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IBM says chip shortage could last two years

Summary

IBM President Jim Whitehurst has said the Chip shortage could last two more years. 

 

Quotes

Quote

"So frankly, we are looking at couple of years… before we get enough incremental capacity online to alleviate all aspects of the chip shortage." - IBM President Jim Whitehurst

 

My thoughts

 Everytime I hear another tech business leader talk the time frame gets longer. Three months, six months, a year and now two years. Whole product cycles will be unavailable to the majority of consumers and areas especially PC gaming as GPU's are by far the worst hit (I haven't seen a GPU above a 1030 available from a retailer since December in the UK) may begin to really suffer as gamers move to other products (Consoles if available) or just  give up gaming entirely. 

 

Sources

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57105368

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Shortages doesn't mean unavailable. Just that availability may not be general. Stock goes in, stock goes out. I manged to buy a 3070 from Scan earlier this year, and this week picked up a 3070 laptop. It does feel like allocation of gaming level GPUs may be going more towards pre-builts, so it isn't that gamers can't buy them, it's more limited to self builders and part upgraders.

Desktop Gaming system: Asrock Z370 Pro4, i7-8086k, Noctua D15, Corsair Vengeance Pro RGB 3200 2x16GB, EVGA 2080Ti, NZXT E850 PSU, Cooler Master MasterBox 5, Optane 900p 280GB, Crucial MX200 1TB, Sandisk 960GB, Acer Predator XB241YU 1440p144 G-sync
TV Gaming system: Asus B560M-A, i7-11700k, Arctic eSports 34 duo, Corsair Vengeance Pro RGB 3200 2x16GB, MSI 3070 Gaming Trio X, EVGA Supernova G2L 850W, Anidees Ai Crystal, Samsung 980 Pro 2TB, LG OLED55B9PLA 4k120 G-Sync Compatible
Streaming system: Asus X299 TUF mark 2, i9-7920X, Noctua D15, Corsair Vengeance LPX RGB 3000 8x8GB, Asus Strix 1080Ti, Corsair HX1000i, GameMax Abyss, Samsung 970 Evo 500GB, Crucial BX500 1TB, BenQ XL2411 1080p144 + HP LP2475w 1200p60
Former Main system: Asus Maximus VIII Hero, i7-6700k, Noctua D14, G.Skill Ripjaws V 3200 2x8GB, GTX 980Ti FE, Corsair HX750i, In Win 303 NVIDIA, Samsung SM951 512GB, WD Blue 1TB, Acer RT280k 4k60 FreeSync [link]
Gaming laptop: Lenovo Legion, 5800H, DDR4 3200C22 2x8GB, RTX 3070, 512 GB SSD, 165 Hz IPS panel


 

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As people staying indoors, they buy more electronics.

Datacenters ramping up their capacity to meet the demand.

We are a year in the pandemic, another year is not far off. 

Well that's the best case scenario, i predict the work from home culture will be continued post pandemic.

Plus the crypto mining is making it worse.

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Yeah I don't see thing getting any better by the end of this year (2021). If anything I've seen some stock come and go, but at the moment it seems like everything has been depleted..

 

What are your guys' predictions in reference to availability and pricing for the rest of the year and 2022?

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4 minutes ago, gal-m said:

What are your guys' predictions in reference to availability and pricing for the rest of the year and 2022?

Fab capacity isn't the sort of thing you can turn up quickly on demand. I think current gen launch pricing should be forgotten and elevated (but not scalper) pricing is the new normal for perhaps the rest of the year. Beyond that is anyone's guess.

 

The alternative question is, if we can't increase supply, will there be something to reduce demand? There is some cautious optimism that, at least in some countries where human malware control is progressing well, there is hope for a return to something like old normal. Will that reduce demand once again? Maybe the current crypto bubble will burst, leading to a possible double hit of lower demand and possible supply on the used market. Who knows.

