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How much better will Pascal/Arctic Islands be over GCN1.2 and Maxwell?

A lot of guys have been asking "Should I wait for Pascal or Arctic Islands, or buy a current generation Flagship (390X, 980, Fury X, 980 Ti)?"


 


It's a tough question to answer. It comes down to a lot of factors. Most importantly, what resolution are you running and what framerates are you looking to attain? Are you planning to CF or SLI, or do you want to run a single card for maximum reliability? Pascal and Arctic Islands are going to be the first process node shrink in about 4.5 years when it's finally released, and GPU's will feature new architecture and HBM2 memory. Needless to say, 2016 should be an exciting year in graphics cards.


 


I made a spreadsheet to show how former GPU flagships from nvidia and AMD have grown by generation. While we can't assume that Pascal and Arctic Islands will make the same jump as former process node shrinks, I think we can pretty safely predict that the jumps will be larger than non-process node shrink generations.


 


The graphs show pretty clearly how important a process node shrink is, and it's most well defined by looking at the AMD graph. nvidia's graph is pretty clear as well, but they've released more intermediary "Flagship" cards (280 > 285, 780 > 780 Ti, 980 > 980 Ti), which makes it slightly less pronounced (but it's still there). nvidia also has one outlier (the GTX 280), which jumped ahead by quite a bit without a node shrink, but I don't see it as much of a factor.


 


Here's the spreadsheet (if you're a redditor, you may have seen this already):


 


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1awOqzOXrnhwgcUP7ORB4vzbtdjXwQ-2t6xiwRiYkENo/edit#gid=0


 


  • Why did you take 4 hours out of your morning to build this spreadsheet?

I made it to explain with history the reason for the hype surrounding the forthcoming nvidia (Pascal) and AMD (Greenland) GPU's, and because an earthquake woke up my fiancee who later woke me up at 3am to tell me it was confirmed to be an earthquake, and I've been up drinking coffee since.


  • "But we won't see a full fledged massive die flagship until the end of the process node's cycle"

WHO CARES! The biggest improvement will be to the first available flagship chip on the node, as it always has been.


  • "If you look at it this way, there's always going to be a better upgrade around the corner"

This is admittedly true, but it doesn't tell the whole story. A node shrink is historically the biggest jump in performance, and within this spreadsheet is the statistics that prove it.


  • "AMD is trash" "nVidia fanboys are sheep"

Don't be a dummy. Buy whatever is the best bang for the buck for you. Are you waiting for Pascal? Your best bet would be to wait for both to arrive so you can make your best purchase. If one turns out to be faster than the other, you will likely see the slower one drop in price, followed by the faster one to stay competitive. Have a look at what's happening between the Fury X and 980 Ti right now.


  • "Why didn't you include Titan cards?"

Because they're $999 new. I limited this to single GPU 'Flagship' cards. I'm pretty sure every card on here except the Fury X is available from partners with aftermarket coolers and custom PCB's.


  • "But my card can overclock way higher"

I built this spreadsheet with reference cards running reference clocks so that you can compare Apples to Apples within the ATi/AMD or nVidia ecosystem. Chasing down which cards were better overclockers simply takes way too much time and really has no bearing on what the future cards will be.


  • Why didn't you include any benchmarks/charts/comparisons/real info?!

You have to click on the different sheets along the bottom. The first page is just a spec comparison.


 


If you're Linus, Luke or any of the LTT nerds (staff): Joe the janitor says hello.

4790k 4.9GHz @ 1.375v, HD 7970, 850 EVO SSD's, Corsair 750D Airflow Edition, SeaSonic 860w Platinum.

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This question can only be ignored as there is NO answer.

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Seraph (Laptop 2) CPU:i7 6700HQ GPU:GTX 970M 3GB RAM:2x8GB DDR4Storage: 256GB Samsung 951 + 1TB Toshiba HDD Model:Asus GL502VT

Windows 10 is now MSX! - http://linustechtips.com/main/topic/440190-can-we-start-calling-windows-10/page-6

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We don't have a magical link with nvidia and amd that delivers us information that is not available in any other place. The cards haven't even been presented yet, we can't know how they will perform.

