RonnieOP

Epidemiologists are not experts on the economy. Are you trying to say we should ignore the economic experts but listen to the health experts? Because that kinda goes against your whole thing on listening to the experts. And your basically arguing the rule of majority. Majority doesnt mean they are right. Your saying just ignore the experts who disagree with the experts i listen to. Please show me one health expert that is saying that lockdown is sustainable and wont have disastrous effect on the economy. Again looking at the data that the experts provided what sense does a universal lockdown make? Why are people that have a much better chance of dying in a car wreck being told to lockdown and lose everything for something that they will get over in a couple days in bed? I understand protecting nursing homes and having high risk households stay locked up. They are going to need to do that until there is a cure. But what sense does it make for low risk people to stay locked up? If high risk people are staying locked up we pose no threat to them in terms of infecting them.

And the experts saying stay home are not looking at everything. they are only looking at their area of expertise (health). If health risk were the only thing we had to worry about then that would be fine. But its not. Looking at the issue from only one side is the worst thing you can do in a pandemic. Again you can look at the data they are providing. For the majority of the population the virus will only have mild symptoms. So what sense does it make to lock everyone up?

the death rate does change. if theres more infected then reported that drops the death rate. Thats how they are calculating the death rate. NY is an exception, not the rule. You will not find another area in the US thats the same as NYC. And the death rate in NYC can be added to the fact that the governor made it law for nursing home to accept people who tested positive with covid. The main factors of risk is age and health. Its why the average age of death in alot of areas is 70+. its why in most areas basically half the deaths are in nursing homes.

No im looking at the same data they are. the same data they have released. Dont need to be an epidemiologist to read stats. There isnt scientific consensus on it. thats the point. You have some of the leading experts in the world saying lockdown isnt the answer. What evidence is there that locking EVERYONE regardless of risk level is the right thing to do?

So its an agreement because you ignore the experts that say something different from what other experts you like say? You dont need to be an expert to read the data they provide.

The disease isnt being reduced. Its still out there. What are we doing thats proven to reduce it? Again you act as if this is deadly for everyone. Its not. We know its not. If it was we wouldnt have 1.2 million known cases with just 80k deaths. There was an article from medicalxpress yesterday about a study that showed the death rate is 1.3% and thats without counting the unknown cases. Which we know from studies in boston and la that the infection rate is much higher then reported. The studies were estimating the death rate to be closer to .5%

In order for contact tracing to work in the us youd need basically everyone to agree to it and take part in it. They cant force anyone to do that. They cant punish people for not doing it. Thats why i say it wont work.

Scientist and epidemiologists are not in agreement on this. Your point only makes sense if some were not also telling us that locking down everyone isnt the right thing to do. And the whole argument from authority means nothing to me. You dont need to be a scientist to ask questions. You dont need to be a health expert to read the stats and data that is being provided.

So you have no answer on what we should do? Your against every other idea but have none of your own?

Its not a failed argument. Your argument was "dont take risks because of the unknown". You thought process was just idiotic. By your logic a vaccine would be a decade away since they have to take risks to get it through faster. You gave 3 options on what needs to happen. I explained how one was years away, the other was impossible, and the third you didnt like because you think (without evidence) low risk people are going to die from it. And then you stopped replying. Id love to know what you think should be done that is realistic. Lockdown isnt going to last till a cure, tracing wont work in a meaningful way. Cure isnt anywhere close, and you dont like herd immunity. What is your idea?

It will be a miracle if we have anything this year let alone within months. I mean it would be great. I hope it happens. But i dont see anyone claiming thats likely. And contact tracing is impossible (in the states atleast) so whatever they do will have to be done without that as a factor.

The purpose of the lockdowns was to keep hospitals from being over ran. We did that. Not a single hospital had to turn away anyone. The navy ships were not needed and the temp hospitals were closed without any patients being in them. Reopening "too soon" doesnt mean the hospitals will be over ran. Unless the high risk minority decide to say fuck it and go out with everyone else. And thats on them. Nobody else. It will cause the curve to go up. No doubt. Doesnt matter though if that majority of those people wont need medical attention. So it wont strain anything. Infection numbers mean nothing. Death numbers do. Have the high risk stay home and be safe. Keeping the low risk home makes zero sense. Sure it protects them from being sick for a few days. But at a cost thats not worth it.

We dont know if itll work for this virus. We know it has worked in the past. There is evidence that it can work. What you are speaking of has no evidence. So why would you go with no evidence vs evidence? Your whole argument is basically that we should not do anything risky....which is not a good argument. By that logic the vaccine would never get pushed out. We have to take risks orherwise we are sitting ducks. If you are worried that your age or health means the virus will kill you...stay at home. Its that simple. If the virus is likely to kill you tomorrow the virus is just as likely to kill you in two months, six months, a year, etc until there is a vaccine. And the vaccine will probably kill a good amount of people as well just like other vaccines. We are going to see cases go up. Thats a given. But cases going up doesnt matter if the people getting it are low risk and wont likely even see a doctor. Thats the point of herd immunity. We can see from the data who is at most risk. Hell in most states around 50% of deaths are from nursing homes. You laid out 3 options. One wont happen until maybe next year, the other one is 100% impossible to do, and the third we can do but you fight against it because of fear of risks with no evidence. Im not sure what you are wanting here. Your basically saying no option at all should be attempted

So we shouldnt ain for something known to work (herd immunity) because we DONT know something else bad wont happen? Thats an asinine thought process. We dont make plans on "what ifs" based on no knowledge. Theres no evidence that what you are speaking of will happen...yet we should plan on it happening?

