Rumour: AMD no longer launching Zen 3+ or any refreshed Ryzen CPUs in 2021

[Delicieuxz]

 

 

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The reason Warhol is said to be cancelled by my source was said to be pressure from shortages, and potenttial issues such as AMD might believe that Ryzen 5000 will have reached enough people to not frustrated people by essentially launching a new AM4 product when some people might have only just received their chips.

 

It is worth noting though - that while one source has told me he believes it might be cancelled, this would be a VERY recent decision because my other information (covered in this video) was from recent performance projections from AMD, and Warhol was indeed still on internal roadmaps up until recently.

 

Rumor: AMD no longer launching Zen 3+ or any refreshed Ryzen CPUs in 2021

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According to recent rumors, AMD may have canceled its Ryzen Zen 3+ lineup (codenamed Warhol) which was expected to release in Q4 2021. The Warhol lineup of CPUs (Ryzen 6000 Series) was planned to be a refresh of Zen 3, however, there may have been a sudden change of plans. This news comes from PC hardware-focused YouTuber RedGamingTech, who claims that several internal sources have provided him with this information.

...
One possible reason for AMD’s alleged canceled lineup could be due to the minimal performance increase when upgrading from Zen 3 to Zen 3+. The increased instructions per clock (IPC) was reported to be anywhere from 3% to 10% on average depending on the applications. Unless AMD were to combine that small boost with something more significant like a shift to a 6nm node, it would make more sense for AMD to skip the refresh and jump directly to Zen 4. This strategy would offer a larger bump in performance with a new architecture that also supports DDR5 memory. Another major contributing factor could be the current silicon chip shortage which is causing AMD to struggle with restocking its existing Ryzen 5000 Series lineup.

 

I think that if AMD has cancelled Zen 3+, it'll also be because Zen 4 is close enough to being released that it isn't very practical to release Zen 3+ for a brief period of time, and that a tiny sales window for Zen 3+ could cause confusion among buyers and potentially anger (buyer's remorse) coming back at AMD.

 

According to Paul at RedGamingTech, the performance increase from the planned Zen 3+ is estimated to be pretty modest (3 - 10% - admittedly, not worse than the typical Intel refresh), which could also make a Zen 3+ release not very practical right before a major performance upgrade launch.

 

If Zen 3+ has been cancelled, then hopefully it means we'll be able to build Zen 4 systems sooner rather than later.

 

 

 

Moore's Law Is Dead has also made a video saying he doesn't think Zen 3+ is a real thing for desktop. He says none of his best sources have heard of a project called Zen 3+:

 

 

[Wingfan]

not surpised at all honestly

[Quackers101]

I guess, the 5000 is the end, and newer ones would be different again?

From DDR5 and all kinds of stuff.

[Ravendarat]

If this is true I think its a good move from a PR standpoint, when people are STILL trying to chase down 5900 and 5950 and cant get them, to then launch a refresh of those chips that they also wouldnt be able to acquire easily would be a slap in the face to customers (looking at you Nvidea with your ridiculous 3080ti bullshit). As long as they dont have a TON of money tied up in R&D for those refreshes then just let them pass and move on to ZEN 4

[Moonzy]

22 minutes ago, Ravendarat said:

to then launch a refresh of those chips that they also wouldnt be able to acquire easily would be a slap in the face to customers (looking at you Nvidea with your ridiculous 3080ti bullshit)

the 3080ti would've been a 3090, but they're saving up 12GB of VRAM, which may help with the shortage

 

i dont get why you are mad at this?

[Blademaster91]

19 minutes ago, Moonzy said:

the 3080ti would've been a 3090, but they're saving up 12GB of VRAM, which may help with the shortage

 

i dont get why you are mad at this?

Its worse though, some newer 3090's were supposed to be 3080Ti's, with the GA-102-250 sku crossed out.

And IMO the 3080 should have had 12GB of vram, putting 12GB on the Ti version is a slap in the face to anyone that bought a 3080, its like that "super" card crap Nvidia did with the RTX 20 series.

[Ravendarat]

30 minutes ago, Moonzy said:

the 3080ti would've been a 3090, but they're saving up 12GB of VRAM, which may help with the shortage

 

i dont get why you are mad at this?

I wouldnt say Im "mad", that would imply I really care, but calling a spade a spade here, they cant fulfill the current orders people have out there for cards, and instead of focusing on delivering the products they have already launched they are instead releasing even more models that they wont be able to deliver with any regularity. 

[Blademaster91]

I didn't know there was even a rumor of a Zen3+, not surprising if AMD isn't going to make it as the 5800X, 5900X, and 5950X are really difficult to find and it doesn't make any sense for there to be a refresh unless they put an iGPU into the Zen3+ cpu's.