Desktop Gaming system: Asrock Z370 Pro4, i7-8086k, Noctua D15, Corsair Vengeance Pro RGB 3200 2x16GB, EVGA 2080Ti, NZXT E850 PSU, Cooler Master MasterBox 5, Optane 900p 280GB, Crucial MX200 1TB, Sandisk 960GB, Acer Predator XB241YU 1440p144 G-sync
TV Gaming system: Asus B560M-A, i7-11700k, Arctic eSports 34 duo, Corsair Vengeance Pro RGB 3200 2x16GB, MSI 3070 Gaming Trio X, EVGA Supernova G2L 850W, Anidees Ai Crystal, Samsung 980 Pro 2TB, LG OLED55B9PLA 4k120 G-Sync Compatible
Streaming system: Asus X299 TUF mark 2, i9-7920X, Noctua D15, Corsair Vengeance LPX RGB 3000 8x8GB, Asus Strix 1080Ti, Corsair HX1000i, GameMax Abyss, Samsung 970 Evo 500GB, Crucial BX500 1TB, BenQ XL2411 1080p144 + HP LP2475w 1200p60
Former Main system: Asus Maximus VIII Hero, i7-6700k, Noctua D14, G.Skill Ripjaws V 3200 2x8GB, GTX 980Ti FE, Corsair HX750i, In Win 303 NVIDIA, Samsung SM951 512GB, WD Blue 1TB, Acer RT280k 4k60 FreeSync [link]
Gaming laptop: Lenovo Legion, 5800H, DDR4 3200C22 2x8GB, RTX 3070, 512 GB SSD, 165 Hz IPS panel


 

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Honestly..?

 

Who cares?

 

I know people do, but this is just a hobby, not a way of life.. go outside.

AMD R9 5900X @ +150MHz -30 CO | Thermalright Frost Commander 140

Asus Strix B550-F | 4x8GB G.Skill Trident Z @ 1833 14-14-14-34 1T 1.47v

EVGA 980 Classified  @ 1490/1953 | WD SN750 500GB+1TB

Seasonic Prime GX-750 |Fractal Design Meshify C TG | 5x 120x38

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4 minutes ago, freeagent said:

Honestly..?

 

Who cares?

 

I know people do, but this is just a hobby, not a way of life.. go outside.

I think you may have misjudged your audience.....

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In 2018 ram prices were more than double to what they are now and the headlines read "no relief in site" but by 2019 prices had normalized. 

 

Prices did not go down until government got involved.

 

2018  G.SKILL Ripjaws V Series 16GB (2 x 8GB) 288-Pin DDR4 SDRAM DDR4 3200  $202.00

2021 G.SKILL Ripjaws V Series 16GB (2 x 8GB) 288-Pin DDR4 SDRAM DDR4 3200    $89.00

 

3 minutes ago, freeagent said:

Honestly..?

 

Who cares?

 

I know people do, but this is just a hobby, not a way of life.. go outside.

In 2018 I was in business(freelance 3D artist) so I had to pay and if I had not retired I would have to pay now. 

 

RIG#1 CPU: Intel i9 10900k | Motherboard: ASUS ROG Maximus XII Hero | RAM: Corsair Vengeance RGB Pro 32GB DDR4 4000 | GPU: EVGA  RTX 2080 ti FTW3 ULTRA | PSU: EVGA 1300 G2 | Case: Cooler Master H500M | Cooler: SilverStone PF360 | SSD#1: Crucial P1 1TB | SSD#2: Crucial MX500 2.5" 2TB | Monitor: LG 55" 4k B9 OLED TV


RIG#2 CPU: AMD, R 7 5800X| Motherboard: X570 AORUS Master  | RAM: Corsair Vengeance RGB Pro 32GB DDR4 3200 | GPU: EVGA RTX 3080 ti XC3 ULTRA | PSU: EVGA 1000 GQ | Case: Cooler Master H500P Mesh White | Cooler: EK 360mm AIO | SSD#1: Corsair MP600 1TB | SSD#2: Crucial MX500 2.5" 2TB | Monitor: LG 55" 4k B9 OLED TV

 

RIG#3 CPU: Intel i9 9900k | Motherboard: AORUS Z390 Ultra | RAM: Ripjaws V Series 32GB DDR4 3200 | GPU: EVGA  RTX 2080 ti FTW3 ULTRA  | PSU: EVGA 1000 GQ | Case: Cooler Master H500 | Cooler: Noctua NH-D15 | SSD: Crucial P2 1TB | Monitor: LG 49" NanoCell 85

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15 minutes ago, freeagent said:

Honestly..?

 

Who cares?

 

I know people do, but this is just a hobby, not a way of life.. go outside.

On the one hand I get what you're trying to say and agree with not stressing too much about things that are relatively unimportant.

However, every one of us has a certain hobby or passion. Some people like to paint, modify cars, go hiking, etc. and other people like all things tech, which is what I believe this forum is about. So I fully understand peoples frustration regarding this shortage @freeagent.