Don't ask to ask, just ask... please 🤨

sudo chmod -R 000 /*

What is scaling and how does it work? Asus PB287Q unboxing! Console alternatives :D Watch Netflix with Kodi on Arch Linux Sharing folders over the internet using SSH Beginner's Guide To LTT (by iamdarkyoshi)

Sauron'stm Product Scores:

Spoiler

Just a list of my personal scores for some products, in no particular order, with brief comments. I just got the idea to do them so they aren't many for now :)

Don't take these as complete reviews or final truths - they are just my personal impressions on products I may or may not have used, summed up in a couple of sentences and a rough score. All scores take into account the unit's price and time of release, heavily so, therefore don't expect absolute performance to be reflected here.

 

-Lenovo Thinkpad X220 - [8/10]

Spoiler

A durable and reliable machine that is relatively lightweight, has all the hardware it needs to never feel sluggish and has a great IPS matte screen. Downsides are mostly due to its age, most notably the screen resolution of 1366x768 and usb 2.0 ports.

 

-Apple Macbook (2015) - [Garbage -/10]

Spoiler

From my perspective, this product has no redeeming factors given its price and the competition. It is underpowered, overpriced, impractical due to its single port and is made redundant even by Apple's own iPad pro line.

 

-OnePlus X - [7/10]

Spoiler

A good phone for the price. It does everything I (and most people) need without being sluggish and has no particularly bad flaws. The lack of recent software updates and relatively barebones feature kit (most notably the lack of 5GHz wifi, biometric sensors and backlight for the capacitive buttons) prevent it from being exceptional.

 

-Microsoft Surface Book 2 - [Garbage - -/10]

Spoiler

Overpriced and rushed, offers nothing notable compared to the competition, doesn't come with an adequate charger despite the premium price. Worse than the Macbook for not even offering the small plus sides of having macOS. Buy a Razer Blade if you want high performance in a (relatively) light package.

 

-Intel Core i7 2600/k - [9/10]

Spoiler

Quite possibly Intel's best product launch ever. It had all the bleeding edge features of the time, it came with a very significant performance improvement over its predecessor and it had a soldered heatspreader, allowing for efficient cooling and great overclocking. Even the "locked" version could be overclocked through the multiplier within (quite reasonable) limits.

 

-Apple iPad Pro - [5/10]

Spoiler

A pretty good product, sunk by its price (plus the extra cost of the physical keyboard and the pencil). Buy it if you don't mind the Apple tax and are looking for a very light office machine with an excellent digitizer. Particularly good for rich students. Bad for cheap tinkerers like myself.

 

 

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We don't have a magical link with nvidia and amd that delivers us information that is not available in any other place. The cards haven't even been presented yet, we can't know how they will perform.

The information isn't there, but predictions can be made, and most likely very accurately.

 

For example, I'm betting the next Intel CPU will probably have an IPC improvement of 3-5%. That's not hard to see based on history.

4790k 4.9GHz @ 1.375v, HD 7970, 850 EVO SSD's, Corsair 750D Airflow Edition, SeaSonic 860w Platinum.

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The information isn't there, but predictions can be made, and most likely very accurately.

 

For example, I'm betting the next Intel CPU will probably have an IPC improvement of 3-5%. That's not hard to see based on history.

 

So what would you have predicted for haswell, given that the previous architectural change gave upwards of 40% more performance than previous chips?

 

You can't rely on these predictions, they are nothing more than guesses until we have the numbers.

