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[Misleading] AMD market share up 10.4% in Q2 2017 [Updated]

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First off, this is from WCCF, so take it with a grain of salt.

If this is a repost, please report this to mods so threads get merged or this one gets closed.

 

[Updated 4/07/2017]

 

AMD Takes 10.4% CPU Share From Intel In Q2 2017, Its Largest Quarterly Share Gain In History

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AMD has reportedly gained 10.4 percentage points of CPU market share in the second quarter of 2017. This makes it the largest x86 CPU market share gain in the history of the Sunnyvale, California based chip maker against its much larger rival Intel.

AMD-Intel-Q3-2017-CPU-Market-Share.png

Quote

Ryzen May Be The Most Successful Product Launch In AMD’s History
AMD now commands 31% of the market, which constitutes the largest CPU share level the company has reached in a decade. Only a quarter back the company was sitting at 20.6%. A 10%+ share gain in a single quarter is unheard of in the x86 CPU market and truly reflects the magnitude of this achievement for AMD.

In Q1 2017 the company had only gained 2.2% in the same market, largely due to the fact that only half of AMD’s desktop Ryzen SKUs had been available in the market and only in the last month of the quarter. The initial launch was also hamstrung by a shortage of AM4 motherboards. The second quarter however was dramatically different. Today, AM4 motherboards are consistently in-stock and there are more than twice as many Ryzen processors to choose from.

Thanks to @DocSwag for pointing this out:

 

Quote

PassMark
– This graph counts the baselines submitted to us during these time period and therefore is representative of CPUs in use rather than CPUs purchased.
– The Quarters are by the calendar year rather than financial. (i.e. Q1 starts January 1st)
– Baselines can be submitted from anywhere therefore these are global statistics.
– We do receive a small number of submissions of CPU types other than AMD and Intel however the percentage is so small as to make it not worth graphing. This combined with rounding off the percentages to 2 decimal places will account for each quarter not always adding up to exactly 100%.
– This chart only includes x86 processors and does not include other chip architectures these manufacturers may sell.
– This chart only includes CPUs installed into PCs and does not include game consoles.
– As the PerformanceTest software only runs on Windows OS and counts on user submitting their benchmarks. This chart may be non reflective of non Windows user base.

 

sauce

 

UPDATE

thanks to @mr moose for this article

In a not-so-surprising turn of events, the article is highly misleading and the newly mentioned article shows us why

Quote

First of all, I don’t mean this article to be a negative article for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). I just want it to serve to set things right regarding a piece of information I find misleading. Also generically, I want it to serve as a bit of knowledge which will help investors gauge future information of the same nature.

Both at Seeking Alpha and elsewhere, there is commentary to the effect that AMD could have gained 10% PC CPU market share from Intel (INTC) during Q2 2017. This commentary is based on a PassMark report. This commentary is wrong.

First of all, mostly only enthusiast Ryzen chips were available throughout Q2 2017. The launch schedule was as follows:

March 2: Ryzen 7 1800X, 1700X, 1700 ($329).
April 11: Ryzen 1600X, 1600, 1500X and 1400 ($169).
So for half a quarter, only chips at and above $329 were available for sale. And even after mid quarter, the cheapest chip still cost $169.

Quote

So, we’re talking about chips geared toward the enthusiast desktop market, which will be less than one-third (desktop) of one-third (enthusiast) of the PC market. And then, we’re mostly talking about chips in boxes, because actual brand PCs with Ryzen selling during most of the quarter were minimal. All of these taken together mean that it was just impossible for AMD to have conquered 10% of the CPU market during Q2 2017. The entire enthusiast desktop PC market likely won’t even be that large (in units).

Quote

It’s a self-selected sample. Each time you have a self-selected sample, you have to worry about the predisposition of your subjects to “take the survey.” AMD has been without a competitive CPU for many years, and now it suddenly got one. Plus the CPU was sold boxed for most of the quarter, thus used by enthusiasts which build their own PC. You can guess that the predisposition of this public to benchmark what they just “created” was pretty high. Hence, a 10% gain in share of this self-reported enthusiast segment.

Quote

What About The Actual Share Gain?

