How long did the last mining craze (2017-2018) effect on GPUs lasted for ?

[oldnick]

I am just wondering if anyone have a precise idea about when exactly did the mining craze of 2017 started effecting pc hardware (mainly GPUs) and when did it end and prices and availability return to normal

 

I know the current situation isnt exactly the same (becase of covid etc..) but I still want to know

 

[minibois]

It lasted until BTC and ETH significantly dropped, but even then it has a lasting effect on the market.

10-series cards higher than a 1060 were still hard to get for good prices and the AMD Radeon 500-series supplies and prices stayed high for a long time after too.

 

For the higher end cards, it really took until the next series came out for normal prices to return (inflated still if we look at price/performance, but normal-er).

[oldnick]

1 minute ago, minibois said:

It lasted until BTC and ETH significantly dropped, but even then it has a lasting effect on the market.

10-series cards higher than a 1060 were still hard to get for good prices and the AMD Radeon 500-series supplies and prices stayed high for a long time after too.

 

For the higher end cards, it really took until the next series came out for normal prices to return (inflated still if we look at price/performance, but normal-er).

yes I know but I am looking for dates and how many months it took, so we can compare the two situations

[Tristerin]

A few things occurred - but doesnt mean this is inclusive of all the "why's" - major block chains went above 4gb reducing hash rates significantly.   Also specific hardware was developed along the way (FPGA, ASIC) for mining that changed the value of GPU mining.

 

Its a rich history, I suspect you havent googled it yet (the same question)?

[oldnick]

1 minute ago, Tristerin said:

A few things occurred - but doesnt mean this is inclusive of all the "why's" - major block chains went above 4gb reducing hash rates significantly.   Also specific hardware was developed along the way (FPGA, ASIC) for mining that changed the value of GPU mining.

 

Its a rich history, I suspect you havent googled it yet (the same question)?

I did but couldn't find a concise or simplified answer  

[minibois]

6 minutes ago, oldnick said:

yes I know but I am looking for dates and how many months it took, so we can compare the two situations

I gave you dates, when BTC and ETH dropped last time.

Of course I don't know when/if that will happen now, so how would I be able to give you months now?

 

Plus, graphics cards like the 1080 Ti didn't drop in price at all, even after the crypto market drop, so I don't foresee 3080 and 3090 to drop hugely in price either.

Especially not in the new market, who knows what the second hand market will look like.

[Blademaster91]

4 minutes ago, CircleTech said:

It created a massive boom-and-bust cycle in the price of graphics cards. From beginning to end, it lasted about 18 months. 

 

In those two years inbetween, graphics card prices fell through the bottom. I remember a guy on this forum selling GTX 1070s that were used for mining in the classifieds section for $100 a card!

 

Of course the sell-off didn't last long (maybe 4 months). Prices returned back to normal for a couple of years until 2020 happened.

Wow, $100 a card? That reminds me of the $500 2080Ti's on ebay just before the mining boom. I kinda regret not getting one, or a few considering they're worth what they originally sold for.

[Moonzy]

there's one major difference between then and now

 

COVID, and thus the impact on manufacturing capabilities

consoles arent used for mining (yet) but they're still out of stock and price inflated to high hell

 

personally i dont have high hopes until mid 2021 at this rate

[Moonzy]

1 minute ago, DriftMan said:

@oldnick DON'T TRUST THIS PERSON, HE'S ONE OF "THEM"

if by "them" you mean miners, yes im a hobby miner that buys up some of the GPUs

 

that doesn't make anything i said false

perhaps my speculation, but it's clearly marked as so (by "personally")

[LogicalDrm]

Price-wise, its ongoing thing rather than something which would change in few years. Just look at RAM prices as example. 10 years ago you could get basic level RAM (equivalent to 16gigs today) for $50 total. Today you pay double for that. Same goes with GPUs. 10 years ago it was $250 for midrange gaming GPU. Today its double price.

 

Availability-wise, I think it was no longer issue when the next release came out. I do remember selling my old GPU for significant overprice and getting new as a snatch.

[Blue4130]

1 hour ago, oldnick said:

I did but couldn't find a concise or simplified answer  

And you won't because it's not a simple or concise problem. There are so many different factors that are affecting the price, and the two timeframes are vastly different.

[Uttamattamakin]

From what I can tell the effect never ended.  Every new generation of GPU brought improvements in hash rate and power efficiency that made it worth while to mine on them again.  The crypto miners, and other organizations that need their computing power will buy up all the supply at the source.   Either via contract with Nvidia or AMD or a more black/grey market way.  

The 300 or so that go to each major US city  and far less to the midsized cities are just the ones the slipped through the cracks. 