Don't ask to ask, just ask... please 🤨

sudo chmod -R 000 /*

What is scaling and how does it work? Asus PB287Q unboxing! Console alternatives :D Watch Netflix with Kodi on Arch Linux Sharing folders over the internet using SSH Beginner's Guide To LTT (by iamdarkyoshi)

Sauron'stm Product Scores:

Spoiler

Just a list of my personal scores for some products, in no particular order, with brief comments. I just got the idea to do them so they aren't many for now :)

Don't take these as complete reviews or final truths - they are just my personal impressions on products I may or may not have used, summed up in a couple of sentences and a rough score. All scores take into account the unit's price and time of release, heavily so, therefore don't expect absolute performance to be reflected here.

 

-Lenovo Thinkpad X220 - [8/10]

Spoiler

A durable and reliable machine that is relatively lightweight, has all the hardware it needs to never feel sluggish and has a great IPS matte screen. Downsides are mostly due to its age, most notably the screen resolution of 1366x768 and usb 2.0 ports.

 

-Apple Macbook (2015) - [Garbage -/10]

Spoiler

From my perspective, this product has no redeeming factors given its price and the competition. It is underpowered, overpriced, impractical due to its single port and is made redundant even by Apple's own iPad pro line.

 

-OnePlus X - [7/10]

Spoiler

A good phone for the price. It does everything I (and most people) need without being sluggish and has no particularly bad flaws. The lack of recent software updates and relatively barebones feature kit (most notably the lack of 5GHz wifi, biometric sensors and backlight for the capacitive buttons) prevent it from being exceptional.

 

-Microsoft Surface Book 2 - [Garbage - -/10]

Spoiler

Overpriced and rushed, offers nothing notable compared to the competition, doesn't come with an adequate charger despite the premium price. Worse than the Macbook for not even offering the small plus sides of having macOS. Buy a Razer Blade if you want high performance in a (relatively) light package.

 

-Intel Core i7 2600/k - [9/10]

Spoiler

Quite possibly Intel's best product launch ever. It had all the bleeding edge features of the time, it came with a very significant performance improvement over its predecessor and it had a soldered heatspreader, allowing for efficient cooling and great overclocking. Even the "locked" version could be overclocked through the multiplier within (quite reasonable) limits.

 

-Apple iPad Pro - [5/10]

Spoiler

A pretty good product, sunk by its price (plus the extra cost of the physical keyboard and the pencil). Buy it if you don't mind the Apple tax and are looking for a very light office machine with an excellent digitizer. Particularly good for rich students. Bad for cheap tinkerers like myself.

 

 

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If both AMD and Nvidia decide not to be a douchebag and market the card as super efficient or best performance/watt, their next flagship will be at least 80% as powerful as their current one.

HD7970(Tick + Tock) is almost twice as powerful as HD6970 though not at launch.

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So what would you have predicted for haswell, given that the previous architectural change gave upwards of 40% more performance than previous chips?

 

You can't rely on these predictions, they are nothing more than guesses until we have the numbers.

 

http://www.anandtech.com/show/9483/intel-skylake-review-6700k-6600k-ddr4-ddr3-ipc-6th-generation/9

 

Anandtech shows that:

  • Sandy Bridge to Ivy Bridge: Average ~5.8% Up
  • Ivy Bridge to Haswell: Average ~11.2% Up
  • Haswell to Broadwell: Average ~3.3% Up
  • Broadwell to Skylake (DDR3): Average ~2.4% Up
  • Broadwell to Skylake (DDR4): Average ~2.7% Up
  • Haswell to Skylake (DDR3): Average ~5.7% Up.

Predictions aren't meant to be 100% accurate, they're intended to be an estimate. If you read the charts, you'll see that the average prediction for process node shrinks for modern GPU's is 40%-60% in comparison to non-node shrink generation increases of 10%-36%. Do you really think this is out of line?

4790k 4.9GHz @ 1.375v, HD 7970, 850 EVO SSD's, Corsair 750D Airflow Edition, SeaSonic 860w Platinum.

