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possible leaked new gen intel CPU performance

StephanTW

So to get a quick disclaimer out of the way, the article is in Persian , I can't read Persian nor do i know how credible these numbers are, therefore I felt I could not place it in tech news.
Anyways on to the story:
https://sakhtafzarmag.com/قیمت-و-بنچمارک-های-پردازنده-های-alder-lake-اینتل/


and tweet with a chart translated 1436006269442134016 https://twitter.com/momomo_us/status/1436006269442134016

 

A supposed alder lake CPU benchmark came out on a website showing similar or better performance compared to current top of the line 5000 series AMD CPU's, while being a way bit cheaper is msrp.

In my opinion if true it would require a response from AMD to lower CPU prices to match price to performance, that is if it launches at the named prices on the site and if stock is actually there.

edit1: for some reason embedded tweet didnt work as intended

Edited by StephanTW

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<-- Moved to CPUs, Motherboards, and Memory -->

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I think AMD will lower desktop prices if Alder Lake has better performance. I think they'll also drop Threadripper 5000 series at the same time as Alder Lake to try to take some focus off it at the high end. The 12900K might be really good, but it'll look like a Celeron compared to a 5990X.

 

Hopefully, Intel can come back with at least a 24 core 12980XE so they can compete with the low-end Threadripper CPUs. I'd hate to see AMD get too comfortable in the HEDT scene.

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i keep seeing the same 10% floated in single core, which isn't great but it's something, multicore is ~equal, the wildcard is the ddr5 4800 that's used, gotta see what it performs like with higher speeds.

 

despite the hype, the leaks have been very disappointing to me so far, already looking to raptor lake tbh

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3 hours ago, xg32 said:

despite the hype, the leaks have been very disappointing to me so far, already looking to raptor lake tbh

I think we are about to get a performance jump within the next 2years. Alder Lake, Raptor Lake, Zen3dv wont cut it for me to upgrade from a 8700k (gamer perspective)

If we look at transistor densities we can see why:

- AMD with TSMC 7nm has transistor density of 96.5 MTr/mm² (Zen3/3dv)
- Intel 10nm will have transistor density of 100.76 MTr/mm² (alder+raptorlake?)
- allegedly TSMC 5nm EUV will have a transistor density of 171.3 MTr/mm² (zen4)

- Intel 7nm is estimated to have a transistor density of 237.18 MTr/mm² (Meteor Lake)

- 3nm TSMC estimated 292.21 MTr/mm²

- 2nm IBM estimated 333.33 MTr/mm²


i think ddr5 will be an improvement ofc, but i also think that the CPUs themself will just improve so fast that no matter what you buy you kinda feel sad if you dont go for the latest and greatest everytime, this puts u in a buying loop.

i have to filter, speculate and do smart investments based on performance to price and evaluate the possible time where performance will match my demands, so a CPU upgrade has to offer the biggest possible performance uplift basically without buyers remorse. A 5year long-lastingness is expected and necessary from a CPU upgrade to economically justify it.

 

The problem is tho, if i go for alderlake, boards will suck and ddr5 ramspeed will suck compared to raptorlake which will just be 1year later. They are also going to change the max L3 cache on the i9 because it will have more efficiency cores and also do something to L2 cache to improve gaming performance and raptorlake most likely will clock atleast 200mhz Higher. All things considered there is a maturing process that probably will go relatively fast, because intel is all about improving fast to regain the crown.
 

There is multiple examples. If we take zen1 and zen2, those sucked they needed to mature until zen3 to be competitive at all. Otherwise there is the 8700k example, where it has literally almost infinite value because not enough improvements were made to really see the HUGE gains even until now again from a gaming perspective. There is gains, there is better ram speeds and there is better boards but this basically didnt translated into gaming performance gains large or relevant enough to play the silicon lottery again. apart from bigger L3 cache with the 10900k. So the question is do you think Intels CPUs will be like zen and improve greatly, or do you think it will just be minor performance uplift into minor performance uplift.
 
what im additionally thinking is:
2023 -> Meteor Lake
2023 -> Nivdia 4000series
2023 -> 480hz Monitors
 
So overall on paper 2023 looks like a complete new level in Tech. And those industries work together planning products up to 5years ahead of their release. Thats why i suspect a major performance uplift in that timeframe. The density numbers of the process nodes further confirm this speculation. So that time might be well chosen for an "upgrade sweetspot" Im asking myself every day, can i wait and stay another 2years on my 8700k and 2080ti. And the more i think about it, the more i say yes... i probably can.. thinking about all the money ive saved just for not upgrading.. while still having really good performance.

