Everybody always talks about how "when (if) crypto crashes miners will sell off their GPU's" but I don't remember them doing that last crash

[WillOfTheLand]

I was in the market last time crpyto "crashed", and yeah there were a few people who sold off their hardware, the small guys that had bought a few cards and a small personal rig to mine just for themselves. But there was no giant inflow of cards onto the market. How long are people going to keep fooling themselves thinking even if crypto crashes, there will suddenly be a flood of cheap used cards on the market.

[tikker]

7 minutes ago, DriftMan said:

when did that happen for you?

Bear market of ~ late 2018 to early 2020

11 minutes ago, WillOfTheLand said:

I was in the market last time crpyto "crashed", and yeah there were a few people who sold off their hardware, the small guys that had bought a few cards and a small personal rig to mine just for themselves. But there was no giant inflow of cards onto the market. How long are people going to keep fooling themselves thinking even if crypto crashes, there will suddenly be a flood of cheap used cards on the market.

The ones that I think are most likely to sell off are the people that FOMOed in, as they are most likely to be scared by a big drop and may want to get out quickly. Dedicated miners won't sell, because from a potential gains point of view, a crash is the perfect moment to actually start mining and stock up big time to prepare for the next bull market.

[Nayr438]

The Crypto Crash of 2018 did cause a influx of used Mining cards on the used Market. They were all over Ebay and my local Facebook Marketplace, I picked up a 1080 during this time for around $300.

[WillOfTheLand]

14 minutes ago, DriftMan said:

when did that happen for you?

 

8 minutes ago, tikker said:

Bear market of ~ late 2018 to early 2020

The ones that I think are most likely to sell off are the people that FOMOed in, as they are most likely to be scared by a big drop and may want to get out quickly. Dedicated miners won't sell, because from a potential gains point of view, a crash is the perfect moment to actually start mining and stock up big time to prepare for the next bull market.

I think it was more early 2018 into 2020, but yeah. 

 

[tikker]

3 minutes ago, WillOfTheLand said:

I think it was more early 2018 into 2020, but yeah. 

It's better to look at a log plot for these charts. That gives you a better idea of how big the changes actually are relatively, but yeah somewhere 2018 till mid 2020 or so.

[Middcore]

There were ex-mining Polaris cards selling for dirt cheap at least through the end of 2019. 

[RoseLuck462]

I bought the majority of my RX 580s from the last crash, was buying Red Devils, Sapphires, and ROG brands for $100-200, it was great. 

 

The shortages and markups back then were just not nearly as severe though.

[12345678]

frankly I'm selling now my mining gpus, because eth2 is likely to cause a crash, and by so many will flood the market with gpus Makin the price crash for a period of time, but since the shortage are still huge, that gpu price crash will not last for long

 

so I'm selling some gpus now, I do get more money, wait, I'll buy some gpus from dumb  people and continue mining; but that's only my supposition, we will see

[WkdPaul]

2 hours ago, RoseLuck462 said:

I bought the majority of my RX 580s from the last crash, was buying Red Devils, Sapphires, and ROG brands for $100-200, it was great. 

 

The shortages and markups back then were just not nearly as severe though.

There were old mining RX 570 8GB for $95-100 CAD locally, didn't buy any at the time and I do regret it. Not sure where the OP was looking, but I saw that on FB market place and reddit hardwareswap.

[Middcore]

1 hour ago, wkdpaul said:

There were old mining RX 570 8GB for $95-100 CAD locally, didn't buy any at the time and I do regret it. Not sure where the OP was looking, but I saw that on FB market place and reddit hardwareswap.

There are people on this forum who bought their last GPU before the first crypto boom, ignored the period after where 1070's were available below $200, and now that we're in another crypto boom and they happen to be ready to upgrade they insist that GPU's have been unbuyable for like ~5 years.

[WkdPaul]

Just now, Middcore said:

There are people on this forum who bought their last GPU before the first crypto boom, ignored the period after where 1070's were available below $200, and now that we're in another crypto boom and they happen to be ready to upgrade they insist that GPU's have been unbuyable for like ~5 years.

Yeah, can't wait for the market to calm down so I can replace my 1060 3GB ... got it for cheap right before the crypto boom. I passed on 1070's because while it was a good upgrade I didn't really need it (I mostly play MMORPG), and I preferred waiting for the next gen to get more out of my money (not the 20 series, that felt like not much more than a 1070-1080 for a too much money).

