Linus fearmongering again

[Agojama1]

 

Linus states that will TSMC price increase will drive GPU prices even higher, when in fact it will allow Nvidia and AMD to order more vafers and meet the demand for GPU with increased MSRP, but getting rid of shortage in the process.

Thanks for fearsome claims, bots are now buying everything possible and more people THAN EVER are monitoring GPU avaliablility.

[Middcore]

3 minutes ago, Agojama1 said:

Linus states that will TSMC price increase will drive GPU prices even higher, when in fact it will allow Nvidia and AMD to order more vafers 

 

[citation needed]

[da na]

The point of channels like LTT is to inform to help people. And what is your source for your counter-argument? 

[GDRRiley]

3 minutes ago, Agojama1 said:

Linus states that will TSMC price increase will drive GPU prices even higher, when in fact it will allow Nvidia and AMD to order more vafers and meet the demand for GPU with increased MSRP, but getting rid of shortage in the process.

Thanks for fearsome claims, bots are now buying everything possible and more people THAN EVER are monitoring GPU avaliablility.

it will increase it. you think the 5-20% raise (apple is rumored to have a sweetheart deal maybe AMD and Nvida did too) won't affect the end product cost? They all want their same cut so they'll increase pricing, will it go up 20% no, but 5% maybe

 

That means more fabs need to be open, increasing prices doesn't change how much you can make, and more fabs won't start for 2-3 more years

 

there is stock still if you know where to look

 

[Lurick]

11 minutes ago, Agojama1 said:

Linus states that will TSMC price increase will drive GPU prices even higher, when in fact it will allow Nvidia and AMD to order more vafers and meet the demand for GPU with increased MSRP, but getting rid of shortage in the process.

Thanks for fearsome claims, bots are now buying everything possible and more people THAN EVER are monitoring GPU avaliablility.

So what you're trying to say is:

Prices will go up for the raw material (wafers), they will then NOT pass the cost onto the consumers because they are good guys and it will allow them to order more wafers because somehow when the fabs are already at 100% capacity and nobody is going to give up precious fab space they are going to have more?

[IkeaGnome]

12 minutes ago, Agojama1 said:

when in fact it will allow Nvidia and AMD to order more vafers and meet the demand for GPU with increased MSRP

Raising the price a little bit won't stop multi billion dollar companies from buying wafers. It'll just raise the price more that we pay. If a company pays $20 for something today and sells it to us for $40. Then their supplier says "hey, we're raising prices" and now company pays $30. Do you honestly think we'll still only pay $40? They have their margin figured out. We'd be paying $60.

[Ashley MLP Fangirl]

8 minutes ago, GDRRiley said:

apple is rumored to have a sweetheart deal

I wouldn't doubt it, their prices haven't gone up at all iirc since the whole shortage thing... 

[GDRRiley]

Just now, Ashley MLP Fangirl said:

I wouldn't doubt it, their prices haven't gone up at all iirc since the whole shortage thing... 

apples got so much margin on everything a I wouldn't be surprised if they ate any minor cost increase this gen and then increased it on the next gen

 

[Agojama1]

3070 Ti was $599 MSRP and you would be lucky to find it for less than $1200 right now. Casual buying price is around $1500.

My idea is that instead of selling GPUs for "600" they will most likely sell those same cards for 900$ cutting the margin for scalpers and completing needed demand, because Nvidia profits most from every new GPU sold. 

Secondly, right now there is a competition between orders, so people have to spent extra time and effort to secure needed volume of vaifers and can never get enought. With price competition Nvidia can pump out as much videocards as needed when the demand is still high - it will only decrease after christmas.

[Middcore]

Just now, Agojama1 said:

Secondly, right now there is a competition between orders, so people have to spent extra time and effort to secure needed volume of vaifers and can never get enought. With price competition Nvidia can pump out as much videocards as needed when the demand is still high - it will only decrease after christmas.

 

What???