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Then there's software lagging years behind.

 

Even if 2023 brings huge strides in performance, most games will be limited by the constraints of lower end Zen2/RDNA found in consoles for the next 5 years....

 

I'll probably be a sucker but idk, it probably won't mean much in terms of actual gameplay 

Before you reply to my post, REFRESH. 99.99% chance I edited my post. 

 

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10 hours ago, YoungBlade said:

I think they'll also drop Threadripper 5000 series

hope we see some leaked benchmarks for those soon aswell, wonder how well it would do against 3000 series, and if it be in the same price bracket as the 3000 series

 

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6 minutes ago, StephanTW said:

hope we see some leaked benchmarks for those soon aswell, wonder how well it would do against 3000 series, and if it be in the same price bracket as the 3000 series

If we assume an equivalent uplift for the 5990X over the 3990X compared to the 5950X over the 3950X and 5900X over the 3900X, then it should have around a 10-20% improvement in multi-core performance. So a Cinebench R23 score somewhere between 81,800 and 89,300. For reference, the 5950X scores about 28,600. If the 12900K truly does perform 10% better than the 5950X, as the R20 numbers in the leak from late July suggested, then it would score about 31,500.

 

However, I have a suspicion that the leaked result was of an "overclocked" 12900K, not a stock one. I know the leaker said it was stock, but Intel boards have been known to do things like enable MCE out-of-the-box, which is technically an overclock, or to remove power limits by default, which is a pseudo-overclock, even if nothing manually was done in BIOS. If that's the case, the 5950X might still win, because when overclocked to 4.7GHz all core, the 5950X gains about 20% in Cinebench R23, giving it a score of around 34,300.

 

All of this is speculation until actual reviews come out, of course. We shall soon know how this all plays out.

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8 minutes ago, YoungBlade said:

All of this is speculation until actual reviews come out, of course. We shall soon know how this all plays out.

fair, but are we then to assume since 12th gen is expected to release in november that 5000 series will be then aswell, cause last expected release date for 5000 series I saw was august 2021, but you know I fear that boat has sailed already seeing as its almost mid september

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1 minute ago, StephanTW said:

fair, but are we then to assume since 12th gen is expected to release in november that 5000 series will be then aswell, cause last expected release date for 5000 series I saw was august 2021, but you know I fear that boat has sailed already seeing as its almost mid september

I have no inside information, but I would guess that AMD is currently building up Threadripper stock and is planning to release either shortly before or shortly after 12th gen. Both split the attention of the tech press and enthusiasts, but I suspect they'll do it after so that there are comparison numbers. They'd want the charts that show the entire Threadripper line-up beating Intel's best offering, which can only happen after the Intel embargo is lifted.

 

The issue is that the 3960X had an MSRP of $1399. If the 5960X matches that price, then a $600 Intel chip that gets you ~75% of the performance could still look attractive unless you need the quad-channel memory and/or tons of PCIe lanes. Unfortunately, I suspect that 5000 series Threadripper is going to do what the desktop line did: bump up prices across the board. In that case, while Threadripper's hype might throw water on the fire, it won't extinguish it, because Intel has a viable option.

 

Hence, my thought that AMD will drop prices of the 5000 series parts. If the 5950X dropped to match the 12900K in price, then it could still be an attractive choice as its on a more mature platform with (likely) cheaper motherboards. However, Intel's platform does offer DDR5 and PCIe 5, which while they might not actually be that great this early on, are likely to still be attractive to users looking for the latest-and-greatest. At least at price parity the choice would be difficult, whereas right now, if the 12900K is that good, the 5950X would look stupid.

 

And while I don't think they'll do it, I believe the best way that AMD could counter is by releasing sub-$250 desktop parts. A 5600 non-X for $220, 5300X for $160, and 5100 for $120 could destroy Intel in the low-end since it looks like the 12400 is going to be the lowest-end option, and it's got a price bump over the 11400 without offering any additional cores or threads. Being able to put a 5100 on a cheap B550 board for under $200 combined would be killer, completely destroying Intel's appeal to budget builders. And in the current market, releasing the 5300G to DIY and/or lowering the prices of the 5600G and 5700G could help, too. The problem is that AMD has little incentive to cannibalize their own sales, so unless Alder Lake really takes off, I don't think they'll bother.

