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Steam - Hardware Survey - under represents VR

Steam Hardware Survey:

http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/

 

 

Related links for June 2016 survey:

1. http://techreport.com/news/30349/june-2016-steam-hardware-survey-now-with-more-vr

2. http://www.gamespot.com/forums/system-wars-314159282/the-problem-with-using-steam-hardware-survey-31426163/

3. https://zerolives.com/article/EwCL5SVB/steam-hardware-survey-shows-virtual-reality-headset-sales-stagnate

 

As I've seen @LinusTech and Luke comment in videos that VR use appears to be stagnating.


I just wanted to point out something. I just took the STEAM January 2017 hardware survey this morning.

 

I have a HTC Vive.

 

However, unless the device is connected and powered on the Steam Survey simply does not detect that a VR device is connected. Therefore any news stories based on the Steam survey stats - on VR are completely distorted and wrong.

 

It should be a user question like the microphone question you have to checkbox. Since the VR device is a USB powered device and these are not always connected for obvious reasons (I store mine in a protected foam lined box to protect from dust).

 

Just wanted to bring this up. As no doubt there will be comments in the news and on WAN show about low uptake (Luke has commented about this) but

 

the Steam survey is fundamentally flawed getting data on VR usage and uptake or sales (!)

Edited by mark_cameron
Added in Steam Hardware Survey URL
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And it underestimates the number of Oculus Rift owners even more than Vive owners. Sales figures of content available on both Steam and Oculus Store shows that most Rift owners prefer to buy through the Oculus Store.

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Turns out that Oculus's founder already commented about this in September 2016:

 

http://www.moddb.com/news/oculus-founder-comments-on-steam-hardware-surveys-vr-results

 

' Luckey concluded by saying that the “Vast majority of VR market never touches that survey.” Attempts have been made before to divine the health of the VR market through this survey, and the more accurate result is to look at pack-in games instead. However, now that HTC is changing which games come packaged with the HTC Vive, that may no longer be a reliable indicator. '

 

Its important that in future WAN show commentary on VR or review videos, that this is taken account of.

 

Because these points are clearly correct and STEAM needs to ensure it is properly collecting statistical data.

 

As of January 2017 it still is not. I saw this this morning myself.

 

 

 

Or tech reviewers like @LinusTech and Luke will be quoting faulty data and statistics when giving tech reviews

 

Which people - like me - use in making purchasing decisions !!!!

 

 

15 hours ago, Sakkura said:

And it underestimates the number of Oculus Rift owners even more than Vive owners. Sales figures of content available on both Steam and Oculus Store shows that most Rift owners prefer to buy through the Oculus Store.

Agree mate, see the above comments from Occulus in the last post.

 

Steam are to blame and Luke, I feel needs to back away from any comments about a VR 'crash' or stagnation

 

because the Steam survey is still faulty when it comes to VR data collection.

 

I mean seriously flawed. When it would be simple for them to include an optional question to cover it.

 

Hence my OP here.

 

 

Steam and the industry need to make sure they're checking their data collection procedure for bias. This information is used by consumer reviewers and groups to help consumers make purchasing decisions.


If people think VR is dead they will avoid buying VR.

 

Its a very poor mistake and any media using the data without fact checking need to really get a grip of themselves.

 

The data is only - suggestive of poor VR uptake. The data collection process is however flawed, in a very serious way.

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Yeah I've been pretty disappointed by the LMG coverage of VR. The "why VR died" video was just... come on. And then Linus on the latest WAN show, not recognizing that November-December saw a bunch of new content launched (and Rift owners getting Touch controllers, with all the content that enables).

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7 minutes ago, Sakkura said:

Yeah I've been pretty disappointed by the LMG coverage of VR. The "why VR died" video was just... come on. And then Linus on the latest WAN show, not recognizing that November-December saw a bunch of new content launched (and Rift owners getting Touch controllers, with all the content that enables).

I watch virtually every video LMG publish on Youtube in LTT and TechQuickie in particular.

 

I wouldn't say they've been - not even handed.

 

I think some of it is a scripting issue on the 'VR died' point and that STEAM (I'm a loyal steam customer) hasn't adapted for the specifics of the VR marketplace in the survey.

 

Its basic and whomever is responsible for the steam survey seems to be simply plodding on like business as usual without bias checking.

 

It has certainly misled Luke in some WAN shows.

 

But Luke at least was not the original source of the 'VR dead' clickbait stories as you can see in my links.

 

Clickbait just makes people feel cheated and LTT doesn't go in for it.

 

But still. I'm mainly disappointed in STEAM. I spotted this issue immediately.