Do you have any evidence that low risk people are getting it over and over and eventually dying?

The world doesnt die. The vast majority of people who get the virus dont die. If it was as deadly as you make it out to be for everyone then we would already have tens of millions dead in the us alone.

Who is claiming that cases wont go up? Unless there is a cure cases are going to go up. Its why even as we reopen high risk people will still need to lockdown. Your whole statement has nothing to do with what was being talked about.

We have no clue whats really going on in china. Nor do we know if they "killed" it in any way. Theres no factual evidence that china "killed the virus". Contact tracing cannot be done in the US. Not in a meaningful way that would actually work. Its impossible. You cant enforce it. It will never/cant ever happen. A vaccine is nowhere in sight. We dont even have any evidence that we will ever get one at this time (not saying we wont. I think we will and i hope we will) So out of the three options you put the only one that is realistic any time this year is herd immunity.

We flattened the curve. We all agree on that. So if we agree its no less deadly in two months as it is now....why wait to reopen areas? The way we deal with it now is the same way we deal with it in a month or two. Unless something magically happens in medicine. So why continue to weaken the entire country when the outcome is the same?

What information out there suggests that the virus will be less deadly in two months compared to today. Unless the virus magically dies or becomes less infectious its the same thing. Unless they plan on locking down until theres a cure (which we know wont happen, even if they tried people wouldnt obey it) they are just delaying the inevitable.

No it wasnt. It was the flatten the curve. Flattening the curve does not stop deaths it just spreads it out. Instead of having a huge hump all at once you have a steady flow over time. Again what changes if we further expand lockdowns? Its been two months. The virus is still here. Its still just as infectious. And in two months time that doesnt change. No matter what we do we are going to have a second wave (unless we stay lockdown until theres a cure which we know wont happen). The virus isnt getting weaker, its not dying out, etc. It just delays the inevitable.

It is the same. What changes? The virus is still here, its still as infectious, etc. You cannot stop a resurgence without a cure. Its impossible. Lockdowns are just delaying them. It doesnt stop them. The whole "flatten the curve" was to not over run the hospitals. It was to spread out the deaths over time. Not to stop them. Nothing outside of a perm lockdown or a cure will stop the deaths. And yes you are going to have low risk people still in fear. But that doesnt mean we keep an unsustainable lockdown as law because people are scared. Again ill ask you. If a 19 year old is afraid to drive to work, after they see that everyday in the us 6 teenagers die in a car wreck, would you pay them to stay home? Of course not. You also wouldnt force every other teenager never to drive because of that risk. Anyone can decide to stay home. Thats their choice. But their choice should not be law. I went down to SC this weekend for a haircut and to look at a motorcycle. Everywhere was packed. Plenty of people are willing to take that gamble. It makes no sense to force them to lockup.

Except we are not all fucked. Because the risk factor is not the same for everyone. Its why the death toll is 80k while the recorded infection number 1.2 million in the US. And studies are showing the infection rate is much higher. I mean this virus has been here since mid January. Months before anyone locked down. There is absolutely no evidence that temp lockdowns will do a thing. We are going to have a second wave..you know who wont have a second wave? Sweden and the areas that didnt lockdown. We know lockdown isnt sustainable. So what sense does it make to keep doing something we know doesnt work?

Oh i agree that not all businesses are going to be ok even with reopening. When is it reasonable? The virus doesnt go away so whats the difference between a restricted reopening today vs doing one in two months? No matter when we reopen the result is the same. Unless magically the virus dies out which we know isnt going to happen. Yes for some demographics the risk will be too high. Those people will need to stay lockdown. But for a huge portion of the population the risk is not high. So forcing them to stay locked down makes zero sense.

Im not saying end lockdown and go straight back to normal. There will still be some restrictions. If your not a fan of the herd immunity approach...then what are you a fan of? The only other option is lockdown until theres a cure. And true not everyone will want to go back to work. But thats no different then any other day. Anyone can decide not to work. They just wont have money to buy things or pay bills. They cant expect to be paid by the government for years because they are scared of a low risk outcome. Like i said for a huge portion of the population dying in a car wreck is much more likely then dying from the virus. And if we talk about getting seriously injured in a car wreck the numbers go much much higher. People dont get to claim unemployment because they are scared of getting hurt in a car wreck. We roll the dice literally every single day of our lives. Most highways speed limit is around 60 mph. They set that limit by rolling the dice of risk vs reward. If the speed limit on the high way was 40mph the risk would go way down.