Hey guys,
I've read content creators' predictions about the Nintendo Switch replacement, which everyone seems to be on the edge of their seats for, I thought it would be fun to post my own guesses for posterity's sake on what this thing will look like. Feel free to tell me I'm wrong or post your own predictions in the thread. Based on the rumors and leaks, and the current state of technology in early 2023, I think there’s a sane conclusion about what the next generation Nintendo Hardware console like. I’ve followed others' speculation closely and I’m surprised no one else has made the same points, maybe I'm way off base, in which case roast away. With the caveat that this is all speculation, here goes:
The Name:
Nintendo isn’t going to call it the Switch 2/Switch Pro. Why? While maintaining the product line brand name across generations worked for the Gameboy and DS, they’ve since been burned by the consumer confusion about the Wii U, and so I think they will be more cautious this time, and thus give their next-gen console a new name entirely. My prediction is the Nintendo Mix or the Nintendo Merge. (Name will be explained next)
The Gimmick:
I haven't seen anyone else predict a gimmick, but Nintendo has had a gimmick with the past several generations of home gaming hardware, they won’t give up having a gimmick:
-GameCube: 3D gaming (never released)
-Wii: Motion Controls
-DS: Dual Screens
-3DS: Glasses-Free 3D
-Wii U: the Wii U Gamepad
-Switch: docked/on the go gaming/removeable controllers
I predict the gimmick for the next generation will be mixed/augmented reality. (Hence mix/merge) Why? Two reasons, (1) Nvidia advertises Orin as being optimized/useful for machine vision, and (2) the Mario Kart Live toy smelled like Nintendo testing the waters of mixed reality development. To make this happen, my bet is there will be Windows Hello/Kinect Style Cameras on both the front and back of the next-gen console. Those devices will interact with AR cards provided as a pack in with the console (like the Nintendo 3DS), and my assumption is there will be other more elaborate devices that are compatible, like Amiibo. You will be able to look at the real world through the Merge's screen and see virtual characters interact with it, through machine vision, and the AR cards.
The Hardware:
My guess is the Nintendo Merge will look recognizably similar to a Nintendo Switch, but with cameras added on the front and back of the device. The Joy-Cons will remain, but now with a actual camera on at least one Joy-Con as well as IR lights or retro reflectors to enable the Merge to accurately measure where the joy-cons are relative to the console. To share the mixed reality gimmick, my bet is the dock includes hardware of similar performance and spec to a Amazon HD Fire Stick, enough for low-latency 1080P gaming via a direct Wi-Fi connection between the two devices, enabling players to move the console around the room with the console's screen streamed to the TV. In this vein, I could also imagine Nintendo offering a streaming stick instead of a dock, there's just no need for the dock with a wireless connection. The joy-cons will remain, but a little more optimized for single player in terms of ergonomics compared to the Switch Joy-cons.
The Merge 4K:
the truth is that 1080P vs 4K doesn’t matter that much at couch distance, even more so for typical Nintendo customers. But the Press (and the nerds like those of us on this forum!) are into 4K and I could see Nintendo not wanting to get bad press for releasing a console that doesn't support 4K. There is probably currently a conflicting internal debate at Nintendo as to whether they should make the console more expensive so all devices sold support 4K, or whether they should sell 2 versions of the console at launch like Microsoft, which Nintendo seems adverse to doing.
-If Nintendo can build the Merge 4K for <$350: they will, in which case there will only be *one* Nintendo Merge. My guess is that users will have the choice of plugging their Merge into their Dock to play at 4K 60 FPS or streaming the game at 1080P 60 FPS. This makes sense as the kinds of games that are best suited for wireless streaming (mixed-reality games where moving the Merge around is part of the game) are going to be less visually intensive, and the lack of 4K will not be a big deal. I mean *maybe* it’s possible to do low latency 4k 60 FPS with H.265 (Orin doesn’t support AV1 encoding), but it’s still iffy. But they more likely stream at 1080P 60 FPS (or heck 1200p-1400p or something) and then upscale that image, and all the most hardcore pixel peepers wouldn't notice.
-If Nintendo can't make $350/Merge 4K work, they will sell a downcosted version that doesn't support 4K output. To make things easy for developers, the downcosted "HD" version will have the same Nvidia Orin SOC as the 4K Merge, the difference will be that the Merge HD will come with a more basic wireless streaming dongle *without* the option to plug the Switch in for 4K video, and the 4K version will come with a more advanced dock that supports 4K video. This setup also allows users to buy the $300 console now, and buy the ~$120 upgraded 4K dock later if they want to. To sweeten the deal, Nintendo might include a 4K upscaler chip to make "4K" wireless streaming practical and to better justify the price jump. Marseille, who is the best known entity who makes such a chip, has been awfully quiet for the last couple years, maybe that’s what they have been working on!