 

The VR market is a specialised gaming market. STEAM is supposedly meant to be championing!

 

Thats the frustrating part.

 

I know that Linus and Luke and LMG are on the forums and take feedback all the time. Lets see some fact correcting from LMG in 2017 videos and hopefully see Steam properly adjust for new technologies like VR.

 

Not using a survey format from 2011 and trying to stupidly add in VR surveying without thinking about what data they will get back.

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If you buy VR games without the Vive or Oculus connected it also doesn't counts towards VR game sales numers then?

 

Otherwise this is an accurate, yet almost irrelevant aside.

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8 minutes ago, Misanthrope said:

If you buy VR games without the Vive or Oculus connected it also doesn't counts towards VR game sales numers then?

 

Otherwise this is an accurate, yet almost irrelevant aside.

Nope.

 

Has ZERO impact. The survey only records powered hardware. I have my VIVE software running in the background.


Had zero impact. Also I have several or more non-VR specific games that I enjoy (car racing games etc - Euro Truck Simulator and Project Cars ...).

 

I purchased a lot of car games in the holiday sale on STEAM.


That I can use with the headset and wheel/pedals etc

 

Has no impact on these Steam figures.

 

Therefore on WAN Show we need Linus and Luke to be more careful when talking about VR uptake.

 

The manufacturers themselves are obfuscating and being coy. However, talk of the 'death' of VR based on the Steam hardware survey in mainstream media:

 

see: Tuesday 6 Sep 2016  http://metro.co.uk/2016/09/06/vr-sales-flatline-as-early-adopter-market-dries-up-6112288/

 

Are absolute nonsense.

 

its a murky picture. I'm of the view that VR sales have been steady but not-spectacular.

 

Software sales is what is going to be a clincher. But don't just look at VR specific titles.

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@LinusTech

 

Luke himself has said at 2:00 in the video below dated 10 March 2016 that LMG use this survey as a 'SIMPLE BUT VERY POWERFUL TOOL' to quantify and discuss in LMG videos.

 

When it comes to VR you can only use the STEAM VR headline figures with extreme caution.

 

You can us it to make inferences on VR. You cannot use this survey as fact, as some in the media have done so as already laid out above.

 

This is due to errors in approach for data collection by STEAM specific to VR.

 

When you're talking to game devs I would suggest that you remind them not to use the VR headline figures. But to look at software sales - including non-VR specific titles.

 

I would also suggest that you ask STEAM to ensure they properly capture VR for non-powered hardware in future survey's to remove bias.

 

Given how critical LMG themselves have said this survey is to tech reviewing.

 

 

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21 minutes ago, mark_cameron said:

Nope.

 

Has ZERO impact. The survey only records powered hardware. I have my VIVE software running in the background.


Had zero impact.

I'm gonna cut it there because you probably misinterpreted what I said: I know they're probably not showing on the Steam hardware survey. What I'm saying is where are the runaway success VR only games? The Wii had such titles that made tremendous bank, the iPhone nowadays still have them. Game consoles have em and normal PC games have em as well. What about VR? Where's a VR game that shows "Oh....VR headsets are not detected in the survey but look at this game moving 500,000 or 1,000,000 copies"?

 

See what you guys are doing is solving half the equation and assuming you've got the answer: "The hardware survey doesn't detects VR headsets henceforth VR is doing really well!!" No, it's not: it it was the case we could point at VR games that are doing really well but none get sales numbers worth nothing at this time. 

Best I can find it's 150k number that's a definite improvement but not enough to declare "VR is O.K. Linus got it wrong!"

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4 minutes ago, Misanthrope said:

I'm gonna cut it there because you probably misinterpreted what I said: I know they're probably not showing on the Steam hardware survey. What I'm saying is where are the runaway success VR only games? The Wii had such titles that made tremendous bank, the iPhone nowadays still have them. What about VR? Where's a VR game that shows "Oh....VR headsets are not detected in the survey but look at this game moving 500,000 or 1,000,000 copies"?

 

See what you guys are doing is solving half the equation and assuming you've got the answer: "The hardware survey doesn't detects VR headsets henceforth VR is doing really well!!" No, it's not: it it was we could point at VR games that are doing really well but none get sales numbers worth nothing at this time. 

Best I can find it's 150k number that's a definite improvement but not enough to declare "VR is O.K. Linus got it wrong!"

I've already said. I believe that VR sales have been steady in Q3 and Q4 2016 but 'not spectacular'

 

I have also said that the manufacturers of VR are obfuscating and being coy about their sales.