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I plan on getting one either way, good times ahead. So far I have no plans for AM5, but we'll see. If they drop another AM4 CPU I for sure wont buy AM5. 

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if they lower the 5950x to match the intel one, I most likely will get a 5950x, would mean I'd only need to swap MB and CPU cooler, though I'd need a new waterblock then since i don't think the EK-supremacy EVO had any brackets that would fit am4 systems, seeing as am1 was bearly coming out when I build this pc

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22 hours ago, Mister Woof said:

Then there's software lagging years behind.

 

Even if 2023 brings huge strides in performance, most games will be limited by the constraints of lower end Zen2/RDNA found in consoles for the next 5 years....

 

I'll probably be a sucker but idk, it probably won't mean much in terms of actual gameplay 

Yes and no, this is a common partly misinterpretation of overall gaming development and overestimating the relevance of consoles for PC gaming.

While there is restrictions for consoles in terms of FPS, PC's break these limits all the time. The days of "most games are bad console ports" is kinda over.

In modern games there might be a similar-ish baseline for both PC and Consoles, but apart from that the optimisation goes far apart.

Not even only for consoles but also for different PC hardware aswell.

 

The very true part of this is that there is less optimisation towards parallelism, restricting how many cores can be efficiently used by games to gain performance.

Alot of games can utilize alot of cores without increasing the performance at all, cores are just swapping the load to different cores without really granting a gain.

There is just not that much stuff you could Multithread, 1core doing physics, 1core doing sound, 1core doing ethernet, 1core doing whatever,

things start to run out real quick without parallelism which would allow multiple cores to work together on a task at the same time,

like 3cores doing physics, 2cores doing sound etc. But consoles arent the only reason for this.

 

- optimisation towards parallelism is expansive because it takes alot of time to do it right and keep everything stable.

- optimisations main focus in general leaning more towards low end systems to widen the field of potential buyers.

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1 hour ago, DarkSmith2 said:

Yes and no, this is a common partly misinterpretation of overall gaming development and overestimating the relevance of consoles for PC gaming.

While there is restrictions for consoles in terms of FPS, PC's break these limits all the time. The days of "most games are bad console ports" is kinda over.

In modern games there might be a similar-ish baseline for both PC and Consoles, but apart from that the optimisation goes far apart.

Not even only for consoles but also for different PC hardware aswell.

 

The very true part of this is that there is less optimisation towards parallelism, restricting how many cores can be efficiently used by games to gain performance.

Alot of games can utilize alot of cores without increasing the performance at all, cores are just swapping the load to different cores without really granting a gain.

There is just not that much stuff you could Multithread, 1core doing physics, 1core doing sound, 1core doing ethernet, 1core doing whatever,

things start to run out real quick without parallelism which would allow multiple cores to work together on a task at the same time,

like 3cores doing physics, 2cores doing sound etc. But consoles arent the only reason for this.

 

- optimisation towards parallelism is expansive because it takes alot of time to do it right and keep everything stable.

- optimisations main focus in general leaning more towards low end systems to widen the field of potential buyers.

Maybe limited was a bad word choice. 

 

I simply mean that if you have at least equal CPU IPC (not number of cores) to current gen consoles, you won't really need more than that to be able to play games at or around the same level as the consoles.

 

For now, it means Zen2 at 3.5ghz,. The 8700k already surpasses that, so I don't foresee needing more than that for the next 5 years to get decent or good performance.

 

Obviously you can strive for more than console level performance, but I think by the time an 8700k feels insufficient it will be at the tail end of the current console generation's lifespan, much like how CP2077 runs like poopoo on PS4 and FX CPUs.

 

Game developers won't make games that need more than the PS5's CPU can handle until the PS5 is ready to phase out. Like CP2077, the cusp of a generation, where having new PC hardware really shows the gap between current PC hardware and 5+ year old FX tech.

 

By then, we'll be way past Alder Lake.

Before you reply to my post, REFRESH. 99.99% chance I edited my post. 

 

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2 hours ago, Mister Woof said:

Maybe limited was a bad word choice. 

 

I simply mean that if you have at least equal CPU IPC (not number of cores) to current gen consoles, you won't really need more than that to be able to play games at or around the same level as the consoles.