Pricing and release date:
My bet is it comes out in the first half of 2024. We just aren't seeing *any* leaks which indicates to me they aren't on a 2023 production timeline. In terms of pricing, if they can't sell the Merge 4K for $350, I think the lineup will look like this:
$299: Nintendo Merge (no dock!)
$379: Nintendo Merge + HD Stream Stick/Dock
$449: Nintendo Merge 4K + Dock
*later*
$229-$249: Nintendo Merge Lite
What * might* happen with the Merge:
Hacking Wifi 7: I could see Nintendo repurposing wifi 7 chipsets, which unlike previous generations, can simultaneously transmit on 2.4, 5 and 6 ghz to transmit the video signal to the dock over 6 ghz while saving 2.4 and 5 for online connectivity. This would make wirelessly streaming 4K video at least somewhat possible.
Camera Bar: to allow multi-use of the sensors, my guess is Nintendo will design some experiences around having the Merge docked front and center below the TV with clear view of the players, there may be cases where this is impractical (like you want to stash the dock behind a cabinet door like I personally do with my Switch) to fix this, I bet there will be an optional USB webcam with the same cameras that the Merge has that you can plug into the dock.
Dolby Bitstream Surround Audio support, Nintendo consoles (GameCube, Wii, Wii U) used to support Dolby bitstream (compressed) surround audio, but the Switch does not support Dolby, it instead supports PCM 5.1 surround which doesn’t work over ARC or eARC. This wasn’t a big deal when the Switch was designed, back then most surround audio systems owned by people who actually cared about whether their console did surround sound had actual AV receivers, which take PCM audio from a source just fine, and the decision saved Nintendo Dolby licensing costs. But now times have changed, lots of people have surround soundbars connected to their TVs over ARC, so I could see Dolby making a comeback, either as Dolby Digital Plus 5.1 over HDMI or more likely … Dolby Atmos
Backwards Dock Compatibility: I could see Nintendo allowing Merge users to reuse their existing Dock for experiences that don’t use the mixed reality functionality, or if the experience *does* use that functionality, the Merge’s Size could have it it peeking over the top of the Switch dock to make docked mixed reality experiences possible. Users would still have to buy the “Merge” Dock to play at 4K or stream wirelessly to the tv.
What I don’t think will happen with the Merge:
actual CPU/GPU power in the dock. Hot plugging an EGPU mid-game seems tough to avoid crashes, wirelessly streaming to another actual SOC in the dock as one cohesive experience sounds hellish to develop for and regardless it seems expensive. *Maybe* Nintendo designs the Merge to work with a future dock that supports such a thing, but my money is it won’t be available at launch.
Extended Switch support: they are going to move away from the Switch *fast*, to try to get people to jump on the Merge ship
Roku/Fire Stick/Apple TV streaming, while it is technically feasible to stream from the console to an app on an existing streaming stick rather than using a special stick made by Nintendo, (1) Nintendo hates working with others, (2) unless said others gave Nintendo very low level access, they would have to route the connection over the home’s wifi network rather than direct connect, which is much less reliable. Out of all predictions, this is the one I'm least confident on though, I could see Nintendo considering this trying to get out of the cost of the Stick.
Interoperation with iOS or Android devices: as augmented reality objects. In theory there’s nothing stopping you from connecting your iPhone to the Merge and joining the mixed reality fun in a multiplayer gamebut in reality I don’t think Nintendo likes customers using another company’s devices so it won't happen.
Better voice chat for online gaming. Nintendo designs their devices for children, and parents who are buying this for their child don’t want their child to stumble upon the Nintendo equivalent of Xbox live trash talk. My bet is the jank app system as we know it sticks around.
HDMI 2.1 4K@120 hz at launch: They will save this for a mid-cycle refresh, to allow DLSS to mature enough to make this work with a 20 watt TDP (Ampere, which Orin is based on, doesn’t officially support DLSS 3, DLSS 3 or better will be necessary to hit 4K 120 fps)
Gaming experiences that work on just the Dock/Stick. Even though the stick could be built with enough horsepower to run Switch games on its own with negligible marginal cost, there could be concerns about consumer confusion and cannibalization of Merge game sales that keep this from happening. Switch backward compatibility will probably exist on the Merge though.
Apple Silicon instead of Orin: In some ways, this would be a good match, Apple is the world leader in high performance, low power ARM chips, Tim Cook might like the chance to smite Nvidia, but Apple doesn't need the money. *<aybe* if Nintendo committed to release some games for Apple Arcade, but it still just feels out of character for both companies.
