.) and their processing times.
 
I'll try to check in throughout the next few days here and answer any pending questions as they come up.

Me too, my order was 334XXX, hope they shipped soon 

Lets all hope, that things are starting to move...

We should hear something by tomorrow 

Introduction
For the past few months, I have been working on a small project on learning how to code and play with difference pieces of software and technologies.
Using python to web scrap data several times an hour, at first running locally to putting the code on a NAS running Unraid to host the docker container, I was able to collect data on the LTT backpack and LTT screwdriver. Namely, on the website you would see:
 

 
There are #### screwdrivers remaining in wave X.
or
There are #### backpacks remaining in wave X.
However, on October 13, 2022, the LTT store updated its website and from a quick glance, it seems that the screwdriver data has been consolidated into a single number. Therefore, I thought that now would be a good time to share what I have gathered.
 
Data
I collected data on the backpack from 2022-08-19 to 2022-10-13 (55 days)
and
I collected data on the screwdriver from 2022-08-30 to 2022-10-13 (44 days).
 
I lost about 10 hours of screwdriver data on October 30 and about 1 to 2 days worth of data on October 8 and October 9.
In terms of data collection frequency, I started to collect data on the backpack about every 15 minutes until September 10th, when I started collecting data every 5 minutes. For the screwdriver, I started off collecting data every 5 minutes.
One last note: I am making the assumption that if it said “There are 12345 backpacks remaining…” and then 5 minutes later it said “There are 12340 backpacks remaining…”, then that means 5 backpacks were ordered in 5 minutes. I’ll be referring to these are “orders” moving forward.
 
Overall Statistics (Backpack)
Let's look at backpack orders over time (note the data anomalies mentioned above):
 

 
Over the course of 55 days the quantity of backpacks went from 19,300 to 15,188, for a total change of 4,112, which is roughly about 75 backpacks per day. However, averages do tend to hide certain pieces of information, so if we look at the figure below, we see that backpack sales tapered off somewhere in late September.
 

 
We can also see a spike occurred towards the end of August also.
If we look at sales during the day of the week, it's pretty clear that most of the sales occurred on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. However, these data are skewed due to the high sales that occurred on August 30 and August 31, Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.
 

 
We can breakdown the data by quantities in a 5 minute window. It is possible to make a strong assumption and say that at most, only one order can be place every 5 minutes but it is highly possible that 2 or more orders can be placed in a 5 minute window. In either case, if we assume only one order every 5 minutes (this is thus only using data when it was collected every 5 minutes: September 10 to October 13), then we see the following distribution:
Order Qty
Count
Cancels: -6
1
Cancels: -5
1
Cancels: -4
2
Cancels: -3
14
Cancels: -2
41
Cancels: -1
184
No Orders
6,063
Order: 1
1,031
Order: 2
112
Order: 3
13
Order: 4
1
 
Obviously most of the times there is no change but we see that the majority of the orders are for a quantity of 1. We actually also see some negative quantities. These “could” be order cancellations. We can see if there is a pattern to these order cancellations:
 

 
However, it seems that there isn’t really a pattern.
 
Overall Statistics (Screwdriver)
One important note about the screwdriver data. The screwdriver data scrapped isn’t actually what was displayed on the website but instead was scrapped from the source code. However, I noticed that when the number on the website decreased, so did one of the four values in the source code (more to come).
 
Let's look at raw screwdriver data over time (note that data anomalies mentioned above):
 

 
Over the course of 44 days, we see the quantity of screwdrivers went from 65,600 to 49,991, for a total change of 15,609.
 
There are few interesting things to note:
 
While the starting point of my data was 65,600, there was actually a "jump" in quantity on September 2, where it jumped to 80,021; this should be clear in the graph above. By taking the summation in reverse, we can adjust, which is shown in the graph below:
 

 
One guess is that perhaps there was an increase number of screwdrivers that would be manufactured and the quantity in the source code was adjusted upwards then. However, just a far out guess.
 
We can now see that the total order of screwdrivers over 55 days is 65,555 and not 15,609.
 
Secondly, there seems to be a large drop in quantity around August 31. I’m not sure of the reason for that dip. I’m guessing that there is a correlation with the drop for the backpack also.
 
Thirdly, what isn't shown in the graph above is the change in quantity again. While there was only one backpack, there are 4 different variants of the screwdriver. Sometime on September 21, there was a change in the underlying data where the quantity shifted but the overall total remained the same. This is clear in the graph below:
 

 
You see that that the quantities for “type_2” and “type_4” drastically decreased on September 21. My guess would be that this is due to a future decrease in production of the screwdriver with the black shaft as I believe LMG said that they won’t be producing a lot of screwdrivers with the black shaft. However, again, this is just a guess.
 
Below, I look at overall orders by day.
 

 
We see that Wednesday completely surpasses the other days. When looking at the raw data, there are quite a few orders that occurred on August 31, which we can see in the quantity drops in the first 2 graphs. The graph below omits the data prior to September 2 due to the jump and rapid decrease in quantity, so that we can perhaps see a trend (maybe?):
 

 
We see that unlike the backpack, the screwdriver orders seem to have occurred on the weekends.
 
We can also breakdown the orders by day by type:
 

 
It’s clear that “type_3” was ordered the most by far with “type_4” and “type_1” very close behind. It’s hard to tell by the graph above but the table below makes it clearer:
 
type_1
type_2
type_3
type_4
Sunday
1,306
989
2,273
1,300
Monday
909
646
1,756
913
Tuesday
836
582
1,616
816
Wednesday
751
544
1,502
861
Thursday
667
413
1,499
677
Friday
636
429
1,194
665
Saturday
1,390
986
2,412
1,451
Grand Total
6,495
4,589
12,252
6,683
 
Following similarly what was done with the backpack, we can see what is the most common quantity of screwdrivers ordered:
 

 
Interestingly, we see multiple orders for multiple screwdrivers. Again, this is a strong assumption of one order per 5 minutes, so this would be the upper bound of the number of screwdrivers per order.
 
And below is a similar graph broken up by type:
 

 
Finally, looking at cancellations, there does not seem to be a clear pattern:
 

 
Conclusion
This was a little project that I have been working on in my spare time to familiarize myself with some of the different software and technologies that I had access too. Instead of keeping all the results/data, I thought it would be a fun exercise to share.
All errors are my own. Thanks for reading.

Both of them are able to power two 760 in SLI, and they are both a Seasonic X KM3 unit. Between the two, I would go with the v700 due to the higher quality FDB fan (the XFX actually uses a cheaper 2BB fan than the one that is on the actual Seasonic models and Corsair models).

Thanks for the answer

Like i said my budget is 1500$, and i'd like the sabertooth for the slick looks, the durability and the long guaranty. The more silence possible, better...