 

I am also saying that you cannot look at 'runaway success' of VR-only titles.

 

Since a lot of titles that are likely to have high sales (car games as an illustration) can also be used without VR.


But are VR-capable.

 

 

What I have said is LMG should be careful and Steam have still not corrected their faulty hardware questionnaire (when it comes to VR).

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3 minutes ago, mark_cameron said:

What I have said is LMG should be careful and Steam have still not corrected their faulty questionnaire (when it comes to VR).

And what I said is that this is accurate yet an irrelevant aside to VR success as a new platform. There just isn't enough hardware adoption: it's steadiness is indicative of a very niche market among tech enthusiasts, not enough to sustain a completely new hardware paradigm.

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1 minute ago, Misanthrope said:

And what I said is that this is accurate yet an irrelevant aside to VR success as a new platform. There just isn't enough hardware adoption: it's steadiness is indicative of a very niche market among tech enthusiasts: not enough to sustain a completely new hardware paradigm.

Go have a look at LTT - You aren't ready for VR - SteamVR Performance Test

 

Then come back as you've completely missed the point of the OP and thread. Sorry.

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Just now, mark_cameron said:

Go have a look at LTT - You aren't ready for VR - SteamVR Performance Test

 

Then come back as you've completely missed the point of the OP and thread. Sorry.

Missing the point =/= Adding a different yet on topic point.

 

You can find a lot of justifications and rhetorical devices to reply with yet I'm just gonna wait for you to find a very successful VR game instead. No it might not be the main point of the thread and henceforth you are free to ignore it, I'm just saying that even if you wanted to answer me, you can't.

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2 minutes ago, Misanthrope said:

Missing the point =/= Adding a different yet on topic point.

 

You can find a lot of justifications and rhetorical devices to reply with yet I'm just gonna wait for you to find a very successful VR game instead. No it might not be the main point of the thread and henceforth you are free to ignore it, I'm just saying that even if you wanted to answer me, you can't.

I can ignore it as I own some spectacularly selling VR-capable titles (car racing games).

 

But which are not VR-specific titles. Plus the OP and thread is about:

 

Steam Hardware Survey problems and VR adoption.

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1 minute ago, mark_cameron said:

I can ignore it as I own some spectacularly selling VR-capable titles (car racing games).

So your 1 sale and Anecdotal Evidence saves VR? I'm sure your 50 bucks will help devs invest a few more million into future VR games.

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1 minute ago, mark_cameron said:

I can ignore it as I own some spectacularly selling VR-capable titles (car racing games).

 

But which are not VR-specific titles. Plus the OP and thread is about:

 

Steam Hardware Survey problems and VR adoption.

How successful are those VR titles? How many copies have sold for example?

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17 minutes ago, Misanthrope said:

I'm gonna cut it there because you probably misinterpreted what I said: I know they're probably not showing on the Steam hardware survey. What I'm saying is where are the runaway success VR only games? The Wii had such titles that made tremendous bank, the iPhone nowadays still have them. Game consoles have em and normal PC games have em as well. What about VR? Where's a VR game that shows "Oh....VR headsets are not detected in the survey but look at this game moving 500,000 or 1,000,000 copies"?

 

See what you guys are doing is solving half the equation and assuming you've got the answer: "The hardware survey doesn't detects VR headsets henceforth VR is doing really well!!" No, it's not: it it was the case we could point at VR games that are doing really well but none get sales numbers worth nothing at this time. 

Best I can find it's 150k number that's a definite improvement but not enough to declare "VR is O.K. Linus got it wrong!"

VR doesn't have to be a runaway success right now. It doesn't have to be Dota 2 numbers at this point. That's one of the problems here - everyone seems to be approaching this assuming it either sells a hundred million units or it's a complete and total failure forever. Which is ridiculous. The first TVs did not sell well. The first PCs didn't sell well either.

 

HTC publicly said the 140-150k numbers were an incorrect underestimate. How incorrect is anyone's guess, though. Anyway, hundreds of thousands of units sold in the first year of the first gen of VR is a success. Of course the numbers would have to improve later, if VR is to become self-sustaining. But that doesn't happen overnight.

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4 minutes ago, Misanthrope said:

So your 1 sale and Anecdotal Evidence saves VR? I'm sure your 50 bucks will help devs invest a few more million into future VR games.

 

3 minutes ago, Dabombinable said:

How successful are those VR titles? How many copies have sold for example?

 

Go have a look for yourselves:

 

http://steamspy.com/

 

But consider titles that might not be VR-specific but which are 'VR-capable'

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5 minutes ago, Sakkura said:

VR doesn't have to be a runaway success right now.