The actual market share gain by AMD will have been a small fraction of 10%. Perhaps you can even make a rough and optimistic estimate of just how large it might have been. Let’s try:

A typical quarter sees ~70 million PC units sold.
AMD had $984 million in total revenues for Q1. Market consensus is for this to rise to $1.16 billion in Q2.
If we attribute the entire increase to Ryzen (totally on the optimistic side), then Ryzen would add $176 million.
At an optimistically-low $250 per chip, this would mean ~0.7 million Ryzen chips sold in the quarter. That’s 1% of added market share. Even if AMD doubled that (which would lead to a nice revenue beat, by the way), it would have conquered just 2% of market share.

Quote

Conclusion

While Ryzen should have led to some market share gains by AMD, these gains were certainly not 10% of the market. Instead, it’s more likely that they were 1-2% of the market, which is still a nice achievement – but not 10%. The 10% is basically the result of a self-selected sample distorting the actual Ryzen success.

For Intel, this is the start of continued market share, price and margin pressure. Even if Intel wards off AMD’s pressure in terms of chip performance (which seems likely from its new enthusiast chips), the financial pressure will still be present.

---

Hell, it's good to see AMD getting back into the race. The bump in market share is quite a nice view and we've all seen how Intel reacted to Ryzen (I am, of course, talking about the i9 line-up)

If AMD's Threadripper proves to be a continuation of this trend, we might see some nice back and forward from Intel and AMD. Let's just hope they won't battle at the top-end with enthusiast chips that not too many can afford or justify.

 

Another interesting thing is the CPUs of choice, at least on WCCF's poll, with Ryzen 7 1700 leading the pack, followed by the Ryzen 5 1600.

 

With the new information presented, it's still good to see AMD in the game, even if the real market share increase was actually around 1-2% instead of the "reported" (and highly overestimated) 10%

Mr. Santos raises quite a lot of valid points and I have to agree with him. Skewed results and sensationalist "news" seem to plague us further, giving false hope to some and causing unwarranted panic to others (imagine Intel taking the report seriously and taking hastily made decisions to try to mitigate the market share loss on their side).

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2 minutes ago, Nicholatian said:

AMD really has Ryzen.

*sigh*

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4 minutes ago, Nicholatian said:

AMD really has Ryzen. I’m still very excited to see things continue to change with this myself, ‘cause much of the market has to catch up still. Here’s to more market share taken in Q3!

What I'm curious to see if if the reported market share is limited to consumer SKUs or if it includes server grade chips. With Epyc, Threadripper and Ryzen Pro around the corner, we might see some interesting numbers in Q3/Q4

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If this is true, then this is great for AMD and the cpu market in general.

Current LTT F@H Rank: 90    Score: 2,503,680,659    Stats

Yes, I have 9 monitors.

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This is very good news, it means that competition is back! :D

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Just now, sazrocks said:

If this is true, then this is great for AMD and the cpu market in general.

Data seems to come from CPU benchmark, so numbers might be a bit skewed. So far I've only seen 3 or 4 other sources which are using pretty much the same data. I'm waiting for a more trustworthy source to be honest

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This is the largest amount of the PC market that AMD has owned in almost 10 years.  On top of that, they have the chance to take more because Intel is too busy being stunned.  Threadripper annihilates X299 in bang-for-your-buck; Epyc beats Xeon across the board.

 

Intel, your gonna have a bad time, as AMD is dethroning you French Revolution style. B|

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11 minutes ago, revsilverspine said:

Data seems to come from CPU benchmark, so numbers might be a bit skewed. So far I've only seen 3 or 4 other sources which are using pretty much the same data. I'm waiting for a more trustworthy source to be honest

Ah. I see. So more than likely the real number is ~50% of this one since this only focuses on new cpus, not total cpus. Still good nontheless.

Current LTT F@H Rank: 90    Score: 2,503,680,659    Stats

Yes, I have 9 monitors.