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J

 

http://www.anandtech.com/show/9483/intel-skylake-review-6700k-6600k-ddr4-ddr3-ipc-6th-generation/9

 

Anandtech shows that:

  • Sandy Bridge to Ivy Bridge: Average ~5.8% Up
  • Ivy Bridge to Haswell: Average ~11.2% Up
  • Haswell to Broadwell: Average ~3.3% Up
  • Broadwell to Skylake (DDR3): Average ~2.4% Up
  • Broadwell to Skylake (DDR4): Average ~2.7% Up
  • Haswell to Skylake (DDR3): Average ~5.7% Up.

Predictions aren't meant to be 100% accurate, they're intended to be an estimate. If you read the charts, you'll see that the average prediction for process node shrinks for modern GPU's is 40%-60% in comparison to non-node shrink generation increases of 10%-36%. Do you really think this is out of line?

Jump from Sandy to Ivy was around 15% and temps were reduced by 25%

Archangel (Desktop) CPU: i5 4590 GPU:Asus R9 280  3GB RAM:HyperX Beast 2x4GBPSU:SeaSonic S12G 750W Mobo:GA-H97m-HD3 Case:CM Silencio 650 Storage:1 TB WD Red
Celestial (Laptop 1) CPU:i7 4720HQ GPU:GTX 860M 4GB RAM:2x4GB SK Hynix DDR3Storage: 250GB 850 EVO Model:Lenovo Y50-70
Seraph (Laptop 2) CPU:i7 6700HQ GPU:GTX 970M 3GB RAM:2x8GB DDR4Storage: 256GB Samsung 951 + 1TB Toshiba HDD Model:Asus GL502VT

Windows 10 is now MSX! - http://linustechtips.com/main/topic/440190-can-we-start-calling-windows-10/page-6

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http://www.anandtech.com/show/9483/intel-skylake-review-6700k-6600k-ddr4-ddr3-ipc-6th-generation/9

 

Anandtech shows that:

  • Sandy Bridge to Ivy Bridge: Average ~5.8% Up
  • Ivy Bridge to Haswell: Average ~11.2% Up
  • Haswell to Broadwell: Average ~3.3% Up
  • Broadwell to Skylake (DDR3): Average ~2.4% Up
  • Broadwell to Skylake (DDR4): Average ~2.7% Up
  • Haswell to Skylake (DDR3): Average ~5.7% Up.

Predictions aren't meant to be 100% accurate, they're intended to be an estimate. If you read the charts, you'll see that the average prediction for process node shrinks for modern GPU's is 40%-60% in comparison to non-node shrink generation increases of 10%-36%. Do you really think this is out of line?

 

again, you cannot know. Maybe intel will give us 6 cores on the consumer platform. Maybe there's something in their plans we don't know about.

 

As for gpus, that's as random as it gets. Some generations are mostly rebrands, some are major improvements, some are architectural improvements with little performance gain (for example maxwell before the 980ti, which took 8 months to surface).

Don't ask to ask, just ask... please 🤨

sudo chmod -R 000 /*

What is scaling and how does it work? Asus PB287Q unboxing! Console alternatives :D Watch Netflix with Kodi on Arch Linux Sharing folders over the internet using SSH Beginner's Guide To LTT (by iamdarkyoshi)

Sauron'stm Product Scores:

Spoiler

Just a list of my personal scores for some products, in no particular order, with brief comments. I just got the idea to do them so they aren't many for now :)

Don't take these as complete reviews or final truths - they are just my personal impressions on products I may or may not have used, summed up in a couple of sentences and a rough score. All scores take into account the unit's price and time of release, heavily so, therefore don't expect absolute performance to be reflected here.

 

-Lenovo Thinkpad X220 - [8/10]

Spoiler

A durable and reliable machine that is relatively lightweight, has all the hardware it needs to never feel sluggish and has a great IPS matte screen. Downsides are mostly due to its age, most notably the screen resolution of 1366x768 and usb 2.0 ports.