 

Specialized GPU's for mining will change nothing.  Heck. Might have better luck using software to read a frame buffer out of one of those output less mining cards Nvidia is making  than finding a real gaming GPU. 

[Monkey Dust]

There is such pent-up demand for chips, and finite fabrication capacity, I think the availability and pricing are going to be shit until next year. Even if crypto crashes again. 

 

Even car factories have stopped production due to chip shortages, it wasn't this bad last time.

[WkdPaul]

1 minute ago, Monkey Dust said:

Even car factories have stopped production due to chip shortages, it wasn't this bad last time.

Exactly, when even car manufacturers start having supply issues with IC components, you know it's bad and it's not a conspiracy to drive prices up.

 

The higher prices are a symptom of the issue, but then companies aren't angry about making money either. It's a win for them (their stuff is sold almost instantly, and they get to slowly raise the prices).

[Mark Kaine]

In Germany until September 2020.

.Then there was a short period of time where they actually sold 2000 cards *at MSRP* for about two weeks... after that prices skyrocketed and now you're lucky to find a rx570 for what a gtx 2070 "should" cost.

[Rym]

4 hours ago, Moonzy said:

 

 

personally i dont have high hopes until mid 2021 at this rate

I wouldn't have high hopes until mid 2022 the way things are going right now.

 

Maybe we'll get to use bots ourselves to snipe our 4080s from retailers before price inflates again? Hah, and I thought 1025 euro is crazy ( rtx 3080 price before and at launch). Now major retailers are selling them for 1850 euro, and they're supposedly selling. Well, they're going out of stock, but it's not known whether romanians buy them or the store is adding them to prebuilts. A big salary in romania is 700 euro (med assistants) while most people get between 370 to 510 euro. I'd be hard pressed to believe romanians buy these things at nearly 2k euro price.

[SAVE-12-HK]

new gtx1000 never dropped price since then

[Ar558a]

I think it depends how quickly the crash comes and how deep it is. I would be surprised to see cards around MSRP until summer 2022 but if the crash takes longer or is a more gradual decline it could take to 2023.

 

Alternatively maybe the crash never comes? Then we move to a world where a 60 series card is £500, a 50 series card is £400 and 30 series card is the new mainstream £200-250 card. Most people will be able to hang on to current hardware for  3-4 years before the 5030 or 6030 is better than there 1060 etc.

[Zodiark1593]

1 hour ago, Ar558a said:

I think it depends how quickly the crash comes and how deep it is. I would be surprised to see cards around MSRP until summer 2022 but if the crash takes longer or is a more gradual decline it could take to 2023.

 

Alternatively maybe the crash never comes? Then we move to a world where a 60 series card is £500, a 50 series card is £400 and 30 series card is the new mainstream £200-250 card. Most people will be able to hang on to current hardware for  3-4 years before the 5030 or 6030 is better than there 1060 etc.

In this case, PC gaming could be potentially imperiled. Many gamers will only stick to lighter games for so long, and hardware can also die. If PC hardware remains so highly inflated and lacking in availability, consoles are likely to retake the leading edge. No point developing for PC if gamers are unable to get ahold of faster cards.
 

Amateur and professional creators are probably the ones buying highly inflated scalper cards, as the price/performance is still much superior to going with Quadro/FirePro GPUs in video editing and 3d art. If there’s pent up demand in the creator sectors, I don’t expect prices to drop for a long time, even after a mining crash. 
 

Console shortages are not unprecedented. The PS2 launch saw significant scalping for some time, as had the Wii. If Sony/Microsoft  were so inclined, publicly requesting developers to continue to keep to the PS4/Xbox One as the lead platforms (until supply stabilizes) could deflate scalpers some, as gamers would be just as well served (for a year or so) by going with the PS4/Xbox One. A trade-in or rebate program where buying a PS4/Xbox One now qualifies for reduced PS5/Xbox X pricing later down the road could deal a grievous blow to scalping, and potentially attract former PC gamers. 

[StarsMars]

On 2/26/2021 at 7:48 AM, oldnick said:

I am just wondering if anyone have a precise idea about when exactly did the mining craze of 2017 started effecting pc hardware (mainly GPUs) and when did it end and prices and availability return to normal

 

I know the current situation isnt exactly the same (becase of covid etc..) but I still want to know

 

I don't think there is a cap to how much ethereum can be mined.

So it totally depends on when ethereum crashes or stops being profitable to mine.

If governments start getting involved in controlling virtual currencies.

If more silicon fabs like TSMC open or expand.

 

Other than knowing those things, it's all a guess.