 

I got so fucked

[12345678]

8 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

I got so fucked

I shouldn't say it because I'm interested to get rid of my cards

 

but in june there might be a (momentarily) collapse of gpus prices, because of (some) miners deciding to sell hardware after eth2

 

but that might be only momentary, because the issues are on the production, not caused by miners

 

just saying it might

just a speculative thing

 

but it's likely, since a good part of mining community is based by dumb people who literally put everything they have to "invest" and if they do see a lows of profits they easily panic

[WkdPaul]

@12345678 yeah, I had a few "close call", I'm in a CAD Discord with a bot, got a few 3060 and 3060ti in my cart, but I wasn't fast enough to get to the checkout page.

 

A few people were able, so it's working, just have to be patient and lucky. But I don't really have time to wait in Discord for stuff to drop, so I've abandoned for now. What some are doing is buying anything that comes up and they later try to swap it with someone that has done the same but with another card (like grabbing an AMD card and then posting that they can exchange for an nvidia card, or vice-versa).

[Heliian]

9 hours ago, WillOfTheLand said:

I was in the market last time crpyto "crashed", and yeah there were a few people who sold off their hardware, the small guys that had bought a few cards and a small personal rig to mine just for themselves. But there was no giant inflow of cards onto the market. How long are people going to keep fooling themselves thinking even if crypto crashes, there will suddenly be a flood of cheap used cards on the market.

Well, for starters, all the cryptoiners who'll need to sell their cards to recoup losses or make a profit.  Most of them count their used gpu sales as part of the "profit" of mining and several have come on here and said such.  

Crypto mining already isn't a profitable business case, it's a speculative investment vehicle with no product, it wouldn't be smart to hold onto old hardware waiting for the newest coin craze,  newer hardware will always be key.

 

 

[Heliian]

1 hour ago, 12345678 said:

 

but in june there might be a (momentarily) collapse of gpus prices, because of (some) miners deciding to sell hardware after eth2

Not much I don't think as those people will desperately try to mine something else.  They're still going to ask ridiculous prices for used garbage too. 

The cracks are already starting to show, more people are scrutinizing cryptocurrencies and if it's going to be used for an actual currency then it'll have to be mainstream and stable, that was supposed to be the point.  It's turned into money laundering and other criminal activity and people trying to make a quick buck on speculation.  It'll all end eventually one way or another and the scalpers will move back to popular children's toys and whatever else they can get their greasy mitts on.

[tikker]

2 minutes ago, Heliian said:

Not much I don't think as those people will desperately try to mine something else.  They're still going to ask ridiculous prices for used garbage too. 

The cracks are already starting to show, more people are scrutinizing cryptocurrencies and if it's going to be used for an actual currency then it'll have to be mainstream and stable, that was supposed to be the point.  It's turned into money laundering and other criminal activity and people trying to make a quick buck on speculation.  It'll all end eventually one way or another and the scalpers will move back to popular children's toys and whatever else they can get their greasy mitts on.

People looking to make money, quickly or slowly, yes, very much so. Money laundering and illicit activity? Very small fraction. There are a bunch of other points besides being a traditional everyday currency. On that aspect it's completely accepted that Bitcoin will never be a practical currency. Ethereum wasn't meant to be a currency either. There cheap (some even feeless) and fast cryptos out there that aim to be monetary currencies (Stellar and Nano are my favourites at the moment). One reason I think people scrutinize crypto is because they only hear about the negatives, as that's what makes newsworthy headlines. "Bitcoin used to buy nukes" is much more exciting news than "Person transferred 1 billion dollars instantly and free with Nano". They are also mostly unaware that Bitcoin is just the top of the iceberg and for all intents and purposes long surpassed.

2 hours ago, Middcore said:

There are people on this forum who bought their last GPU before the first crypto boom, ignored the period after where 1070's were available below $200, and now that we're in another crypto boom and they happen to be ready to upgrade they insist that GPU's have been unbuyable for like ~5 years.

So glad I managed to get my 1080 Ti at MSRP. Best investment ever. It was not even intended for mining at the time, I just wanted to own a Ti card for once lol.

[Heliian]

38 minutes ago, tikker said:

Bitcoin will never be a practical currency

OK, what's it for then?  Just off market trading? 

39 minutes ago, tikker said:

scrutinize

It's not just in a bad way, if it wants to become viable it'll come under inspection and scrutiny from interested parties.  At the moment it's unstable and completely speculative.  This crap is driven by tweets now ffs.  

[tikker]

39 minutes ago, Heliian said:

OK, what's it for then?  Just off market trading? 

Store of value mostly, with the added benefit that Bitcoin still has a view of appreciating quite a bit (or depreciating, who knows, but seems less and less likely) over the coming years. It's still the most "reliable" and "stable" crypto to invest in, but has become too expensive to trade with. Average transaction fees were already something like $20, and in the current spike they're up to almost $60 at the moment making it wildy unattractive for small and even moderate transfers currently.