My main PC (Hybrid Windows 10/Arch Linux):

OS: Arch Linux w/ XFCE DE (VFIO-Patched Kernel) as host OS, windows 10 as guest

CPU: Ryzen 9 3900X w/PBO on (6c 12t for host, 6c 12t for guest)

Cooler: Noctua NH-D15

Mobo: Asus X470-F Gaming

RAM: 32GB G-Skill Ripjaws V @ 3200MHz (12GB for host, 20GB for guest)

GPU: Guest: EVGA RTX 3070 FTW3 ULTRA Host: 2x Radeon HD 8470

PSU: EVGA G2 650W

SSDs: Guest: Samsung 850 evo 120 GB, Samsung 860 evo 1TB Host: Samsung 970 evo 500GB NVME

HDD: Guest: WD Caviar Blue 1 TB

Case: Fractal Design Define R5 Black w/ Tempered Glass Side Panel Upgrade

Other: White LED strip to illuminate the interior. Extra fractal intake fan for positive pressure.

 

unRAID server (Plex, Windows 10 VM, NAS, Duplicati, game servers):

OS: unRAID 6.11.2

CPU: Ryzen R7 2700x @ Stock

Cooler: Noctua NH-U9S

Mobo: Asus Prime X470-Pro

RAM: 16GB G-Skill Ripjaws V + 16GB Hyperx Fury Black @ stock

GPU: EVGA GTX 1080 FTW2

PSU: EVGA G3 850W

SSD: Samsung 970 evo NVME 250GB, Samsung 860 evo SATA 1TB 

HDDs: 4x HGST Dekstar NAS 4TB @ 7200RPM (3 data, 1 parity)

Case: Sillverstone GD08B

Other: Added 3x Noctua NF-F12 intake, 2x Noctua NF-A8 exhaust, Inatek 5 port USB 3.0 expansion card with usb 3.0 front panel header

Details: 12GB ram, GTX 1080, USB card passed through to windows 10 VM. VM's OS drive is the SATA SSD. Rest of resources are for Plex, Duplicati, Spaghettidetective, Nextcloud, and game servers.

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Just now, sazrocks said:

Ah. I see. So more than likely the real number is ~50% of this one since this only focuses on new cpus, not total cpus. Still good nontheless.

I'm not sure if it's limited to new CPUs. CPU Benchmark doesn't detail their methodology or which SKUs are included.

I have a distinct feeling that they count all CPUs benchmarked with their utility. That, of course, leaves out a pretty big chunk of individual CPUs that have never been benchmarked (hell, I haven't submitted any bench on their site, so there's that).

Remember kids, the only difference between screwing around and science is writing it down. - Adam Savage

 

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Just now, revsilverspine said:

I'm not sure if it's limited to new CPUs. CPU Benchmark doesn't detail their methodology or which SKUs are included.

I have a distinct feeling that they count all CPUs benchmarked with their utility. That, of course, leaves out a pretty big chunk of individual CPUs that have never been benchmarked (hell, I haven't submitted any bench on their site, so there's that).

Correct. I was more getting at that most people will bench their new cpu when they get it/when they overclock it soon after the get it, and then never really bench it again. 

Current LTT F@H Rank: 90    Score: 2,503,680,659    Stats

Yes, I have 9 monitors.

My main PC (Hybrid Windows 10/Arch Linux):

OS: Arch Linux w/ XFCE DE (VFIO-Patched Kernel) as host OS, windows 10 as guest

CPU: Ryzen 9 3900X w/PBO on (6c 12t for host, 6c 12t for guest)

Cooler: Noctua NH-D15

Mobo: Asus X470-F Gaming

RAM: 32GB G-Skill Ripjaws V @ 3200MHz (12GB for host, 20GB for guest)

GPU: Guest: EVGA RTX 3070 FTW3 ULTRA Host: 2x Radeon HD 8470

PSU: EVGA G2 650W

SSDs: Guest: Samsung 850 evo 120 GB, Samsung 860 evo 1TB Host: Samsung 970 evo 500GB NVME

HDD: Guest: WD Caviar Blue 1 TB

Case: Fractal Design Define R5 Black w/ Tempered Glass Side Panel Upgrade

Other: White LED strip to illuminate the interior. Extra fractal intake fan for positive pressure.