 

For now, it means Zen2 at 3.5ghz,. The 8700k already surpasses that, so I don't foresee needing more than that for the next 5 years to get decent or good performance.

 

Obviously you can strive for more than console level performance, but I think by the time an 8700k feels insufficient it will be at the tail end of the current console generation's lifespan, much like how CP2077 runs like poopoo on PS4 and FX CPUs.

 

Game developers won't make games that need more than the PS5's CPU can handle until the PS5 is ready to phase out. Like CP2077, the cusp of a generation, where having new PC hardware really shows the gap between current PC hardware and 5+ year old FX tech.

 

By then, we'll be way past Alder Lake.

Yea but demand for high refreshrate gaming is rising, back in the day nobody imagined being able to play games at high framerates/refreshrates on consoles.

nobody even thought that consoles would increasingly be played on a Monitor instead of a TV. If alot of people want something, there is a market for it.

Consoles are in constant pressure to follow PC trends. Not the other way around.

 

Good performance is relative.

For me with most games, 60fps gaming is outdated and unbearable, I just cant take the motionblur and inputlag of 60fps gaming anymore.. especially on consoles with all the additional artifcial motionblur on top of it, just to keep the performance up. Im getting motionsick, getting headaches, eyes hurt and it makes alot less fun when its visually just "dirty" well unless its a game where motionclarity and inputlag doesnt matter. (chess, RTS or something..)

 

i feel mostly fine with everything at around 100fps/hz. 

I think going for 120/144hz for consoles and maybe 240hz for really competitive shooters in the future is a step in the right direction,

beyond that point you'll always be in diminishing returns and for most people even in "overkill" territory.

 

For PC gaming on the other hand, i see no limits. When my PC is starting to be far apart from the best possible gaming performance, ill consider to upgrade reasonably. Its usually a 5year cycle for CPUs, despite my 2600k that lasted 7years and every 2nd gen GPU. F.e. Nividia 900series->2000series->4000series

 

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7 hours ago, DarkSmith2 said:

Yea but demand for high refreshrate gaming is rising, back in the day nobody imagined being able to play games at high framerates/refreshrates on consoles.

nobody even thought that consoles would increasingly be played on a Monitor instead of a TV. If alot of people want something, there is a market for it.

Consoles are in constant pressure to follow PC trends. Not the other way around.

 

Good performance is relative.

For me with most games, 60fps gaming is outdated and unbearable, I just cant take the motionblur and inputlag of 60fps gaming anymore.. especially on consoles with all the additional artifcial motionblur on top of it, just to keep the performance up. Im getting motionsick, getting headaches, eyes hurt and it makes alot less fun when its visually just "dirty" well unless its a game where motionclarity and inputlag doesnt matter. (chess, RTS or something..)

 

i feel mostly fine with everything at around 100fps/hz. 

I think going for 120/144hz for consoles and maybe 240hz for really competitive shooters in the future is a step in the right direction,

beyond that point you'll always be in diminishing returns and for most people even in "overkill" territory.

 

For PC gaming on the other hand, i see no limits. When my PC is starting to be far apart from the best possible gaming performance, ill consider to upgrade reasonably. Its usually a 5year cycle for CPUs, despite my 2600k that lasted 7years and every 2nd gen GPU. F.e. Nividia 900series->2000series->4000series

 

Agree with you on 60fps - if I'm at a monitor then yeah 100fps is where I usually am able to play comfortably.

 

The good news about PCs is you can usually scale graphics down manually to help improve performance at the cost of fidelity.

 

At a distance though, 60fps is fine.

 

I'm going to probably skip 12th gen and wait for second generation DDR5 systems though, probably a safer bet on overall stability

Before you reply to my post, REFRESH. 99.99% chance I edited my post. 

 

My System: i7-13700KF // Corsair iCUE H150i Elite Capellix // MSI MPG Z690 Edge Wifi // 32GB DDR5 G. SKILL RIPJAWS S5 6000 CL32 // Nvidia RTX 4070 Super FE // Corsair 5000D Airflow // Corsair SP120 RGB Pro x7 // Seasonic Focus Plus Gold 850w //1TB ADATA XPG SX8200 Pro/1TB Teamgroup MP33/2TB Seagate 7200RPM Hard Drive // Displays: LG Ultragear 32GP83B x2 // Royal Kludge RK100 // Logitech G Pro X Superlight // Sennheiser DROP PC38x

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