 

The supply of wafers remains the same because there's no new fab capacity, the fabs are raising their prices because the demand gives them all the power to do so, and somehow you think this is going to create "price competition" that will lead to more cards at lower prices?

[Agojama1]

1 minute ago, Middcore said:

 

What???

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-prices-set-to-rise-into-2022-as-TSMC-hikes-rates

Double-booking is the term

[Lurick]

2 minutes ago, Agojama1 said:

3070 Ti was $599 MSRP and you would be lucky to find it for less than $1200 right now. Casual buying price is around $1500.

My idea is that instead of selling GPUs for "600" they will most likely sell those same cards for 900$ cutting the margin for scalpers and completing needed demand, because Nvidia profits most from every new GPU sold. 

Secondly, right now there is a competition between orders, so people have to spent extra time and effort to secure needed volume of vaifers and can never get enought. With price competition Nvidia can pump out as much videocards as needed when the demand is still high - it will only decrease after christmas.

Ummm, no

There is ZERO extra capacity right now, they have to build more plants to produce more wafers. NOBODY is giving up their existing allocation and EVERYONE is fighting for more even though there is none to give.

[IkeaGnome]

4 minutes ago, Agojama1 said:

My idea is that instead of selling GPUs for "600" they will most likely sell those same cards for 900$ cutting the margin for scalpers and completing needed demand, because Nvidia profits most from every new GPU sold. 

So scalper prices go up. 

[Blademaster91]

11 minutes ago, Agojama1 said:

3070 Ti was $599 MSRP and you would be lucky to find it for less than $1200 right now. Casual buying price is around $1500.

My idea is that instead of selling GPUs for "600" they will most likely sell those same cards for 900$ cutting the margin for scalpers and completing needed demand, because Nvidia profits most from every new GPU sold. 

Secondly, right now there is a competition between orders, so people have to spent extra time and effort to secure needed volume of vaifers and can never get enought. With price competition Nvidia can pump out as much videocards as needed when the demand is still high - it will only decrease after christmas.

If MSRP went up even more, than scalpers would charge even more.

And there is no extra capacity, theres even rumors that GPU supply might go down. Fab capacity is at the limit, and car manufacturers have to shut down assembly plants because they can't finish vehicles without chips.

https://www.pcgamer.com/nvidia-gpu-supply-drop-rumour/

25 minutes ago, Mel0nMan said:

The point of channels like LTT is to inform to help people. And what is your source for your counter-argument? 

Unpopular opinion, but LTT is more of an entertainment channel nowadays, than an informative channel.

[Agojama1]

Just now, Blademaster91 said:

If MSRP went up even more, than scalpers would charge even more.

And there is no extra capacity, theres even rumors that GPU supply might go down. Fab capacity is at the limit for a lot of companies, including car manufacturers that have to shut down assembly plants because they can't finish vehicles without chips.

https://www.pcgamer.com/nvidia-gpu-supply-drop-rumour/

Unpopular opinion, but LTT is more of an entertainment channel nowadays, than an informative channel.

i still strongly disagree, on a fixed supply some will have to let go on inflated prices, you can't charge 300$ more for some type of products like videocards do. Imagine buying your kettle, or overpaying 100$ for "smart" kettle. 

Also Intel should enter the fight soon, so Nvidia better hurry print as much as they can.

[IkeaGnome]

4 minutes ago, Agojama1 said:

Also Intel should enter the fight soon, so Nvidia better hurry print as much as they can.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought XE was on TSMC 3nm.

[Middcore]

9 minutes ago, Agojama1 said:

i still strongly disagree, on a fixed supply some will have to let go on inflated prices

 

Why? You provide zero logical reason for this contention.

 

These are the conditions:

 

1. Cost of materials is going up.

2. Demand for materials is maxed out.

3. Demand for finished product is maxed out so every single card that gets made is sold, most well above MSRP.

 

Why would prices for cards go down without either reduces manufacturing cost or reduced consumer demand? With all of the ordinary market forces pushing prices higher, about the only other thing that could change pricing would government action in the form of a subsidy (although government subsidies actually tend to make things more expensive) or price control. 