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well, retailers at my country are still selling GPUs

$2700 for a 3080 at the moment

 

i guess the only shortage is money

My PCs: Desky | Beddie | Miney | Benchie

Things I need help with: (nothing at the moment)

Spoiler

none atm

I hate Intel's pricing, Ryzen's weird quirks, Nvidia's pricing, and Radeon GPUs in general

Spoiler

Products I like:

Spoiler

Sony Xperia Z1 / Z2 / 10 ii, Asus Strix 970 / 1070, Samsung SSD, WD HDD, Corsair PSUs (AX, RM, CX(grey)), GeForce GPU, NZXT N450/S340, be quiet! Coolers, G.Skill Trident RAM, Logitech M525, Logitech G440, Razer Deathadder Elite

Products I hate:

Spoiler

Xperia Z3, XiaoMi 5c, Radeon GPUs, Razer Audio Products, any bloatwares

Companies I absolutely adore: (and hope it stays that way)

Spoiler

be quiet! - sent me AM4 mounting for my DRP3 even though it's way past the timeframe stated, no questions asked

Corsair - very good RMA experience, absolutely recommend

Companies I hate:

Spoiler

Nvidia, Intel, Apple, TMT (Thundermatch, a retailer)

Personal Blacklisted Companies:

Spoiler

Acer: shit tier quality products, shit tier customer service thus far, they "tried" to solve my issue but they arent really doing anything but delaying and delaying. (on-going case since July)

Gigabyte: horrible customer service (gigabyte had literally 0 customer service, asked me to go to retailer with NO WAY to email them about a question) but at least they fixed my shit in ONE MONTH (would probably take me 1 hour to fix if they let me email them)

XiaoMi Phones: built like a tank but the software is buggy as all hell

Seagate HDD: had too many dead seagate drives

Kingston SSD: 300V controller swap thingy

Razer (except their mouse)

Remember, just because I had good/bad experiences with these companies/product, doesn't mean you will have similar experiences too. I would still recommend these products if they made sense for your needs, but I'll add a disclaimer of my experience if it's relevant. Feel free to DM me asking why they are where they are.

 

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6 minutes ago, Moonzy said:

well, retailers at my country are still selling GPUs

$2700 for a 3080 at the moment

 

i guess the only shortage is money

Hahhaah, yeah there are some 3080's and 3090's in stock here in Slovenia too.

RTX 3080's are going for around $2800 and 3090's for anywhere from $3500-$5000 and beyond.

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14 minutes ago, freeagent said:

Honestly..?

 

Who cares?

 

I know people do, but this is just a hobby, not a way of life.. go outside.

Also understand that it's not just GPU's being affected.  Ford has thousands of F-150's needing chips, for example. Basically anything we use these days needs some sort of processing unit, which is impacted.

 

Except that ball and glove for playing catch.. outside 😉

 

 

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29 minutes ago, freeagent said:

Honestly..?

 

Who cares?

 

I know people do, but this is just a hobby, not a way of life.. go outside.

Yah, I mean it's not like billion dollar businesses need chips for anything right?

Servers, networking equipment, etc. that just runs on magic!

Current Network Layout:

Current Build Log/PC:

Prior Build Log/PC:

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I knew I would get that kind of response lol. Ford is gonna need more than a few chips to make good trucks lol..

 

Anyways.. I was just playing around. Relax..

AMD R9 5900X @ +150MHz -30 CO | Thermalright Frost Commander 140

Asus Strix B550-F | 4x8GB G.Skill Trident Z @ 1833 14-14-14-34 1T 1.47v

EVGA 980 Classified  @ 1490/1953 | WD SN750 500GB+1TB

Seasonic Prime GX-750 |Fractal Design Meshify C TG | 5x 120x38

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50 minutes ago, gal-m said:

On the one hand I get what you're trying to say and agree with not stressing too much about things that are relatively unimportant.

However, every one of us has a certain hobby or passion. Some people like to paint, modify cars, go hiking, etc. and other people like all things tech, which is what I believe this forum is about. So I fully understand peoples frustration regarding this shortage @freeagent.

All good man! I built my PC in November,  still waiting on a GPU! 😄

AMD R9 5900X @ +150MHz -30 CO | Thermalright Frost Commander 140

Asus Strix B550-F | 4x8GB G.Skill Trident Z @ 1833 14-14-14-34 1T 1.47v

EVGA 980 Classified  @ 1490/1953 | WD SN750 500GB+1TB

Seasonic Prime GX-750 |Fractal Design Meshify C TG | 5x 120x38

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2 hours ago, Ar558a said:

Summary

IBM President Jim Whitehurst has said the Chip shortage could last two more years. 