 

Bitcoin is "the one" that's why you don't see all the other Bitcoin clones being worth anything near it, for example.

 

39 minutes ago, Heliian said:

It's not just in a bad way, if it wants to become viable it'll come under inspection and scrutiny from interested parties.  At the moment it's unstable and completely speculative.  This crap is driven by tweets now ffs

That's true. There are a lot of pump&dumps happening indeed. The news is now covering Bitcoin (and Ethereum slowly) hitting these insane numbers which attracts a lot of new people among which there is a lot of (potential for) fear of missing out (FOMO) currently. They either invest way too much relative to what they can afford in the hopes of still being "on time" without realising the volatility, or are more tempted to buy 5000 of some random coin that is still $0.01 not understanding that it will never take off to the levels BTC and ETH are hitting now.

 

I think it's great that Bitcoin is seeing more adoption, but I also think this will (need to) expand to other cryptos soon as for anything besides buying a Tesla the transaction fees are just not worth it. We're still quite a bit away from mainstream crypto usage I think. As you say it's volatile (although stablecoins solve that problem) and simply not known enough yet.

[Kisai]

15 hours ago, wkdpaul said:

Yeah, can't wait for the market to calm down so I can replace my 1060 3GB ... got it for cheap right before the crypto boom. I passed on 1070's because while it was a good upgrade I didn't really need it (I mostly play MMORPG), and I preferred waiting for the next gen to get more out of my money (not the 20 series, that felt like not much more than a 1070-1080 for a too much money).

 

I got so fucked

I bought my GTX 1080 in April 2017 from NCIX, before the 2018 runup and subsequent crash, so I didn't need to buy another card. I bought it because I bought a 4K monitor in late 2016 and it was not a pleasant experience on any game with a GTX 760.

 

That said, it replaced a GTX 760, which in turned replaced AMD cards, which failed after a certain amount of time. The GTX 760 was already a large step up from the previous Radeon HD 7750, which in turned replaced a 5750 which literately died. So I replaced a GPU every 2nd card with the exception of the GTX 760 which was the only second-hand GPU I picked up (because the person who bought it bought their parts based on big numbers and likewise didn't realize it was underpowered for 4K in 2013.)

 

That said, It really annoyed me that no 30xx parts, at all, were available because it was due for an upgrade for a new build, so that new build plans have been canceled. I'm not paying highway robbery for a GPU alone, nor am I willing to pay these prices from OEM's for GPU's

 

 

Note that Canada Computers isn't even providing a way to build a computer, and trying to order them just leads to a perpetual "out of stock" notice.

 

 

 

Memory Express, likewise, can't even add it to a cart.

 

Despite that, if you try to search for any card, all you get are sites that are out of stock.

Best Buy, will be returned as the first result. No stock, Never any stock.

 

Newegg, zero available as well.

 

It has never, ever, been this bad. Before the 2018 crash, the prices were up, but nothing was out of stock.

 

Like, even the ebay scalpers are easily asking for 3x MSRP, if a 3080 is supposed to be $699USD, $875CAD is where the price should be +/- 100 depending on the day. Anyone selling these, and likewise anyone buying these new off eBay, are quite honestly, foolish. These are not PS5's. They are not collectables. 

 

Honestly, my gut feeling is that insiders that work at the warehouses for these stores are "buying them" before they ever get put into inventory.

[Mark Kaine]

yeah, no, in my experience this isn't true, there have always been  cards for reasonable prices on ebay etc after the crash, the real problem was most of them looked dodgy as hell, not even ebay ｍｏｎｅｙ back guarantee, stock photos, etc, so this was only really true if you're willing to buy under these conditions, which i am not , i rather bought a new  1060 for 350 on Amazon (which was "cheap" here  btw)  but availability especially of used cards was not the issue after the crash. 

[Kisai]

There's some price crashing right now, but I wouldn't expect this to mean much in the short term.

 

 

Like for actual stocks, multiple stocks that make up an index have to drop 20-30% to enter a bear market, and that's when things nose-dive off a cliff in stocks that are overvalued.

[Kisai]

I felt this was more amusing than anything:

No RTX 3080's till 2024.

 

With the shortage, I'm not sure that's even a typo. So I went and checked all the 3080's to see which ones had dates on them (spoiler, only a few did):

 

So... Zotac is more likely to be available the soonest, and ASUS available never.

 

Oh, and they are all out of stock. I'd still not want to pay 1199 for a RTX 3080, but gawd is it ever a pain in the butt to look online for stock and having these stores list product that isn't available, and at this point, isn't going to be available for 3 years.