[vsteel]

It doesn't surprise me.  The refresh will mandate a process change and that will hurt yield and slow the production of existing chips down while they make the transition.   I am sure they looked at the sales and said let it ride because by now the process is mostly mature and they are cranking those wafers through as fast as they can.

 

[leadeater]

All this also assuming Zen3+ really was planned and actually was intended to be a product cycle. Nothing quite like rumors saying Zen3+ is going to be a thing, which is of course a rumor, then another rumor saying previous rumor might be cancelled implying that it was actually confirmed to be a thing in the first place 

 

Remember Zen3+ has never been on any product roadmaps, Zen4 has.

[StDragon]

56 minutes ago, leadeater said:

Remember Zen3+ has never been on any product roadmaps, Zen4 has.

Warhol has been talked about for sometime though. It was supposed to be the last AM4 chip to support DDR4 with along with a newer X570s (chipset without active cooling).

 

Due to fabrication shortages, it does make sense to leap to AM5 with DDR5. Too many unknowns with logistics to try and shoehorn in another refresh so late in the cycle. 

[leadeater]

13 minutes ago, StDragon said:

Warhol has been talked about for sometime though. It was supposed to be the last AM4 chip to support DDR4 with along with a newer X570s (chipset without active cooling).

 

Due to fabrication shortages, it does make sense to leap to AM5 with DDR5. Too many unknowns with logistics to try and shoehorn in another refresh so late in the cycle. 

Talked about and rumor is literally the same thing. Since AMD never confirmed it or place it on any roadmaps I wouldn't assume it was going to be a thing if supply problems didn't exist.

 

Zen to Zen+ was basically spot on a full year between, Zen3+ in Q4 would fit in with that if released near the end of it. Doesn't seem logical from a product cycle investment point of view to refresh/revise so soon without a good reason to, it's not like Zen to Zen+ where the former it a brand new architecture from the ground up with many areas to improve on or errata to fix. I can't think of one being how many architectures have been on TSMC 7nm now, what could they realistically improve that is worth it for the investment cost. Not being able not access 5nm any time soon is about the only thing that would drive a need to do a Zen3+ refresh and even then in less than 12 months doesn't make sense.

[Bombastinator]

Makes a certain amount of sense.  Why should they?  Intel can’t get to their level until it launches its next chip, which is supposed to be quite good, so they’re going to need am5 to compete.  No reason to do any more am4.  They’re already on top. Even if it actually did exist there’s no reason accrue expense to release it.  Just keep churning out chips that sell like hotcakes.  Mo’ money mo’ money.

Edited May 1, 2021 by Bombastinator

[TheReal1980]

I am guessing this will be a great year for Apple...

[Arika]

3 hours ago, Bombastinator said:

Makes a certain amount of sense.  Why should they?  Intel can’t get to their level until it launches its next chip, which is supposed to be quite good, so they’re going to need am5 to compete.  No reason to do any more am4.  They’re already on top. Even if it actually did exist there’s no reason accrue expense to release it.  Just keep churning out chips that sell like hotcakes.  Mo’ money mo’ money.

wow...that sounds exactly like what Intel was doing while they were on top. Don't need to make better products while the competition can't catch up

 

who would have thought that AMD would turn into the exact thing i thought this forum hated and just have it brushed off.

 

 

[RejZoR]

Seems logical. Question is, will Zen 4 support AM4 or will it be AM5 already. Might be tempted to go with Zen 4 if it would still be on AM4. Just out of curiosity to actually upgrade CPU only, something that hasn't really happened since Core 2 Duo days when I upgraded from E4300 to E5200. And that was the last time I ever only upgraded CPU while keeping everything else. Though I'm quite happy with 5800X. It's a nice CPU so there is no real pressure to upgrade. It would just be curiosity thing really. Also depends on if there was any major performance or architectural gains.

[porina]

5 hours ago, leadeater said:

All this also assuming Zen3+ really was planned and actually was intended to be a product cycle. Nothing quite like rumors saying Zen3+ is going to be a thing, which is of course a rumor, then another rumor saying previous rumor might be cancelled implying that it was actually confirmed to be a thing in the first place 

 

Remember Zen3+ has never been on any product roadmaps, Zen4 has.

This is one of the more annoying parts in the community, where rumours are treated as facts and outrage expressed when a product that doesn't exist gets changed in some way. To best of my knowledge, AMD has never referenced Zen 3+ existing.

 

12 minutes ago, RejZoR said:

Question is, will Zen 4 support AM4 or will it be AM5 already.