 

unRAID server (Plex, Windows 10 VM, NAS, Duplicati, game servers):

OS: unRAID 6.11.2

CPU: Ryzen R7 2700x @ Stock

Cooler: Noctua NH-U9S

Mobo: Asus Prime X470-Pro

RAM: 16GB G-Skill Ripjaws V + 16GB Hyperx Fury Black @ stock

GPU: EVGA GTX 1080 FTW2

PSU: EVGA G3 850W

SSD: Samsung 970 evo NVME 250GB, Samsung 860 evo SATA 1TB 

HDDs: 4x HGST Dekstar NAS 4TB @ 7200RPM (3 data, 1 parity)

Case: Sillverstone GD08B

Other: Added 3x Noctua NF-F12 intake, 2x Noctua NF-A8 exhaust, Inatek 5 port USB 3.0 expansion card with usb 3.0 front panel header

Details: 12GB ram, GTX 1080, USB card passed through to windows 10 VM. VM's OS drive is the SATA SSD. Rest of resources are for Plex, Duplicati, Spaghettidetective, Nextcloud, and game servers.

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2 minutes ago, sazrocks said:

Correct. I was more getting at that most people will bench their new cpu when they get it/when they overclock it soon after the get it, and then never really bench it again. 

No idea. Like I said, I'm waiting for a more reliable source with more credible numbers. Don't get me wrong, 10.4% is amazing, but it's also quite a bump

Remember kids, the only difference between screwing around and science is writing it down. - Adam Savage

 

PHOΞNIX Ryzen 5 1600 @ 3.75GHz | Corsair LPX 16Gb DDR4 @ 2933 | MSI B350 Tomahawk | Sapphire RX 480 Nitro+ 8Gb | Intel 535 120Gb | Western Digital WD5000AAKS x2 | Cooler Master HAF XB Evo | Corsair H80 + Corsair SP120 | Cooler Master 120mm AF | Corsair SP120 | Icy Box IB-172SK-B | OCZ CX500W | Acer GF246 24" + AOC <some model> 21.5" | Steelseries Apex 350 | Steelseries Diablo 3 | Steelseries Syberia RAW Prism | Corsair HS-1 | Akai AM-A1

D.VA coming soon™ xoxo

Sapphire Acer Aspire 1410 Celeron 743 | 3Gb DDR2-667 | 120Gb HDD | Windows 10 Home x32

Vault Tec Celeron 420 | 2Gb DDR2-667 | Storage pending | Open Media Vault

gh0st Asus K50IJ T3100 | 2Gb DDR2-667 | 40Gb HDD | Ubuntu 17.04

Diskord Apple MacBook A1181 Mid-2007 Core2Duo T7400 @2.16GHz | 4Gb DDR2-667 | 120Gb HDD | Windows 10 Pro x32

Firebird//Phoeniix FX-4320 | Gigabyte 990X-Gaming SLI | Asus GTS 450 | 16Gb DDR3-1600 | 2x Intel 535 250Gb | 4x 10Tb Western Digital Red | 600W Segotep custom refurb unit | Windows 10 Pro x64 // offisite backup and dad's PC

 

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These numbers are hugely inaccurate and I don't think using them is a good idea.

 

If you read the article wccftech obtained these numbers through passmark, which is hugely biased. Why?

 

Passmark is a CPU benchmark. Your average joe out there is gonna have no idea what Ryzen is, nor will they have any idea what a CPU benchmark is. By only using results from a specific crowd (those who actually bother which benchmarks), you're limiting yourself to a very specific, small, and biased group of people. The average person that knows what Passmark is and will actually bother to run it is HIGHLY more likely to be within the community of people that knows what Ryzen is and will be more likely to buy it. This sample is basically of a group of people that are heavily biased.

 

As well, just thinking about it it makes no sense that amd could gain 10% market share with just Ryzen 5 and 7 in about one quarter. There are billions of CPUs out there, if amd actually gained 10% market share that would mean they sold hundreds of millions of CPUs in the last quarter which is pretty much impossible. Ryzen is currently mainly sold to custom pc builders, the only Ryzen laptops are high end and not out yet and the number of OEM desktops using Ryzen still aren't that many.

 

I just wanted to point out how biased the sample is. I wouldn't be surprised if amd did gain some market share thanks to Ryzen but I'd expect it to be more along the lines of a few percent, not 10 percent. @revsilverspine, you might want to edit in that this is Passmark that is being used for the sample.