It does: investing in new hardware for people producing it is a very risky proposition if there are no hopes of return it will go the way of other similar technologies (3D for example) only since it's much more expensive to produce it will be scrapped all that much faster.

 

Reality is nobody has enough money to bankroll billions of investment for measly 150k units moved and just as tepid game sales.

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6 minutes ago, Sakkura said:

VR doesn't have to be a runaway success right now. It doesn't have to be Dota 2 numbers at this point. That's one of the problems here - everyone seems to be approaching this assuming it either sells a hundred million units or it's a complete and total failure forever. Which is ridiculous. The first TVs did not sell well. The first PCs didn't sell well either.

 

HTC publicly said the 140-150k numbers were an incorrect underestimate. How incorrect is anyone's guess, though. Anyway, hundreds of thousands of units sold in the first year of the first gen of VR is a success. Of course the numbers would have to improve later, if VR is to become self-sustaining. But that doesn't happen overnight.

It seems that this is another instance when STEAM's methodology has lead to misleading results.

 

 

As of Q1 2017 - LTT's currently running at 62% VR Ready based on community responses.

 

And how many of those might be upgraded rigs during the holiday's ?

 

Therefore, we can say that > 60 % are VR ready

 

Meaning that > 60% of potential steam users are capable of running VR.

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1 minute ago, Misanthrope said:

It does: investing in new hardware for people producing it is a very risky proposition if there are no hopes of return it will go the way of other similar technologies (3D for example) only since it's much more expensive to produce it will be scrapped all that much faster.

 

Reality is nobody has enough money to bankroll billions of investments for measly 150k units moved and just as tepid game sales.

It's not risky in the long run, and it's only a few billion dollars. Unlike 3D it's a new medium, so the likely returns are far greater.

 

And as I said, that 150K figure was publicly debunked by HTC.

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2 minutes ago, mark_cameron said:

As of Q1 2017 - LTT's currently running at 62% VR Ready based on community responses.

 

And how many of those might be upgraded rigs during the holiday's ?

Probably less than 1% of the 62% in fact I'd be surprised if it cracks over 0.5% of those 62% ready. VR ready is utterly fucking meaningless to know who is going to be "ready" to spend 1000 fucking bucks which is very little people.

 

See this is the fundamental problem you're deluting yourself into VR guys: You're assuming all PC enthusiasts are also potential VR enthusiasts. Guess what? Sales shows that most of us are fucking not. Tons of people happen to get VR ready hardware and VR capable games like Elite: Dangerous just to have a regular monitor experience. High end hardware is not a direct, or even an indirect or implied correlation to interest in VR.

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6 minutes ago, Sakkura said:

It's not risky in the long run

Again this is straight up presuppositional: you're assuming there will be a long run. Investors and hardware companies don't look at things this way for the same reason most people don't say "But if we keep investing in flying cars we will be the first and only company with one and potentially become the richest company in history!"

 

Flying cars are fucking impractical, needlessly dangerous and technology just isn't fucking viable yet so nobody is throwing money at flying car projects.

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3 minutes ago, Sakkura said:

It's not risky in the long run, and it's only a few billion dollars. Unlike 3D it's a new medium, so the likely returns are far greater.

 

And as I said, that 150K figure was publicly debunked by HTC.

its the overall software ecosystem that is important.

 

We I think also have to move away from 'VR' titles.

 

To using terminology like 'VR Capable' titles and the sales thereof.

 

Since otherwise again people will start misquoting what is happening in the market.

 

The other point is this. VR inclusion into games is on the increase as an option.

 

I use Warhammer: Vermintide VR - Hero Trialshttp://store.steampowered.com/app/410390

 

As an illustration. Released 20 December 2016. To enable existing users with VR to use.

 

 

I also think it important that Oculus and HTC and the industry try and standardise and increase adoption between formats.

 

Trying to put roadblocks up in what amounts to a war will simply turn people way.

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Misanthrope said:

Probably less than 1% of the 62% in fact I'd be surprised if it cracks over 0.5% of those 62% ready. VR ready is utterly fucking meaningless to know who is going to be "ready" to spend 1000 fucking bucks which is very little people.

 

See this is the fundamental problem you're deluting yourself into VR guys: You're assuming all PC enthusiasts are also potential VR enthusiasts. Guess what? Sales shows that most of us are fucking not. Tons of people happen to get VR ready hardware and VR capable games like Elite: Dangerous just to have a regular monitor experience. High end hardware is not a direct, or even an indirect or implied correlation to interest in VR.

I can see you're not interested in proper debate and are simply trolling.

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