[Agojama1]

6 minutes ago, Middcore said:

 

Why? You provide zero logical reason for this contention.

 

These are the conditions:

 

1. Cost of materials is going up.

2. Demand for materials is maxed out.

3. Demand for finished product is maxed out so every single card that gets made is sold, most well above MSRP.

 

Why would prices for cards go down without either reduces manufacturing cost or reduced consumer demand?

1. Increased supply 
- Smaller fab orders will be cancelled due to unaffordable prices
- More accurate volume prediction, better planning of sales.
2. Reduced demand
- If MSRP goes up, tighter margins for scalpers. Because people have limits on how much they can spend too.

Overall my point is that PC gaming will NOT become more affordable in the near future, it will continue to be overpriced. But at least you will be able to buy GPU at your local store.

[Lurick]

1 minute ago, Agojama1 said:

1. Increased supply 
- Smaller fab orders will be cancelled due to unaffordable prices
- More accurate volume prediction, better planning of sales.
2. Reduced demand
- If MSRP goes up, tighter margins for scalpers. Because people have limits on how much they can spend too.

Overall my point is not that PC gaming will become more affordable in the near future, it will continue to be overpriced. But at least you will be able to buy GPU at your local store first.

Smaller fab orders will be cancelled based on what logic? That companies would rather go out of business than pass costs onto customers?

[Curufinwe_wins]

This take of yours is hot garbage and only works IF prices are increasing regardless, which would be exactly Linus's point.

[Middcore]

Just now, Agojama1 said:

1. Increased supply 
- Smaller fab orders will be cancelled due to unaffordable prices

 

They won't be, though. The added cost will just be passed along to the consumer until the point (if one exists) where people stop buying. 

 

Quote

- More accurate volume prediction, better planning of sales.

 

I don't know what this is supposed to mean.

 

Just now, Agojama1 said:

2. Reduced demand
- If MSRP goes up,

 

Which it will. Maybe not the official "MSRP" which is nothing more than marketing in the end, but the sticker price at the retailer. 

 

Just now, Agojama1 said:

tighter margins for scalpers. Because people have limits on how much they can spend too.

 

The scalpers will just raise their prices. Yes, people have a limit on how much they can spend, but right now there are enough people whose limit is high enough that every GPU is getting sold, no matter how high the price, and we cannot predict where the tipping point is where that will no longer be the case.

 

Overall, nothing you have said refutes Linus's prediction prices will go up. 

 

[Kronoton]

2 hours ago, Agojama1 said:

Linus states that will TSMC price increase will drive GPU prices even higher, when in fact it will allow Nvidia and AMD to order more vafers

 

How would that work when all fabs are overbooked to the max? 

"Overbooked" as in the 1st tier costumers (Apple,AMD,NVidia etc) already take up so much supply that any small order will just be canceled/delayed with any unplanned downtime.

 

So no NVidia/AMD won't get anything more until supply goes up (which will take years) and with the high demand for their products they will have no issue passing on extra cost.

 

Prices will go back down when

-> supply increases (2023 or later)

-> crypto crashes reducing demand and flooding the market with used parts

-> global economic crisis that makes tech unaffordable for most even at unscalped prices

 

 

[Arika]

4 hours ago, Agojama1 said:

Thanks for fearsome claims, bots are now buying everything possible and more people THAN EVER are monitoring GPU avaliablility.

Yes, because people were waiting around specifically for Linus to have any input on this and only then spin up their bots because of what he said....

[LogicalDrm]

"fearmonger"? "again"? What was the last topic he voiced opinion only to cause baseless fear?

[Ashley MLP Fangirl]

20 hours ago, GDRRiley said:

apples got so much margin on everything a I wouldn't be surprised if they ate any minor cost increase this gen and then increased it on the next gen

 

ugh stupid argument, even ltt have proved that the "apple tax" is a myth