 

Quotes

 

My thoughts

 Everytime I hear another tech business leader talk the time frame gets longer. Three months, six months, a year and now two years. Whole product cycles will be unavailable to the majority of consumers and areas especially PC gaming as GPU's are by far the worst hit (I haven't seen a GPU above a 1030 available from a retailer since December in the UK) may begin to really suffer as gamers move to other products (Consoles if available) or just  give up gaming entirely. 

 

Sources

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57105368

2 years is long enough lead time to build the next node sizes, or expand capacity of an existing one. 

 

Considering Taiwan had a massive power outage yesterday, I think it's about time TSMC just partners with Intel to build a few fabs in the US or Canada in places with stable power and water resources.

 

And no, Arizona doesn't have stable water, but it's probably more stable than Taiwan.

 

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Elon is playing the long haul and purposefully pumping and dumping crypto so that he can get Tesla electronics for cheap. Truly a mastermind. You can't convince me otherwise.

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14 minutes ago, thechinchinsong said:

Elon is playing the long haul and purposefully pumping and dumping crypto so that he can get Tesla electronics for cheap. Truly a mastermind. You can't convince me otherwise.

🤔

Wrong thread?

My PCs: Desky | Beddie | Miney | Benchie

Things I need help with: (nothing at the moment)

Spoiler

none atm

I hate Intel's pricing, Ryzen's weird quirks, Nvidia's pricing, and Radeon GPUs in general

Spoiler

Products I like:

Spoiler

Sony Xperia Z1 / Z2 / 10 ii, Asus Strix 970 / 1070, Samsung SSD, WD HDD, Corsair PSUs (AX, RM, CX(grey)), GeForce GPU, NZXT N450/S340, be quiet! Coolers, G.Skill Trident RAM, Logitech M525, Logitech G440, Razer Deathadder Elite

Products I hate:

Spoiler

Xperia Z3, XiaoMi 5c, Radeon GPUs, Razer Audio Products, any bloatwares

Companies I absolutely adore: (and hope it stays that way)

Spoiler

be quiet! - sent me AM4 mounting for my DRP3 even though it's way past the timeframe stated, no questions asked

Corsair - very good RMA experience, absolutely recommend

Companies I hate:

Spoiler

Nvidia, Intel, Apple, TMT (Thundermatch, a retailer)

Personal Blacklisted Companies:

Spoiler

Acer: shit tier quality products, shit tier customer service thus far, they "tried" to solve my issue but they arent really doing anything but delaying and delaying. (on-going case since July)

Gigabyte: horrible customer service (gigabyte had literally 0 customer service, asked me to go to retailer with NO WAY to email them about a question) but at least they fixed my shit in ONE MONTH (would probably take me 1 hour to fix if they let me email them)

XiaoMi Phones: built like a tank but the software is buggy as all hell

Seagate HDD: had too many dead seagate drives

Kingston SSD: 300V controller swap thingy

Razer (except their mouse)

Remember, just because I had good/bad experiences with these companies/product, doesn't mean you will have similar experiences too. I would still recommend these products if they made sense for your needs, but I'll add a disclaimer of my experience if it's relevant. Feel free to DM me asking why they are where they are.

 

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2 hours ago, Moonzy said:

well, retailers at my country are still selling GPUs

$2700 for a 3080 at the moment

 

i guess the only shortage is money

Some webstores here in the Netherlands ironically sells the RTX3090 for.....€3090

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1 minute ago, CTR640 said:

Some webstores here in the Netherlands ironically sells the RTX3090 for.....€3090

3090 are $3700

Strix is $4000+, I was quoted $5000 by a retailer when I asked

 

Somehow, glad I got mine at $2000-2500 '-'

My PCs: Desky | Beddie | Miney | Benchie

Things I need help with: (nothing at the moment)

Spoiler

none atm

I hate Intel's pricing, Ryzen's weird quirks, Nvidia's pricing, and Radeon GPUs in general

Spoiler

Products I like:

Spoiler

Sony Xperia Z1 / Z2 / 10 ii, Asus Strix 970 / 1070, Samsung SSD, WD HDD, Corsair PSUs (AX, RM, CX(grey)), GeForce GPU, NZXT N450/S340, be quiet! Coolers, G.Skill Trident RAM, Logitech M525, Logitech G440, Razer Deathadder Elite

Products I hate:

Spoiler

Xperia Z3, XiaoMi 5c, Radeon GPUs, Razer Audio Products, any bloatwares

Companies I absolutely adore: (and hope it stays that way)

Spoiler

be quiet! - sent me AM4 mounting for my DRP3 even though it's way past the timeframe stated, no questions asked

Corsair - very good RMA experience, absolutely recommend

Companies I hate:

Spoiler

Nvidia, Intel, Apple, TMT (Thundermatch, a retailer)

Personal Blacklisted Companies:

Spoiler

Acer: shit tier quality products, shit tier customer service thus far, they "tried" to solve my issue but they arent really doing anything but delaying and delaying. (on-going case since July)

Gigabyte: horrible customer service (gigabyte had literally 0 customer service, asked me to go to retailer with NO WAY to email them about a question) but at least they fixed my shit in ONE MONTH (would probably take me 1 hour to fix if they let me email them)

XiaoMi Phones: built like a tank but the software is buggy as all hell

Seagate HDD: had too many dead seagate drives

Kingston SSD: 300V controller swap thingy

Razer (except their mouse)

Remember, just because I had good/bad experiences with these companies/product, doesn't mean you will have similar experiences too. I would still recommend these products if they made sense for your needs, but I'll add a disclaimer of my experience if it's relevant. Feel free to DM me asking why they are where they are.

 

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Just now, Moonzy said:

3090 are $3700

Strix is $4000+, I was quoted $5000 by a retailer when I asked

 

Somehow, glad I got mine at $2000-2500 '-'

Lol, those prices are truely shameless and rude on a whole new level.

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3 minutes ago, CTR640 said:

Lol, those prices are truely shameless and rude on a whole new level.

I agree to some extent.

But in the end, they're that price for a reason

Shop exists to sell stuffs, not to put up items that no one buys

 

I just don't buy a GPU if I think it's not worth it

My PCs: Desky | Beddie | Miney | Benchie

Things I need help with: (nothing at the moment)

Spoiler

none atm

I hate Intel's pricing, Ryzen's weird quirks, Nvidia's pricing, and Radeon GPUs in general

Spoiler

Products I like:

Spoiler

Sony Xperia Z1 / Z2 / 10 ii, Asus Strix 970 / 1070, Samsung SSD, WD HDD, Corsair PSUs (AX, RM, CX(grey)), GeForce GPU, NZXT N450/S340, be quiet! Coolers, G.Skill Trident RAM, Logitech M525, Logitech G440, Razer Deathadder Elite

Products I hate:

Spoiler

Xperia Z3, XiaoMi 5c, Radeon GPUs, Razer Audio Products, any bloatwares

Companies I absolutely adore: (and hope it stays that way)

Spoiler

be quiet! - sent me AM4 mounting for my DRP3 even though it's way past the timeframe stated, no questions asked

Corsair - very good RMA experience, absolutely recommend

Companies I hate:

Spoiler

Nvidia, Intel, Apple, TMT (Thundermatch, a retailer)

Personal Blacklisted Companies:

Spoiler

Acer: shit tier quality products, shit tier customer service thus far, they "tried" to solve my issue but they arent really doing anything but delaying and delaying. (on-going case since July)

Gigabyte: horrible customer service (gigabyte had literally 0 customer service, asked me to go to retailer with NO WAY to email them about a question) but at least they fixed my shit in ONE MONTH (would probably take me 1 hour to fix if they let me email them)

XiaoMi Phones: built like a tank but the software is buggy as all hell

Seagate HDD: had too many dead seagate drives

Kingston SSD: 300V controller swap thingy

Razer (except their mouse)

Remember, just because I had good/bad experiences with these companies/product, doesn't mean you will have similar experiences too. I would still recommend these products if they made sense for your needs, but I'll add a disclaimer of my experience if it's relevant. Feel free to DM me asking why they are where they are.

 

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1 minute ago, Moonzy said:

I agree to send extent.

But in the end, they're that price for a reason

Shop exists to sell stuffs, not to put up items that no one buys

 

I just not buy a GPU if I think it's not worth it

I know but those absurd prices is pretty much a killer for every sane person. Buying a GPU at those prices just for gaming is totally not worth it and I doubt there many gamers paying those prices. This one webstore for now has the 3080's and 3090's and have been all in stock for weeks and no one buys them.

 

At those prices nothing is worth for:

gaming

mining

CAD

and more GPU required stuff

 

I still have the 1080Ti and if it happens it will break some day, I have stored my spare GPU which is the GTX780. So glad I didn't sell the 780 when I made the upgrade.

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1 hour ago, Moonzy said:

🤔

Wrong thread?

Sorry, not enough context. My thought process was:

 

cryptocurrency mining -> chip shortages -> Elon Musk pumping/dumping crypto -> crypto crash -> no more chip shortages -> auto electronics no longer affected

 

Now that I look back it looks super out of place. Most of those steps aren't even remotely connected let alone make sense chronologically lmao 🙂

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