 

-Apple Macbook (2015) - [Garbage -/10]

Spoiler

From my perspective, this product has no redeeming factors given its price and the competition. It is underpowered, overpriced, impractical due to its single port and is made redundant even by Apple's own iPad pro line.

 

-OnePlus X - [7/10]

Spoiler

A good phone for the price. It does everything I (and most people) need without being sluggish and has no particularly bad flaws. The lack of recent software updates and relatively barebones feature kit (most notably the lack of 5GHz wifi, biometric sensors and backlight for the capacitive buttons) prevent it from being exceptional.

 

-Microsoft Surface Book 2 - [Garbage - -/10]

Spoiler

Overpriced and rushed, offers nothing notable compared to the competition, doesn't come with an adequate charger despite the premium price. Worse than the Macbook for not even offering the small plus sides of having macOS. Buy a Razer Blade if you want high performance in a (relatively) light package.

 

-Intel Core i7 2600/k - [9/10]

Spoiler

Quite possibly Intel's best product launch ever. It had all the bleeding edge features of the time, it came with a very significant performance improvement over its predecessor and it had a soldered heatspreader, allowing for efficient cooling and great overclocking. Even the "locked" version could be overclocked through the multiplier within (quite reasonable) limits.

 

-Apple iPad Pro - [5/10]

Spoiler

A pretty good product, sunk by its price (plus the extra cost of the physical keyboard and the pencil). Buy it if you don't mind the Apple tax and are looking for a very light office machine with an excellent digitizer. Particularly good for rich students. Bad for cheap tinkerers like myself.

 

 

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"You cannot know"

Is correct.

"You cannot roughly predict"

Is not.

4790k 4.9GHz @ 1.375v, HD 7970, 850 EVO SSD's, Corsair 750D Airflow Edition, SeaSonic 860w Platinum.

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We do have Nvidia's CES press conference to look forward to unfortunately I'm afraid it'll be only about their new Tegra releases/ boring car stuff.

CPU: i7 6700k @ 4.6ghz | CASE: Corsair 780T White Edition | MB: Asus Z170 Deluxe | CPU Cooling: EK Predator 360 | GPU: NVIDIA Titan X Pascal w/ EKWB nickel waterblock | PSU: EVGA 850w P2 | RAM: 16GB DDR4 Corsair Domintator Platinum 2800mhz | Storage: Samsung 850 EVO 500GB | OS: Win 10 Pro x64 | Monitor: Acer Predator X34/HTC VIVE Keyboard: CM Storm Trigger-Z | Mouse: Razer Taipan | Sound: Audio Technica ATH-M50x / Klipsch Promedia 2.1 Sound System 

 

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We do have Nvidia's CES press conference to look forward to unfortunately I'm afraid it'll be only about their new Tegra releases/ boring car stuff.

I believe you're right. We may however start to hear about Pascal when nVidia's GPU Conference rolls around in April? (March?)

4790k 4.9GHz @ 1.375v, HD 7970, 850 EVO SSD's, Corsair 750D Airflow Edition, SeaSonic 860w Platinum.

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I believe you're right. We may however start to hear about Pascal when nVidia's GPU Conference rolls around in April? (March?)

Yes that what be GTC in the Spring which is when is they usually talk about and launch their new GPUS.

CPU: i7 6700k @ 4.6ghz | CASE: Corsair 780T White Edition | MB: Asus Z170 Deluxe | CPU Cooling: EK Predator 360 | GPU: NVIDIA Titan X Pascal w/ EKWB nickel waterblock | PSU: EVGA 850w P2 | RAM: 16GB DDR4 Corsair Domintator Platinum 2800mhz | Storage: Samsung 850 EVO 500GB | OS: Win 10 Pro x64 | Monitor: Acer Predator X34/HTC VIVE Keyboard: CM Storm Trigger-Z | Mouse: Razer Taipan | Sound: Audio Technica ATH-M50x / Klipsch Promedia 2.1 Sound System 

 

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