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Just now, raphidy said:

What is this data? Is that Kabylake vs Ryzen or what? Does this count Epic also?

Considering the graph goes all the way back to 2004, I'd say everything ever released in the past 13 years. Which is a shitload, at least from Intel

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1 minute ago, DocSwag said:

I just wanted to point out how biased the sample is. I wouldn't be surprised if amd did gain some market share thanks to Ryzen but I'd expect it to be more along the lines of a few percent, not 10 percent. @revsilverspine, you might want to edit in that this is Passmark that is being used for the sample.

sauce please

nvm. Editing now

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Now only if RTG can pull some miracle. Still a bit of hope left in me in terms of the price of Vega but I don't think performance will be there.

 

 

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This good, very good.

 

Too bad that after Vega, their GPU market share will go the opposite way. I know I know they'll still have consoles but still.

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1 minute ago, Misanthrope said:

This good, very good.

 

Too bad that after Vega, their GPU market share will go the opposite way. I know I know they'll still have consoles but still.

This is for CPUs, not GPUs <_<

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What about the GPU side of things?

ƆԀ S₱▓Ɇ▓cs: i7 6ʇɥפᴉƎ00K (4.4ghz), Asus DeLuxe X99A II, GT҉X҉1҉0҉8҉0 Zotac Amp ExTrꍟꎭe),Si6F4Gb D???????r PlatinUm, EVGA G2 Sǝʌǝᘉ5ᙣᙍᖇᓎᙎᗅᖶt, Phanteks Enthoo Primo, 3TB WD Black, 500gb 850 Evo, H100iGeeTeeX, Windows 10, K70 R̸̢̡̭͍͕̱̭̟̩̀̀̃́̃͒̈́̈́͑̑́̆͘͜ͅG̶̦̬͊́B̸͈̝̖͗̈́, G502, HyperX Cloud 2s, Asus MX34. פN∩SW∀S 960 EVO

Just keeping this here as a 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the source is crackpot on methamphetamines

the actual source is a PassMark quarterly report based on users benchmark submissions xD

 

want to see a more real representation of what's really out here? check STEAM's hardware survey http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/processormfg/

 

iDa8Hcx.png

JXS1IUr.png

uUhxMhg.png

 

tada ...

Edited by zMeul
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5 minutes ago, zMeul said:

the source is crackpot on methamphetamines

the actual source is a PassMark quarterly report based on users benchmark submissions xD

It's WCCF, what did you expect?

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2 minutes ago, revsilverspine said:

It's WCCF, what did you expect?

that's the thing, the source isn't WCCFShit

the actual source is a PassMark report

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1 hour ago, zMeul said:

the source is crackpot on methamphetamines

the actual source is a PassMark quarterly report based on users benchmark submissions xD

 

want to see a more real representation of what's really out here? check STEAM's hardware survey http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/processormfg/

 

iDa8Hcx.png

JXS1IUr.png

uUhxMhg.png

 

tada ...

That would show as AMD losing share since Jan 2016 it doesn't make sense at all... That literally says Ryzen gained them nothing (In fact a negative) so you have to wonder when that survey was actually taken. The WCCF article and Linus' comparison to his affiliate purchases paint a more accurate picture.

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14 minutes ago, tom_w141 said:

That would show as AMD losing share since Jan 2016 it doesn't make sense at all... That literally says Ryzen gained them nothing (In fact a negative) so you have to wonder when that survey was actually taken. The WCCF article and Linus' comparison to his affiliate purchases paint a more accurate picture.

That also assumes that everyone who uses Steam does the survey.  I wouldn't mind doing it if they only collected hardware data, but when they collect a list of every single program installed on my computer, that's too much.  I refuse to do them anymore, just because of that.

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6 minutes ago, Jito463 said:

That also assumes that everyone who uses Steam does the survey.  I wouldn't mind doing it if they only collected hardware data, but when they collect a list of every single program installed on my computer, that's too much.  I refuse to do them anymore, just because of that.

Didn't even know about it so thats -1 AMD result lol. Also yes it does seem invasive.

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