IBM says chip shortage could last two years

[Ar558a]

Summary

IBM President Jim Whitehurst has said the Chip shortage could last two more years. 

 

Quotes

Quote

"So frankly, we are looking at couple of years… before we get enough incremental capacity online to alleviate all aspects of the chip shortage." - IBM President Jim Whitehurst

 

My thoughts

 Everytime I hear another tech business leader talk the time frame gets longer. Three months, six months, a year and now two years. Whole product cycles will be unavailable to the majority of consumers and areas especially PC gaming as GPU's are by far the worst hit (I haven't seen a GPU above a 1030 available from a retailer since December in the UK) may begin to really suffer as gamers move to other products (Consoles if available) or just  give up gaming entirely. 

 

Sources

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57105368

[porina]

Shortages doesn't mean unavailable. Just that availability may not be general. Stock goes in, stock goes out. I manged to buy a 3070 from Scan earlier this year, and this week picked up a 3070 laptop. It does feel like allocation of gaming level GPUs may be going more towards pre-builts, so it isn't that gamers can't buy them, it's more limited to self builders and part upgraders.

[SupaKomputa]

As people staying indoors, they buy more electronics.

Datacenters ramping up their capacity to meet the demand.

We are a year in the pandemic, another year is not far off. 

Well that's the best case scenario, i predict the work from home culture will be continued post pandemic.

Plus the crypto mining is making it worse.

[gal-m]

Yeah I don't see thing getting any better by the end of this year (2021). If anything I've seen some stock come and go, but at the moment it seems like everything has been depleted..

 

What are your guys' predictions in reference to availability and pricing for the rest of the year and 2022?

[porina]

4 minutes ago, gal-m said:

What are your guys' predictions in reference to availability and pricing for the rest of the year and 2022?

Fab capacity isn't the sort of thing you can turn up quickly on demand. I think current gen launch pricing should be forgotten and elevated (but not scalper) pricing is the new normal for perhaps the rest of the year. Beyond that is anyone's guess.

 

The alternative question is, if we can't increase supply, will there be something to reduce demand? There is some cautious optimism that, at least in some countries where human malware control is progressing well, there is hope for a return to something like old normal. Will that reduce demand once again? Maybe the current crypto bubble will burst, leading to a possible double hit of lower demand and possible supply on the used market. Who knows.

[freeagent]

Honestly..?

 

Who cares?

 

I know people do, but this is just a hobby, not a way of life.. go outside.

[Ar558a]

4 minutes ago, freeagent said:

Honestly..?

 

Who cares?

 

I know people do, but this is just a hobby, not a way of life.. go outside.

I think you may have misjudged your audience.....

[jones177]

In 2018 ram prices were more than double to what they are now and the headlines read "no relief in site" but by 2019 prices had normalized. 

 

Prices did not go down until government got involved.

 

2018  G.SKILL Ripjaws V Series 16GB (2 x 8GB) 288-Pin DDR4 SDRAM DDR4 3200  $202.00

2021 G.SKILL Ripjaws V Series 16GB (2 x 8GB) 288-Pin DDR4 SDRAM DDR4 3200    $89.00

 

3 minutes ago, freeagent said:

Honestly..?

 

Who cares?

 

I know people do, but this is just a hobby, not a way of life.. go outside.

In 2018 I was in business(freelance 3D artist) so I had to pay and if I had not retired I would have to pay now. 

 

[gal-m]

15 minutes ago, freeagent said:

Honestly..?

 

Who cares?

 

I know people do, but this is just a hobby, not a way of life.. go outside.

On the one hand I get what you're trying to say and agree with not stressing too much about things that are relatively unimportant.

However, every one of us has a certain hobby or passion. Some people like to paint, modify cars, go hiking, etc. and other people like all things tech, which is what I believe this forum is about. So I fully understand peoples frustration regarding this shortage @freeagent.

[Moonzy]

well, retailers at my country are still selling GPUs

$2700 for a 3080 at the moment

 

i guess the only shortage is money

[gal-m]

6 minutes ago, Moonzy said:

well, retailers at my country are still selling GPUs

$2700 for a 3080 at the moment

 

i guess the only shortage is money

Hahhaah, yeah there are some 3080's and 3090's in stock here in Slovenia too.

RTX 3080's are going for around $2800 and 3090's for anywhere from $3500-$5000 and beyond.

[Dedayog]

14 minutes ago, freeagent said:

Honestly..?

 

Who cares?

 

I know people do, but this is just a hobby, not a way of life.. go outside.

Also understand that it's not just GPU's being affected.  Ford has thousands of F-150's needing chips, for example. Basically anything we use these days needs some sort of processing unit, which is impacted.