It is a big question. They have the potential to put it on AM4 by having different IOD versions to the same chiplets, but as I speculated in another thread, they might have to do something different with Infinity Fabric to cope with the higher possible ram bandwidth otherwise the ram increases would be pointless. I hadn't considered backward compatibility in that sense. If an AM4 version were to exist, I don't think I'd want a crippled version like that.

[Doobeedoo]

Seems to be a better decision and approach really, especially with both, being a refresh and smaller gain, also shorter sell window before new gen with better performance gap.

[Kisai]

3 hours ago, Arika S said:

wow...that sounds exactly like what Intel was doing while they were on top. Don't need to make better products while the competition can't catch up

 

who would have thought that AMD would turn into the exact thing i thought this forum hated and just have it brushed off.

 

 

I don't think the reasoning is the same.

 

Intel has it's own fabs and thus produced 14++++++++++++++++'s for as much time as they could, getting lapped by TSMC and Samsung, which should have been some hubris. Intel buying capacity from TSMC actually makes it more expensive for AMD to use them since Intel could theoretically just buy all the capacity AMD needs.

 

It wouldn't work for more than one or two product cycles though, it's not like Intel could monopolize all the 5nm nodes just to stick it to AMD and Apple. Shortages started in 2015, not 2020. Manufacturers stockpiled, which had a 5 year knock-on effect, and then the tariffs and pandemic hit and they stockpiled again.

 

Intel should have been on 10nm on the 9th gen cpu's, and 7 or 5nm by the 12th gen. That's where we should be, but were not. Fortunately TSMC has more than enough customers to open new fabs... at least outside Taiwan where there's not a water or electricity shortage.

 

[Arika]

4 minutes ago, Kisai said:

I don't think the reasoning is the same.

 

Intel has it's own fabs and thus produced 14++++++++++++++++'s for as much time as they could, getting lapped by TSMC and Samsung, which should have been some hubris. Intel buying capacity from TSMC actually makes it more expensive for AMD to use them since Intel could theoretically just buy all the capacity AMD needs.

 

It wouldn't work for more than one or two product cycles though, it's not like Intel could monopolize all the 5nm nodes just to stick it to AMD and Apple. Shortages started in 2015, not 2020. Manufacturers stockpiled, which had a 5 year knock-on effect, and then the tariffs and pandemic hit and they stockpiled again.

 

Intel should have been on 10nm on the 9th gen cpu's, and 7 or 5nm by the 12th gen. That's where we should be, but were not. Fortunately TSMC has more than enough customers to open new fabs... at least outside Taiwan where there's not a water or electricity shortage.

 

if you look at the person i was quoting, yes, the reasoning is the same. Not to say that is what is actually happening, but for some reason they thought it was acceptable to sandbag because competition was shit, which is what people had been criticizing Intel for for a long time before ryzen

[Brooksie359]

53 minutes ago, Arika S said:

if you look at the person i was quoting, yes, the reasoning is the same. Not to say that is what is actually happening, but for some reason they thought it was acceptable to sandbag because competition was shit, which is what people had been criticizing Intel for for a long time before ryzen

Tbh I don't think Intel was completely sandbagging. It seemed like they were going to make some improvements once they switched to 10nm but unfortunately 10nm got perpetually delayed. I would wager if they had gotten 10nm up and running they would have switched off of skylake based architecture much earlier and been able to see the types of ipc improvements we see in rocketlake. 

[Bombastinator]

7 hours ago, Arika S said:

wow...that sounds exactly like what Intel was doing while they were on top. Don't need to make better products while the competition can't catch up

 

who would have thought that AMD would turn into the exact thing i thought this forum hated and just have it brushed off.

 

 

Yes.  Yes it does.  I’m not saying it’s good.  A company is going to act like a company though.  Expecting non-evil behavior out of companies is not reasonable imho.

[Bombastinator]

10 hours ago, TheReal1980 said:

I am guessing this will be a great year for Apple...

It’s been pretty good so far I understand

[StDragon]

12 hours ago, leadeater said:

Talked about and rumor is literally the same thing. Since AMD never confirmed it or place it on any roadmaps I wouldn't assume it was going to be a thing if supply problems didn't exist.

 

7 hours ago, porina said:

This is one of the more annoying parts in the community, where rumours are treated as facts and outrage expressed when a product that doesn't exist gets changed in some way. To best of my knowledge, AMD has never referenced Zen 3+ existing.

 

Fair enough. But that begs a question for me at least; where was the name 'Warhol' originally referenced from? Did someone make it up, or was it originally referenced in some official leaked document from AMD?

[b1k3rdude]

Well that's annoying as I was hoping to get at least another CPU refresh out of my very expensive X570.