 

Except that ball and glove for playing catch.. outside

 

 

[Lurick]

29 minutes ago, freeagent said:

Honestly..?

 

Who cares?

 

I know people do, but this is just a hobby, not a way of life.. go outside.

Yah, I mean it's not like billion dollar businesses need chips for anything right?

Servers, networking equipment, etc. that just runs on magic!

[freeagent]

I knew I would get that kind of response lol. Ford is gonna need more than a few chips to make good trucks lol..

 

Anyways.. I was just playing around. Relax..

[freeagent]

50 minutes ago, gal-m said:

On the one hand I get what you're trying to say and agree with not stressing too much about things that are relatively unimportant.

However, every one of us has a certain hobby or passion. Some people like to paint, modify cars, go hiking, etc. and other people like all things tech, which is what I believe this forum is about. So I fully understand peoples frustration regarding this shortage @freeagent.

All good man! I built my PC in November,  still waiting on a GPU!

[Kisai]

2 hours ago, Ar558a said:

Summary

IBM President Jim Whitehurst has said the Chip shortage could last two more years. 

 

Quotes

 

My thoughts

 Everytime I hear another tech business leader talk the time frame gets longer. Three months, six months, a year and now two years. Whole product cycles will be unavailable to the majority of consumers and areas especially PC gaming as GPU's are by far the worst hit (I haven't seen a GPU above a 1030 available from a retailer since December in the UK) may begin to really suffer as gamers move to other products (Consoles if available) or just  give up gaming entirely. 

 

Sources

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57105368

2 years is long enough lead time to build the next node sizes, or expand capacity of an existing one. 

 

Considering Taiwan had a massive power outage yesterday, I think it's about time TSMC just partners with Intel to build a few fabs in the US or Canada in places with stable power and water resources.

 

And no, Arizona doesn't have stable water, but it's probably more stable than Taiwan.

 

[thechinchinsong]

Elon is playing the long haul and purposefully pumping and dumping crypto so that he can get Tesla electronics for cheap. Truly a mastermind. You can't convince me otherwise.

[Moonzy]

14 minutes ago, thechinchinsong said:

Elon is playing the long haul and purposefully pumping and dumping crypto so that he can get Tesla electronics for cheap. Truly a mastermind. You can't convince me otherwise.

Wrong thread?

[CTR640]

2 hours ago, Moonzy said:

well, retailers at my country are still selling GPUs

$2700 for a 3080 at the moment

 

i guess the only shortage is money

Some webstores here in the Netherlands ironically sells the RTX3090 for.....€3090

[Moonzy]

1 minute ago, CTR640 said:

Some webstores here in the Netherlands ironically sells the RTX3090 for.....€3090

3090 are $3700

Strix is $4000+, I was quoted $5000 by a retailer when I asked

 

Somehow, glad I got mine at $2000-2500 '-'

[CTR640]

Just now, Moonzy said:

3090 are $3700

Strix is $4000+, I was quoted $5000 by a retailer when I asked

 

Somehow, glad I got mine at $2000-2500 '-'

Lol, those prices are truely shameless and rude on a whole new level.

[Moonzy]

3 minutes ago, CTR640 said:

Lol, those prices are truely shameless and rude on a whole new level.

I agree to some extent.

But in the end, they're that price for a reason

Shop exists to sell stuffs, not to put up items that no one buys

 

I just don't buy a GPU if I think it's not worth it

[CTR640]

1 minute ago, Moonzy said:

I agree to send extent.

But in the end, they're that price for a reason

Shop exists to sell stuffs, not to put up items that no one buys

 

I just not buy a GPU if I think it's not worth it

I know but those absurd prices is pretty much a killer for every sane person. Buying a GPU at those prices just for gaming is totally not worth it and I doubt there many gamers paying those prices. This one webstore for now has the 3080's and 3090's and have been all in stock for weeks and no one buys them.

 

At those prices nothing is worth for:

gaming

mining

CAD

and more GPU required stuff

 

I still have the 1080Ti and if it happens it will break some day, I have stored my spare GPU which is the GTX780. So glad I didn't sell the 780 when I made the upgrade.

[thechinchinsong]

1 hour ago, Moonzy said:

Wrong thread?

Sorry, not enough context. My thought process was:

 

cryptocurrency mining -> chip shortages -> Elon Musk pumping/dumping crypto -> crypto crash -> no more chip shortages -> auto electronics no longer affected

 

Now that I look back it looks super out of place. Most of those steps aren't even remotely connected let alone make sense chronologically lmao

[soldier_ph]

IMO this whole Clusterf#ck of Shortages will be over as soon as the Pandemic is mostly over and the majority of the world population is vaccinated. So this crisis truly is dependent on every individual whether it'll be over soon or not.